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KEOU2025 trade ideas

Bullish EURO ScalpThe Euro futures market is showing signs of short-term bullish momentum, supported by a recent uptick in buying pressure. With the Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut, market sentiment appears to favor a weaker dollar in the near term, providing an opportunity for scalping long positions. Looking to capitalize on quick intraday moves, the plan is to buy into minor pullbacks, targeting key resistance levels while maintaining tight stop-loss placements to manage risk effectively. This setup aligns with the broader potential for a short-term recovery amid mixed U.S. economic data.
CME:6EZ2024Long
by trader9224
Take the Red Pill: The EURO COT Long Play RevealedTake the Red Pill: The EURO Long Play Revealed "Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know, you can't explain, but you feel it." – Morpheus Most traders move blindly through the markets, buying and selling on impulse, on what they think they know. But for those who understand how to read deeper signals, patterns begin to emerge—patterns that separate the merely active from the truly informed. Right now, if you're willing to look, Commitment of Traders (COT) data is showing us something intriguing about the EURO. This is your red pill: a glimpse into how those in the know see beyond the chart. The Setup: A Commercial Long Play Behind the scenes, commercials—the ones who have true skin in the game—have loaded up on longs, reaching a 26-week extreme in positioning. Not only that, but they're holding their longest exposure in three years, a sign that those with the best intel in the market believe in a coming shift. Meanwhile, the "small specs," often driven by emotion rather than insight, have gone nearly max-short. Historically, this group isn't just wrong; they’re almost predictably wrong. The result? A textbook setup. But if you’re looking to take advantage, know this: jumping in without discipline is how people get burned. We wait for a confirmed trend change on the daily timeframe. Nothing less. Because only the disciplined get to see beyond the shadows and reap the rewards. The Undervaluation: Gold, Treasuries, and the EURO’s True Position If you look at the EURO in comparison to gold and treasuries, something stands out—it’s undervalued. This doesn’t show up in headlines or make for easy soundbites, but for those who know how to look, it’s a flashing signal. And there’s a seasonal edge, too: the EURO’s tendency to rally through mid-December. It’s another puzzle piece that, when added up with positioning extremes and market sentiment, paints a picture that only a few will truly grasp. Supplementary Signals: Layers of Confirmation For those still seeking confirmation, additional indicators are lining up: %R, Stochastic, and even bullish momentum divergence are signaling alignment. But understand this—the market doesn’t reward the impatient. We wait, observe, and move only when the trend change is confirmed on the daily chart. The Truth Beneath the Surface This is no ordinary trade idea. It’s a blueprint to help you see the hidden dynamics that move the market. Those who look only at surface price action may be blindsided by the moves yet to come. But for those willing to see beyond—those ready to know what the COT data, the fundamentals, and the seasonal tendencies are saying—this is a rare opportunity. Now, if you’re ready to see what the rest don’t, follow Tradius Trades. You’ll be one of the few with eyes open, equipped to move with purpose. --- > "I didn’t say it would be easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth."
CME:6EZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Bearish Euro Futures Trade IdeaEuro futures are showing a bearish outlook amid mixed economic signals and continued challenges in the Eurozone economy. Ongoing concerns over lower growth forecasts, subdued inflation, and recent dollar strength are likely to keep the Euro under pressure. This trade idea targets a move down to key support levels as Euro futures potentially continue their downward trend. Stops are placed above recent highs to manage risk, while focusing on a sustained bearish move given the current market sentiment.
CME:6EZ2024Short
by trader9224
M6E: Staking an Opinion on the US ElectionCME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) All eyes are on the November 5th U.S. presidential election. The stake can’t be higher. A bad outcome could lead to reshaping the balance of world power, an escalation of the geopolitical crises underway, and disrupting the social stability in the U.S. and beyond. Here on TradingView, I want to address this question: How would the U.S. election impact financial investment? A Lookback from the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election On August 17, 2022, I published “Market Impacts of the US Mid-term Elections, which broke down the possible election outcomes into two categories: • “One-Party Rule”, where Democrats controlled the White House and the Congress • “Divided Government”, where Republicans retook either the House or the Senate and created effective challenges to the Administration’s political agenda I analyzed how each asset class would fare under these two scenarios. My conclusion was that the four mega spending bills passed in the first two years would pump $4 trillion in the U.S. economy and would pop up the stock market. At the time of that story, the S&P 500 stood at 4,264. Last Friday, it settled at 5,808, up 36%. Prediction Markets, Opinion Polls and the DJT Stock With the upcoming election, my main question can be broken down into two: • What asset class would fare well if Trump wins? • Would there be any investment instrument help us express our market view? What if Harris win? The election is a binary option with only two outcomes. We could combine them in one question with Yes or No answer. A No for Trump is equivalent to a Yes to Harris. To start our analysis, we need to assess the winning odds of each candidate. Many data sources exist to help. Each tells a part of the story, but all have their own flaws. In my opinion, the prediction markets are preferrable to opinion polls. Millions of people wager on the election outcome on Polymarket, with the money pool amounting to $2.5 billion. This is a real deal as people put money where their mouth is. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has 65.1% odds of winning the election, where Harris has a 34.9% chance. How does it work? • If you believe in Trump, you could put down 65 cents for a recreational bet to vote Yes. When he wins, you get $1 back, and if he loses, you lose the bet. • If you are in favor of Harris, you could put down 35 cents to vote No for Trump. You also get $1 back if Harris wins and will say goodbye to 35 cents if she loses. Many readers are not comfortable with an “All or Nothing” trade and may not be allowed to participate in a betting market. Fortunately, there are investment-graded alternatives. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is a publicly traded company listed on the Nasdaq market. Its main owner is Donald J. Trump with an 84% stake, and its main asset is TrueSocial. My hypothesis: DJT stock price shall move up (down) along with the rise (fall) of Trump’s winning odds. With so many unprecedented events happening, we should be able to validate this assumption easily. Let’s look back in the campaign timeline in the past four months, and see how Polymarket and DJT stock price responded to these events: (1) On June 27th, the first presidential debate took place. It’s generally viewed that the current President performed poorly against his opponent. My rating: Positive on Trump • Polymarket: Trump’s odds increase from 59.5% to 67.0% (+7.5%) • DJT: Stock price moved from $25 to $39 (+56%) (2) On July 13th, an attempted assassination on Donald Trump wounded him and killed a bystander in Pennsylvania. Rating: Strong Positive • Polymarket from 59% to 71% (+12%) and DJT from $29 to $41(+41%) (3) On July 24th, President Biden withdrew his presidential candidacy. On August 3rd, Kamala Harris became the Democrats nominee after a roll call to party delegates secured a majority vote. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 62% to 45% (-17%) and DJT from $41 to $21 (-49%) (4) On September 10th, the second presidential debate with Trump and Harris took place. Many viewed that Harris performed better than expected. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 52% to 49% (-3%) and DJT from $18 to $12 (-33%) (5) On October 20th, Trump worked a shift in a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, making fries and handing out food to mobile customers. Rating: Very Positive • Polymarket from 55% to 65% (+10%) and DJT from $20 to $39 (+95%) The above analysis shows that DJT is positively correlated to the Polymarket winning odds. Therefore, we could use DJT as a stock market proxy for Trump’s chance of winning the presidential election on November 5th. For anyone owning a stock brokerage account, he could give his approval to Trump by buying DJT. Harris became presidential nominee in less than 3 months, and there isn’t a stock symbol closely linked to her. Therefore, for anyone leaning towards her, he could deliver a disapproval to Trump by shorting DJT. DJT Correlation with Other Financial Instruments Keep in mind that DJT is a single stock with very volatile prices. Its low market valuation opens DJT vulnerable to stock manipulation. A prudent investor may want to consider other assets that move in line with DJT but are less volatile. I looked into a number of financial instruments. Here is what I founded: US stock market indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT Gold and Bitcoin have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT US Dollar Index is positively correlated with the stock prices of DJT, while the Euro-USD Exchange Rate is negatively correlated with the stock prices of DJT Let’s focus on the ones with statistically significant correlations. The dollar index moved in line with Trump’s winning odds. Investors are not necessarily in favor of a Trump win. In my opinion, his America-First policy would help uphold the value of the dollar. Meanwhile, an untested Harris administration means more uncertainties to dollar investors. The Euro-USD is negatively correlated with DJT because of the quoting convention in the FX market. Quoting as number of dollars per euro, dollar appreciation means that each unit of euro could buy fewer dollars, resulting in the declining exchange rate quotation. The opposite also holds true. Trade Setup with the Micro Euro-USD Futures Like trading DJT, a trader could express his political opinions in this election using CME Micro Euro-USD futures ($M6E). M6E contract has a notional value of 12,500 euros. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $280. The December contract (M6EZ4) was settled at $1.0817 last Friday. At the current price, each contract is valued at $13,521.25. The M6E contract is very liquid, with a daily trade volume of 18,096 and an Open Interest of 14,375. Along the line with our preceding discussion, possible trade setup are as follows: • A Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, leading to a decline in M6E quotation. Therefore, a vote for Trump could equal to a short position in Micro Euro-USD futures. • A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in M6E quotation. A vote for Harris is a No to Trump, which could equal to a long position in M6E. I do not attempt to sway anyone’s vote to one direction or the other. Both views could find application using M6E. Unlike Polymarket, trading futures is not an All-or-Nothing bet. If you are wrong, you may incur losses in the trade, but not necessarily lose everything. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Directional bias for trade filtering on lower TF , or 70 win %Hi there! I’m excited to share a system I’ve developed called 'Zones.' These zones offer a directional bias, helping predict where price is likely to move next with a current follow-through rate of 70%. In other words, if the price exits one of the orange zones, there’s a 70% chance it will reach the next orange zone, at least touching the boundary, rather than reversing back and closing within the previous zone. You can trade these zones directly for a 70% win rate, or use them as a directional bias to complement your existing strategy on a 1-minute or 5-minute chart (which I highly recommend). Important note: When the price briefly exits a zone but doesn’t close outside it, this is not considered a valid exit — we call this a "spike" or wick. For the 70% win rate to apply, the price must close outside the zone. These zones are the result of years of research, experimental machine learning development, and collaboration with colleagues who have decades of experience in physics. And the best part? I’m offering them completely free. The real challenge isn’t just following a system with a 70% win rate — it’s whether you can overcome your own psychology and avoid sabotaging your success. If you had a winning strategy, what’s really stopping you from being consistently profitable? Often, the answer is ourselves. My zones are built on theoretical thermodynamics and mathematical proofs that help predict the likely trajectory of a system, similar to particle movement in physics. Keep in mind, the orange zone line represents an unpredictable area — while the price often touches the line, there are instances where it may not reach it. Due to the inherent limitations of modern physics, this zone remains an unsolvable area, adding a layer of uncertainty to the system. I promise, none of the paid indicators, whether it’s LuxAlgo or anything from a Pine Wizard or trading “guru,” can match the accuracy of these zones. But don’t take my word for it — try them for yourself and see the results!
CME:6E1!
by user2839409
EURO, EURUSD Bullish Week Ahead**BIG BOYS BIAS (CFTC COT INDEX REPORT) Commercials: Net Buyers Retail Traders: Net Sellers Non-Commercials: In-Trend This suggests that institutional "Big Money" players were positioning for a Bullish week, while retail traders were net Sellers Relative to previous position. In a zero-sum game, this typically signals a potential Bullish move for this week. **EURO Value Correlation to USD >We are now in the Oversold region Signaling for a bullish trend week. Note: Every time we get Oversold Readings (Green Vertical Lines) we always get a Bullish Move **Election Year Seasonality forecast >Bullish until early next Week. Technicals: >Price already re-tested the Daily Supply Zone last Friday, preparing for a Bullish Week ahead. >Price could reach to the opposing Supply Zone that initiated the bearish imbalance. OTHERS: >Scalpers can ride the bullish trending week >Long term traders can position for a Sell for next week. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
CME:6E1!Long
by TradersPod
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: EURUSD EURUSD is at an OTE level currently, and may find support for higher prices. I am on the lookout for BUY setups, as I do not want to take shorts in this market until prices breaks below 1.0940. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6E1!Long
by RT_Money
1
EURO FUTURES, EURUSD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY OUTLOOK What we have here is the fundamental outlook from the Net-positions of Big Fund Managers. Fund Managers are normally trend following. Every time there is a negative or positive divergence between the price chart and the Fund Managers Net positions, Price usually follows next forming the trend. Fund Managers net positions moves the market because they have big reportable positions to the CFTC. We are currently approaching a Daily and Weekly Supply zone which could be the cause of price falling down in the next few weeks. Also, Euro is negatively correlated to DXY, wherein we are currently in the oversold reading. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
CME:6E1!Short
by TradersPod