DXY wants upBut first we retest that trendline.
Giving us a brief window for risk on.
Maybe even until Q1 2025.
Hopefully.
(I'm biased)
DOLLARINDEX trade ideas
DXY Top Bands WeeklyTop bands to Bottom bands, and I will still be bearish when its down there. Dollar has been bullish since 2008. 2024 now, it is time for the bear market. Macro chart for dollar is lower highs lower lows, right now we are on the high.
I'm bearish on dollar, and hence i'm buying GBPUSD / EURUSD for long term.
DXY/USD to strong setupUS Dollar defends its ground as markets digest FOMC minutes
In Tuesday's session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of currencies, fluctuated near 107.00 following the release of key economic data. In the meantime, markets digest President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on three of its largest trading partners and look for clues in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes from the Novemeber meeting.In Tuesday's session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of currencies, fluctuated near 107.00 following the release of key economic data. In the meantime, markets digest President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on three of its largest trading partners and look for clues in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes from the Novemeber meeting.
The US Dollar Index has exhibited a bullish bias, driven by strong economic data and a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance. Despite recent pullbacks due to profit-taking and geopolitical uncertainty, the uptrend remains intact. Technical indicators suggest potential consolidation with overbought conditions easing.
DXY Long-Term Bearish OutlookThe price has been moving within a diagonal channel since 2009, completing five waves. We anticipate that the price has been forming a corrective structure following the downward movement in October 2022.
Currently, the price may be forming Wave c of Wave (B), after which we could see a decline toward 97.81 "Wave (C)", potentially testing the lower boundary of the diagonal channel.
"DXY Technical Analysis - Bearish Correction with Potential Rebo"DXY Technical Analysis - Bearish Correction with Potential Rebound"
"The US Dollar Index (DXY) on the 4-hour timeframe has entered a bearish correction after breaking a local high. Key support levels at 106.064 and the demand zone at 104.625 are critical for potential price reactions. If the price reaches these levels, a rebound toward the resistance at 107.348 could be expected. Please note that this analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice."
This ensures a professional and clear message for a TradingView audience.
DXY potentially headed lower in coming monthsSelf explanatory.
Very long term USD bullish but in coming months potential to see a 10% pullback in the USD.
DXY - Pattern on going What do you think about this head and shoulders?
Will be completed or not? in case we will go to 0,36 fibo rebound
DXY bearish scenarioThe dollar index remains under pressure below 107.00. The 106.00 level supports the index, and we need a break below to continue on the bearish side. 105.00 level is the next target.
US October PCE Price Index PreviewToday, Australian CPI inflation numbers (Consumer Price Index) have already been seen, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced a 50-basis point (bp) cut during Asia Pac trading. In addition to Q3 24 US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data coming in unchanged, the October US PCE price index (Personal Consumption Expenditures) will hit the wires at 3:00 pm GMT and is forecast to have risen on a YY basis (year on year).
PCE Data Expected to Report Higher Numbers
Market expectations, according to Refinitiv data, suggest YY headline and core (excludes volatile food and energy prices) US PCE data has risen to 2.3% (from 2.1% in September) and 2.8% (from 2.7%), in October, respectively. Additionally, the October Personal Income and Outlays report is anticipated to show a 0.4% gain in personal income compared to 0.3% in September. This may seem surprising in light of the miserable jobs report we just had in October, though we must remember that wage growth has indeed increased.
Rate Cut Still Likely in December
PCE data are closely monitored by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and is their preferred measure of inflation. The Fed works to an inflation target of 2.0%, and assuming a higher PCE print today, this may be a little too hot for comfort and could prompt the central bank to consider hitting the pause button next month. We also have to remember that Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is not in any rush to cut rates while other Fed members have emphasised caution regarding easing policy too fast.
In my humble opinion, however, today’s PCE data is unlikely to prompt a pause from the Fed in December. Still, I feel we are now approaching a stage of a potentially shallower easing cycle, given inflation remains stubbornly north of the Fed’s inflation target. That said, should higher-than-expected jobs data be received next week, this could boost the chances of a rate hold next month and will likely underpin the US dollar (USD). Money markets are pricing in around 15 bps of easing for the December meeting (investors are assigning a 55% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps next month over a 45% probability they hold).
Seeing as both CPI and PPI (Producer Price Index) inflation numbers have already been released for October, these data help calculate the PCE figures. You will likely recall CPI inflation data came in line with economists’ estimates; however, YY headline inflation rose to 2.6% in October, increasing from September’s rate of 2.4% and marking the first upward shift since March. The largest upward contributor to CPI inflation was housing – more than half of the rise was down rising prices in housing – with food prices also rising in October. PPI inflation also increased across headline and core measures in October to 2.4% (from 1.9% in September) and 3.1% (from 2.9% in September).
While both the CPI and PCE Indexes attempt to measure consumer prices by tracking changes in the prices of a specific basket of goods and services each month, the CPI assigns a far greater weighting to shelter than the PCE Index does, which highlights that the PCE data could still fail to reach estimates.
Dollar Index Fading Range Resistance
As shown from the daily timeframe of the US Dollar (USD) Index, price action is fading quite a substantial range resistance from 107.21. This is a level the FP Markets Research Team have been watching closely for a while now, as a breakout from here could send the Index towards monthly resistance at 109.33.
However, a daily support area between 106.13 and 106.50 is currently in play, which could, given the room to run for monthly resistance, pose a problem for USD sellers.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
DXY - Correction in ProgressWe analysed DXY / Dollar few days back and it was highlighting a Bearish move. This move is in progress and so far we have a Correction Wave A & B completed. Correction Wave C might take dollar even lower depending on macro outlook i.e. ceasefire deal / Fed rate decision etc.
Best approach is to go from level to level rather than aiming for a swing move as sentiments can switch anytime.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
USDX: Trend in 2H time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
Dollar Down and Crypto PumpsHoping for DXY to drop down to the lower range and allow liquidity to keep flowing into crypto so we can keep pumping. Also watching BTC.D closely, if this breaks down and makes a new lower low then we can say with a lot more probability that Altcoin Season or Alt season is truely upon us.
Lets watch and wait! I am in a few positions, XRP/DOGE/VIRTUALS ready for the action.
Not financial advice, lots of volatility and risk out there, watch out for the bulls too.
Will the Dollar Index Redefine Global Economic Equilibrium?In the intricate dance of international trade and geopolitical strategy, the Dollar Index emerges as a critical compass navigating the turbulent waters of economic uncertainty. The article illuminates how this financial barometer reflects the profound implications of proposed tariffs by the U.S. administration, revealing a complex interplay of currencies, trade relationships, and global market sentiments that extend far beyond mere numerical fluctuations.
The proposed tariffs targeting key trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China represent more than economic policy—they are strategic maneuvers with potential seismic shifts in global trade dynamics. As the Dollar Index climbs, reflecting the U.S. dollar's strength, it simultaneously exposes the delicate balance of international economic relationships. The potential consequences ripple through supply chains, consumer markets, and diplomatic corridors, challenging the post-World War II trade paradigm and forcing nations to recalibrate their economic strategies in real time.
Beyond the immediate market reactions, these developments signal a broader philosophical question about economic sovereignty and interdependence. The tariff proposals challenge long-established multilateral agreements, potentially accelerating a transformation in how nations perceive economic collaboration. While the immediate impact is visible in currency fluctuations and market volatility, the long-term implications could reshape global economic architecture, prompting a reevaluation of the U.S. dollar's role as the predominant global reserve currency and testing the resilience of international trade networks.
Trade Recap: USDJPY - LONG, 26/11/2024UJ Bias Analysis: Not the best looking pair in hindsight, but with a clear counter-trend established to the upside, price had corrected to the 79% discount level during NY Killzone, sweeping session liquidity before entry confirmation was received.
Grade: Low Risk
What I did well or could've done better:
- Executed according to the plan and managed the position accordingly.
Dollar index and strong climbsAccording to the analysis of the dollar index, it reached the pre-announced range, but in order to achieve the future goals, it needs a correction and then climbs again.
This can start after the new year and reach the target of 120 during the presidency of Donald Trump.
What do you think about this analysis?
What symbol would you like me to analyze for you?
DXY long moveDXY chart on the 2H timeframe shows the price trading towards a demand zone, indicating bearish pressure after the earlier upside movement. The pair is approaching a key horizontal support level, a significant area that has previously acted as both support and resistance. This level also aligns with the 88.0 Fibonacci Retracement, adding further confluence for potential price reactions.
If the price breaks below this demand zone, it could signal a bearish continuation, as sellers may gain control. However, if the demand zone holds, there is potential for a bullish reversal, leading to a rebound toward the next supply zone.
DeGRAM | DXY has fallen below the retracement levelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
During the closing of the gap, the chart formed a new one and then sharply went down and closed the new gap.
The price has already reached the resistance level, the upper trend line and the upper boundary of the channel and has now dropped below the 62% retracement level.
The chart has broken the ascending structure.
We expect a decline.
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Dollar Index - Nearing the end of a correctionThe latest update is that we are trading in an A-B-C flat correction, and more precisely in the C-wave, which should develop in 5-waves as well. It appears that 3-waves have completed and we are now in the corrective 4th wave that should be followed by one last run higher that could target 108.95/109.50. If we are right, this should hopefully be the end of the Dollar’s bull run and lead to another wave of selling
DXY Poised for Potential ReversalDXY Poised for Potential Reversal
DXY tested a strong zone dating back to September 2024. The odds suggest that DXY could begin a reversal process from its current position near 107.50 - 108.00.
Based on previous analysis, DXY performed well, and the chances for a similar performance are high.
The support areas to watch are located near 106.20, 104.70, and 103.50.
However, on the bigger picture, it's expected to move down even further up to 101.00
📺You May Watch The Video For Further Details 📺
Thank you:)
Dollar still has room for push to 109Although the dollar looks overextended 109 is still possible.
There fore I expect a new lows on the EURUSD.
you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion.
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DXY: Early Black Friday Deal?Hello traders. Happy new trading week.
The Asian session kicked off the new week with quite a dramatic drop in the Dollar Index.
On the daily and 4H charts it has reached support. The weekly value i comfortably above all MA's.
I exited my EUR/USD short at the 4H close which was right at the 50% retracement of the 0.95361-1.12758.
I suspected that the dramatic drop was due to not only economic concerns but more about the Russian/Ukraine war escalation after President Biden approved the use of USA made long range missiles to be used by Ukraine. This notion was reinforced by the appreciation of the JPY, the classic safe haven currency.
There are a number of 1st tier USD economic releases due this week culminating with Eurozone CPI on Friday and RBNZ rate decision midweek. Keep an eye on those.
Far be it from me to look a gift horse in the mouth. A lot of heavy lifting was done by the big players last week by running stops on DXY to a two year high of 108.07. The illiquid conditions at the Asian session opening dropped it back to daily support.
I have shorted EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level and shorted NZD/USD at 0.5868 and keeping an eye on the next daily closing level at 0.5876.
Finally, Happy Thanksgiving to USA traders and best wishes to everyone else. TIP: The Asian session on Thanksgiving day can sometimes produce good illiquid trading opportunities. Just saying. Not investment advice.
DXY weekend forecast updateLooks like DXY is going for the external range liquidity into internal range liquidity move
