NAS100SMT divergence has developed and we are starting to see bullish price action. I expect a rally base rally here collecting a lot of pips on the way to our draw of liquidity.
US100 trade ideas
NASDAQ below its 1W MA50 after 2 years. Doom or recovery ahead??Nasdaq (NDX) broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years (since week of March 13 2023). That is a strong long-term Support, in fact it is technically the first level to look for during cyclical bull trends. So how bad can a break and/or 1W candle closing below it?
As you can see on this multi-year chart on the 1W time-frame, since the 2008 Housing Crisis, the index has had a number of breaks below its 1W MA50. With the exception of the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which was a cyclical Bear Market like 2008, all of those breaks were short-lived and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) almost instantly.
In fact, the current technical pull-back resembles the June - August 2011 correction, which after breaking below the 1W MA50, it found support and rebounded on the 1W MA100 in 2 weeks. The rebound that followed rose by +38% in 7 months. If a similar development is followed, which is what we expect, we are looking at a potential end-of-year rally to 24900. This also took place on the 2019 rally.
What makes this 17-year recurring pattern even more interesting is that technical pull-backs such as the current, tend to take place when the 1W RSI Channel Down, a technical Bearish Divergence) hits 40.00 and makes a Lower Low (green circles).
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$NAS100 may settle around 17300 @ 0.382 Fib Retracement PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is already in the correction territory with down more than 10%. If this bear market holds grip, then we might get into the bear market territory with 20% or more correction. This might be coincidental. Let’s get to the numbers behind this reasoning.
The lows on Aug 5th carry trade set back was 17300.
The Trump 1.0 tariff also send the PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 down by 23% before the market started a meaningful bounce. If we have a 23% drawdown from the top of PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 then we will be back @ 17300.
If you plot the upward sloping Fib retracement levels on PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 which we discussed in this blog on 01 March when I sounded bearish predicting a 10% downturn in the near term. Link here. The 0.382 Fib retracement level in this long term upward sloping channel lies around 17300.
Tell me coincidence but all these 3 indicators align at 17300. Will the PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 settle at 17300 before this bear market correction is done and dusted? No one knows.
Buy PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 from here till 17300.
NASDAQ 100 Elliott Wave Analysis – A High-Probability Setup in P📌 Is the NASDAQ 100 in a Bearish Impulse Wave?
Based on Elliott Wave analysis, NASDAQ 100 appears to be in Wave 3 of an ongoing bearish impulse (Wave A or 1). This setup suggests that after the current downward move, we might see a corrective structure before another leg down.
Key Insights:
🔹 Wave Structure: The first wave of this move was a leading diagonal, followed by a pullback. Now, we are likely in Wave 3, which could extend further before a corrective phase begins.
🔹 Retracement Zones: After Wave 3 completes, we expect a corrective structure (Wave 4), which typically retraces between 38.2% and 50% of Wave 3 before Wave 5 resumes.
🔹 Trading Strategy: The most favorable entry zone would be during Wave 5 of A (or 1), ideally in lower timeframes such as H1, H4, or even M15. Before entering a trade, we need to confirm a three-wave corrective structure—whether it forms a sideways correction or a complex zigzag.
📌 Critical Levels to Watch:
A break into Wave 1 territory could invalidate the impulse structure and shift the outlook.
If the corrective phase is shallow, a deeper drop may still be on the table.
🚀 Patience is key! Once the correction completes, the next move could offer a strong trading opportunity.
#NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TradingSetup #BearishImpulse
💬 What’s your take? Are we heading lower, or will the market surprise us?
NASDAQ 100 Elliott Wave Analysis – A High-Probability Setup in P📌 Is the NASDAQ 100 in a Bearish Impulse Wave?
Based on Elliott Wave analysis, NASDAQ 100 appears to be in Wave 3 of an ongoing bearish impulse (Wave A or 1). This setup suggests that after the current downward move, we might see a corrective structure before another leg down.
Key Insights:
🔹 Wave Structure: The first wave of this move was a leading diagonal, followed by a pullback. Now, we are likely in Wave 3, which could extend further before a corrective phase begins.
🔹 Retracement Zones: After Wave 3 completes, we expect a corrective structure (Wave 4), which typically retraces between 38.2% and 50% of Wave 3 before Wave 5 resumes.
🔹 Trading Strategy: The most favorable entry zone would be during Wave 5 of A (or 1), ideally in lower timeframes such as H1, H4, or even M15. Before entering a trade, we need to confirm a three-wave corrective structure—whether it forms a sideways correction or a complex zigzag.
📌 Critical Levels to Watch:
A break into Wave 1 territory could invalidate the impulse structure and shift the outlook.
If the corrective phase is shallow, a deeper drop may still be on the table.
🚀 Patience is key! Once the correction completes, the next move could offer a strong trading opportunity.
#NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TradingSetup #BearishImpulse
💬 What’s your take? Are we heading lower, or will the market surprise us?
Nasdaq 100 Drops More Than 4.0% Amid Market UncertaintyThe Nasdaq 100 index has already accumulated a loss of over 4.0% during today’s session and has declined more than 12% since its peak on February 18. The strong bearish movement remains intact as the market anticipates that the new 25% tariffs imposed on countries like Mexico and Canada could begin affecting production costs for U.S. companies. In the long run, this may lead to a low-return environment that could be unfavorable for the index.
Additionally, companies such as Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft have seen declines between 3% and 5% in recent sessions, reinforcing the bearish pressure on the Nasdaq due to their heavy weighting within the index.
Momentum Accelerates
With the strong downward bias currently present in the chart, selling pressure has been able to break through the support level at 19,700 points. However, the rapid price acceleration is beginning to have a significant impact, which could lead to short-term bullish corrections.
Oversold Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The bearish momentum has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, which could indicate a high acceleration in recent price movements.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI line continues to decline below the oversold level of 30, suggesting an imbalance between buying and selling forces.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram has dropped to levels not seen since July 2024, indicating a persistent downward acceleration without giving buyers an opportunity to regain control.
The alignment of these indicators suggests a significant acceleration of the bearish trend, which may lead to a standardization of bullish corrections in the short term.
Key Levels:
18,800 points – Near-Term Support: This level corresponds to lows not seen since September 2024. Persistent trading below this level could further accelerate the strong downward bias currently present in the chart.
19,700 points – New Resistance Zone: This level aligns with the lower Bollinger Band, which may serve as the area where potential bullish corrections could take place in the short term.
20,500 points – Distant Resistance: A neutral zone that has been tested by price movements in recent months. A sustained rally back to this level could challenge the current bearish sentiment prevailing in the market.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
US100 Analysis: Bearish Weekly Trend, Bullish Cypher PatternMarket Structure:
Timeframe:
Weekly: Bearish trend still intact.
Daily/4H: A bullish Cypher pattern has formed, offering a potential reversal opportunity.
Key Level:
The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is the ideal entry for this Cypher pattern.
Price is approaching a strong support zone at this level.
Trade Setup: US100 Long (Cypher Pattern Completion at 0.786)
Entry:
Wait for price to reach the 0.786 retracement level of the Cypher pattern.
Look for bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, RSI divergence, or a strong bounce).
Stop-Loss:
Below the X-leg of the Cypher pattern for added safety.
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 38.2% retracement from the D-leg.
TP2: 61.8% retracement from the D-leg.
TP3: Retest of the recent swing high.
Risk Management & Strategy:
Risk-Reward: Ensure a minimum of 1:2 R/R ratio for this trade.
Confluences for a Strong Entry:
Weekly Bearish Trend: But a temporary bullish retracement is possible.
Fibonacci 0.786 Level: High-probability reversal zone.
RSI Confirmation: Look for oversold conditions.
Price Action: Bullish candlestick formations before entering.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term: Expect a bullish retracement from the Cypher pattern completion at 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Long-Term: If the weekly bearish trend remains strong, watch for rejection around key resistance levels for another short opportunity.
Uncertainty and Bearish Pressure: U.S. Equities Under TrumpU.S. equities are facing a significantly more challenging landscape than initially anticipated with the arrival of Donald Trump's new administration in 2025. Contrary to some initial expectations, which foresaw a favorable environment for stock market growth driven by lower regulations and a more lenient tax policy, markets are experiencing strong bearish pressures, with the Nasdaq 100 officially entering correction territory after falling more than 10% from its recent highs.
The root of this decline lies primarily in the deep uncertainty created by the lack of clarity and consistency in the government's trade policies. Although the stated goal is to revitalize domestic industry and manufacturing through protectionist tariffs, its implementation has been chaotic and contradictory, leaving investors paralyzed, unable to plan strategic investments due to constant changes in government decisions.
In fact, one could argue that trade uncertainty might have been less damaging if tariffs had been clearly introduced from the outset and then gradually removed through diplomatic negotiations, thus avoiding the current climate of indecision. Adding to this is the pressure stemming from government plans to significantly reduce the federal workforce, heightening fears of a prolonged economic stagnation, especially after President Trump recently failed to publicly rule out a possible recession during this period, which he himself described as a "transition".
Additionally, U.S. equities, which had relied heavily on the strong performance of big tech companies—particularly those boosted by advancements in artificial intelligence—are now facing increasing competition from China, a factor that threatens to erode North America's technological supremacy and further pressure the already lofty valuations of these companies.
Looking ahead, a key factor in all this will be the Federal Reserve's response. Although the central bank has pledged caution in its monetary policy, the economic reality we appear to be heading toward could open the door for additional interest rate cuts, provided that tariff uncertainties do not trigger new inflationary pressures. The evolution of these tariffs and the clarity the Trump administration can provide will be crucial in determining the future direction of the markets.
In summary, the initial promise of growth under the new presidential term has been overshadowed by trade and economic uncertainties, which now dominate investors' agendas. The recent market performance underscores that uncertainty is, perhaps, the greatest enemy of stock market growth at this moment.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Long US100, NQ, NAS100 - Fundamental TraderLong, I have distributed my risk among these trades with proper risk management, my goal is to take some money home at end of the day, who cares about news/tarifs etc shit do...give me my money, trade to earn.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trades.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice, trade on your own risk.
Hanzo l Nas100 Structure Shatters - Key Break Confirms the Path🆚 Gold – The Way of the Silent Blade
⭐️ We do not predict—we calculate.
We do not react—we execute.
Patience is our shield. Precision is our sword.
🩸 market is a battlefield where hesitation means death. The untrained fall into traps, chasing shadows, believing in illusions. But we are not the crowd. We follow no signal but the one left behind by Smart Money. Their footprints are our way forward.
🩸 Bearish Structure Shatters
Key Break Confirms the Path – 19970 Zone
our reversal always at key level
even a reversal area is well studded
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
🔻 This is the threshold where the tides shift. If price pierces this level with authority, it is no accident—it is designed. The liquidity pool above has been set, and the institutions will claim their prize. Volume must confirm the strike. A clean break, a strong push, and the path is set.
Watch the volume. Watch the momentum. Strike without doubt
potential NASDAQ bearish reversal in the makingThe Nasdaq appears to be showing signs of a bearish reversal as technical and macroeconomic factors align against further upside. After a strong rally, the index is encountering key resistance, prompting concerns among traders about the sustainability of the recent gains.
A pinbar candlestick pattern has emerged, signaling potential downside as buyers fail to sustain momentum. Historically, such formations indicate a rejection of higher prices, often leading to further declines. Additionally, selling pressure on rallies suggests that market participants are taking profits rather than betting on continued strength.
From a momentum perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is beginning to roll over, hinting at a potential shift in trend. If this bearish momentum continues, the Nasdaq could face increased selling pressure in the coming sessions.
Beyond technicals, fundamental factors are adding to the uncertainty. The announcement of new tariffs under former President Donald Trump’s trade policies is weighing on market sentiment. Moreover, while Federal Reserve rate cuts are traditionally viewed as bullish, historical data suggests that in some cases, they coincide with economic slowdowns, leading to weaker market conditions.
Looking at key downside levels, support can be found at 18,400, where buyers might attempt to stabilize the market. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward 16,500, a critical zone where stronger buying interest may emerge.
Traders should closely monitor price action and market reactions at these levels. Confirmation of bearish signals and continued weakness in bullish sentiment could pave the way for a more extended correction. Caution is advised, with risk management strategies essential for navigating the potential downturn.
KEEP TRADING SIMPLE - NDXGood Morning, Those of you following the market would have seen that something in the world was going to happen. Yep we have it....trade war.
The market is a great predictor at investor confidence which typically means - what is going on in the world to affect their assets.
Right now we have a leg down in the NDX also in SPX & other American/Markets. The uncertainty of the trade war is causing investors to 2nd guess where they are putting their money.
Currently on this chart we are seeing a bottom start to form - You will never be able to call a bottom 100% but can get close. This would be a good spot to start accumulating stocks that are matching the trend patterns of the market. Be careful, if this is only a corrective action it would go down after its reached target, again a time to sell your stocks and wait to see where it drops. It could also reach target and consolidate which would be a great area to review trades and see what you want to keep and those you may want to sell for profits.
Thanks and have a great day!
