DAX 40: BEARISH engulfing detected.DAX 40: BEARISH engulfing detected.
The EMA.50 and EMA.200 are still potential targets
the market and overbought
is this the end of recess??!!
be careful !
DAX.AUD.1.IFA trade ideas
LONG IDEAAnticipating and favoring a bias long with the target 17074. once momentum shifts.
Annotation and my anticipated key levels are on the chart.
Once the level of 16890 is breached, the idea is invalidated and will be on the sidelines for another opportunity.
As usual, manage risk appropriately and conserve capital.
Countertrend Gartley 222 (AB=CD) in DAX, entry at 78%Something I was observing for, but didn't enter.
One way to trade Gartleys is to enter directly at the 78% retracement lever with a stop behind the previous high/low. (Point X) There was no good signal bar at 30 min, 1 hour nor the 2 hour chart so this was a viable way. In this case, one-to-one was already reached.
Larry Pesavento suggests for targets the 38% and the e 68% retracements of the AD leg.
In this case, as it's a countertrend trade maybe this is the better option, target 1 was already reached in this chart.
With the trend, you can even aim for the 161% extension of the AD leg which gives a huge risk-to-reward opportunity. I prefer these.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 is currently in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with the price above its 20-period VWAP of 16,885. The index finds support at 16,664 and faces resistance near 17,106. The RSI stands at 59, indicating a positive momentum but not yet overbought.
UK 100 is in a neutral trend with its price drifting above and below the flat 20-period VWAP of 7,603.7. The index's support level is at 7,481.5, with resistance at 7,725.8. The RSI is at 44, suggesting a bearish momentum.
Wall Street is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, highlighted by its price well above the 20-period VWAP of 38,282. The support for this index is at 37,654, with resistance at 38,910. The RSI is at 63, pointing towards strong bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory.
Brent Crude continues to oscillate in a neutral trend, with its price moving below and now back above a flat 20-period VWAP of 80.21. The support level is at 76.36, with resistance near 84.06. The RSI is at 56, indicating bearish momentum with potential for further downside but not strongly bearish.
Gold is in the consolidation phase of a neutral trend, with its price below the 20-period VWAP of 2,030 but with no consistency having been above it 3 days ago. The support level is at 2,011, with resistance at 2,049. The RSI at 44 indicates a neutral to bearish momentum, suggesting the market is assessing direction.
EUR/USD is in the impulsive phase of a bearish trend, with the price below the down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.0821. The support is at 1.0729, with resistance at 1.0913. The RSI at 39 indicates a bearish bias, suggesting potential for further declines.
GBP/USD is consolidating in what has been a prolonged neutral trend. A break below 1.25 in a new impulsive leg lower would imply a new bearish trend, with the price below the 20-period VWAP of 1.2665. Support is found at 1.2561, with resistance at 1.2768. The RSI at 45 suggests a bearish outlook, with room for downward movement.
USD/JPY is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with its price above the 20-period VWAP of 148.03. The support level is at 146.52, with resistance at 149.54. The RSI is at 63, indicating strong bullish momentum and potential for continued upward trend.
SHORT IDEAFavoring a bias short with the price action displayed. Entry based on your preferred technique.
Annotations and my anticipated key levels on the chart.
Once the stop level of 17017 is breached, the idea is invalidated and will be on the sidelines for another opportunity.
As always manage risk and conserve capital.
Ger40 chartTrading off of pivots using auto-fibs. I'm looking at trading the BRE on major pivot levels.
DAX intraday dips continue to attract buyers.GER40 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 16920 (stop at 16840)
The primary trend remains bullish.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17066.
Mixed but positive price action has resulted in consecutive, narrow-ranged, sideways trading days.
50 4hour EMA is at 16938.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 17120 and 17185
Resistance: 16970 / 17066 / 17150
Support: 16910 / 16850 / 16785
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Short Dax H4
DAX Index (H4) Analysis
📉 Overview:
Analyzing the DAX index on the H4 timeframe, we observe significant resistance in the range of 17000 - 17100. The price has formed a descending structure, creating lower highs and lower lows.
📊 Key Observations:
Resistance Zone: Strong resistance is evident around 17000 - 17100, where the price encountered notable selling pressure.
Descending Structure: The price has been forming a descending structure, indicating a potential downtrend.
📈 Sell Plan:
Sell Zone: Plan to initiate a sell position in the range of 16900 - 17000.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at 17150 to mitigate potential losses.
Target Price: Set the target price at 16700, anticipating a continuation of the downtrend.
👀 Further Considerations:
Confirmation Indicators: Use technical indicators or price action confirmation to validate the selling decision.
Market Conditions: Stay informed about broader market conditions and relevant news that may impact the DAX.
🛑 Risk Management:
Risk/Reward Ratio: Maintain a balanced risk/reward ratio to ensure prudent risk management.
🚀 Summary:
Given the resistance at 17000 - 17100 and the descending structure, executing a sell plan in the range of 16900 - 17000 with a stop loss at 17150 and a target of 16700 seems like a well-considered strategy. Always monitor for confirmation signals and stay attentive to market developments. #DAXAnalysis #SellStrategy #StockMarket
DAX and euro financials and also dollar effect... DAX and financials and dollar effect... spotting divergences for pullbacks...
202407 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood day and i hope you are well.
Bulls made new all time highs on dax, sp500, nasdaq and the dow (those are the ones i cover, so i don’t care about the rest). Since i don’t think this is the beginning of a new stronger trend, where we rally another 5-10%, all bullish targets are met imo. My focus has now shifted to a change in the character of the market. We had amazing bull runs, next logical cycle is a trading range before we get a new bear trend. We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. A week ago i raised the thesis that we are very close to the end of this bull rally and Opex might be a good opportunity to trap many late bulls.
You can argue that it’s quite stupid to talk about bearish targets after many new aths and rallies and that may be so. I have given you my reasoning and now it’s gathering evidence and looking for the signals.
Now comes the outrages part this week. I mentioned a couple of times now that these highs are a good place to start long term shorts. Shorting here at the tops, has the potential to be the trade of a lifetime. You don’t get that many multiple year long major trend reversals. Everyone wants to buy low and sell high but when the time comes, who has the balls and nerves to do it without losing it all?
dax
Dax has not moved in 2 weeks and that’s only due to weakness by the bulls. If they had the strength to produce a new ath or the retest, it would have happened by now. If you want to short the highs, you still need a wide stop to factor in a spike. So at least 17250/17300.
bull case: Bulls need a strong daily close with follow through the next day. Right now they are still closing above the daily 20ema but market the doji closes are helping the bears more than the bulls. Since most indexes rallied so much the last days, the bull case for dax is very weak imo.
bear case: Bears need to show strength and a daily close below 16950. If they get that, i think the odds of dax trading quickly down to 16650 are high. They see the 4 tops that failed to close above 17132 and wait for bulls to finally give up. They got 3 days of lower highs and lower lows, so we are already in a bear channel inside this bigger trading range. But we are also in multiple triangles so market will break out soon.
outlook last week: “Neutral here. Both sides have reasonable arguments and i don’t like to guess these odds around 50/50. Just wait for strength with follow through. Will update this anyway in my daily updates“ → Last Sunday we traded 17025 and now we are at 17032, outlooks do not get better than that.
short term: bearish. we will get a big move down next week or the week after. could go sideways for week before the move. odds clearly favor sideways, just to be very clear about that, yet i think bearish price action is reasonable and due.
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 12/02/2024 (+ HTF)In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
DE40 Analysis. will it fall?Hello everyone. i want share my idea about Germany index.
i am looking this index long time, it had pretty strong bullish movement but it losing momentum, it took buy side liquidity and coming down. after big and strong year, we see price need new buyers for push up but at the moment sellers winning i think. Today in New York Session we had pretty good third Low High which i think it is some sing from sellers.
For me it will be the best scene to brake 1D FVG (Fair Value Gap)
and 1D Support. if my scene will go this way then i will share my updates about trail stop loss.
AB=CD Double Bottom in DAXEntering hoping the reaction from the measured move will allow me to move my stop to breakeven.
Also anticipating the stops behind the previous low will serve as a liquidity boost to move the price upwards.
The risk to reward is just illustrative.
SHORT IDEALooking for a continuation lower today with my bias favoring the short side.
Annotations and anticipated key levels on the chart.
Once the stop level of 16994.9 is breached, the idea is invalidated and will be on the sidelines for another opportunity.
Key anticipation: High impact News Driver during the New York Session.
As always manage risk and conserve capital.
Timely Opening Range Breakout Strategy (TORB)Today, I’ll tell you about an amazing research study back from 2019 by a team of Taiwanese researchers, “Assessing the Profitability of Timely Opening Range Breakout on Index Futures Markets.”
Takeaway: The study's results are compelling. Implementing the TORB strategy yielded over 8% annual returns across the tested markets. Remarkably, the TAIEX index showcased a staggering 20.28% annual return. These numbers underline the potential of TORB in maximizing trading gains.
█ What is Open Range Breakout?
Open Range Breakout (ORB) is one of the simplest and safest strategies day traders use in a relatively low-volatility market. Opening Range means exactly just that. You check an asset's highest and lowest price in a certain time frame (usually 15 to 60 minutes) from the market's opening time.
These levels become your resistance and support that guide your trading plan for that day. Say if your chosen stock price goes higher than the highest level after the opening range; it indicates a bullish run for the day. Conversely, it indicates a bearish run if the price loses support in a downward trend.
█ Timely Opening Range Breakout Strategy
ORB has a certain set of challenges, especially for volatile markets. The Timely Open Range Breakout (TORB) strategy has been proposed in response to these challenges.
TORB leverages high-frequency intraday data and aligns trading strategies with the active hours of the underlying stock markets.
By analyzing one-minute intraday data from 2003 to 2013 across various markets, including DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, HSI, and TAIEX, the study by Yi-Cheng Tsai et al. demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy.
The key lies in identifying the 'active hours' of the market, aligning with the opening range of the underlying index.
█ 1. PMMV and PMVR:
The research paper introduces two critical variables for the TORB strategy: Per-Minute Mean Volume (PMMV) and Per-Minute Variance of Return (PMVR). These metrics are essential in identifying the most active hours for futures market trading.
PMMV provides a snapshot of the market's activity level at each minute of the trading day. PMVR is crucial for understanding the volatility or the degree of fluctuation in the market at each minute.
PMMV (Per-Minute Mean Volume) is calculated by averaging the trading volume in a one-minute interval over a specified number of trading days.
The graph shows that the German 40 is most active during the London opening and 30 minutes into the New York opening.
PMVR (Per-Minute Variance of Return) measures the variance of the one-minute returns, calculated as the logarithmic difference between the closing prices of one-minute intervals.
Using PMVR, the German 40 is most active during the London opening session and approximately one hour into the New York session.
█ 2. TORB Trading Rules:
Basic ORB trading rules are applied here.
Buying pressure dominates if the price moves above the resistance level, suggesting potential upward price movement. Conversely, selling pressure prevails if the price falls below the support level, indicating a possible downward trend.
These rules are applied within the active trading hours, defined by the PMMV and PMVR metrics.
Buy Signal
Sell Signal
The strategy also defines three key time points: the beginning of the observed period, the end of the observed period (probe time), and the time of closing the position. The prices at these specific times determine the conditions for buying and selling.
█ 3. Data Sets:
The study utilized two main datasets for its experiments:
Intraday Data of Five Futures Markets: This dataset includes one-minute intraday data of the E-mini futures of the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, HSI (Hong Kong), and TAIEX (Taiwan). The period covered ranges from 2001/2003 to 2013, providing a comprehensive overview of these markets over a decade.
Transaction Data for TAIEX Index Futures: This dataset contains detailed transaction data for the TAIEX index futures, covering the period from 2006 to 2013. It analyzes the relationship between TORB signals and trader behavior in the Taiwanese market.
Interestingly, the research even considers the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, presenting test results for two sub-periods: before and after 2007. This approach ensures a thorough understanding of the strategy's performance across different market conditions.
█ Results and Analysis
1. TORB Profitability Test:
The TORB profitability test involved back-testing the strategy for the five futures markets.
DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ results revealed that strategies with probe times in the early stages yielded significantly higher annual returns.
DJIA: The results showed that TORB transactions decreased as the probe time moved away from the beginning of active hours. This implies that the strategy was most effective when applied close to market opening times.
S&P and NASDAQ: Similar to the DJIA, these markets also showed that strategies with early-stage probe times earned higher annual returns.
Additionally, the TAIEX results demonstrated that TORB strategies earned significantly higher returns with probe times of less than 200 minutes.
2. Impressive Returns:
The study's results are compelling. Implementing the TORB strategy yielded over 8% annual returns across the tested markets. Remarkably, the TAIEX index showcased a staggering 20.28% annual return. These numbers underline the potential of TORB in maximizing trading gains.
It also found that the best probing times were shorter in the U.S. markets and longer in Asian markets.
The research demonstrated that TORB strategies yielded consistently higher returns than traditional TRB (Trading Range Breakout) strategies, with no significant results in profitability tests for all TRB strategies across the five futures markets.
To provide a clear picture, here's a summary of the daily returns for each market analyzed:
E-mini DJIA: See Table 1 from the research paper
E-mini S&P: See Table 2 from the research paper
E-mini NASDAQ and HSI: See Tables 3 and 4 from the research paper
TAIEX: See Table 5 from the research paper
The active hours, identified by peaks in PMMV and PMVR, played a crucial role in the strategy's success.
For instance, the E-mini DJIA showed peaks around 8:30 AM and 3:15 PM, coinciding with the opening and closing times of the underlying market. Similarly, peaks were observed for HSI around the opening, closing, and lunch break times.
█ Relationship Between TORB Signals and Trader Behavior
The study also examined the relationship between TORB signals and trader behavior, particularly in the TAIEX futures market.
It was observed that the daily volume for individual traders was about twice that for institutional traders. The returns of the TORB strategies were positively related to the net buy positions of institutional traders both before and after the breakout.
This suggests that by following the TORB signals, one could trade in the same direction as institutional traders and obtain positive returns.
Specifically, the returns of the TORB strategies were significantly and positively related to foreign investment institutions, both before and after the breakout, indicating that TORB signals align with the trading direction of the most informed traders in the Taiwan market.
█ Reference
Y.-C. Tsai, M.-E. Wu, J.-H. Syu, C.-L. Lei, C.-S. Wu, J.-M. Ho, and C.-J. Wang, "Assessing the Profitability of Timely Opening Range Breakout on Index Futures Markets," IEEE Access, vol. 7, pp. 32061- 32071 Mar. 2019.
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Disclaimer
*Our results are approximate. We encourage you to test the assumption yourself. We do not guarantee that you will get the same results. This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
DAX Will it drop at the top of the 1-year Channel Up?DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the previous declines within the pattern, there are high probabilities of seeing a minimum of -6.50% pull-back. That gives us a Sell Target at 16000. The absolute bottom on the long-term based on the 2023 price action is the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which formed the market Lows of March 20 2023 and October 27 2023.
If the index closes a 1D candle above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up, then we will drop the sell and buy the break-out instead, targeting 17600, which would complete a +20.90% rise from the October Low, symmetrical to the rise on the December 20 2022 Low.
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ASIA: DAX40 - Break & Retest - DepletionTIMING: Asia - After Equities Open
LEVELS: 4H Break & Retest/Head & Shoulders
SETUP/ENTRY: 15m B&R on Depletion
BONUS: RSI, 2CT
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 09/02/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
(bhs trader) learning to chart open to ideas de30 learning trends that involves germany indices. open to ideas about trend and charting
SHORT IDEAanticipating shorts lower, following bearish price action yesterday. Waiting for bearish momentum for entries short to engage.
Annotations and anticipated key levels marked on the charts.
Once the stop level of 17023 is breached, the idea is invalidated.
As usual, manage risk and conserve capital.
Let us tackle this indexLooking for price to drop to the breaker block or further more to the demand zone to activate buyers and hike all the way up to the buy side liquidity...
German40 to continue downAfter our first idea achieved its goal the entry point is valid right now as well for continuation of the fall. Going in again for RR 1:5
