[DAX30] Short ContinuationNew entry for the swing short position, very small SL for a big potential.
Great trade !
DAX trade ideas
2024-01-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and happy new year.
comment: Xetra (futures are currently trading 143 points higher) closed the year 2024 below 20000 and bulls could not get a decent bounce during the most bullish days of the year. My base assumption for the next days/weeks is a bigger second leg down which will leave no doubt that this bull trend is over and investors would be lucky to see 2025 close near 20000. There is a much greater chance of a decent bear year where market corrects a big chunk of the past 2 years and then moves sideways for the rest of the year.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19600 - 20200
bull case: Very weak price action by the bulls the past week. We have a big open gap between 20032 - 20241 and until bulls close that, bears are in control. If bulls manage to close above 20000 again, the odds of closing the gap will be good. We have the start of 2025 and you never know which side it will turn. Both 2023 and 2024 saw huge inflows and the start of the year also marked the low of the year. Bulls hope this time will be the same but I have big doubts about that.
Invalidation is below 19800.
bear case: Bears are in control. Decent two-legged pullback after the sell-off, we are trading below the daily 20ema and the bull bars last week were bad buys for the bulls. Bears expect a bigger profit taking to take place over the next days and another leg down to at last 19200 or even 19000. Their next target is a close below the breakout point 19660 to confirm the first leg and I doubt many bulls will hold long below 19600 because we could go and test the bull trend line around 19200. I can’t see this breaking much below 19000 for now because that price was tested so much between October and December, that we will likely go sideways there for many days.
Invalidation is above 20150.
short term: Neutral around 19900. Bearish below 19800 and uber bearish below 19600 for 19200 or lower.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Market was closed
DAX // The last one of 2024Dear Traders,
This is the last one this year.
I want to have a break and detach from the charts for some time now.
This is the time of love, family&friends.
But this chart actually shows the market phases I define quite well!😀
Thanks for you support in the past couple of weeks, since I became actve here!
@TradingView asks us wishes recently... My wish for you is:
patience
discipline
balance
focus &
confidence
And vast amount of pips in the piggy bank!💰
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays!🎄
Peter from The Market Flow 🏄🏼♂️
P.S. you may want to check out some of my ideas to get familiar with the terminology I use.
———
We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds.
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
Bullish bounce?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 19,678.38
1st Support: 19,487.74
1st Resistance: 19,978.37
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Ger40, Caution advised for the perma bulls!!We've completed a large overarching turquoise structure, reaching the target levels. Simultaneously, we've hit the target levels of the orange structure and reacted immediately. This indicates we might head down to the OCL (Overall Correction Level) to gather new momentum.
So, I anticipate a possible scenario where we first gain some upward momentum (as indicated in the green box) before turning and heading downward. Caution is advised for those who believe the German economy will continue to grow without corrections, as we are currently in a significant correction phase.
Bearish pullback!Dax is experiencing a transition from a bull run, into a bearish correction. The indice may drop and find momentum on the nearest and inherent support structures to kick star the upside move again. If price fails to drop and stabilises above the 20k zone, bullish continuation will continue.
GER40/DAX "GERMANY 40" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GER40/DAX "GERMANY 40" Indices Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
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however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 3H period, the recent / nearest high level.
Target 🎯: 19,300 or Before 19,400
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Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Economic Factors:
Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China and the US, could negatively impact German exports and growth.
Trade tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China, as well as between the US and the EU, could negatively impact German exports and growth.
Brexit uncertainty: The ongoing Brexit process could lead to uncertainty and volatility in the European markets.
Monetary Policy Factors:
ECB's monetary policy: A less accommodative monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), potentially leading to higher interest rates, could negatively impact the index.
Interest rate differential: A widening interest rate differential between the US and the EU could lead to a stronger USD and weaker EUR, negatively impacting the index.
Geopolitical Factors:
EU political instability: Political instability in the EU, potentially driven by a more fragmented European Parliament, could negatively impact the index.
Global geopolitical tensions: Escalating global geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, could negatively impact the index.
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any decisions.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
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DAX H4 | Falling to overlap supportDAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,678.29 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,446.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 20,002.09 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 19,681.24
1st Support: 19,244.23
1st Resistance: 20,427.78
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DAX // minor long trendThe correction of the daily short impulse on H4 forms the minor long that that is valid.
The main H4 breakdowns (aqua) and the daily breakdown zone (orange) are the targets of this long trend, but it is a minor one, so it can turn south any time, and if the H4 impulse base is crossed down significantly, the next targets become valid in the short countertrend.
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
———
We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds.
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
My view and target for DAX 40 for 27.12.24Hi guys, How are you doing? Merry Christmas
** The time frame is the daily
** The bule curved lined indicates to the points of support which the index HAS to settle on and as you see, it went there to touch by long wick which is not enough for me! should be by a body or to go down than these points then to bounce back up and settle on again, however, I personally believe that even after the index will go to my TP, these points will not hold and the index will continue go further moves to the downside, but it is early still to judge on now.
** The previous daily candles wicks have to be filled which is supporting my idea too.
** Please zoom out and open your daily frame chart then you van have a better understanding on your charts!
** Good luck always
Note:
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
Plain&SimpleDax40 has formed a curvature which price has failed to penetrate to the upside. This has led price to fall under and face rejection by the 50 day moving average. Traders that are conditioned to chart pattern recognition will quickly notice that price structure has formed a textbook *inverted cup&handle*… And as we can all see, the 50 day moving average is looking to cross downward over the 200 day moving average. Experienced traders are aware what this phenomenon means…..
Based of previous held support and retracement, price is likely to hold major support for the pending falling at 19100-19080….
50ma{blue} 200ma{red}
comment, questions &concerns…
WHAT TO LOOK FOR ON GER 40Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a like or comment!
Let’s master the market together. Please share your thoughts and encourage us to do more by liking this idea.
DAX Rebound Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DAX is trading in a strong
Long-term uptrend and
Has made a local bearish
Correction but as the price
Is about to retest the horizontal
Support level of 19,600 we
Will be expecting a rebound
And a further bullish continuation
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Bearish drop?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 19,953.44
1st Support: 19,614.24
1st Resistance: 20,192.48
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish rise off 50% Fibonacci support?DAX40 (DE40) is currently reacting off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 19,665.45
1st Support: 18,980.32
1st Resistance: 20,494.80
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GER30: Key Pivot Points Dictate Next MoveHello,
FX:GER30 may experience further downside, potentially retesting the 1M pivot point if the 1D pivot point continues to act as resistance. However, if the 1D pivot point holds as support, an upward move could be on the horizon.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax xetra - outlook 2025
comment: We look at the chart from the beginning of the current bull trend in 2022-10. Dax has gained 71% while German GDP is now negative for two consecutive years. The bull trend has 3 clear and big legs up. The upper and lower trend lines were respected and we have seen an acceleration upwards in the last leg. This is not the start of a new and stronger one but the climactic ending which traps the weak & late traders. These are the people who started gambling with Bitcoin as it hit 100k because they wanted some of that fairy dust.
A healthy correction would be around 20% which is very close to the 50% retracement of this whole trend, the 2023-11 previous ath and the big bull trend line from the Covid lows. More than enough magnets to test down to that price around 16000. How will we get there? Absolutely no idea and all of my drawings with a potential wave series, are just rough guesses how I think it could potentially play out. Sometimes those are accurate and other times they are way off. It’s a good habit of anticipating what markets could do and take the trade if they do it.
Final thoughts. Buying the dax above 19000 hoping for a new and stronger trend upwards because surely this time it’s different, is as unwise as can be if you want to invest your money. Meaning buying and holding or trading on a daily/weekly chart. The odds of this breaking above two major trend lines while we already made 70%+ without any meaningful correction, are so slim that the only reason your are doing it is because of FOMO.
current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 18780 will be the confirmation.
key levels for 2025: 16000 - 20000 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again)
bull case: 2 years, 70%+. What more can you dream of? No matter how you draw your technicals on the chart, you can only see this as bullish, if you think we can break strongly above the two upper trend lines and go for 25000 or more. That is trading on hope and nothing else. If you have bought any dip the past two years you were never wrong and that is why we have so many articles about “this time it’s different”. In a bull trend, everyone is a genius. I can not come up with any legitimate reason why this should go meaningful above 20600. The absolute best I can do for this section is that we will likely see a lot of sideways price action at the big magnets. 19000 will be the first over the next days/weeks and at this point, we can’t expect the bulls to just give and let the market melt through those prices. BTFD mentality has been profitable and it will take a while or a huge drop, before it ends and we shift to STR (sell the rips).
Invalidation is below 14600. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 12000 again.
bear case: Peak bullish sentiment and option positions over the past weeks can only go on for so long before the market reverses big time. It’s perhaps because there is literally no one left to buy because everyone and their dog went max long. The chart is clear and the downside risks are much greater than any coke-induced perma-bull argument on why the markets will break higher another 10-20%.
Bears short term targets are the weekly 20ema near the small bull trend line around 19000. There we can probably expect more sideways movement before we get another impulse down to the huge support around 17700. My chart is a best guess about price but the timing could be way off. My biggest target for 2025 is the 2011-11 previous ath 16290, which is very close to the 50% retracement of this bull trend. There is also the big bull trend line from the Covid low and I expect this to be tested in Q1 or Q2 2025.
Invalidation is above 20700.
short term: The year end rally could give us another new ath or lower high. It does not matter because the upside will probably be very limited. My highest price is 20700 give or take. I fully expect 19000 to be hit over the next 2-6 weeks.
medium-long term: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None but I think any short ETF, levered or not, is reasonable. Short term is 19000 and medium term (2-5 months) is 17000-18000.
