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SOHO CHINA LIMITEDSS

SOHO CHINA LIMITED

0.67HKDD
−0.02−2.90%
At close at 08:08 GMT
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Stratostar
SPY situation;
1) If we close above $410.50 bull channel confirmed - not a bear channel.
2) Bear's next play is to get a double top at $410.50. Bears want market to lose momo around that point - if bull momo wanes at that mark it will bring in lots of sellers trapping bulls.
3) There were plenty of buyers above the $402, where bears were previously hoping for a double top. The hard selloff at market close yesterday put us back into the channel, dissapointing for bulls - keeping possibility open that we're in a rising wedge (bear channel)
4) Probably sidewas action going into FOMC next week. This news will probably determine what happens at the $410 mark.
Snapshot
Stratostar
Haven't had our nice follow through day yet on SPY, to confirm bull trend. We did blast through that multi-month bear trendline once again which seems to confirm that particular bear trend is complete no longer valid. Ideally we get upside breakout over $402 tomorrow (seems likely given the nice bull catalyst we got this evening TSLA) - longer it takes to get breakout over $402 and toward $410 more likely we're going to be in a new trading range rather than trending market - need to break out over $410.
Stratostar
We're runing at the top of the bull channel. Healthy pullback and consoldiation today. Three scenarios (1) Fresh momo - we break out of channel and race to $410 (next resistance) ... (2) We continue consolidation and/or pullback test the channel mid-line (or maybe old bear trendline but we've already tested the bear trendline -this morning - and it held as support - so less likely) (3) We re-test bear trendline again and this time it fails as support.

Scenario 2 seems most likely. Seem's to be a lot of agreement on $410 being next resistance.
Snapshot
Stratostar
Close over the bear trend channel and the 200 day MA. Do we get a follow through day tomorrow? What does SPY do at the $410 mark? Next pullback that holds over the bear trend channel and 200 day MA seems like good opportunity to add to exposure. We now have a clear "risk off" demarcation.
Snapshot