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Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) To Hit 6,124 First, Then 8,660SSE had a rally from 2005 to 2007 establishing the all-time high of CNY 6,124. After that, the price had built a weird corrective structure with ups and downs fading in magnitude over a very long period of time. It took 17 years to complete the giant contracting triangle (white ABCDE marks). The pattern was broken to the upside this summer. This is the first harbinger of possible reversal and potential rally. The confirmation we wait is the breakup of the peak of wave D beyond CNY 3,724 The conservative target for the upcoming rally is located at the all-time high of CNY 6,124 The ultimate target is set at the equal distance of blue wave (A) in blue wave (C) at CNY 8,660
SLong
by aibek
Who Gets Rich in China's Market Rally?On September 24th, China announced an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, aiming to rescue its ailing economy. As soon as the news got out, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on September 24th to close at 3,336.5 on September 30th, up 19% in a week. One-month return for the SSE and notable Chinese stocks are listed here: • SSE: +17.5% • Yonghui Supermarkets: +59.9% • JD: +51.3% • BABA: +32.5% • BIDU: +25.5% China's stock market is closed on October 1-7 to observe the National Day holiday. Social media is floating a lot of fairytales about who made a big fortune in the last week of September. Here are two of the stories: The first one is about MINISO, a boutique Chinese department store chain with over 5,000 stores worldwide. It is listed on the NYSE under the stock symbol $MNSO. On September 23rd, MINISO announced that it would acquire 2.67 billion shares of troubled supermarket chain Yonghui Supermarkets (601933.SH), at RMB 2.25 per share. The next day, China announced the stimulus package, and all stock prices shot up. On September 30th, Yonghui closed at RMB 3.63, up 1.38 yuan or 61.3% from a week ago. With the acquisition of 2.67 billion shares, MINISO stands to make a profit of RMB 3.68 billion, equivalent to US$200 million (at USD/RMB exchange rate of 7.09). MINISO could sit on the nice profit for three months and do nothing. It does not have to remit payment for the acquisition until Q1 2025. Is this just good luck or what? The second story is about Michael Burry of Scion Capital, a Wall Street outcast made famous by Michael Lewis’ bestseller, the Big Short, and the hit movie with the same title, with Christian Bale portraying Burry. Recent SEC filing shows that as of the end of Q2 2024, Scion’s largest stock holding is BABA, accounting for 22% of its fund. JD and BIDU are its fourth and fifth holding, respectively. Each is for about a 12.5% share. For an unknown reason, the Big Short turned into a Big Long with nearly half of its investment concentrating on Chinese stocks. With a timing precision, Burry scooped them up cheap just before they popped. Is this superb stock picking skill, or just luck? Would the China rally continue when the market resumes trading on Tuesday? Goldman Sachs just released a research note, saying: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will crash and burn, and the economy will be a crater. If China does do QE, oil will soar, and gold and bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher. While this is presented as two alternative paths, there is only one way to go, in all practical purpose. After going all out last month with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, the Chinese government could not afford to see the stock market and the housing market to tank again. It really needs to finish the job by injecting financial stimulus into the economy. Now that the market sensation has already turned positive, government spending would trigger consumer spending as well as investment from the private sector. Such a multiplier effect could lift the Chinese economy higher. Happy Trading!
SLong
by JimHuangChicago
Shanghai Composite. 'Arctic Fox' leaps on Shanghai street cornerReal estate has made China rich in recent years and decades. Now it looks more like radioactive kryptonite from the DC Comics universe - the birthplace of Superman. Three months earlier, China's house prices fell 0.4% in a month, according to official statistics released in November 2023, the steepest drop since February 2015, according to Bloomberg data . It was one sign that a key engine of the world's second-largest economy is still faltering despite Beijing's multiple stimulus packages. At the same time, prices for secondary housing fell by 0.6% in October, which is the highest figure in nine years. According to the Cato Institute data , private property accounts for 1/4 of China's total gross domestic product and nearly 70% of all household wealth. This means that falling house prices have become a serious burden on the economy. The situation is exacerbated by a seemingly endless debt crisis that has left the country's two largest property developers on the brink of collapse, with both Evergrande and Country Garden defaulting on bond repayments in recent years. Evergrande serves as an example of how an industry that contributed to China's economic boom and prosperity for decades has become toxic and has become a point of weakness and decline. The company was founded in 1996 and built huge residential complexes in the city center, helping to accelerate China's shift away from a socialist agrarian economy. The company eventually expanded beyond real estate, opening separate businesses selling bottled water and electric vehicles, and in 2010 it bought a Chinese soccer club that would go on to become the country's most successful team. These days, the former giant is struggling for cash and facing liquidation. China's fragile housing market is back in the spotlight at the start of 2024, following the release of a batch of fresh statistics. China's troubled property market ended last year with the worst decline in new home prices in nearly nine years, despite government efforts to prop up a sector that was once a key driver of the second-largest economy. New home prices in December showed their sharpest fall since February 2015, while property sales measured by area fell 23% in December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday, January 17, 2024. Of the 70 cities included in the NBS house price data, 62 reported falling prices. Markets immediately responded with a strong decline, exacerbating the accumulated negative returns since the start of 2024. Big China Indices Crash by Mid-January, 2024 At the same time, property developer investment in December fell year-on-year at the fastest pace since at least 2000, according to Reuters calculations based on NBS data. Overall, real estate investment fell 9.6% in 2023, roughly matching the decline in 2022. Several Chinese developers, including China Evergrande Group HKEX:3333 and Country Garden HKEX:2007 defaulted on their offshore debts and entered into restructuring processes. Country Garden, the country's largest private real estate developer, warned this week that it expects the real estate market to remain weak into 2024. The technical main chart is dedicated to the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, which, judging by the current scenario, will experience far from the best year in its history, as a result of the index breaking down its narrowing multi-year range. // Photo: “Arctic fox” leaps on Shanghai street corner . 💡 February, 2024 Notes 👉 Chinese stocks are falling for the 6th month in a row by February 2024 against the backdrop of the weakness of the Chinese economy, while SSE:000001 Shanghai Composite Stock Index fell below its 200-month SMA for the first time in its history. 👉 An extremely rare Bearish Super Combo in the Chinese financial market of 6 consecutive monthly declines is the result of disappointment with economic data and PRC government measures to support the economy. 👉 Industrial activity in China fell for the fourth month in a row in January, official data showed on Wednesday. PMI indexes point to a bleak picture of continued contraction in manufacturing, roughly unchanged activity in the services sector and a slowdown in construction, Nomura analysts said. 👉 Weak economic recovery and limited support measures have affected investor sentiment. The Hang Seng Tech Index of Hong Kong-listed tech giants HSI:HSTECH fell 20% in January, while Hong Kong-listed shares of mainland property developer Hang Seng index fell 19%.
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by PandorraResearch
The case for investing in ChinaThe case for investing in China I have had discussions on this platform about my investments in China, the overwhelming response I get is negative. In this article I would like to try and provide an objective, data focused case to invest in China. In a soon coming article I will look at the opposite position and the potential risks of investing in China. Less competition The first reason to consider investments in China is that there are less people searching there, and as a result more opportunities. Approximately 10%-15% of Chinese citizens own or invest in stocks. With so few people even looking at the Chinese market the amount of stocks trading below fair value is greater than that in my home country of the United States. Valuations The idea that there are more opportunities is reflected in the average valuation of Chinese equities. A metric I like to use for broad valuations is the CAPE ratio. It can be understood as the P/E ratio using 10 years of earnings. This ratio is used in an attempt to disregard cyclical earnings changes. worldpopulationreview.com The above link is the current CAPE ratios of countries around the world based on the most recent available data. At the current date 08/23/2024 China has a CAPE ratio of 13. This is compared with a CAPE ratio of 28 in the United States. In the following article I often refer to is data showing the average returns when investing at different CAPE ratios. In short the data shows that there is a substantial correlation between valuations and subsequent investment returns. www.lynalden.com Economic Data Now there are many things to discuss in this section so I will do my best to keep it brief and to the main points on why I invest in China. Personal Savings Rate : China's personal savings rate averages around 40%. This is in contrast to the United States at 3.5% consistently. Balance of Trade: Since the year 2000 China has maintained large trade surpluses as a result of their massive manufacturing output (30% of global manufacturing capacity). This is a result of their hybrid state and market run economy. China's protectionist industrial policy allowed them to develop their own local industry offering the only real competitors to Silicon Valley tech firms. In contrast the United States has had a trade deficit since the 1980's forcing us to de-industrialize and in return create a fictionalized economy based on debt and speculation. The US system requires constant inflows of capital to maintain it's currency and economic supremacy. These are the two data points I would point to to get an idea of why China has overtaken the US as the worlds largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (their local currency) as well as the two points I bring up the most. I hope I have given a different perspective of the Chinese economy. Stay tuned for the bearish case of investing in China, and have a great day!
SLong
by sihen999
The Looming Chinese Bond Market BubbleThe Chinese bond market is showing signs of a bubble, with rapid declines in bond yields and aggressive government interventions. Despite these warnings, some investors remain bullish due to a lack of alternatives. A potential burst could lead to significant financial instability, economic slowdown, and global market contagion. Key Indicators of a Bubble: Excessive Price Appreciation: Sharp decline in bond yields suggests prices are detached from fundamentals. Speculative Behavior: Investors are driven by limited alternatives rather than solid valuations. Government Intervention: Actions to cool the market indicate concern over potential instability. Potential Impacts of a Burst: Chinese Market: Financial instability, economic slowdown, and currency depreciation. Global Market: Contagion risk, increased volatility, and a global economic slowdown. Chain Reaction of a Burst: 1. Bond Prices Decline: Losses for bondholders. 2. Financial Institutions Suffer: Liquidity problems for banks. 3. Credit Crunch: Reduced lending. 4. Economic Slowdown: Dampened economic activity. 5. Currency Depreciation:*Inflationary pressures. 6. Global Contagion: Destabilization of global markets. Conclusion: The Chinese bond market's bubble risk demands close monitoring. Government interventions have provided temporary stability, but underlying economic issues need resolution to prevent a severe crisis. Investors should brace for potential volatility.
SShort
by signalmastermind
THE MOST Bullish chart you will see today!Is of the Shanghai composite. A beautiful HVF is nearing pattern triggering,. Early accumulation is probably warranted! Isn't now the most bearish FUD, over the Chinese economic miracle you have ever seen in a lifetime. The chart is telling a different story of consolidation of its extreme growth and continuation of it's remarkable rise. A quadrupling on the index means some of the underling securities will yield life changing gains. I haven't done any due diligence on individual names But an #ETF to keep an eye on is #KWEB Which is a basket of Chinese internet stocks.
SLong
by BallaJi
2
SSE breakthrough with increasing volumeSSE down 60% from ATH, now is near -50% Price 3000…3100 = strong battle zone, favoring long trend Daily volume rising The SSE has experienced a 60% drawdown from its all-time high, now hovering close to the -50% mark. The index price range of 3000 to 3100 is indicative of a significant battleground, with momentum favoring a sustained upward trend. Moreover, daily trading volume is on the rise, suggesting increased market activity and potential further price movement.
SLong
by lemonfisherman
1
Chinese equities — seemed to have bottomedChinese equities — seemed to have bottomed and look primed for a breakout on the EMA Ribbons which usually confirms a buy signal. Also the additional liquidity being pumped in the Chinese market is fueling the recovery as measured by M2 and the Quantitative Easing as measured by the Chinese Central bank Balance Sheet. Price targets are at the FIb 0.5 level at 3165 and if they breakouts then next price target is at 0.618 level at 3290
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by JK_Market_Recap
1:13 RR Long Trade - BullishTargeting the all time highs as a minimum. It should well exceed this long term so the 1:13 risk to reward ratio is a conservative estimate. I'm not sure how long this move will take, but I do not see the price breaking below that orange zone again on daily closing basis. The line forecasts (orange and green) are very rough approximations of how I expect this to unfold. There are monthly cycles approximately every 60 months on average. So the next cycle low is expect to come in 60 months time.
SLong
by TipsOfPips
Shanghai Comp SHCOMP ~ Bearish H&S Update (Feb 2024)SSE:000001 chart mapping/analysis. Been a while since I've published any charts on TradingView - process is a pain in the a$$ tbh & procrastination crept in while lacking TA-edge on markets + other commitments.. That said, noticed Shanghai Comp chart still notching views given current environment so thought I'd give an update. Initial TA thesis hasn't changed - bearish H&S identified in Dec 2023 completed & still in play, despite PBOC desperately throwing everything to keep their market afloat (don't fight the trend). Chart notes: Cleaned up clutter from previous chart Added descending parallel channel for potential bounce play off lower trend-line Labelled 50/200 EMA death cross to signify bear market trend (weekly chart) Break below ~2666 = further capitulation Break above ~2924 (R1) = bullish trend reversal Stay tuned whether I get back on TradingView horse & update older charts or publish new ones, cheers.
SShort
by BlueHatInvestor