SELL SELL SELL - LOW RISK TRADESHORT TRADE : Entry : SELL @ 285.25 Target : 280.50 Stop : 286.50 Risk Level : LOW RR ratio : 1:4Shortby agnelmoses1
USDHUF - Long term uptrend exhausted. Time to focus on 277I see more signals which suggest that those who have been long term bullish for USDHUF should start to reconsider the upside of their strategic long positions. Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is bullish, but as price could not make a higher high so far this year (since the March top above 290), Chikou Span got very close to past candles. Tenkan and Kijun stay very close to each other and both lines are flat, which show averages have converged, and the bullish momentum has been lost. In fact it has become a wide range, with top side area at 285-290, and with lower supports at 279 (Kijun Sen), 268 and 260. - Heikin Ashi signal also warns us for decreasing buying power: we had three small body candles ard Kijun Sen, the last one has boths upper and lower wicks and its body is red. haDelta has built a firm negative divergence,and actually it is trying to dip below zero line. Long term Ichimoku trend followers, who bough the Kumo breakout ard 225 and has never sold on any swings would place their ultimate TP trailing stop at Kijun Sen minus some buffer, so somewhere ard 276-277. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is neutral, with weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross, Kumo overshade and Chikou at past candles. Look at the long term bullish trend line! It is very close to price, and also stays in line with Kumo and 100 WMA. It makes clearly 276-277 extremely important. - Heikin Ashi is bullish biased again, but if Price can't climb back above Kijun Sen (284), then it can quiickly change, as in that case haDelta negative divergence will persist. I don't know if it will break now, but it has some increasing chance, so better to pay attention. Short below 277!Shortby Kumowizard1
USDHUF - Noise, undecision, but maybe some bearish biasI am becoming more and more bearish biased generally on USD, at least looking forward to the next few months. The more USD crosses I look at, the more I feel we are ahead of a major global USD correction. Of course it will be all about the big question of "FED rate hike, hike later, no hike?". My personal feeling is that we will not see a hike in June, maybe we will see a small hike in September. In this case all those heavily loaded USD longs will start to unwind partially their positions, so USD will become more volatile and will be under pressure between May and August. However I try not to follow my feelings, but rather what charts call for, so let's have a look at USDHUF chart this time. Daily: - Major bullish trend, which started from May/2014 can remain valid, but some correction can happen if Price gets another push below the Kumo cloud. - Ichimoku setup is absolutely neutral right now. Price is trading around the equilibrium level of 280. All averages (Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou A and B stay together at this level, with some confusion, as Tenkan is above Kijun (medium bullish) but Senkou A points down and is below Senkou B, which means future kumo is a bit bearish biased now. - Heikin Ashi has been giving mixed signals. haDelta/SMA3 has been swinging around zero line. We need to see some more action. Let's have a look at the lower time frame. 4H: - Ichimoku setup is totally neutral. Price is swinging around equilibrium, all average lines are flat and stay appr. same level, Chikou is at past candles. - Price has been trading in a symmetrical tightenning triangle -> waiting for a break - DMI/ADX is neutral, says no trend in place - Heikin Ashi setup is short term bearish biased A Price close below 276,50 would be a bearish trigger. In that case USDHUF can retest the very important horizontal support ard 267.by Kumowizard2
USDHUF - It's slowly getting more bearish, add to shortsDaily: - Red HA candles, haDelta below SMA3, both below zero line. - Oscillator turned bearish, MACD is bearish too. - Supports (also possible short term swing tgts) are 268,80 and 262,50 4H: - The consolidation may finally end in a bearish Kumo breakout. Tenkan/Kijun medium bearish, Chikou Span - Candles are not decisive enough (tight range in last few days), but haDelta and Oscillator suggest more bearish move is ahead. - DMI is bearish with increasing ADX - 271 may be a bit harder to break first, we may see one spike from there later to retest Kumo before further bearish acceleration towards 268 or lower kevels.Shortby Kumowizard1
USDHUF - Consolidation, undecision, major move aheadDaily: - Ichimoku setup is long term bullish - Heiken Ashi candles are rather neutral. two reds, two greens, two dojis, one green -> consolidation pattern - haDelta is still bullish biased as long as it's above zero line, Oscillator is bullish too, but MACD is still in bearish cross - Price should break above range top within next few days to be able to continue bullish trend, otherwise a break below Tenkan Sen and the steeper trendline would bring a correction to one of the lower support levels - Lower suppourts are: Kijun Sen and horizontal support ard 268,50-269 and Senkou B at 261 4 Hrs: - The picture shows a top consolidation before the next major move happens. It is a tightenning triangle, where we have three lower highs and two higher lows so far. - Ichimoku picture is neutral, Tenkan is below Kijun, but Price is above both of them and above the Kumo. Kumo is thin and flat. Chikou Span is swinging around Price candles - DMI is neutral/bearish (ADX is low, so not a strong signal right now) - Last two Heiken Ashi candles and haDelta shows bearih bias, but for a real counter trend to start and bearish momentum to accelerate, Price should break below 272,70 and later below 271. That would be a valid Kumo breakout confirmed with a Chikou Span bearish cross below the Kumo too. Given the macro picture in Hungary (with main focus on positive C/A), the still persisting risk appetite for all non EUR denominated European bonds, and the increasing chance for a general USD correction, somehow I give higher chance for a break on the lower side of the triangle and a correction to come in USDHUF.by Kumowizard3
USDHUF - Long on a retracement Weekly chart here A bit dangerous because of the resistance area ahead, but nothing bearish on the chart. The daily chart rejected value once again, with a very bullish candle. Value and major support are overlapping. Entered a small long position. My stop is under the bullish candle, and it is a soft stop.Longby vlad.adrian334
USDHUF - Sell for short term pullbackIt seems some general USD correction may take place now, while HUF itself was under pressure due to Ukraine-Russia tension, which also may ease a bit. This means probably we'll see some bigger swing down in EURHUF. Daily: The long term Ichimoku setup is still bullish, but MACD has some negative divergence already compared to Price. Both MACD and Slow Stoch may give a short term sell signal. The targets for the pullback are 236 (Kijun Sen), and if it gets deeper then probably 234 (shorter term trendline support), or in extreme case to the Kumo support of 232,50. 4 Hrs: DMI bearish cross with high but decreasing ADX. Ichimoku is still bullish, but most of the components got flat, which also shows the momentum is decreasing. Lower key levels are: 237,50 - 238,50 / 235,80 / 232,50 (strong support)Shortby Kumowizard110
Exotic Pair USD/HUF at Tipping Point?If price stays below White ML & Lower Parallel on Major Schiff Fork by Friday good short opportunity. If they fall below green Reaction Line.....Odds go up. Let's keep a close watch.Shortby Timing_is_key441
USDHUF - Sell the local top? (republ. with 4 Hrs chart)Daily: the trend is bullish, Ichimoku components support the trend, with mentionning Chikou Span which may hit the Price wall soon unless we see a further momentum push Price higher within next 5-6 days. Why I think a pull back is possible? Slow Stoch giving a sell signal soon, with MACD turning bearish again. Also DMI converging a bit with ADX decreasing a bit. There is better chance for USDHUF to build some local wave top here. 4 Hrs: Double top? Chikou Span hits candles, further break up is getting unlikely. It will either move sideaway 236,50-238 for a while, or with next attempt will break the 100 WMA and will attack the Cloud. What can not go up, will more likely come down, at least a bit. Support is 232-232,50, which is appr. in line with Daily Kijun Sen too. I try to open some short in between 236,80-237,50, but only small, as on the other hand fundamentally there's not much what could support HUF really in short-medium term. The whole trade will rather depend on the general USD correction, than on local HUF news.Shortby Kumowizard330
Bearish Wolfe Waves pattern on USD/HUFWeekly WW pattern with proper price action and a nice resistance. Risk: 2% Reward: 30% R/R ratio: 15Shortby UnknownUnicorn5843413130
Sideways Consolidation Then Continue To Completion Of GartleySideways Consolidation Then Continue Down To Completion Of Gartley Pattern. Below is the correct c point of the gartley pattern.......Shortby johnsmith78330
USDHUF - Looks topish a bit, flag break soonDaily: Long term Ichimoku setup is bullish. But it has printed a Hangin Man and a Doji in last two days. It can be either a further bullish flag building, or a confirming signal that the top is building here ard 235-236 for now. Slow Sotch is bearish, MACD gave a sell signal. Today Hungary's GDP was higher than expected. (3,9 % vs 3,5 % exp.) Equilibrium price is 229,50-230. USDHUF may have a pull back down to the trendline or to the equilibrium support level. 4 Hrs: Price got stuck in a tight triangle, and trading in the Kumo (consolidation). Upper break would be above 235,30, lower break below 233,70. Chikou Span is at Price, and ADX dropped below 20, with tight DMI lines. All these tell us undecision and consolidation. The flag break can happen in any directions, with almot 50-50 % chance. However given the daily MACD and Slow Stoch, the chance of a dip (correction) maybe a bit higher. If you don't have any position in USDHUF, it is not wise to play the upper break and go long, as risk-reard after such a rally is not the best. However for a swing short it can be good below 233,70, with 230-231 tgt. Also if you have longs still, 233,70 is the level to watch for final take profit.by Kumowizard10102
USDHUF - A dip to 223-224 support is possibleThis move and its depth depends on two components. EURHUF and EURUSD. Fundamentals: After yesterdays NBH comment the pressure on HUF started to ease. Fundamentally I don't see any possible local trigger, that could blow up the HUF now in next few months (Autumn might be a different story, but thats far away). - NBH finished with easing cycle, they gave a forward guidance to keep bmrk rate at 2,10 until end of 2015. This Guidance itself is a joke I think, Hungary is a very small and open economy, still depends a lot on external factors and external funding. My view is that they will be forced to hike rates a lot sooner than mid 2015. They think and act like the FED :-). The only problem will be that they are cornering themselves, and their rythm on timings will be a problem at some point as FED and BoE start to hike. - The conversion of private sector FX loans to HUF is off the table for now, will happen only next year. New info about the discount exchange rate, and about the details of the burden will come from Government in November. Until then NBH reserves are safe. - C/A is still in surplus. Short term OK. However here we have to add that trade balance surplus started to decrease a bit recently, and with giving the money back to households next year, consumption will increase a lot. Import will jump. This will have a negative effect on FX first, and as later CPI will very quickly pick up due to consumption surge and base affect as well, very soon NBH will be forced to hike rates again. Technicals: Daily: Big inside bar pin bar yesterday, with bearish MACD and Slow Stoch signals. Ichimoku setup itself is still bullish, but ADX is too high, and when it is so, it often brings at least a consolidation. Supports are: 226,85 / 224 / 220,70. There are two scenraios now. As EURHUF will likely stay offered, USD huf will depend on EURUSD moves and corrective spikes more. If EUR weakens ag. USD, then USDHUF will rather show sideaway consolidation, with no real selling momentum. However if we see a spiky correction in EURUSD bearish trend, that means USDHUF will quickly break the Kijun Sen and will likely retest the Kumo 4 Hrs: There are initial bearish signs, but the trendline and the Kumo held so far. DMI turned bearish, ADX looks like turning up, which means a possible gain in bearish momentum is ahead. We have a weak Tenkan/Kijun cross, with Chikou Span below price candles now. Clearly the horizontal support area 226,50 - 227 is in line with daily Kijun Sen. Once we see a break of trend and Kumo, confirmed with break of horizontal key support area too, we will quickly see the 224 or maybe 223 handle. Suggestion: Take partial profit on USDHUF (also on EURHUF) longs for now in spikes and get ready for full profit taking on first support breaks. Increase HUF weight in portfolio again for short term. Going short as speculative position? That is upto your trading profile and risk tolerance. This pair is really volatile and hard to trade.by Kumowizard112
USDHUF - Where is the buy zone? Long if you see some more dip!Daily: Ichimoku setup is bullish - Price is above Kumo, T/K up, future Kumo bullish. The only missing part is Chikou Span to come over the cloud too. Also Senkou B (orange line of the Kumo) is flat both actually and in the future. This often attracts the price, so looking at 4 Hrs setup too, it is not impossible that we may see this swing down to ard 222 level. Slow Stoch and MACD also bearish on daily chart, which means the USD correction will affect USDHUF further as well. Yesterday I got a call from one of my friends, who really shocked me with an information. He had to price a 5 year USDHUF forward (and/or 5 yr ccy swap). Guess how much is the fwd points for five years! It is ard 290-300, so basically that means 3 big fig is the "cost of carry"... lt me say again, for 5 YEARS! No more comments. It costs nothing any more to short HUF. And this is just one small piece of the puzzle, besides ultra loose monetary policy and the fiscal policy of the country which is defenately for the weak HUF. Sooner or later HUF will blow up. By the way there's NBH rate setting today... again... 10 bps cut is likely, meanwhile Hungarian base rate is already below Polish. This alone doesn't mean anything, you can set a base rate anywhere, but then again something is wrong in the formula, so risk premium should be priced somewhere. My view is that it should be reflected in the FX. So let's hope for more correction and then go for the buy side. Support level is 221,50 - 222,50 area. I enter a price alert sub 223 and will re-check the tech setup again.Longby Kumowizard0
USDHUF - Waiting for a clear Kumo break on top sideThen we'll have a new tgt of 228-232 again. As you see, this has been less bearish, what's more, has been printing mild bullish signals since mid May. T/K bullish, Kijun retests three times held the price, may be trading out of the Cloud soon. MACD, DMI, Slow Stoch bullish. Please see the link below to EURHUF. So if someone thinks about HUF shorts, I think the game is rather USDHUF. At least, now that looks technically a bit more prudent. Recommendation: Buy it on dips between 221-222, add to longs on break above 224,80.Longby Kumowizard1