WBS1! trade ideas
Oil Price Clears June LowThe price of oil clears the June low (69.42) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The selloff in the price of oil may persist as it trades to a fresh weekly low ($68.95), with a break/close below $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) opening up the February low ($66.60).
Next area of interest comes in around $65.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) but the price of oil may continue to hold above the January low ($64.37) if it struggles to break/close below $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).
Need a move back above $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to negate the bearish price action in crude, with a move above $74.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a move towards the $75.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $76.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bears in full control and the 4h ema is king. Bulls are also making money buying new lows, so we have some two sided trading, despite the bear strength.
comment: 4h 20ema. Add that to your wti crude oil chart and trade it. Market is respecting it and there are amazing trades to be made. How long will it continue? No one knows but markets tend to do what they have been doing. Intertia. The bear channel is also looking good for now. Where could be the next bigger support for the bulls? 64.46 was my bigger target for the bears and they already reached it. The 2023-12 low is at 63.21 and the next support below would be 60. For now I think shorts are not favored near the lower bear trend line and I would only look for shorts near the 4h ema. Can you long this? You can but stop would probably be 64.7ish because 65 could easily get tested.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 63 - 71
bull case: Bulls are content with scalping long at new lows. They are quick to exit once bigger bears come around and that’s why the selling ist mostly done via quick spikes (roughly 1h in length). Since we are at the lows of the bear channel, r:r favors the bulls for 67 or 68.
Invalidation is below 64.7.
bear case: Bears are in obviously in control. The selling is orderly with pull backs and we are in a decent channel down. Also true is that bears take profits at new lows, hence the pullbacks to the 4h ema. 63 to 67 was an area where the market produced a lot of tails below the bars in December and January. I doubt bears can continue this strong through that price area.
Invalidation is above 68.8.
short term: Bullish for retest of the upper bear channel and 4h ema. SL is 64.7.
medium-long term: Will update after this week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Once again, a short near the 4h ema.
Crude Oil Getting Mauled!Lookout below! Chart looks horrific. Comment below where your bottom target is! if demand continues to be weak and supply grows, crude oil might see prices in the 60s or potentially lower if there's a significant event or policy shift
could Oil be headed back to the COVID-era $30 range ?
Oil Prices Drop on Weak China Demand & Gulf StormOil prices continue to drop as weak demand in China persists, despite disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. Latest data shows consumer inflation in China rising slower than expected, with crude oil imports rebounding slightly from July but still weak on a seasonal basis.
In the Gulf, oil and gas producers are shutting down platforms and evacuating workers as they brace for the storm.
📊 Technical Outlook: The market is approaching key support levels:
• 38.2% retracement at $65.16 (2020-2022 move)
• $63.64 (2023 low)
• $61.74 (mid-2021 low)
While these levels might hold during the initial test, it’s unlikely they'll prompt a reversal. With the market trading below the 200-week moving average and breaking the 55-month moving average, there's potential for prices to dip below $50 in the longer term. A negative bias remains below $84.52, and if support levels break, we could see a structural downtrend.
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Bears wade into crude oil futures: CL1!An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.
Sellers Successfully Broke to the downside on Weekly TF...NYMEX:CL1!
"Our patterns make prints that show up on paper." -Trinidad Chris
Family as we get ready to start this trading week. Let's make sure we play very close attention to every detail in the market on every TF from the Weekly n Below. Our #1 focus is the Mastery of our System! We are in the business of Managment. Here in this video, I went into gr8 detail as to why I am more so SHORT biased on Crude OIL. However, LONGS are still on the table if the right High Probable Set Up presents itself!! This is going to be a BIG BIG Week for the HOUSE!!! Let's stay on POINT!!
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Very strong breakout below previous support around 70 and market is on it’s way to test the 2024 low 64.46. Oil has not traded below 63 for more than a year. Bulls are in pain but some pullback is expected next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Not much changed. On the weekly it looks more bearish than it is. Until one side get’s a daily close above or below previous lows/highs, market continues to contract and the breakout is near. Weekly ema is flat as can be. Either scalp to both sides or wait for the breakout. Bears want to get below 70 and bulls want 78 and higher. Odds favor the bulls around 72 to trade back up to at least 76.
comment: Bears did surprise me big time on Monday where they closed below the August low but the bigger surprise was the follow through on Tuesday where they closed below 70. That was the lowest close for 8 months and bears just sold it relentlessly on every small rip. We are now 4% away from the January low and given the strong selling on much higher volume, we will likely test below 65$ next week. All pullbacks last week were mostly sideways and every time market got near or touched the 4h 20ema, it sold off big time. Any pullback the bulls get, bears will probably continue and try to keep 70 resistance. Selling 67.67 is probably not a good idea so I what for Monday and if we can get near the 4h ema again and there I’d look for weakness.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 60-72
bull case: Bulls are really trying if you look at the 1h chart but every rip bigger than 100 ticks is sold heavily by huge bear bars. Right now at 67.67 I don’t think we are at a bigger support level where bulls want to fight this. Could happen on Monday but I think many more bulls wait for 65 to be hit before longing this. First objective for the bulls is to make the market go sideways and then get a 4h bar close above the ema. Anything above 71 would surprise me.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears broke strongly below very big previous support and trying to test the 2024 at 64.46. They are in total control of the market until bulls can close a bull bar above the 4h ema. So we have a clear target with 65 or even 64.46 and a clear invalidation level of the max bearishness with the 4h ema.
Invalidation is above 70.32
outlook last week:
short term : Bullish above 75, bearish below 73. Bulls want 77 and bears want 72 or lower.
→ Last Sunday we traded 73.55 and now we are at 67.67. Clear levels given, hope you took shorts below 73.
short term: Full bear mode but a pullback is expected. Good r:r shorts are to be found around 69-70. Above 70.32 we will see a more complex pullback and I’d be out of shorts and wait.
medium-long term: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 9-13th: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 9 - 13th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet.
True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Front Month Premium - Bullish
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Scaled Water DragoonFirst things first!
THIS IS NOT A TRADING SIGNAL! The signal came 8/29/24 at 11:30 from an AI analyst tool that I created to be my automated analysis assistant.
It sends me alerts after very specific market ingredients have simmered in a very specific order.
This post is just to share my chart art with the world’s biggest hub of retail traders!
Without getting into the minute details of my eve, I will tell you an overview of what exactly has to happen before I get one of these alerts as they are rare market occurrences.
1. Lopsided market participation.
2. Institutional pricing level reached.
3. Massive liquidity present.
4 Abnormal Institutional Activty Detected.
5. Price Action Discrepancy,
6. Demand / Supply reached.
I have been working on this system for over a year and a half, August was the first month I had my analyst deployed on the market.
This was the best play I think I’ve seen anyone AI or human ever call out. I’m excited for the future of testing and watching what happens! I will continue to monitor this trade to see just how far it actually runs, currently sitting at 1:14 RR from the time of the AI trading alert to today.
US OIL UP?I'm just imagining various scenarios regarding US crude. Please don't take me seriously.
If you can see the two bright yellow horizontal lines, they represent a sloppy double top on the D chart. I've based the bottom on today's low, which also correlates to the Anchored VWAP low (wavey, nearly parallel fine red lines) that I set months ago, stupidly thinking that oil would not descend to that depressingly hideous low in this fearful "possibility of war strife world." Wrong again!
OK, I've taken the low yellow line to the imagined double-top. What's the difference? Something like 16 points or so? Then, I extrapolated, based on the actual chart data, to the projected month that it could reach soon, which is approximately March of next year. The top of the pink vertical line is where I'm guessing oil will get in 6 months. It could hit $100.
Please keep in mind that this is a thought experiment, nothing more! I would place the odds being 50/50. Yet, the timing makes sense since it's the weekend now, and no one can take more pain from these freaked-out indices! BTW, my charts of the NYSE Indices were screaming PANIC all week long, on daily and weekly chats, based on the indicators I use.
Many will rethink the world political strife regarding Israel, Ukraine, Libya, and all the other concerns that involve oil.
My study is only a wild guess; I am not a professionally trained anyone. Do your research, and I'd love to see your wild projections!
How to Use Intermarket Analysis? - Crude Oil Potential DirectionAn example of Crude Oil and Palm Oil in my intermarket analysis to demonstrate how I identify potential upcoming trends and why I believe both are about to move.
To help narrow down potential opportunities in other markets, you can apply the techniques I am about to share.
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Elliott Wave View on Light Crude Oil (CL) Favoring More DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave in Oil (CL) suggests the decline from 8.13.2024 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 8.13.2024 high, wave (i) ended at 76.83 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 78.6. The commodity extended lower in wave (iii) towards 72.89 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 74.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 71.46 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Oil then turned higher in wave ((ii)) with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 73.52 and wave (b) ended at 72.81. Wave (c) higher ended at 77.58 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree.
Oil extended lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 73.82 and rally in wave ii ended at 76.91. It then extended lower in wave iii towards 69.19 and wave iv rally ended at 71.46. Expect Oil to end wave v soon which should complete wave (i) in higher degree. Afterwards, it should rally in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 8.26.2024 high before it resumes lower. Near term, as far as pivot at 77.58 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
