WBS1! trade ideas
WTI breakout coming ? WTI has had a relatively range-bound year. Thinking back to what I said at the beginning of the year, that was what I predicted. I have drawn the vertical lines to show this year's range, and for me, this indicates a sell-the-rally mode that traders have adopted. You can see the triangle that has been forming over the past few years will break out soon. I prefer the downside break but just in case the opposite happens I have drawn the boxes of support and resistance I have observed. I have shown the chart for the 2008-2024 period because it gives a great perspective.
Is a Big Move Coming in Crude Oil?Crude oil has been limping for most of this year, and now some traders may see risk of a bigger drop.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the relentless series of lower highs since September 2023. The trend lines along these peaks have dropped at steeper angles, which potentially reflects increased selling pressure.
The second pattern is the series of slightly higher lows since September 2024. That may be viewed as a bearish flag.
Third, consider the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). They swung earlier in the year, with the faster above the slower at times but that changed 2-3 months ago. They’re now in a clearer sequence, with the faster SMAs below the slower SMAs. All three are also falling. That could also indicate a longer-term downtrend has developed.
Next is the support zone around 64.50 to 67.75. Prices bounced quickly from this range between March and June of 2023, but are now spending more time in the same area. That could suggest longer-term support is fading.
Speaking of longer-term support, the second chart uses 2-week candles to compare the current environment with late 2014. Both saw long periods of sideways movement with lower highs. The earlier moment saw an accelerated downtrend once the weekly support level broke. Could a similar move be coming soon?
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Scenario on light crude oil cl1! 13.12.24If we can maintain the main monthly level, which is also support for the price of 71.66-72.44, then it is likely that the market will come for levels around 65, but if the market were to break through this level, then there is a possible scenario that the price could go higher and I would take the first tp somewhere around 75, but there are other big levels above that and the price could even reach 80.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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Crude Oil Futures OIl OIl OIl!!! Everyone knows that I love trading oil. This week, we are going to see some movements. We have a few crude news coming out this week. So, we might see the bulls maintain control. On the other side, we could see the sellers coming in and trying to drop the price down some.
Crude Oil (102 points LONG +4R) Secured for DA HOUSE!!!NYMEX:CL1!
'2025 For a gr8ter reward, we must go to the valley to CONQUER!! #500K
Please take the time to watch how I predicted before hand that we would catch LONG on Crude OIl if we could see a specific sequence of events take place in PA therefor compelling us to enter the market LONG.... We did just that and the trade ran all the way to TP. Stats; 102pts LONG +4R Secured!! Well Managed, on to the next HP SU! +Shalom #APBTG #BHM500K
Remember 'Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of Printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently, done correctly; Well abundance awaits us.' -500KTrey
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral again. Last week we got a bull surprise and market closed at previous resistance. Upside will probably be limited and market could not close above 72.3 for 2 months now. I do not expect it to change that all of a sudden. The volume is also low af and therefore I expect more sideways between 67 - 71. 2024 will likely close near 69.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls are not doing enough but bears are also barely making new lows. Market is mostly two sided and stuck inside an 8$ range for 2 months. Don’t over analyze it.
comment: I won’t make this longer than it needs to be and nothing has changed for the past 10 weeks. We are inside a clear trading range 66 - 72 and you can not expect that range to break over the next 3 weeks. Almost anything can happen with the markets but the most reasonable expectation is a continuation.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 66 - 72
bull case: If bulls can close the gap to 72.56 I’d be very surprised. 71.5 is likely still bigger resistance and thus most bulls will exit longs above 71 on any decent weakness. Daily close above 72 would change that a bit but not too much.
Invalidation is below 66.
bear case: Upper third of the trading range is where bears are favored again but they need to show some selling pressure before you should think about shorting this. If you would short this now, would you put your stop at 71.5? That’s really tight and the risk the market prints those couple of ticks is big. Next best stop would be 72.8. In any case, I wait for selling pressure before I short.
Invalidation is above 71.6.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. Can’t change much of last weeks short term outlook, since it’s still valid. Bears have targets below 66 but until they get a daily close below it, we continue sideways.
→ Last Sunday we traded 67.2 and now we are at 71.29. Range is still holding. Outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral 68 - 71.6. Above 71.6. we could see 72.2 but probably not higher than 72.8. Bears are favored at the upper third of this range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Nothing worth mentioning. Again.
So our bull targets done in crude oil This free new indicator helps to get accurate signals almost on all time frames and if you as me i use it on 15m chart normal candles , so lets talk about crude oil -
when to take trades now-
waiting for the bear signal between 5850-6200
if bear signal we can hold around 70 points tp with 20 sl
Prediction are simply gambling but depending on market situation it shows that market can go upto 6200 or more with 30% chances or else it can open gap down and and go till 6100 or 6110 or more with 50 % chances.
or it can break 6100 and give a bear signal around 6070 with 20% chances.
the indicator you seeing is totally free and will be available soon, keep following.
good luck
Crude Oil Prices Fall Amid Economic and Geopolitical ShiftsSince the beginning of October, crude oil prices have been on a downward trend, dropping from $77 to $70 in less than three months. This decline can be attributed to several geopolitical and economic factors. During this period, global economic growth showed signs of slowing, raising concerns about future oil demand. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions eased, leading to a more stable supply outlook. These combined factors have exerted downward pressure on crude oil prices.
2024-12-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Having a hard time being bullish inside trading ranges and unexpected moves higher. Volume is utter trash and yet market broke above last weeks high and the bear trend line. Bulls want 71 next but I would not be surprised if we go down to 68 or even 67 again.
comment: Daily chart shows the trading range which is still contracting but the very small break above last weeks high is a start for the bulls. Buying at previous resistance inside a trading range is always a bad trade. I’d rather wait if bulls come around big time on a pullback and see if it has strong momentum and can break above 70.5.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 67 - 71
bull case: Bulls made a small higher high and now want 71 next. The rally is not particularly strong and the volume is also atrocious. I don’t have many arguments for the bulls here.
Invalidation is below 66.27
bear case: Bulls have not printed more than 2 consecutive bull bars for almost 2 months now. Bears see that, previous resistance 70.5 from last week and still a bear trend line close enough. They have much more reasons to sell this, than bulls have for buying it.
Invalidation is above 70.6.
short term: Neutral. I wait for one side to gain momentum again but my bar for the bulls is higher than for the bears. I don’t have an opinion on where this goes next. For me it’s 50/50 if we go down to at least 69 or higher to 71.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade : Nope
trade of the day: Tough. Long was obviously right but there were so many trend lines that could have been resistance, it was much more reasonable to not take the longs than to hope for a breakout above multiple trend lines.
[Commodity] Crude Oil Buy IdeaWait for the trigger
Note -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives
Crude oil and volatilityCrude oil and the CBOE OVX oil volatility. Breaks from the trend in volatility are followed by a change in trend (either change in direction or accelerating rate of change to current trend). The good news is that the fib time zone has lined up with pivot points. The bad news is that the next one is Feb 2026.
Are we going LONG tomorrow on CRUDE OIL Targeting $69.50 NYMEX:MCL1!
"I can’t relate to lazy people." -Kobe Bryant
Family in this video I have broken down the LONG that I caught this morning during NY session that ran for just shy of 2R then bears came in and stopped me @ Breakeven.... SO now here is what I'll be looking for to GO LONG again tomorrow on Crude if PA sets up a HP entry confirmation....
If we can get the break above Minor support / resistance level $68.40 with a 15m candle closure above ill interested in going LONG tomorrow targeting the HTF EQ Level $69.50. This will be rpoughly around a 110pt move in our favor all depending upon entry. Also this trade and give us +3.5-4R Return if she can run all the way to target. Based off the HTF 4Hr supply we have the probability in our favor being that we are coming from a HTF Daily/4Hr Mitigation of Demand. No major news events tomorrow so we should be good to trade full volume. Remember nothing is set in stone we play the long-term game of probability. & We are dam good at it too!
***Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing High SIDE returns of $$$ consistently... & that there is the #500K Model 1of1
CL DAY TRADE 12/10/24If you enjoyed this, please give a like so I know to keep them coming. I’m interested in posting also about NG, CL, BTC and certain Stocks/ETFs as well.
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#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral af. Two weekly bear bars closing on their lows the past two weeks. Before that we had 12 weeks of most alternating bull/bear weeks. Can you get bearish now for a stronger leg down? I highly doubt it. Market has not had a weekly close below 65.6 for exactly a year. 65.6 is the November low and I expect it to hold. So looking for longs is probably the way to go but bulls only produced one single bull bar in the past 2 weeks. Need more buying pressure before looking for higher targets. I won’t touch it for now.
Quote from last week:
comment: The most likely outcome was a continuation of the trading range and that’s what we got. Bears are on their way to test 67 again and the market now have formed a head & shoulders pattern like in August where we broke down to make new lows. Most h&s patterns fail and are just continuation patterns. We will likely get the answer to that next week. Anything between 68 and 70 is a dead zone and I will only be interested in longs around 67, if bulls come around again. Shorts do not make sense below 70.
comment : Bulls are not doing enough but bears are also barely making new lows. Market is mostly two sided and stuck inside an 8$ range for 2 months. Don’t over analyze it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 65 - 73
bull case: I won’t make up stuff here. Market has no direction for years now and the range is contracting. Bulls want to stay above 66 and test the upper bear trend line around 70 again. That’s about it.
Invalidation is below 66.
bear case: Bears are in control but it’s clearly a very weak trending trading range. We are inside nested triangles on higher time frames and selling below 67 has not been profitable for more than an intraday scalp since mid 2023. It hasn’t been profitable to get bearish below 67 for that long, why would you now.
Invalidation is above 71.6.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited.
→ Last Sunday we traded 68 and now we are at 67.2. Good outlook but trading ranges are not rocket science.
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. Can’t change much of last weeks short term outlook, since it’s still valid. Bears have targets below 66 but until they get a daily close below it, we continue sideways.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing worth mentioning. Again.
CRUDE OIL Weekly Forecast: Bearish! Wait for SHORTS!Price has traded through the low @67.71, indicating a shift in the market from bullish to bearish bias. There is an untapped imbalance above @67.87, an Internal Liquidity target. As we know. price seeks liquidity from External liquidity (lows and highs) to Internal Liquidity (FVGs). So the idea here is to wait for the pullback into the -FVG/imbalance and look for valod short setups, targeting the lows @66.98 and 66.50.
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