SHORT with RED UMVDGREEN BARS above RED TrapZone are Good Risk to Reward Zone forr Re-entring Short. Keep an eye on the UMVD and wait for it to Turn RED and risk one Hour Bar Stop or 2 depending
on your appetite.
WBS1! trade ideas
Crude Oil Technical Analysis ( 6th AUG)
Triangle pattern
Current Outlook: Consolidation
Crude oil is currently trading sideways around the 6221 support level.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout: A sustained move above the 6245 level could signal a bullish trend, with initial resistance at 6300.
Bearish Continuation: A breakdown below the 6210 support may lead to a retest of the 6135 level.
Trader Action: Closely monitor price action for a clear breakout signal to determine the next potential move.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Oil (CL) Should Continue Lower to Build an Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave (1) ended at 72.48 and rally in wave (2) ended at 84.55. The commodity has turned lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 83.07 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.45. Oil then extended lower in wave (iii) towards 81.25 and wave (iv) ended at 82.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 80.81 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) unfolded in an expanded flat structure where wave (a) ended at 83.74. Wave (b) lower ended at 80.22, and rally in wave (c) ended at 83.82 which completed wave ((ii)).
Oil has turned lower in wave ((iii)) ended at 76.40 low. The market built an expanded flat correction as wave ((iv)) finishing at 78.60 high and turned lower again. CL broke below wave ((iii)) to end wave ((v)) of 1 at 74.59 low and also we ended wave 1 of (3). Up from wave 1, the market bounce in a zig zag correction ending wave 2 at 78.88 high and starting wave 3 of (3) to the downside. After 5 swings lower, wave ((i)) of 3 completed at 71.67 low and currently we are calling 3 swings higher to end wave ((ii)) pullback before resuming lower. Therefore, we expect further downside to complete wave ((iii)) of 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 78.88 high stays intact, expect rallies to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Lower low again after market formed a perfect double top with Globex high, which was couple of ticks above Globex open. Market is going down but barely. Bears taking profits at new lows and wait for market to go higher again before they sell it. 1h 20ema is a roller coaster. Need to trade small, have wide stops and wait for decent pullbacks.
current market cycle: trending trading range or broad bear channel, whatever you prefer to call it
key levels: 74 - 78
bull case: Bulls buying new lows and making money. That’s about it. They are too weak to push to make new highs and bears will probably stop at bigger resistance which I think is below 74.
Invalid below 73.
bear case: Bears in control but they are taking profits at new lows and thats why the channel down is so broad and we have two sided trading. Play the bear channel until it’s clearly broken. Do not try to be a rocket scientist here and start with macro schmackro stuff about oil. It’s going down, look for shorts. Be Forest Gump and not Cathie Wood.
Invalid above 78.
short term: Bearish. Play the channel.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: Still short since 82.69.
trade of the day: Selling the double top Globex and EU high at 77.6. Had to get short latest at bar 42 but better 41 since it was also a head & shoulders or the top of the trading range. More than enough reasons to sell.
Gold ES8 4 24 in this video I spend more time showing the significance of expansion because an expanded Market has different trade locations then a market that is not expanding. the chances are you won't see expanding markets until you learn what they look like and make the commitment to work with it to see if it's something that will help you.
8.3.2024 Oil Weekend Pre Market AnalysisIt's the weekend. I like to go out to my larger charts and clean off the entire chart and start analyzing the instrument for next weeks trading.
We know that price is going to move up or down from where it currently is located, so we just need to make up a game plan to trade it..
Looking out at the 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute charts for our trend and target analysis. Then dialing it down to the 3 minute or 15 minute to look for an entry!
Crude Steps and Forces- all rectangles are potential support/resistance with the last one blue being a probable exception
- the 3 marked with dots levels can also become support/resistance, especially the first bottom blueish one, but they can also become like milestones levels or steps in the evolution of the price
- the 2 green curves are also potential support/resistance acting as forces pushing the price up or down
This snapshot considers the bullish scenario where the price remains above 66, with potential reversal patterns to occur near the red rectangle zone.
CrudeoilM1! ShortThis is Crudeoil Short Trade;
In This Trade you Clearly looks for "Mother Setup" - (Trend+Momentum+PriceAction+Strength)
How i Identify this Trade:
First of All, I look in 125 min chart:
This is a Sync of Strength + Trend(Long&Short), Then Can be Bullish or Then can be Bearish;
after that, If I Find a Good Sync of Strength + Long Trend + Short Trend (in this Case, We find Bearish)
then, i Go for Smaller TimeFrame(15min):
in Smaller Chart, There Should be a Same Sync as in Long TimeFrame;
means(in this Trade) --> Both the Clouds are Bearish and Strength is Also Bearish in Table
How i Plan the Trades:
For Execution: first of All i plot Pivots of All Time Frame; like Traditional(Auto, Daily, Weekly, Monthly) + Fibbonaci(Auto, Daily, Weekly, Monthly) then i mark all the levels near price;
we can also use Fibbonacci Retracements or Extensions for finding levels
After Major Breakdown i Enter to the Trade(Bearish Trade) with BgRainbowMomentum ;
After Major BreakOut i Enter to the Trade(Bullish Trade) with BgRainbowMomentum ;
Targets are Major Levels;
Sl will be Last 3 Candles(Entry candle+2nd last+3rd Last) Highest point of Entry Candle(Bearish trade)
This i Very Simple and Quite Good Setup to Trade; because there are All the Keys to Success:
Trend + Momentum + PriceAction + Strength
CRUDEOIL - INTRADAY SETUP - AUG 2ndTechnical Analysis: Crude Oil (1-Hour Timeframe)
Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Trade Setup:
Entry: Below 6410
Target: 6360
Stop Loss: 6436
Rationale:
The price is currently below the crucial level of 6410. A break below this level suggests a potential bearish trend. The target of 6360 represents a potential downside move. However, if the price moves above 6436, it invalidates the bearish setup.
Risk Management:
The stop loss at 6436 is placed to limit potential losses if the market moves against the trade.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on the provided data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
IF THIS WILL HELP YOU PLEASE LIKE THE POST
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST July 29-AUG 2: OIL INDICES GOLD SILVERThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast JuLY 22 - 26th
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CL1! - Contracting Volatility, on watch for break of structureVolatility is down, will look for major news events / break of structure to see if we replicate. Will look for a break above / below weekly level and play the opposite direction with tight stops. Ideally watch daily for failed follow through on
entry.
US Crude Oil Prices Hover at $82: Bearish Setup in Sight?US crude oil prices continue to fluctuate within a sideways trading range, currently hovering around the $82.00 mark. This consolidation phase has presented an intriguing supply area, suggesting a potential bearish movement in the near term.
In this context, it's essential to consider the positions of various market participants. Commercial traders, who often include producers and large institutions, are maintaining a bearish stance. This bearish sentiment from the commercial side contrasts with the behavior of retail traders, who are currently in buying mode. This divergence between commercial and retail positions can be a significant indicator of potential market direction.
Given the current market conditions, we are monitoring this supply area for a bearish setup. On a daily timeframe, the possible targets for this bearish movement are the next demand areas. These zones represent potential levels where buying interest might re-emerge, providing support to the prices.
While there isn't a strong seasonal trend supporting a bearish continuation, statistical analysis suggests that there could be a bearish impulse lasting until mid-August. This potential decline aligns with historical patterns, even though the current market lacks a definitive seasonal bias for a prolonged bearish trend.
The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions provides a nuanced view of market sentiment. Commercial traders' bearish outlook, combined with the retail traders' bullish stance, creates a dynamic environment that could lead to significant price movements. This scenario highlights the importance of closely monitoring market sentiment and positioning to identify potential trading opportunities.
In conclusion, US crude oil prices remain in a sideways range around $82.00, with an interesting supply area indicating a possible bearish movement. The contrasting positions of commercial and retail traders add complexity to the market outlook. Despite the absence of strong seasonal trends, statistical analysis suggests a potential bearish impulse until mid-August. Traders should remain vigilant and consider these factors when developing their trading strategies in the current market environment.
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Short WTI Possible level to go short off on WTI Crude oil. Price coming back up into a trendline, resistance level (previous swing low), and low volume cave with the 200 ema acting as resistance and confirming trend. Also have yesterdays volume profile closing as a b shape with POC at lows and lower than pervious day. OBV is creating bearish divergence within this zone on the 30 and 5 min.
Wait to see if we can get a good breakout through this CTL and support level with an increase in volume
ES Oil the last day of the month.... almost.... we have one more day but I'm not redoing the video.
I wanted to talk about the last high or low pattern that I learned years ago when it really resonated with me in a significant way to change my thinking. the es is set up to go possibly a lot lower. I was asked to look at the oil as a long trade and I think that it is a reasonable long trade but not an easy trade. patterns like this can create very nice reversals that go in your direction, but it's easy for trades like this to turn on you and stop you out of the market and that's what would concern me about this trade especially when I look at the larger time frame it compare easier trades for much larger profit this trade. you know where your stop should be on this Market and if you can take the stop this could be a nice trade.... as long as you know that if it turns against you where you have a small stop... it's no big deal he gets stopped out. because the market is at a support area when I can compare the chart to the left my bias is to look to be a buyer not a seller even if I think the market can easily trade lower.... plus I like the ABCD pattern down to the support. I would not scale into a long trade and add a long position if it trades lower with the thought that it can only have a very small move lower.in other words if it moves significantly lower get out of the trade, sit on your hands and give the market some time before you enter back in the market.
Turbo Tuesdays ? Crude OilNice ranged day on Monday leading me to think today won't be as expansive.
Nether less I am looking for Bearish movement but I would like some sort of BSL to be taken meaning I am anticipating a retracement come NY open 0830est roughly.
15min FVG and the 2hr -OB are areas if price was to retrace to I would look for shorts.
Targets are bellow the weekly ssl and the eql's.
