BITCOIN ANALYSIS Current Market Overview
Bitcoin Price Drop: Bitcoin recently dipped below $57,000, with significant fluctuations around this level. It hit $56,769 on July 4.
Liquidations: The market experienced $305.43 million in liquidations, mostly from long positions, including $92.6 million from bitcoin long positions.
Market Sentiment: The sell-off has caused concerns, with 121,992 traders facing liquidations.
Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price
Potential Large Sell-offs:
Mt Gox and German Government: These entities might release a significant amount of bitcoin into the market, potentially increasing supply and driving prices down. Analyst Neil Roarty suggests that the introduction of 200,000 bitcoin could lead to further price declines.
Miners’ Capitulation:
QCP Capital notes that bitcoin miners show signs of capitulation, similar to patterns seen in previous significant price bottoms, like in 2022 when BTC was at $17,000.
Options Market Optimism:
Despite the downturn, there is positive sentiment in the options market, especially for Ethereum (ETH) with a focus on September and December expiries. Interest in ETH calls indicates a potential price increase.
Liquidation clusters for BTC and ETH are skewed to the topside, suggesting potential for short squeezes and price rebounds.
Potential Market Movements
Supply and Demand Imbalance: If the Mt Gox and German government sell-offs occur, supply could outstrip demand, leading to further price drops.
Capitulation as a Bottom Indicator: Miner capitulation has historically indicated price bottoms, suggesting that the current downturn might precede a recovery.
Options Market as a Leading Indicator: The optimism in the options market could hint at a potential rebound, particularly for Ethereum, which might also positively affect Bitcoin.
Strategic Considerations
Buying Opportunities:
Near Historical Bottoms: If the market shows signs of reaching a bottom similar to the 2022 hashrate drawdown, it could be a good buying opportunity.
Options Market Signals: Monitor the options market, especially ETH calls, as a positive signal for potential price rebounds.
Selling Strategies:
Anticipating Large Sell-offs: Be cautious of the potential large sell-offs by Mt Gox and the German government. Selling before these events might prevent losses.
During Short Squeezes: If the market experiences short squeezes, consider selling at these peaks to maximize profits.
Conclusion
The current market conditions for Bitcoin are influenced by potential large sell-offs, miner capitulation, and optimistic signals from the options market. Careful monitoring of these factors and strategic buying and selling can help navigate the volatility and capitalize on market movements.
BBBTCUSD Futures Contract (Jul 2025)
108,928.55USDR
+517.65+0.48%
As of today at 12:01 GMT
USD
No trades
BTCUSD04N2025 trade ideas
BTCUSD - RE-ENTRY / Price reverts to the initial entry priceHello Traders!
I will re-enter this trade after BTCUSD took me out of the transaction on 0.
Most probable we will see here a bullish momentum.
Trade Safe!
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CME - All BTC Gaps FilledAll BTC gaps have been filled on the lower timeframes.
Gap #1 was created around GETTEX:64K before we dropped to a low of $58k. Price filled this gap and failed to climb above. This caused BTC to drop lower to fill our lower gaps.
This second gap was created upon the impulse to the upside to fill the first gap. This was filled and BTC continued to descend to fill gap #3 that was created when price made its recent low.
Now all three gaps have been filled. We will be monitoring this chart to see if any additional gaps will be created this weekend.
We have a CME Gap to Fill - Below current PAI have not Looked at the CME GAPS Chart for a while and here it is
WE HAVE A NEW GAP TP FILL..2 in fact but the lower one is so small it may not be worth the workl to fill it.
90% of Gaps get filled and given the dominance that CME Futures has now in the Bitcoin Market, I see no reason why this one will not also be filled.
So, PA is very likely to descend to lower line to Fill the Gap
Depending on Bull pressure, PA may turn before
Top Line at 62085
Bottom line at 60190
I have placed a SPOT BUY at 60200
Lets see if it fills.
NOY ADVICE JUST MY OPINION
$BTC range bound, 6 month period almost overGood Morning!!!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is still in a range.
It is currently higher from repurchase but not it is not going up in strength, trading this portion unless we see a change.
What is needed to turn fully bullish on #BTC?
RSI over 50, which is the orange arrow.
$ flow positive trend, which is the grey arrow.
#Bitcoin has 2 more weeks before the 6 month, 2nd phase, is up.
Spot BTC bleh too.
BTC - A Healthy Pullback or a Sign of More to Come?Hey fellow crypto enthusiasts! Let's dive into Bitcoin's recent price action and what we can expect in the coming months.
The Correction Phase: Why It's Not All Doom and Gloom
First off, don't panic about the current correction phase. After the halving, a correction was not just expected. It’s healthy! Think of it as Bitcoin catching its breath before the next big sprint. We're seeing an ABC correction pattern, which savvy traders will recognize as a typical and necessary, market movement.
Timing the Market: When to Make Your Move
So, when’s this correction likely to wrap up? Our crystal ball suggests somewhere between July and August/September. This is the perfect window to dollar-cost average (DCA) into your positions. By buying a fixed dollar amount of BTC at regular intervals, you can average out your entry price, reducing the impact of volatility.
Long Positions: Entering long positions in the 50000-52245 range could be a smart move, considering the support levels and the bullish outlook post-summer.
Key Levels to Watch: The Golden Zone
Here’s where it gets interesting. The big kahuna level to keep an eye on is 50K. Not only is it a psychological level, but it’s also where several technical indicators converge. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the smaller wave sits at $52,245, while the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the entire 491 day bull run is at $51,690. This zone also hosts an old trading range, known as a bullish order block. Translation? This area is packed with historical significance and potential support.
Fibonacci Levels:
Fib 0.618 of the smaller wave is at $52,245.
Fib 0.382 of the entire 491-day bull run is at $51,690.
Ichimoku Cloud: Your Support Safety Net
On the daily timeframe, the Ichimoku cloud’s edge (custom settings) aligns around the 50K mark, offering additional support. It's like having an extra safety net below a tightrope walker.
Altcoins: The Unsung Heroes
Don't forget about altcoins! Many have pulled back significantly, with some seeing 60-80% corrections. This is a golden opportunity to DCA into altcoins and position yourself for potential gains. Remember, during market corrections, altcoins often offer lucrative entry points for those looking to diversify.
Wrapping Up: The Bigger Picture
While the correction phase may seem daunting, it’s a natural part of the market cycle. The key levels around 50K-52K are not just numbers, they’re strategic entry points. With the support of the Ichimoku cloud there’s a lot to be optimistic about as we move towards the end of summer.
What do you think? Are you positioning yourself for the end of the correction? Drop your thoughts and let’s discuss!
With a clearer understanding of Bitcoin's correction phase and the key levels to watch, you're now better equipped to navigate the crypto waters. Happy trading!
BTCUSD - Long Trade Confirmation !!!Hello Traders!
As you can see in the last analysis on BTCUSD, I was expecting the retracement until de PDL executed a long trade. At the moment I see a perfect opportunity to execute this trade as we have a reaction and we have a retracement. I expect a bullish move until the price of 66.700, the price where I have the Profit target.
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"BTC Bull Run: Can TrendMaster Pro Predict a Surge to $63,500?"Utilizing the TrendMaster Pro buy alert,Will BTC push back to $63,500.00 ?
**Disclaimer:**
The information provided in this analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for every investor. The performance of past strategies or alerts, such as the TrendMaster Pro buy alert, does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author of this analysis is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information.
Bitcoin Live Trading - Price Action and Volume Patterns Volume patterns in Bitcoin live trading can provide valuable insights into market trends and potential price movements. Here are some key volume patterns to watch:
1. **High Volume with Price Increase**:
- Indicates strong buying interest and can signify the start of an uptrend.
- Often accompanied by bullish sentiment.
2. **High Volume with Price Decrease**:
- Suggests significant selling pressure.
- Can indicate the beginning of a downtrend or a correction in the market.
3. **Low Volume with Price Increase**:
- May indicate a weak rally with less conviction among buyers.
- Often a sign of an impending reversal or correction.
4. **Low Volume with Price Decrease**:
- Indicates a lack of selling pressure.
- May signal a potential bottoming out and possible price reversal.
5. **Volume Spikes**:
- Sudden increases in volume can indicate major news or events impacting the market.
- Important to analyze the context and price movement alongside volume spikes.
6. **Volume Divergence**:
- When price moves in one direction but volume moves in the opposite direction.
- Often signals a potential reversal in the price trend.
7. **Volume Trends**:
- Consistent increase in volume over time can signal strengthening trend.
- Consistent decrease in volume can indicate a weakening trend.
Understanding these patterns can help traders make more informed decisions. Additionally, combining volume analysis with other technical indicators can provide a more comprehensive view of the market. Do you have any specific patterns or scenarios you're interested in exploring further?
Follow Us for more insights!
BTCUSD / POTENTIAL BULLISH BREACKOUT Hello Traders!
I expect a bullish move on BTCUSD H4, after retesting the bullish breakout at the price of 60500.
As we can see, the price returned to PWL and now I expect a reaction, meaning a good opportunity to execute a trade.
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BTC 2024-2025For the past year another bullish cycle was incepted in BTC. Once again, it started from the key support zone, which represents miners' breakeven price. The strong bullish market sentiment last year was supported by a risk-on environment in financial markets:
Supressed dollar sterngth, decreasing oil and gas prices
Increasing buybacks in the US corporate sector
Strong results of the "magnificent seven" and anticipation of the AI revolution
Fed provided liquidity to mitigate the consequences of the SVB collapse, and decreased the rate of quantitative tightening (QT)
All this provided favorable liquidity conditions in the markets, setting the stage to propel the crypto market. Now that BTC has reached an all-time high (ATH), and on-chain metrics look very strong according to Glassnode, the question remains: will this bullish cycle follow the same pattern as after previous BTC halvings, or will it be somewhat different? As for now I see the following possibilities:
Best-case:
Confidence: 69%
Description: BTC will continue ongoing bullish cycle as during the past cycles. However investors should be aware of the possibility of temporary consolidation before ATH break out (similar to what we saw in spring-summer 2023 before last autumn bull-run).
Min pull-back price: ~50K$
Max target price: >130K$
Base-case:
Confidence: 21%
Description: False ATH breakout will provoke a deeper pull-back before continuation of bullish cycle. In case the price starts sliding down, investors should check how the market reacts on the 50K price zone. Market inability to break ATH after such consolidation, will provoke a deeper pull-back.
Min pull-back price: ~35K$
Max Target price: ~100K$
Worst-case:
Confidence: 10%
Description: False ATH breakout will provoke strong bearish trend to last year low and miners breakeven price range. This will require a black-swan event and rapid deteoration of financial market's sentiment. This is very unlikely because the US government will try all possible means to keep markets strong before the POTUS election.
Min pull-back price: ~20-25K$
Max Target price: ~80K$
Conclusion:
The best-case scenario looks the most probable (69%), there are some factors which may come into play in the foreseeable future and enact downward price pressure:
Having BTC and ETH ETFs approved, investors and traders might follow a psychological pattern of selling the news.
This could be exacerbated this autumn by tighter monetary conditions due to a prolonged period of high rates before the Fed is forced to start easing despite sticky inflation.
Additionally, the BTC halving event might produce a lesser impact during this cycle, as newly mined coins will constitute only a minor share of coins already in circulation.
So there is a slight chance (21%) that the market might behave differently than past bull cycles. Over the course of the year I will continue posting updates on whether the market confirms this outlook, and I'll keep you updated throughout the year if the alternative scenarios unfold.
Are you bullish or bearish?I could make an argument for Bitcoin rallying, but also for it to sell off. And to be frank, it has to do with more about what happens in the future in the markets. Do risk assets rally? Bitcoin would rally. Do risk assets sell off from profit taking and growth reasons? I think Bitcoin would sell off. Do stocks move down from a banking or debt crisis? I think Bitcoin would rally. There are even more situations to consider, but the fact is that we don't have enough information.
Technically, I could argue either at this time. Bitcoin is in a long term "cup and handle" pattern which could target well above the 100,000 level in the coming months. However, a a break of the 50% retracement of the last leg higher and channel support at 56435 (would be the handle support too) would suggest a much bigger pullback is in store.
So unless you have an edge at the moment, the 56435-72000 rage (handle) looks to be what traders should be watching near term.
$BTC calls have been $ for months now, here's anotherIn less than one month it will be 6 months when CRYPTOCAP:BTC topped.
Historically, this has been an important time frame for the asset.
#Bitcoin is getting to the major support level faster than anticipated, yellow line.
The time between big cyan colored arrows is IMPORTANT.
#BTC close to oversold & TONS of $ has been taken out.
Getting closer to a bottom.
