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UK NBP Natural Gas Futures

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GWM1! trade ideas

Nat Gas midweek Recap: 3/5/25 Trump trumps the fundamentals! Wow!!! What a week. I stayed up late Sunday night to see the early model runs print, which printed back to the colder, Weekend model ideas, to close my puts. I woke up seven hours later to a rally in NG back to the 3900 level from 3770! But knowing that the Trump tariffs were to take place yesterday, my belief was that there would be a great deal of speculative panic in the market. Which can go either way! I did sit out Monday to gauge the market to see what could possibly be moving such a move. After the midday models printed back to a bit of a warmer solution, I knew that a short squeeze was on after price spiked for the day. I did take a short position after the run up Tuesday after the price had spiked and was beginning the first of many rollercoaster rides! I did not close any of my positions out due to the price not hitting my 4150-418 target today, but my belief is that this is a short covering rally due to overall uncertainty. My belief is still that the third week of this month will begin to consistently print cold into mid-April. Knowing that there is now a new upper price target above 4500, this looks very, very promising. But this has been a great trading week if you are able to get on the right side of the trades, but for me, I can wait until the big speculators take some big profits this week. I am still waiting for my target back down to below the 4150-4180 to exit my short and renter a long for the coming cold. Heating demand had little to do with buying this week, as the 15-day U.S. and European outlooks trended warmer Sunday night and a bit cooler today. Both with a large jump in daily prices. This week’s large price swings reflect an uncertainty among investors about as they contemplate many inputs, including tariffs, geopolitical tensions, uncertain weather forecasts, consistent storage deficits. The large gains earlier in the week and in the mid-day New York today have primarily been due to short coverage, from the remaining shorts in the market. Coming into this week, natural gas speculators were less short than they have been in almost a year. This tells me that we are probably short-squeezing the remaining positions. There was news on the online industry forum Enelyst that today’s giant spike was due to a large fund liquidation due to a margin call from Monday and Tuesday’s large price move. The curse of the margin! U.S. markets appear to be shocked by the real enactment of tariffs, as many investors had priced in some amount of skepticism due to Trump’s delay of tariffs earlier in February. Trump did follow through with his 10% tax on Canadian oil and gas, with Canada stating it intends to enact retaliatory tariffs in 21 days if they are not removed. Despite an estimated 1.3 Bcf/d drop in Lower 48 gas production due largely to pipeline maintenance events, Wood Mackenzie estimated that pipeline imports from Canada plunged to 4.5 Bcf/d Tuesday from 6.2 Bcf/d Monday as the import levies took effect. Since Canadian imports account for a relatively minor share of the larger U.S. market, Industry experts posted “tariffs alone are unlikely to cause significant increases in price, especially at the Henry Hub,” the G&A team said. “We expect natural gas’s price movement for today and the past couple of days to be based on non-fundamental dynamics in large funds covering short positions after initial movement on trade war fears.” However, “the near-term situation only tells part of the story,” said Pinebrook Energy Advisors’ Andy Huenefeld, managing partner. “The market appears to be shifting to panic mode due to the massive storage deficit against a backdrop of underlying fundamental market risks. “With inventories set to exit the winter at a deficit of more than 700 Bcf to year-ago levels, the market is staring at an uphill battle to bring stocks back to healthy levels heading into next winter.” He added, “If inventories were to grow at the same rate as last summer, from an expected bottom near 1.5 Tcf, stocks would top out in October at less than 3.2 Tcf. This would be dangerously low heading into an uncertain winter and an extremely bullish development for the U.S. market.” Huenefeld also noted that “demand for LNG could easily be as much as 2.5 Bcf/d higher than year-ago levels throughout the summer.” Higher gas prices should coax producers to increase output. However, a shrinking coal-fired power fleet and growing intermittent renewable generation could limit the potential for price-induced demand destruction in the power sector, he said. As for the heating demand outlook in North America, midday weather data “maintained a couple chilly weather systems sweeping across the northern and eastern U.S. late this week through early next week with lows of 0s to 20s for stronger national demand,” NatGasWeather said. “This includes the southern U.S. cooling several degrees as well.” Models showed the March 11-16 period as “not nearly cold enough to intimidate,” the forecaster added. The data favored “a closer to seasonal U.S. pattern March 17-20 as temperatures become near normal over most of the U.S., although quite far out in time and where changes are likely.” Wood Mackenzie estimated U.S. LNG feed gas flows at 15.3 Bcf/d Wednesday, versus the recent seven-day average of 15.3 Bcf/d. Dutch Title Transfer Facility prompt month futures fell 13% this week. After the European benchmark surged on Monday in the wake of a contentious meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Wow this all makes no sense!!!! Bullish new, bearish news, what to do!!!!! The overall market trend is in a bullish state. But do not let the emotional side of the past few days let you forget that the fundamental picture will come back into view eventually. Tomorrow’s EIA report should come in somewhere around normal for the time period. Trump again is back peddling on his tariff threats, look at the second 30 day hold on the car companies and now ag sector announced later today. Continue to enjoy these wild daily swings and hop onboard the price swings. But remember Friday is coming and there are profits to close out for the week on the 70 cent move this week. I am committed to holding my puts entered at the peak Monday until the price settles down to the 4150-4180 level. I will stay disciplined and follow my path and not let others emotional appeals and move sway my plan. Reenter and let the weather turn, where there will be no talk of any warming in the models, or a possibility of the withdrawal season being over. We are almost there, then it is time for Round two, the shoulder season. Keep it burning!
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by NrG_Trader
26
Nat Gas Pre Report Idea: 2/19/25 Today I exited my call options, earlier than planned. I had originally planned on exiting my calls sometime before the market opened premarket, New York, on Thursday. But the two days of short covering has led to such a massive move that it prompted me to take my profits early. Fundamentally I am looking at the same thing the big boys are looking at. The artic cold is here, production is down because of freeze offs, LNG at historic rates, big EIA withdrawal tomorrow, contract rollover Tuesday, yada, yada, yada (sounding like a broken record already!) But this is what has moved the price, plus the shorts being squeezed for the last two days (can't wait to see the COT report Friday!) And NG traders love to sell the rally. So with the expected warm up next week, and the weekend approaching, I have been talking about selling my positions ahead of the mass exit before Friday. So I always keep the phrase in the back of my head, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered!" So I think a $1.00 move in the price is rich enough for me. So I exited my positions this afternoon. As planned, I entered into a 5 block of $4.250 putts that I will hold over the weekend. I am expecting the price to fall back to 3735 level, which is at the 9D SMA on the NGH25 contract. At which time I plan to exit. I continue to believe that the market is a bit over extended at the moment. The price has moved above the upper SD of the BB on the continuous contract, and blowing past the 3 SD level of the BB on the current contract. On the continuous contract the 100% fib level has been reached, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, and beginning to show signs of divergence, and the RSI on the current month contract is way into overbought territory. I am firmly in belief that March will be colder than averages, but it must be remembered that the days are getting longer and the HDD going lower. We are five weeks out from the end of the withdrawal season and spring will eventually come. But fundamentally we are in a different place than the previous two years, and can expect higher pricing going into the shoulder season. Which I will begin to discuss in a few weeks. But for now, I took my profits, will ride the price down with the warmer weather coming next week, and will reenter sometime the middle of next week, probably right before next weekend. These have been fantastic weekends to hold over, if your taking the correct position! Which I believe is the case this weekend also. So good luck and fortunes to all. Keep it Burning!
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by NrG_Trader
3
NATGAS What Next? BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The market is trading on 3.819 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 4.073 Recommended Stop Loss - 3.667 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NLong
by AnabelSignals
2
NATURALGAS BREAKOUT WATCH: BULLISH MOMENTUM?📊 Natural Gas Detailed Analysis – 1HR Timeframe 📊 Pattern Formation & Breakout Potential: Natural Gas has been trading within a falling wedge pattern, a bullish reversal structure, indicating potential upside momentum. A breakout attempt is visible as the price is trying to sustain above the wedge resistance. Key Observations ✅ Resistance Zone: 343 - 345 (previous supply zone, acting as resistance) ✅ Support Zone: 330 - 335 (previous accumulation area) ✅ Volume Spike: Increased buying interest indicates strong demand near the lower levels. ✅ EMA (55): Currently acting as dynamic resistance near 342-343. A sustained breakout above this could trigger a further upside move. 🎯 Target Levels: First Target: 350 Second Target: 354 Extended Target: 360 (if momentum sustains) 🛑 Stop-Loss Strategy: Placing SL below 338 ensures a safe risk-reward ratio in case of a false breakout. A breakdown below 330 invalidates the bullish setup. If price breaks above the resistance zone and sustains with strong volume, it can trigger bullish momentum towards 350-354 levels. However, failure to hold above resistance can result in sideways consolidation or a pullback before the next leg of movement. Disclaimer: Traders should watch price action closely and wait for confirmation before entering positions. 📢 Stay alert for market developments and manage risk accordingly! 🚀🔥 #NaturalGas #TradingAnalysis #Breakout #CommodityTrading #MCX
MLong
by Shalvisharma5
1
Henry Hub Rally Poised To Extend as Tailwinds Hold StrongHenry Hub Liquified Natural Gas (“LNG”) prices are roaring back, surging in February as frigid temperatures, falling inventories, and soaring LNG exports fuel a bullish rally. With US storage dipping below the five-year average for the first time since 2022 and technical indicators flashing strength, does the rally have more room to run? LNG RALLIES AS COLD WEATHER FUELS DEMAND AND TIGHTENS SUPPLY CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (“CME LNG Futures”) have surged 26% in February, rebounding from a 16.2% decline in January. The rally has been driven by rising exports, falling storage levels, supply disruptions, and colder-than-expected weather. January’s decline was surprising, given that U.S. temperatures averaged 29.2°F in January (0.9°F below average, around -1.56°C), the coldest January since 2005. This resulted in the average daily gas consumption reaching 124.4 Bcf, which is 12% higher than the five-year average, according to the EIA . Prices initially climbed 10.2% from 03/Jan to 24/Jan in response to strong demand, but a late-month selloff erased gains as forecasts turned milder. February saw a swift rebound as colder-than-expected temperatures pushed heating demand beyond expectations, fuelling a price rally. European gas markets added further support, with Dutch TTF prices hitting a two-year high on 11/Feb amid freezing weather, Norwegian supply disruptions, and rapid storage depletion. However, European prices have eased recently due to Russia- Ukraine peace talks, milder forecasts, and discussions on EU storage policies. LNG EXPORTS RISE AMID GROWING GLOBAL DEMAND US LNG exports surged in January, driven by cold temperatures, depleting reserves, and Europe’s shift away from Russian gas. The US exported 8.46 million metric tonnes (412 Bcf) of LNG in January 2025, with 86% heading to Europe—a sharp increase from 69% in December reports Reuters . However, exports remain below the record 422.9 Bcf set in December 2023. Source: EIA Meanwhile, the latest EIA data (updated till December 2024) shows that US LNG exports rose 0.6% YoY in 2024. Export volumes are poised to rise further, supported by Trump’s energy policies easing LNG infrastructure development. Gas flows to export terminals have increased, averaging 14.6 Bcfd in January, and expected to reach 15.6 Bcfd in February. Gas flows are well above the levels seen in Q4 2024, October (13.1 Bcfd), November (13.3 Bcfd), and December (13 Bcfd). A key advantage for US LNG is the absence of destination clauses, allowing buyers to redirect shipments based on demand. Even if Europe does not fully wean off Russian gas, growing U.S. export capacity ensures flexibility to serve other markets, particularly Asia. INVENTORIES FALL BELOW 5-YEAR AVERAGE; EIA RAISES HENRY HUB PRICE FORECAST Amid colder-than-expected weather and rising LNG exports, LNG storage levels have fallen more than anticipated, dropping below the five-year average (2020–2024) for the first time since 2022. Source: EIA Data Storage fell below the five-year average in the week ending 24/Jan and remained below since. As of the week ending 21/Feb, inventories were 11.5% lower than the five-year average. Weekly storage declines have exceeded analyst expectations for four consecutive weeks, indicating stronger-than-expected demand. Source: EIA According to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January withdrawals from underground storage totalled nearly 1,000 Bcf, 39% above the five-year average. The agency expects inventories to end the withdrawal season (Nov–Mar) 4% below average, citing higher consumption and flat production through Q1 2025. Source: EIA STEO In response to tightening supply, the EIA raised its Henry Hub price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 20.7% and 4.8%, respectively, compared to prior estimates. TECHNICAL INDICATORS SIGNAL SUSTAINED BULLISH MOMENTUM With bullish fundamentals supporting Henry Hub prices, technical indicators also signal an uptrend. Monitoring the 9-day EMA/21-day EMA cross helps identify trend shifts for day trading. A golden cross, a bullish signal (9-day EMA above 21-day EMA), indicates upward momentum, while a death cross, a bearish signal (9-day EMA below 21-day EMA), suggests weakening price action. The 9-day EMA crossed above the 21-day EMA on 18/Feb, forming a golden cross. The widening gap suggests growing bullish momentum. However, the MACD has turned negative after a strong bullish trend. Meanwhile, the RSI hovers at 50.39, down from its monthly peak of 66.60 & below its moving average of 56.66. Source: TradingView TradingView’s technical analysis dashboard also indicates a bullish trend. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS For the week ending 18/Feb, managed money’s net long positions in Henry Hub natural gas (futures & options) increased by 40% WoW, marking a second straight weekly gain. Long positions grew by 14.4% to 241,541 lots, while short positions inched up 0.2% to 137,674 lots. Source: QuikStrike Long positions have risen steadily since 11/Feb, while short positions remain unchanged, implying a growing bullish sentiment in the market. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Multiple factors continue to support Henry Hub prices, including cold temperatures, rising LNG exports, expanding US LNG capacity, and falling inventories. Adding to the bullish outlook, near-term production declines are expected to tighten supply through the remainder of winter. With these fundamentals in play and strong technical signals, natural gas prices may have further upside potential. Portfolio managers and traders can capitalize on a bullish LNG outlook by tapping into CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures. These contracts offer the same exposure as standard Henry Hub futures but at 1/10th the size, providing enhanced accessibility and more precise risk management opportunities. This paper posits a long position in CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (Apr 2025) expiring on 26/Mar (MNGJ2025) with the following trade setup: • Entry: 3.75/MMBtu • Target: 4.25/barrel • Stop: 3.45/barrel • P&L at Target (per lot): +500 ((4.25 – 3.75) x 1,000) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -300 ((3.45 – 3.75) x 1,000) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.67x CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Investors can learn more about how to access these micro products by visiting the CME Micro Products page on the CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NLong
by mintdotfinance
Nat Gas Pre-Open Report: 3/2/25 Nat Gas futures dropped 8.5% this week, primarily due to a decline in heating demand and a continuation of the weather models printing below average degree days (DD) for the upcoming 15-day period. This weekends model runs were showing promise for a colder 8-15 day period, but were wiped out with Sunday’s midday models runs. The US models printed a modest 10 HDD warmer while the Euro printed 1 HDD colder. Which now put the two models in close to perfect agreement for the upcoming 15-day heating demand period, warmer! Both are predicting over 35 HDD warmer for the upcoming period. What was interesting to see was Saturday’s and early Sunday’s run show a coder shot coming in the 10-15 period. The models are beginning to see the cold pattern developing that I have been discussing for the back half of March and early April. The big news from the models the past four days have been the developing SSW event, but more importantly the effect it is beginning to have on two major Teleconnections, the NAO and the AO. I had briefly discussed these back in January, and the effect they had on the January frigid cold it helped bring to the US. I do discuss them in today’s video. I did hold my puts (shorts) over the weekend, with crossed fingers! Seeing the models trend colder and the Teleconnection trending colder, due to the upcoming SSW event, I almost chewed my finger nails off. But thankfully the models have a hard time with the synoptic physics of the atmosphere, and until they do, I will take full advantage of others only having the vison of the numbers they print out. I think the first big support we will see is at the 3685-3700 level tonight. I do believe that NG will gap lower tonight. Will it gap to the 3685-3700 level? We will see. But I am looking for 3685-3700 by open tomorrow for the NY open. Tonight’s models will be important to see if the models pick up the longer rang pattern change influenced from the SSW event. If there is momentum through the 3685-3700 level, next up will be the 3550 level. I discuss the technical reasons why I think these number are important in the video, but believe we are closer to the models picking up the coming cold than continuing to see the warmth. I am preparing to reenter with a block on long call position once I see the models confirming the upcoming cold after the March 15th period. There is reason to believe that if the models do continue to print a warmer period that the price could fall all the way to the 3330-3350 level. I will have a watchful eye on the daily weather models for verification. For if this breaks the 3350 level, then watch out below!!!! Storage should continue to drop, compared to the 5-year average, with the upcoming 3 EIA reports. Which should continue to be a bullish catalyst for the upcoming shoulder season. There is reason to believe that if the SSW event unfolds, and the heating season continues through the first three weeks of April, we just might have a very short shoulder season. As discussed last week, years that had a SSW event in March and April, tend to have a very warm May, which will jump us right into the Cooling season. So, with LNG continuing to export at daily records, storage continuing to drop, we just need an addition push to keep the bullish momentum going. And personally, I think we will see that later in the month of March. Production is a bearish catalyst now, with today’s production at 106 BCF/d. But there are too many demand side factors that are increasing faster than the overall increase in production. We will continue to monitor the heating season until draw season ends. Then it will be onto storage deficits, pipeline maintenance, coal-to-gas switching, nuclear power plant maintance shutdowns, verse the upcoming rig count and field activity. But that is for another month or so. Enjoy the video. Have a great day and good fortunes! Keep it Burning!
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by NrG_Trader
3
NATGAS Massive Short! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4.257 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 3.892 My Stop Loss -4.468 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NShort
by AnabelSignals
3
2/27/25: Nat Gas Report day/weekend set up:The video goes over my reasoning for the cold back half of March and front of April. The models do not see it, but I do!!! I show a good graphic of price vs storage (natgasweather.com). And as we shall soon see, it going to be all about storage in about six weeks!!! Today’s report was in line with industry experts and their projections for a larger than average withdrawal of 261 BCF of NG, bringing total storage to 1840 BCF. This more than 400 Bcf below last year’s bottom of 2,259 Bcf. They are also below the five-year average for end-of-winter storage of 1,870 Bcf. Storage inventories at 1,840 Bcf have already been drawn down by nearly 2,100 Bcf since the start of winter. That is more than 600 Bcf faster than last winter’s drawdown during the same period. As shown, the inverse relation between storage and pricing should keep prices elevated through the shoulder season. The increase in heating demand, electric power load, and historic LNG exports are eating into exiting supplies, as producers continue to show restraint and discipline. Last week EQT released their quarterly guidance stating that they do not plan to increase rig activity and will continue to throttle output on a day to day basis to meet spot demand. They are following a program of “tactical restraint”. EQT Corp. is not looking to invest in natural gas production growth in 2025 as it expects demand to eventually outpace supply and push prices higher in the coming years. The strategy differs from the one Expand Energy Corp. stated today. That it plans to add 600 MMcf/d of natural gas production by the end of the first quarter as part of a broader strategy to grow output and extend the reach of its marketing as fundamentals improve. After curbing output and delaying turning wells to sales last year in response to stagnant natural gas prices, the company plans to bring online 90 wells by the end of March as demand has strengthened. Most of this gas is headed to the Gulf coast to feed LNG facilities. Unlike EQT, who serves North East US and Mid-West US demand centers. Who are under supplied and have a lack of pipeline infrastructure. So mid and long-range pricing look positive for NG, but it is the short term where our bets are made. So, in the short term the weather will play a dominant role in the price structure. I expect a delay in the cold coming for later March and April, but my belief is still there, below average cold. My previous target for entry was $3.65 to renter my long position. Although earlier this week I had waivered after the weather models started to print a colder period for March 11-15, and was looking to enter a bit higher to $3.80-$3.85 level, but has since backed down. It is looking that the Tropical forcing is going to delay the SSW event talked about here by a week or so. It is still showing up in the long range, but the shorter range is starting to print warmer. I am now of the thinking that the original idea at the $3.65 level is the place to enter my longs. Once the models pick up the SSW event influenced cold around day 13,14, and 15. I’m back in long again! I entered four $3.85 puts Monday night after exiting my March puts and have held onto them after seeing the models run warmer for the next 15 days. I will decide tomorrow if I will exit them or hold them over the weekend. I entered at the $4.30 level and know when to walk away with money in the hand, but I will still wait until tonight’s and tomorrow’s mid-day runs to assess. If I do decide to hold over the weekend I will let it be known. Happy trading and good fortune Keep it Burning!
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by NrG_Trader
7
Nat Gas Report, Contract Rollove Day: 2/25/25The week has traded a bit stronger than expected, but the future contract rolls over tomorrow. And today there was a great deal of settlement positioning before rollover. As seen in the jump in volume at the expiration window timeframe. It is still expected that tomorrow there will be a great deal of selling into the strength of the pricing. The range of the 20-Day Bollinger Band for the March contract is more than $1.50. Last year it was closer to 30 cents. There were a great deal of contracts to settle with futures. Tomorrow we see a reversion to the mean. I closed my putts last night, at the 3930 level. I did not expect the strength that we saw today begin last night, but I had my target in sight and took action. I am now waiting for the futures to rollover, some profit to be taken and then to enter my longs for the month. I was looking at the 3650 level on the upcoming April contract, but with the Models starting to see the cold coming, like discussed, I believe my new entry point will be 3800 on the April contract. Good luck and good fortunes. Keep it burning!
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by NrG_Trader
3
Nat Gas Video Idea 2/24/25: Recap of the Sunday night print ideaThis video goes over the reasoning and verification for my ideas that I posted last night. Price has moved as expected, hit the low of the morning just a hair above the 3900 level. I'm watching the midday HDD prints as I type and it is looking to continue to verify for the short term (two week) period and the long range (3-6 week period). I am still going to exit when the March contracts hits 3750, and enter the April contract at 3640. Enjoy the info. Keep it Burning!
NLong
by NrG_Trader
2
Nat Gas Weekly Idea 2/23/25: Contract rollover week Another double-digit gain (13.5%) for the NG market this week. Strong heating demand, record LNG production and production declines have led to a two year high for NG pricing. But that was last week, and this week brings a new set of completely different fundamentals. Production began recovering form freeze offs close to 6 BCF/d yesterday. The has not been any lasting concerns with additional OFOs (operational flow orders) issued for the upcoming week, meaning production should return to pre-freeze off levels to 103-105 BCF/d. US NG production was metered 100.2 Bcf/d Friday vs. 99.9 Bcf/d Thursday, according to Wood Mackenzie. Estimated gas production for today is approaching 103 BCF/d while demand is falling back. Domestic gas demand was set to plummet more than 10.0 Bcf/d to 123.5 Bcf/d this past weekend, the firm’s data showed. This weekends set up has been a good opportunity for shorting this current market, due to rapid price appreciation over the last two weeks. If this was the middle of January, it would be a different situation, but due to being five weeks away from the net withdrawal period of the demand season, this presents a whole new set of opportunities and issues to be watchful for. The cold spell and “Polar Vortex” have faded and market exhaustion is emerging. The 4400 level has acted as resistance. With the April contract becoming the front month contract in a few days, the seasonal fundamental will become more relevant. The European NG marker, the TTF, is down 20%, since the middle of the month. This is reminiscent of the double top of the market in 2022, when the TTF spiked and the HH benchmark double toped for yearly highs, only to drop after. History does not repeat, but it does rhyme! So, my belief is that we will see a pattern emerge, considering past behavior and adding in the short-term weather models, to line up for another tremendous entry point for longs. In the meantime, while the market panics over the impending warm up, we will use the power of meteorology and the new market structure, to short the market the next 7 days then prepare for another period of price appreciation. This coming weekend just might be one of those weekends where I sit out taking a position. I will need the models to begin to verify the coming cold for the end of March and beginning of April in the printed HDD data. But since the big boys cannot see it either, I am using the meteorology to beat them to the punch. This week I will be posting updates to the model runs for you to know what I am seeing. The market opened just above the 4000 level today and my belief is it should settle down at the 3900 level by market open in NY Monday morning. The night time model runs will be important, being the first model run of the trading week. The weeks temperatures look inline with the Phase 8 of the MJO, and we expect the MJO to continue into its reset with Phase one by next weekend and 2,3, and so on. The market is expecting its normal spring time warming and demand to back down. This week’s storage report is expected to be plus 270 BCF, which will put deficits above 230 BCF vs the 5-year average. So, there can be some expected volatility in the daily moves this week, with the models providing the input for daily swings and the general warming trend to provide market direction. I will be looking at the April contract’s 61.8% level, 3640, from its current swing low/high, to reenter a long position (which will be the current traded contract on Wednesday). I will trade the intraday volatility, after the models print and the report day print. There should be some good trading in a downward channel for the next ten days or so, intraday. As for my belief on the fundamental reasons for the price to rebound the back half of March and early April….. LNG production! This week Federal regulators have approved Plaquemines (Plaqs) export facility to produce more LNG. The facility this week hit a peak at 1.7 BCF/d in production, with an estimated capacity of 2.0 BCF/d. The company is almost complete with commissioning its nine trains, out of eight completed. It is expected to have the ninth train completed very soon to bring production up to the 1.9 BCF/d. The company has been granted approval to increase production up to 3.6 BCF/d. Venture Global (the parent company of Plaqs) is not expanding the plant to achieve the production increase. Instead, it plans to rely on train efficiencies to boost output. So, this is not going to need or have any construction delays, just an increase in efficiency. Corpus Christi has shipped out its first cargo this week and is in the process of commissioning three additional trains at the facility. It has one that is producing now and with the other two to come online add an additional 1 BCF/d. The repairs at Freeport seemed to have stabilized production and production has been at its most consistent since operation began. We expect that LNG export to end 2025 somewhere in the 17.5 BCF/d. Export has been averaging 15 BCF/d over the last twelve months, an increase of 15% by mid-April. So forward demand for the year looks promising! Additional demand for electricity…. The Edison Electric Institute reported a 10.9% increase in U.S. electricity output for the week ending February 15, highlighting strong utility-driven demand. With only 99 active natural gas drilling rigs in operation, a meaningful increase in production appears unlikely in the short term. NG power burn is now more than 17% higher than 5 years ago, and this is not including the multitude of AI facilities in active production and to go online this year. Additional demand for a late start to spring…. I will not bore you again this post about the upcoming SSW event that is currently beginning up in the stratosphere. For clarification, please see my pervious idea form Monday 2/17/25. We should expect a late spring and the heating demand should continue into early-mid April. With a colder than average early spring. Decreased storage… Again, see last week’s idea about where supply is heading. I showed how storage levels are correlated to price. The lower the storage levels the higher the price. Keep it Burning!
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by NrG_Trader
Nat Gas Pre-Open Idea: 2/23/24The Us models trended 9 HDD warmer while the Euro trended a whopping 18 HDD warmer. Weather models have trended perfectly for the new week and roll over set up. Expecting a sizable gap lower today, with models losing double digit GWDD for the 15 day period. Roll over Tuesday afternoon, HH Spot below $4 again and heading lower today. Looking as planned. Production has bounced back up nicely from after a week of frozen ground. Although the only bullish catalyst is LNG production is above 16 BCF/d for the third straight day. Idea will be post after opening tonight. No change on an ideas that I have posted from the past week.
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by NrG_Trader
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