US30 17 JUNE 2025 TRADE IDEA Based on the current US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index) chart, the price action shows a strong bullish trend within a well-defined ascending channel that spans from mid-2023 through 2025. The index recently bounced off the mid-range zone near the 41,185 – 41,940 support levels and is now approaching a potential continuation move toward the upper resistance zone between 44,472 and 44,620. This area represents a key supply zone where price previously rejected, suggesting potential hesitation or reversal upon retest. The recent higher lows and breakout from a corrective phase indicate strong bullish structure, supported by institutional order flow—possibly driven by buy-side liquidity targeting previous highs. If the price maintains above 41,681 and creates a successful retest (break and retest confirmation), it offers a compelling opportunity for long positions aiming toward the channel top or key resistance.
From a Smart Money Concept (SMC) perspective, the market structure shifted bullish after sweeping liquidity below April's low followed by a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside. This shows strong accumulation by institutions. The demand zone formed around 41,185 – 41,681 can be considered a reaccumulation block and a potential entry point for buys on retracement.
Fundamental Context:
This week's movement must also be interpreted in light of broader geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which has implications on investor sentiment and global market volatility. Heightened tensions in the Middle East typically cause oil prices to spike and introduce risk-off sentiment. However, the Dow’s resilience suggests that U.S. investors may currently be pricing in confidence in the U.S. economy, strong corporate earnings, or the expectation that the Fed will maintain or cut interest rates if geopolitical shocks affect global demand. If tensions escalate further into military confrontation or affect major oil supply chains, we could see a temporary pullback or risk aversion across equities—including US30.
Trade Idea:
Bias: Bullish continuation (if current structure holds).
Entry Zone: Around 41,940–42,100 on a retest with bullish confirmation.
Stop Loss: Below 41,185 (structure invalidation).
Take Profit: First TP at 44,472; extended TP at 44,620 or channel top.
Invalidation: Break below 41,185 with a daily close.
In conclusion, unless the conflict between Iran and Israel leads to a sharp risk-off move, US30 appears poised for bullish continuation driven by technical momentum, strong market structure, and medium-term economic optimism. However, traders should monitor headlines closely, as escalation in the Middle East could introduce significant volatility.
