ALUMINIUM - LONGMCX:ALUMINIUM1! Weekly parabolic formation indicates medium term FAST 2 FURIOUS movements possible. Entry may be take one to two months for macd crossover. From here 60% upward moves possible.
AN1! trade ideas
ALUMINIUM FUTURES (ALUMINIUM1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 224.00
Pivot: 217.75
Support : 208.80
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline which supports our bearish bias that price will rise and drop from our pivot at 217.75 in line with the overlap resistance, 23.6% fibonacci retracement , 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 208.80 in line with the -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break through pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance level at 224.00 in line with the swing high resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: As aluminum supply is being squeezed by soaring demand, we have a bullish view on aluminum.
Aluminium Futures
The overall trend appears to be transitioning from a downtrend into a new uptrend.
Current Price Position: The price is currently testing the upper Bollinger Band, which suggests increased volatility. If the price continues to close near or above this upper band, it could indicate strong bullish pressure. However, if the price gets rejected at the band, it could indicate a pullback.
Support Levels: The 20-day moving average (middle Bollinger Band), which is currently acting as support, lies around INR230.
Resistance Levels: The recent high near the upper Bollinger Band, around INR241, is acting as short-term resistance. A breakout above this could push prices towards higher levels.
The volume bars show higher buying interest during recent bullish candles, indicating that buyers are stepping in to support the upward movement.
Bullish Candles: Recent large bullish candlesticks suggest strong buying pressure. Look out for a close above the recent high (INR241.85) for further confirmation of the trend.
Short-Term Outlook: Aluminium Futures are showing bullish momentum in the short term. A break above the current resistance at INR241 could lead to further gains.
Potential Pullback: Watch for any rejection near the upper Bollinger Band for signs of a pullback, possibly towards INR230.
Long-Term Outlook: As long as the price remains above key support levels and moving averages, the medium- to long-term trend is bullish.
Can Aluminum Break Out? As geopolitical risks continue to cast a shadow over both equities and commodities, it is essential to recognize the crucial roles commodities play during times of conflict and the potential implications of any escalation on specific commodities.
Aluminum, valued for its malleability, corrosion resistance, and capacity to be intricately machined, finds application in the production of machinery and equipment parts, as well as in the aerospace and defense industries for aircraft components, missile structures, and military vehicles.
China holds the dual distinction of being the largest producer and consumer of aluminum, making China's trajectory a critical factor influencing the industrial metals market going forward.
With the Chinese industrial and manufacturing sector poised for a rebound, the expansion could potentially benefit industrial metals as a whole, such as copper and aluminum.
In terms of technical analysis, aluminum has recently exhibited the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder ranging from 2090 to 2115, the head at 2075-2078, and the right shoulder at 2165.
To see more buying activity, a decisive break and close above the significant resistance level of 2380-2450 is crucial. Conversely, if the market fails to break and close above this level, substantial support can be expected within the shoulder range of 2090 (left) to 2165 (right).
A break and close below these levels may lead to a test of the most recent lows (the inverse head) at 2075-2078.
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Precious Metals Schematics: A look into the Macro with FibonacciI have Listed Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Aluminum, and Gold into one chart. These are 6 of the top Metals all in Heikin Ashi Candle form.
They all have their own complex Fibonacci Clusters within each one. It may look confusing at first. But understand that one set of lines are horizontal extensions and another set are angled extensions within each one.
Tailwinds build for Aluminium Paradoxically, aluminium was one of the worst performing base metals over the past month (22 May to 23 June 2023) despite the bauxite ore ban potentially tightening the market. In 2022, Indonesia produced some 21 million tonnes of bauxite, according to data from the US Geological Survey, making it the world’s fifth-largest producer. Almost 85 percent was exported overseas. According to data from the International Aluminium Institute, global production of primary aluminium registered a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month in May 2023. The information portal Shanghai Metals Markets has reported that aluminium producers in the Yunnan region in China have been permitted since 17 June to ramp their operations up again after having been forced to scale them back since last autumn because electricity was rationed due to
drought. However, the ongoing heatwaves in many parts of China may drive production halts back again.
Aluminium futures inventory is 21% lower than 3 months ago, mainly as a result of Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory declining over that time window.
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aluminum US plans 200% tariff on Russian aluminum this week
The United States is preparing to impose a 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum as early as this week to keep pressure on Moscow, Bloomberg reported (www.bloomberg.com), citing people familiar with the situation.
The move has been under consideration for months, the sources said, adding that the US is also targeting the Russian metal because Moscow has been dumping aluminum on the US market and harming American companies.
President Joe Biden has yet to formally authorize the action, though there have been concerns in the administration about collateral damage to US industries, including aerospace and autos.
Russia is a significant source of material for the American market and the world's second-largest producer of aluminum outside of China, meaning such steep tariffs would effectively end US imports of the metal from Russia, potentially hurting American buyers.
ALUMINIL Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ALUMINIL is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 211.00, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 201.40, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 230.10, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
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Aluminum Futures ( ALUMINIL ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuaTitle: Aluminum Futures ( ALUMINIL ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 218.00
Pivot: 211.00
Support: 201.40
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ALUMINIL is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 218.00, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 211.00, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ALUMINIUM - buy positionThe daily chart of aluminum indicates the end of a five-wave bearish trend, and given the break of the two-to-four channel, at least a heavy upward correction is expected.
This scenario is fully consistent with the general growth of commodities due to the change in China's corona policy.
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#ALUMINIUM Weekly Major Support & Resistance Levels.Providing Weekly Support and Resistance levels for next coming week based on Central Pivot Range and its major support & resistance levels of week, where price can take support and face resistance. Three black lines indicating weekly Central Pivot Range. Previous week high & low also performs as a major support and resistance levels. Can take long & short positions according to how price perfoms at particular given support & resistance levels.
Commodities ALUMINIUM Short Trade Thirty Minutes Time Frame30MTF
Short
Indicatrors: Bollinger bands , 200EMA , RSI
Bollinger bands 20Moving average rejection
Price closed below 200EMA
RSI Below 40
Dear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support & resistance levels.
Information shared by me here for educational purpose only. Please don’t trust me or anyone for trading/investment
purpose as it may lead to financial losses. Focus on learning, how to fish, trust on your own trading skills and please do consult your
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Please do review, analyse and share your comments as well. Let us work and win together. Wish you a very happy, healthy & profitable trading day ahead!
Disclaimer: I have analysed the data based on my limited knowledge.
Aluminium commodity EuropeSun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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