Natural Gas Futures repeats 2020-2023 cycleNatural Gas Futures is going to 1.84 and then starts the new growth cycle according to Elliott Wave Theory.
TFM1! trade ideas
Are new annual lows expected for gas prices?Are new annual lows expected for gas prices?
U.S. natural gas futures prices fell below $3.5/MMBtu after reaching a two-week high of $3.64/MMBtu on Oct. 27.
According to the latest EIA data, inventories stand at 74 billion cubic feet, a figure well above the five-year average. In addition, average U.S. production hit a new record with 104.0 billion cubic feet.
But what was the reason for last week's uptick?
A new weather forecast indicates that there will be significant cold weather in the United States in November, thus increasing demand for gas for home heating.
It is not uncommon to see erroneous weather forecasts, and besides, both Europe and the United States have large natural gas reserves.
This is one of the main reasons for my pessimistic stance on gas.
Studying the futures curve, we notice a strong upward shift.
This indicates that there is a significant contango effect, which makes any long-term gas purchase transaction negative.
It is important to remind investors that there is a viable alternative to trading natural gas futures.
Natural Gas Storage Natural Gas Storage
If you are considering investing in the gas sector, there are options that are easier to understand than futures.
You can consider buying shares in companies involved in gas production and distribution, which offer improved returns and are a safer option than the futures market.
One major company you can turn to is Antero Resources (NYSE:AR) Corporation, an independent leader in the development, production, and exploration of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil in the Appalachian basins.
Their three main areas of operation are focused on the exploration, development, and production of these fossil fuels.
In technical terms, the current situation can be a trap for shoppers.
As many know, I am opposed to an approach based solely on technical analysis.
The decline in gas prices has been accompanied by a sharp drop in trading (-95.38 percent).
However, this brief movement is not supported by trading volumes, which are needed to confirm a further decline.
As a result, investors using technical analysis do not seem concerned.
Technical analysts agree that the situation remains bullish.
In addition, the close above the fast and slow-moving averages provides further confirmation of the positive short-term trend.
Natural Gas-Daily ChartNatural Gas-Daily Chart
At this time, I disagree with the technical analysts.
If you want to invest in gas in the medium term, you should accumulate bearish positions as I am doing.
The main reasons behind this decision are record production and forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather, which could lead to lower prices as happened last year.
Seasonality usually affects natural gas prices, and last year we saw a significant reduction during the last quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023.
Personally, I expect this trend to continue.
In addition, it is important to constantly monitor the natural gas stock data published every Thursday by the EIA to get a more accurate understanding of the situation.
According to my forecast, we could expect to see new lows in the coming quarters for natural gas prices.
Natural Gas DXY GOLD SILVER USO Price ForecastNatural Gas DXY GOLD SILVER USO Price Forecast
Natural Gas Natgas Stock forming equilibrium pattern
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Natural Gas - Elliott Wave CountNatural Gas - Elliott Wave Count
this is an update to the previous view.
Yesterday, the market completed the 4th wave of its price movement cycle and has since entered the 5th wave. This represents a continuation of the current trend, and we can anticipate a positive recovery in the upward direction once the 5th wave is completed. This signals a potential opportunity for investors to consider taking advantage of the market's recovery trend.
In light of this, we recommend refraining from taking short positions in a bull market. Instead, it would be prudent to wait for a reversal and take a long position.
Please note that this information is solely for educational purposes, and it is essential to exercise caution when trading.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS FOREXCOM:NATURALGASCFD MCX:NATURALGAS1! CITYINDEX:NATURALGASCFD PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS SKILLING:NATGAS
Natural Gas Cooling Off Into Heating SeasonNow’s primetime if you’re an energy trader. Winter forecasts continue to roll in and cold fronts are sweeping across the CONUS. Naturally, it is also a time to eye both the fundamentals and technicals of Henry Hub Natural Gas. Most novice investors simply analyze the continuous prompt-month of HH NG. Having spent years on an energy trading floor and advising clients on how to handle their energy procurement needs, however, I know that watching one key contract offers the most insight.
Winter demand peaks in January in the natural gas market. So, I prefer to analyze trends in the January contract. The trend is not all that bullish as volatility does its usual thing – rising as winter approaches. I see support in the $3.46 to $3.50 zone – a breakdown below that range could trigger significant downside. I see resistance in the $3.90 to $4.00 range. For now, with price drifting toward the lower end of that area, it could be worth a swing long, but I would not be playing Jan ‘24 NG from the long side right now when looking out to expiration.
Also consider that seasonal trends are not compelling either. If you don’t follow Equity Clock, I suggest you take a look. November and December are dreadful months, on average for the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG). Hampered by bearish contango at times, the Nov-Dec stretch is the worst two-month performance period in UNG’s 15-year history, with particularly bearish price action from Thanksgiving through the end of the year.
Natural gas might jump There uncertainty in Russia and relation between kremlin and Wagner is sour, this can results in high volatility and specially on energy sector and precious metals.
if the situation is not contained quickly, I believe that on Monday the price of the Natural gas will jump due to uncertainty, it might reach 3.5 or 4.0.
Please be careful with volatility
NG target $3.0 and $3.6Natural Gas has been consolidating since Mar 2023 and has formed a round bottom. I expect NG to hit the first target $3.0 within next 1-2 weeks and then consolidate at those levels before the hitting target $3.6, which will be a conjunction of two resistance lines blue and white. Let me know your thoughts in comments.
Natural Gas Price Forecast DXY OIL GOLD SILVERWelcome to the everyday how to make money online trading with Natural Gas Technical Analysis show, where I give you guys support & resistance levels to potentially play off of. As well as both sides perspective of a bear and a bull to give us a better understanding of where our trades are currently and not have a bias
- Natural Gas Natgas Stock forming equilibrium pattern
#naturalgas #xauusd #dxy #xagusd #natgas #naturalgastechnicalanalysis #technicalanalysis #tradingstrategy #daytrading #naturalgasanalysis #naturalgastrading #natgasanalysis #uso #crudeoil
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#NATURALGAS LONG TRADE IDEA SETUPGreetings Folks,
today i have prepared a setup of NATURAL GAS on MCX
the analysis is as follows
- the price is looking for a minor reversal
- currently trading at a very important zone
- wait for a retest for entry
dont play with fire, always use a predefined stoploss
NATURAL GAS Ready to buy at the bottom of the Channel Up?Natural Gas (NG1!) is trading within a logarithmic Channel Up pattern since the April 14 Low. The current bearish leg is one step before testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but the bottom is located just below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). That trend-line has priced the last three Higher Lows (September 26, September 06, August 24), so we are ready to buy there and target the 0.786 Fibonacci at 3.250, which has been a standard rebound target since July. The most optimal buy signal though since April 13 is when the 1D RSI enters its Support Zone.
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Natural gas its future trend - A cleaner energyParis Agreement in 2015 with a "net-zero emissions" mission by 2050.
Is the world ready for it?
Who is doing it correctly and will the rest able to follow?
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures and Options :
Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 per MMBtu = $10.00
Code: NG
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NatGas: Dived in 🤿 🌊The price of NatGas has now reached the turquoise target zone between $2.98 and $2.77. Here we expect a turning point with the low of the turquoise wave (ii), ideally at the 78.60% retracement of the zone. From there, the price should move higher in large steps until it completes the orange wave (iii) at $4.60.
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