CYCLE 4 | CME GAP - View on the Daily ChartFor additional clarity, this companion post is intended to be read in-conjunction with the weekly analysis post below:
BMC1! trade ideas
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period...
BULL MARKET PULL BACKS
Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels.
The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE).
We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post).
ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING?
As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market.
CME GAP
Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles.
To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post.
The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close.
NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle.
21W EMA & 20W SMA
Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC.
ORANGE TREND LINE
Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher.
* Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top.
* Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s).
Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
BTC1!BOTTOM. Big spot here for BTC1! at our diagonal support from fall 2023 channel. Think they got what they were looking for on the "rate cut decision" liquidation event earlier today. Front run the Santa Claus rally!
Bitcoin Futures Confirming 3 Drives of Bearish Divergence
In the recent analysis of futures on the daily timeframe, a technical pattern known as the "3 Drives of Divergence" has been confirmed, signaling a potential trend reversal. This pattern, often associated with strong bearish momentum, has been observed with a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), further supporting the bearish outlook.
RSI Divergence: The RSI, a momentum oscillator, shows a bearish divergence where the price makes higher highs, but the RSI makes lower highs. This is a classic sign of weakening upward momentum, often preceding a price decline.
Key Levels:
Reversal Pivot: If the price closes below 97K on a daily timeframe. This pivot is critical as it is the last resistance before a potential downtrend.
Target Futures Gap Fill: Historical price action suggests a gap in the futures market that might get filled. This target zone, marked on the chart, could act as a price magnet for Bitcoin if bearish pressures continue.
Mean Reversion CME GAP at FOMC -> Pump until BOJ Rate DecissionHello guys! I will share a mean reversion idea on Bitcoin with you today.
I expect Bitcoin to close the CME Gap, that got made at the beginning of the week. Currently we are very close to starting the recovery process. The CME Gap closing aligns very good with a mean reversion to the 50EMA on the 4hr timeframe. This could be an indication for a trend continuation of Bitcoin to the upside until friday when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will decide their rate policy. We will look into the chart from a new perspective on friday so take this trade idea as a short term one. I mentioned in the chart that we have an unrecovered pink vector candle at the top. This could be an good area to aim for in the reversal process to take profit. With good execution this could be an good trade from 102k to 108k. Me personal, I don't think we will see a rate cut and if so only a small one. So nothing that will shake the markets to hard. I hope.
Trade SAFE!
Bitcoin’s bullish break generates fresh long setup Bitcoin futures have opened the new week on the front foot, talking out the former record highs at $105325 before extending the move as Asian markets come online.
RSI (14) has broken its downtrend while MACD looks like it may crossover from below, suggesting bullish momentum may be building again.
While the price signal is definitive, we’ve not seen pickup in volumes accompanying the bullish break, making the preference to wait for a retest of $105325 before initiating long positions, rather than simply buying around these levels.
If there was pullback and bounce from $105325, it would improve conviction in the setup, allowing for longs to be established above the level with a tight stop beneath for protection.
If the trade were to move in your favour, the preference would be to wait for a topping pattern or signal to determine whether to hold, take profit or reverse the move.
How $BTC gets to $2M+ per coin and flips goldHow I see BTC price action playing out to flip gold and hit $2M+ per coin
Still Bullish on BTC.The only way I would change my mind on this would be a break of 76.5k. Other than that.. Enjoy the ride my fellow Apes
BTCUSDT Long Trade SetupThe overall trend and directional bias on Bitcoin remains bullish. A 3-wave corrective structure will give us the additional confirmation for more upside potential. Do keep a lookout for the area at 92685.
Price Gap Examples - Bitcoin FuturesSharing for educational purposes only.
█ Three Types of Gaps
There are three general types of gaps:
Breakaway Gap
Runaway (or Measuring) Gap
Exhaustion Gap
█ 1 — The Breakaway Gap
The breakaway gap usually occurs:
At the completion of an important price pattern.
At the beginning of a significant market move
Examples:
After a market completes a major basing pattern, the breaking of resistance often involves a breakaway gap.
Breaking major trendlines signaling a reversal of trend may also involve this type of gap
Key Characteristics:
Heavy volume often accompanies breakaway gaps.
They are typically not filled (or only partially filled).
In an uptrend, upside gaps act as support areas on subsequent corrections.
A close below the gap is a sign of weakness.
█ 2 — The Runaway or Measuring Gap
The runaway gap forms:
Midway through a trend (uptrend or downtrend).
Indicates the market is moving effortlessly, usually on moderate volume.
Key Characteristics:
In an uptrend, it signals strength.
In a downtrend, it signals weakness.
Acts as support or resistance during subsequent corrections.
Why "Measuring" Gap?
It often occurs at the halfway point of a trend.
By measuring the distance the trend has already traveled, the probable extent of the remaining move can be estimated by doubling the amount already achieved.
█ 3 — The Exhaustion Gap
The exhaustion gap appears:
Near the end of a market move.
Key Characteristics:
Occurs after objectives have been achieved and other gap types (breakaway and runaway) have been identified.
In an uptrend, prices leap forward in a final push but quickly fade.
Within a couple of days or a week, prices turn lower.
█ Conclusion
By understanding the types of gaps and their characteristics, traders can better interpret market signals and anticipate potential trends or reversals.
█ Source:
Murphy, John J. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York Institute of Finance, 1999. Chapter 4, "Price Gaps," pp. 94-98.
$BTC Top Target, $2M by February 2026Using my scandinavian quant I have come to the mathematical conclusion that this chart shows the exact top by time and price.
good luck and have fun fellow comrades
dynamic support buying areaas we can see the overall trend is an uptrend, with buyers in control. The market has reached our support where it might buy, to enter this trade it's best to wait for a breakout above the dynamic support(blue lines) then enter using H1(bullish candlestick confirmation)
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin.
K1 and K2 is a bearish harami pattern,
But unfortunately, K3 close upon K2 immediately.
Perhaps it is a valid break up, after all it is a bull market.
And K4 will keep climbing up to test 115-128K area.
On the other hand,
It is also possible that a large scale consolidation started from K1 earlier,
And K3 is just a fake up candle.
If that is a fact,
K4 will likely fall to test 90-95K area.
It will be a good place to buy then.
BTC CME Regression Trend Re-visiting an old chart, I put in a regression trend channel on March 11 2024, before the halving. BTC has just come back to the bottom part of that channel. Should retest bottom, then middle, another test, then test the top , in theory. nothing about the next 6 months is known. watch the liquidity cycle. Gonna get crazy, be safe, hardware wallets everyone!
Where from here? my thoughts are $225K, but..., ladder out at fibs, the 61.8's
Bitcoin’s Shooting Star: RSI Divergence Sparks CautionWe’re seeing a potential shooting star pattern forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart, combined with RSI divergence. Despite BTC hitting a new high, the RSI hasn’t confirmed it, hinting at fading upside momentum. While these signals are concerning, I’m waiting on further confirmation. Ideally, a bearish candle should follow the shooting star—something we don’t have yet. A break and close below the 20-day moving average near 93,823 should be enough to trigger a deeper correction. Until that happens, extreme caution is advised.
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The Top is In. Bitcoin, while revolutionary in its inception, faces significant hurdles that challenge its viability as a practical medium of exchange. The cornerstone of this argument lies in the inherent limitations of its transaction processing speed. The Bitcoin network's distributed ledger requires approximately 10 minutes to compute and record each transaction, rendering it impractical for everyday commerce.
This prolonged confirmation time poses a substantial obstacle to Bitcoin's adoption in real-world transactions. In an era where instant gratification is the norm, waiting 10 minutes or more for a simple purchase is not only inconvenient but also commercially unviable. This fundamental flaw undermines Bitcoin's utility as a currency for daily transactions.
Furthermore, if Bitcoin cannot function effectively as a means of exchange, one must question its true value proposition. The current fervor surrounding Bitcoin may be likened to a speculative mania, divorced from practical utility. Historical patterns suggest that such manias often follow Fibonacci ratios in their price movements. We may be witnessing the culmination of a third wave increase, potentially followed by a significant correction.
This correction could see Bitcoin's value plummet to $50,000 or even lower. While it's premature to predict Bitcoin's demise, its current trajectory raises serious concerns about its long-term sustainability as both a currency and an investment vehicle.
In conclusion, the 10-minute transaction confirmation time is not merely an inconvenience; it's a critical flaw that undermines Bitcoin's fundamental purpose. This limitation, coupled with the speculative nature of its current valuation, casts a shadow over Bitcoin's future prospects in the world of finance and commerce.
Again this is my opinion and my perspective, you should do your own due diligence and think on your own two feet about this.
I did predict Bitcoin at $100 by the way.......
You don't have to believe in BitcoinBut all signs point to it reaching $100k. Saylor still has money to print. He will buy the dip. Sellers will be exhausted.
BEARS are salivtingEveryone should be well into profit taking. It would only make sense that all the new people and attention is prime to be used as exit liquidity. I been in the game since 2017 and i got that feeling again the rug is about to get pulled. Dont get stuck sitting in a bear market for years when you should be taking profits to begin with. Discipline and survive. Dont get greedy or youll be rekt
Possible Buying areasgood day traders, I've decided to share my First analysis on futures and these are the possible buying areas I see, between the dynamic trendline or the major low. It's best to wait for a bullish confirmation between these two areas before entering to increase your probability of winning, don't forget proper risk management
CME Bitcoin futures chart look bearishCME #btc #bitcoin futures price has made bearish double top and distribution seems has just started. Bearish continuation may be expected, beware.
