Will the Dollar continue its ascend?The United States Dollar extend towards the upside from the low towards the minor resistance level at 102.75.
It will be difficult for the Dollar to have a confirmation breakout of the key resistance level at 103.225 if price were to continue its upside movement without any form of retracement or consolidation.
Expect the Dollar to trade within the 102.75 region, neutral zone at between 101.48 to 102.1 and bearish when price were to breakout of 101.48 support region.
SDX1! trade ideas
DOLLAR RETRACE TO 103+ ON FOMC & NFP VOLATILITY ?COT:
Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22
Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22
Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23
Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down
Next downside level is 99.60
FOMC & NFP:
Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely
103+ will likely be mitigated in FEB
103 = mitigation level = GAP resistance = sell VWAP
Begin FEB is pivotal week(s) with FOMC & NFP
FOMC and/or NFP volatility will likely facilitate the retrace
OUTLOOK:
Will be monitoring price behaviour between 103.00 - 103.25
Looking for change of behaviour on the lower timeframe (wicks into mitigation-level)
Anticipating a swing lower from 103+ to 100- after mitigation
This will offer buy setups in the MAJORS, with a preference for commodity CCY's
DXY LONG DXY will be wil trend higher.. look like need some push to higher.. there so maney factors are running economically , so no body cant control whats gonna happan..looks like major volume building up..if it reject higher price we short.. or we continue long dxy. once reach ITL level its easy to price go through it as trade location...
Dollar WILL breakout this week!The United States Dollar Index continues to trade in a tight range. This buildup will likely create a strong price movement for the next breakout direction. The only catalyst left for a breakup is the upcoming FOMC.
Downside target will be at 99.365 support region while upside target will be at 105.0 resistance region.
Bobby's Homework Assignment1.23.23 Dollar on the Futures market: The dollar is at the support area. There is a battle between buyers and sellers at this area. This is also A double bottom. This might imply that the market is going to go higher since it is at a double bottom. This is not necessarily true. I spent some time on ABCD patterns. I am guessing that these patterns are probably used more to find targets comma as opposed to finding reversals. Maybe confusing if you have not thought about it in the past. The problem with using ABCD patterns as reversal patterns Is that this process can be much less reliable...especially when you were looking at very long-range projections. There will be plenty of examples to clarify this issue. In general, Start using the line tools to get used to them. Start thinking about support/ resistance Lines. Get used to the drawing tools, and then the nuances fall into place.
Rising channel for DXY 1WWith the rising higher highs and higher lows in the close time period, I find this more appropriate to call a channel than a wedge. To call it a wedge, we should ignore this structure and in my opinion it is better to focus on the channel idea.But who knows what happens in the future :) this is my own idea, not a financial advice. Wish you all a great day!
DOLLAR TRADES AT KEY SUPPORT LEVELThe United States Dollar Index broke out of the short term support region and fell to 101.785 region as per what we have analyzed in the previous week.
We can see that momentum is extended from the initial reversal from the 105.575 resistance region all the way to 102.77 where the Dollar then trading in a lower time frame consolidation. Price fail to push higher when the previous support (now resistance) at 103.225 turns price away.
Extending out the view on the Dollar, we can see that price is now at key support area, Any indication of reversal or reversal confirmations may give Dollar its needed retracement.
SELLERS REMAIN IN CONTROL as the USD gets pressuredThe United States Dollar Index broker out of the range last week and pushed towards 105.575 as expected.
However, price quickly reversed from the resistance zone and fell back to the range.
Seller remains in control over the Dollar and only by breaking out of 105.575 resistance region can we see more potential for upside. For downside opportunity, a breakout of the 103.225 can push the dollar towards 101.785 region.