TGT ToppingThis looks like a clear head and shoulders top in TGT. The neckline was tested on Tuesday and today was an inside day. Looking for follow through. A close below the 200-day moving average would probably be a great signal to go short.
0LD8 trade ideas
THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT EARNINGS; XLE, XOP, EEM PREMIUM SELLINGEARNINGS:
TGT (93/52) and COST (91/44) announce earnings next week, with a directionally neutral TGT short strangle shown here paying 3.87 at the mid price, delta/theta 1.01/9.64.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SHOWING THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE:
XLE (99/55), April
XOP (97/79), April
XMH (95/54), April
FXI (95/40), May
GDXJ (95/50), April
EWW (95/43), April
USO (91/48), April
EWZ (90/48), April
GDX (89/46), April
XLU (88/26), June
BROAD MARKET ORDERED BY RANK AND SHOWING THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE:
EFA (100/38), June
EEM (95/44), April
IWM (88/42), April
QQQ (83/47), April
SPY (80/42), May
FUTURES ORDERED BY RANK:
/GC (100/20)
/ES (113/40)
/CL (100/51)
/ZC (68/18)
/SI (68/28)
/NG (67/49)
/ZW (11/28)
VIX/VIX DERIVATES:
VIX finished the week at a whopping 40.11 with the /VX term structure in backwardation, so it's an opportunity to add short call verticals or long put verticals in VXX and UVXY if you haven't already done so. For existing spreads (I've got a few), I'll be looking to play the elevator up/down game, rolling the long call aspect of my VXX credit spreads up to lock in profit on that side of the trade and improve my break even. In all likelihood, these will eventually require rolling out for duration come April opex due to the location of the short leg, but I'm fine with that. Pops can happen while you have these on, and you just need to be patient and make the best of them ... .
GENERAL MUSINGS:
For people who are into selling premium and who had large amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines, this is your "kid in a candy store" moment. Non-single name premium selling has finally become productive in that 45 day wheel house, even in broad market, where we were looking at going grotesquely long in duration last week to get paid. For those who had longer-dated premium selling setups on before this volatility expansion (points at self), well, I feel your pain. Be patient and mechanical, and some of that pain will inevitably give way to a volatility contraction going forward.
Buy TGT @ $113-$114 till 03/09/2020Buy Target Corp at current price of $113-$116 (Avg $114) and hold it approximately till 09.03.2020 to take at $125.0 (+9,6%).
Reason of the exact date of 03/09/2020 - is the Avg expected Value (Return) equal to 0.21% daily. So in average the stock will grow by 0.21% daily.
I am sure the stock will rise because of the next reasons:
1. sustainable large company one of the leaders in the industry in USA
2. the price plunge is due to the company slightly less than expected forecast for upcoming 4q statement
3. the stock is considered as defensive assset (a.k.a. safe heaven)
4. the stock price is very cheap
Although, the price can slump down to $105 per share, so my recommendation is to take more on that level.
If it slumps to $105, the average price will be $109,5 stop-loss at $103 (-6%), take profit at $125 (+14%).
Have a Good Luck!
$TGT Oversold Bounce to 122 then drop again to 105 or 90s Oversold indicators and Bounced from channel bottom (red color) suggested bounce to close recent gap at 122.5 then possible falling again to close lower gaps specially at 105 then at 90s which is about 1.6 fib from the top . if its break down red channel then will target 105 directly ..
Make the Move with Target this FebuaryTarget normally does really well around this time and the chart shows it. Past the redline is where you could put your stoploss or a bit further down.
Taking calls here would be decent, but over the green line is CONFIRMATION. Remember all lines of support and resistance are similar to rubber bands NOT metal rods. Trade carefully, NEVER be afraid to take the green.
TGT Symmetrical TriangleMACD looking good on 4 hr, higher lows, the last few candles based on close and wicks.
Trendline from August earnings at around $114 up here could offer support if it drops downwards.
RSI oversold.
Gap fill around $123 upside, around $114 downside with a secondary at around $111.
Need more data but A/D could be forming an uptrend.
Not advice.
TGT - Gaps to Fill Down - Earnings Miss - Trade Cautiously Waiting for confirmation break of white trendline to enter bearish.
Trade Entry
Will update with specifics once trend breaks.
Chart Details
Earnings miss on TGT caused gap down, almost filling top gap in chart.
Other large gaps down to $73.
Bearish EMA cross and bearish 10WeekMA price cross, but price still in “fakeout channel”.
Must confirm break of channel to indicate entry for downtrend.
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