Top40 rejecting the 50 day EMAThe top40 index rejecting the 50 day EMA. signaling it wants to go test the H&S neckline yet again. 200 week EMA holding quite strongly.
J200 trade ideas
SA Top 40 Index - ShortI see a bullish trend reversal and head and shoulders formation pattern taking shape.
This is supported by a stronger dollar and rolling blackouts locally, exacerbated by higher local inflation - sentiment is sour.
Will add to my TFSA lower down.
Let me know your thoughts?
JSE Top 40 IndexJSE TOP 40 INDEX - Strong upside follow-through from support between 56823 and 57482 - the range we discussed last week (circled area). The index reclaimed the 8-day EMA and has closed in line with the flat 21-EMA. At current levels, I'm expecting a consolidation (after yesterday's strong rebound). The rating has shifted from WEAK to NEUTRAL while the index is trading in the mid-point of the 2 std deviation 20-day linear regression channel.
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Does this bear still have another 27% odd fight in it?Dangerous looking head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. Who's target. is around 41.2k mark.
Given that interests rates are jogging along higher, recession etc. This bear might have some decent wind at its back. IF the bears can break below the 51.5 neckline on the weekly chart. The odds of the target rises
Albeit it will bump into a bunch of dead cats along the way
T40On Tuesday, I highlighted support for the index between 56823 and 57482. Subsequently, the index continued to trend lower as anticipated while at yesterday’s lows, it found support in the middle of this range. With markets rallying off the low, the likelihood is that the Top 40 continues to make a bullish reversal off this level.
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J200 daily chart bearishness resumesJ200 hit major resistance yesterday and today confirms the resumption of its bear market
Dead Cat Bounce on JSE ALSI 40 I'm not enjoying the bear market, but we can't deny the charts and what we see.
It's most likely just a Dead Cat Bounce before we get further downside...
We can do nothing but sit on our thumbs...
ALSI - Relief rally - ALSI bulls managed to hold the major trendline for now and a relief rally is playing out
- Will be watching closely to see how we react at key resistance levels in this corrective phase
JSE Top40: Daily & Weekly Cycle Low PointThe JSE Top40 index is seeking a daily cycle low with high odds of a weekly low. Price is reversing from the orange trendline that has supported price through the cycle decline. To confirm a a daily cycle price must move & close above the pink trendline on a daily timeframe.
JSE Top 40 IndexJSE TOP 40 - WEEKLY CHART - Update
- a view presented over the past few weeks (see attached)
- line A_B was breached
- prior demand/supply incoming.
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SA40cash ALSI 3 day IHS patternALSI top40cash cash is forming a bottoming IHS pattern over the last 3 days, solid breakup above 58200 will confirm the pattern
T40In my research report for Monday 12 September, I highlighted the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone as a resistance level. Since then, the index is lower by over 6100 points or -9.7%.
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JSE Top40JSE:J200 is back at the recent lows (58.6K-ish). Most stocks are weak, what are the odds that the Top40 can bounce here? Add the middle of nowhere low near 56K. Rough market.
ALSI SA40cash chart updateafter loosing the 59300 support today, ALSI now looks to the next target which is about 1.50% lower (875pts)
JSE Top 40 IndexA slide from today's research report, published to clients yesterday evening:
Unchanged From Last Week 12 September. Line A_B is a key risk level over the medium term. As previously noted, there is a clear supply zone that has been in place since Q1 2021. This level also represents the (former) supply and (current) demand zone extending back to November 2017. A downside breach of line A_B would increase the odds of a test of prior supply-demand zone.
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J200 ShortTop 40 Downside Model. Break of support structures will see more pain in equities.
Fundementals: USD strength, EM weakness, FOMC (75?100?) CPI Sep?
South Africa.
A Sound of Thunder.
Should affect commodities.
Commodity index, the commodity boom is heading towards its logical end.
EWI believes that this is an impulse, however, it can take the form of a multiple zigzag.
At the moment it is at the levels corresponding to the end of the plane in X of the multiple zigzag.
ALSI top40cash bearish flag breaking to downsideALSI has formed a bearish flag over the last 2 sessions that projects a target down to about 61200 level, this could take a few days to get there, however trading above 63000 negates the pattern.
JSE Top 40 Index - Seasonality Data For September (Over 20 Yrs)JSE Top 40 Index - Seasonality Data For September (Over 20 Years)
- Average % return is -0.96%
- *Only* 7 out of 20 Septembers have delivered a positive return.
- Largest gain: +9.77% (2005)
- Largest decline: -14.91% (2008)
JSE Top 40 Index August SeasonalityJSE Top 40 August Seasonality Data - 20 Years - AVERAGE PERFORMANCE is +0.80%
AUG: In the past 20 Years, 12 August's have delivered a positive return.
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JSE Top 40: DataOver a 7-year period, there have been 14 weeks (including last week) where the index returned more than 4.5%.
The average return in the subsequent week is -0.07%.
Largest decline was -3.06%.
Largest gain was +4.34%
6 of the subsequent weeks saw a positive return, while 7 saw a negative return.
