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GWMQ2031 trade ideas

Govt Intervention, State Acts leads to Supply Shock InflationThesis: The Impact of Government Intervention on Energy Prices: A Decade of Stability Disrupted This thesis examines the historical trends in natural gas and oil futures prices over the past decade, highlighting the relatively stable energy prices in the absence of geopolitical conflicts. It argues that government interventions, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, have led to significant market disruptions and inflationary pressures in energy sectors. The analysis culminates in the observation that recent regulatory promises, exemplified by the Trump rally, signal a potential return to pre-intervention stability. Introduction Energy prices have long been influenced by a myriad of factors, including geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and governmental policies. This study focuses on natural gas and oil prices over the last ten years, revealing a pattern of stability interrupted by government actions. By analyzing price data, market responses, and the effects of interventions, we can better understand the relationship between policy and energy economics. Historical Context Stable Prices Prior to 2020 Analyzing natural gas and oil prices from 2013 to early 2020 reveals a period of relative stability. Prices fluctuated within a predictable range, driven largely by market fundamentals rather than external shocks. Impact of COVID-19 Responses The outbreak of COVID-19 and subsequent government responses led to unprecedented disruptions. Lockdowns and economic contractions caused demand to plummet, resulting in a temporary crash in prices. However, the recovery phase brought about additional complexities, including inflationary pressures as economies reopened and supply chains struggled to adapt. The 2022-2023 Price Explosion A notable surge in energy prices occurred from 2022 to early 2023, driven by a combination of pent-up demand, supply chain issues, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The inflationary trend was exacerbated by the perception of scarcity, largely fueled by government policies rather than fundamental supply issues. Case Study: The Trump Rally Immediate Market Reactions Following the Trump rally, where he promised to reduce regulations and increase domestic drilling, both oil and natural gas prices showed a marked decline within hours. This response illustrates the market's sensitivity to perceived shifts in policy that favor increased supply. Conclusion This thesis posits that oil and natural gas are abundant resources that, when left to the market without interference, do not contribute significantly to inflation. Instead, it is government intervention, through policies and responses to crises, that creates volatility and price spikes. A return to a more laissez-faire approach could stabilize energy prices and mitigate inflationary pressures, reaffirming the importance of understanding the intricate relationship between energy policy and market behavior. Future Research Directions Further investigation into specific regulatory impacts, comparative analyses with other commodities, and the long-term effects of policy shifts on energy independence would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics at play.
NYMEX:NG1!
by garycardone
1
Natural Gas: Inverse Head & Shoulders targets $4.67The series of three valleys with the lowest bottom in between shaped notorious Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern in Natural Gas futures chart. It's bullish reversal pattern. Price eyes to break above the Neckline to trigger the pattern. Target is located at the size of the Head added to the Neckline break point at $4.67. Invalidation is below the trough of Right Shoulder at $1.88 Indicators support this bullish pattern: 1) RSI retested the midline and bounced up 2) Price retested 52-week MA and bounced up
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by aibek
NATGAS The Target Is DOWN! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on NATGAS and concluded the following: The market is trading on 2.525pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 2.384 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
NG, prepping for a multi weekly gain come December 2023NG based on monthly data is registering very significant net buy volume at the current price range. Seller's strength is certainly fading out based on thinning price volatility this past few days / weeks -- as shown on yellow price lines on chart. NG is currently sitting at a strong major support at 2.0 to 2.5 area, a 1.0 FIB discount level -- this is where most buyers converge. Initial trend shift has been spotted at the present price range. Spotted at 2.50 TAYOR Safeguard capital always.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by JSAL
9
Natural Gas still coiling! breakdown or breakout?Hello Traders In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today NATGAS analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ForexMasters2000
Natural Gas is Ready For a Commercially Driven Bull MoveNatural gas is nicely setup for longs if we get a confirmed bullish trend change on the daily. -Extreme commercial long positioning (most long they've been in the last 3 years) - bullish. -Investment advisor sentiment very bearish - which is actually bullish. -Undervalued vs gold & treasuries - bullish. -ADX under 40 while commercials got extremely long - bullish. -Bullish spread divergence between front month and next month out - bullish. -Small specs at extreme in short positioning - bullish. -True seasonal & some cycles are not supportive of going long, but these are the last things I look at. Enough indicators are supporting longs that I'm not going to worry about this. -Bullish momentum divergence has triggered on some high timeframes, implying much higher prices are on the cards for Natty. There is also some smaller bullish weekly divergence currently setup (but not confirmed). Have a good week.
NYMEX:NGF2025Long
by Tradius_Trades
Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart. Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside. Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels. Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out. There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring. Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea. Disclosure I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys Thanks for reading! Not Financial Advice
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ZachSap
Natural Gas still coiling! breakdown or breakout?Hello Traders In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today NATGAS analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ForexMasters2000
Smart Money's Secret Signal - Commercials Loading Up on NattySmart Money's Secret Signal: Commercial Traders Are Loading Up on Natural Gas The natural gas market is displaying compelling signals that suggest a potentially significant bullish trend change on the horizon. Through careful analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and several other key market indicators, we're seeing a convergence of bullish factors that warrant close attention from market participants. Commercial Positioning at Multi-Year Extremes Perhaps the most significant indicator is the current positioning of commercial traders, who are now more long than they've been in over three years. Commercial traders, often considered the "smart money" in commodity markets, tend to have the most comprehensive understanding of supply and demand dynamics. Their extreme long positioning is a powerful bullish signal that shouldn't be ignored. Open Interest Analysis Confirms Bullish Outlook Recent weeks have shown a notable increase in open interest concurrent with price declines. This relationship between price and open interest becomes particularly meaningful when we examine who's driving the increase of OI. In this case, the increase in open interest is primarily attributed to commercial traders building long positions – a highly bullish indication that suggests strong hands are accumulating positions at current price levels. Contrarian Indicators Support the Bullish Case Several contrarian indicators are aligning to support the bullish thesis: -Investment advisor sentiment is currently very bearish, which historically has been a reliable contrarian indicator. -Small speculators are showing extreme short positioning, and this group tends to be wrong at market extremes. -Natural gas is undervalued when compared to historical relationships with gold and U.S. Treasuries. Technical Confirmation Signals The technical picture is adding weight to the bullish case: -The Average Directional Index (ADX) has triggered a buy signal, dropping below 20 while commercials shifted to extreme long positioning. -A bullish spread divergence has emerged between front-month and second-month contracts, implying immediate commercial demand for the front month, which is bullish. -A major weekly bullish divergence has recently confirmed, suggesting potential for significantly higher prices. Market Structure and Timing While these indicators paint a compelling picture for higher natural gas prices, it's crucial to understand that this analysis doesn't necessarily call for immediate long positioning. Rather, it suggests that the market is fundamentally "setting up" for an upward move. Traders should wait for confirmation through a daily bullish trend change before considering positions. The Power of COT Analysis in Trading The Commitment of Traders report remains one of the most powerful yet underutilized tools in market analysis. Understanding how to interpret this data, particularly when combined with other technical and fundamental indicators, can provide traders with a significant edge in the markets. While many traders focus solely on price action or technical indicators, the COT report offers unique insights into the positioning of the market's most informed participants. Ready to master the art of COT analysis and gain access to professional-grade market insights? Reach out to us today to take your trading to the next level. Risk Disclaimer IMPORTANT: The analysis provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. Trading natural gas futures, options, or any other financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. The market analysis presented here represents the opinion of the author based on the data available at the time of writing, but markets are dynamic and can change rapidly. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The indicators and analysis techniques discussed in this article may not work in all market conditions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision. Before trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. It is strongly recommended that you conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. You should also consult with a licensed financial advisor or broker regarding your specific situation. The author and the trading community mentioned may have positions in the securities discussed and may trade in these securities at any time.
NYMEX:NGF2025Long
by Tradius_Trades
Natural Gas Prices Rise By 2%According to Reuters,US Natural Gas Price Climb 2% To 2 Week High On lower Output Soaring Global Gas Prices." October 25th, 2024. You can see according to this article above the Natural gas industry is expecting a bull market Not just in the US but around the world. Now look at the bull-bear balance of power below the chart of NYMEX:NG1! I have adjusted it to 2 Days in order to get a sentiment of the market within 2 days.. The time for entry is when you see a bearish sentiment on a weekly trending chart. So how do you catch a weekly trading chart? this is where you need to learn about the rocket booster strategy.. If you want to know : -weekly trends -down trends -up trends Then you need to master the rocket boost strategy. To learn about this strategy checkout the references below. Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer:trading is risky you will lose money whether you like it or not please learn risk management and profit taking strategies
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by lubosi
Natural Gas Is The #1 Commodity To WatchThe week on my end was pretty ruff someone i know had a funeral, and it was a sad moment. Even though i thought about how we as people need to take advantage of every opportunity That we have access to. When you look at this chart, you will see that natural gas found a bottom and started rising. Do you remember my "Top 13 IronWatchlist"? On the 2nd Of November am going to review it Infact its now going to be the "Top 9 Ironwatchlist" So on the 2nd of November am going to show you the "Top 9 Iron Watchlist" and Natural Gas is one of the commodities on this "Top 9 Ironwatchlist" The reason I have now refined this watchlist is based on my goal which is to catch the major market trends of 2025 So save that date. Now if you look at this chart you will notice the rocket booster strategy The rocket booster strategy has 3 steps.. If you would like to learn more about this strategy check out the references below. But one thing you should take note of is that the price in this chart NYMEX:NG1! Is above the moving averages.. Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer: Trading is risky you will lose money whether you like it or not Please learn risk managment and profit-taking strategies.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by lubosi