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ORO1! trade ideas

2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - We are at the last stand for the bulls before this is going to free fall down to 2500 or 2400. I have on more open bull gap to 2560 and if that is closed, there is no more support until much lower. It’s obviously max bearish but I won’t short this. r:r is not there imo. comment : Easy to write about. Either bulls reverse this very hard above 2560, or we flush down to 2500. Market made the move from 2600 to 2800 in 40 days and bears now reversed it in 9. This selling is as climactic as it get’s. A short squeeze is almost inevitable at this point. Need huge buying pressure and a give up bar for me to join the bulls. Every touch of the 4h 20ema has been sold for 2 weeks. First target for the bulls is 2600, followed by 2630 and then they still have 2 more bear trend lines to break. Really tough for bulls. If they manage those targets, market turns neutral and we will probably move sideways. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 2600 - 2700 bull case: Bullish have their do or die moment here under 2600. Reverse or flush down to 2500. Selling is overdone, which is weird since we started at overbought. Interesting times. Weekly 20ema is at 2600 and an open bull gap. This support is as good as it gets, if it fails, sell this hard. Invalidation is below 2570. bear case: Bears selling it all. Best shorts are from the 4h 20ema. Can you still sell this on the next 4h ema touch? Yes but you have to be prepared that market will make a higher low, since this is so oversold. Invalidation is above 2630. short term: Neutral until big buying pressure. Below 2570 I join the bears if we flush down. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-13 : Will do an update on the weekend. 3000 is not going to happen. If bulls are lucky, they see 2700 again but for now that’s more of a dream than a likely outcome. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 4h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Coffee soybeans oil gold11.13.24 the gold has moved down $20,000 from its high and will probably find buyers tomorrow. here there are no guarantees but it's coming to a Target area on the ABCD pattern and it doesn't have any 2 bar reversals to go higher so far today and so I'm guessing that the market will find a toolbar reversal after the end of today's market move you might even find the reversal later tonight after the market closes for a bit and then opens up later today.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
2024-11-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Neutral. In my weekly outlook I gave the pullback target 2650 and we got 2616. 2600 is the absolut lowest this should go or bulls are in trouble. Best would be to stay above 2620 and then I expect Tuesday or Wednesday another leg up. My target was 2866 but the pullback was much deeper than expected so my upper target is also coming down some. 2800 is still on the table. Will only think about getting bearish below 2540. comment : Will make this quick today. Two paths I think are valid. First one is from my weekly outlook where today was the B from the ABC. C could lead to 2800+. Alternativ is continuation of this triangle for some time. What I don’t see happening is bears breaking below 2500 and continuing down. Bulls would do best to keep this above 2600 and reverse latest from there. Selling is certainly strong enough again to expect more of it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2550 - 2800 bull case: Bulls see this as a 50% retracement of the recent climactic buying from last week. If they allow it to retest 2580 or lower, odds rise that we will continue sideways instead of higher above 2730. 2630 is the worst place to trade, given the current structure. So look for longs only on very strong momentum and a second buy signal or near 2560 again. Invalidation is below 2540. bear case : Bears are printing much better bear bars than bulls do bull bars and on increased volume at that. They want a to retest 2540 and maybe 2500. If they can get it, I doubt many bulls would continue to expect 2800 or even higher prices. Interesting day tomorrow to see where we will go from here. Invalidation is above 2720. short term: Neutral. 50% retracement of recent bull leg is 2630, so don’t trade around that price. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling anywhere was good.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Gold Set to Rally: Key Insights and Price Levels for Next WeekRecent Performance: Gold has shown remarkable resilience recently as it navigates geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite experiencing a slight downward adjustment of approximately 1.14% this month, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains intact. It has outperformed silver, indicating strong demand even in the face of market volatility and sell-offs. Concerns regarding gold miners' performance have also emerged, but the overall bullish trend persists amid rising fears of economic slowdown and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. - Key Insights: Investors should closely watch gold as it continues to reflect a robust safe-haven sentiment. The interplay of geopolitical risks and the outlook for central bank policies are critical in shaping gold's trajectory. Analysts are increasingly optimistic about gold's potential to reach the $3,000 mark, positioning it as a key asset in today's volatile financial landscape. Maintaining focus on support levels around $2,550-$2,580 will be essential for identifying buying opportunities. - Expert Analysis: Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with experts projecting upward movement for gold in the coming months, primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and increasing demand for hedging against economic instability. Potential volatility from a strengthening U.S. dollar looms, but it is expected that uplifts in geopolitical risk will drive gold’s intrinsic value higher. Analyst projections suggest that if gold breaches immediate resistance levels near $2,800-$2,900, it could mark the beginning of a stronger rally. - Sentiment Analysis: Current sentiment: 70.0 Last week: 0 Change: 70.0 Total mentions: 196 - Price Targets: Next week targets: T1: $2,800 T2: $2,900 Stop levels: S1: $2,580 S2: $2,550 - News Impact: Recent escalations in Ukraine’s military actions have contributed to heightened volatility in the market, influencing not just gold prices but also equity markets. Positive projections from financial institutions like Goldman Sachs indicate cautious optimism regarding market growth. Additionally, expected central bank interest rate cuts could further elevate gold’s appeal, reinforcing its status as a key asset amid economic uncertainty. Investors should remain alert as geopolitical developments unfold, impacting overall market dynamics.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Timeframes and Correlations in Multi-Asset Markets1. Introduction Understanding correlations across timeframes is essential for traders and investors managing diverse portfolios. Correlations measure how closely the price movements of two assets align, revealing valuable insights into market relationships. However, these relationships often vary based on the timeframe analyzed, with daily, weekly, and monthly perspectives capturing unique dynamics. This article delves into how correlations evolve across timeframes, explores their underlying drivers, and examines real-world examples involving multi-asset instruments such as equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. By focusing on these key timeframes, traders can identify meaningful trends, manage risks, and make better-informed decisions. 2. Timeframe Aggregation Effect Correlations vary significantly depending on the aggregation level of data: Daily Timeframe: Reflects short-term price movements dominated by noise and intraday volatility. Daily correlations often show weaker relationships as asset prices react to idiosyncratic or local factors. Weekly Timeframe: Aggregates daily movements, smoothing out noise and capturing medium-term relationships. Correlations tend to increase as patterns emerge over several days. Monthly Timeframe: Represents long-term trends influenced by macroeconomic factors, smoothing out daily and weekly fluctuations. At this level, correlations reflect systemic relationships driven by broader forces like interest rates, inflation, or global risk sentiment. Example: The correlation between ES (S&P 500 Futures) and BTC (Bitcoin Futures) may appear weak on a daily timeframe due to high BTC volatility. However, their monthly correlation might strengthen, aligning during broader risk-on periods fueled by Federal Reserve easing cycles. 3. Smoothing of Volatility Across Timeframes Shorter timeframes tend to exhibit lower correlations due to the dominance of short-term volatility and market noise. These random fluctuations often obscure deeper, more structural relationships. As the timeframe extends, volatility smooths out, revealing clearer correlations between assets. Example: ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) exhibit a weaker correlation on a daily basis because they react differently to intraday events. However, over monthly timeframes, their correlation strengthens due to shared drivers like inflation expectations and central bank policies. By aggregating data over weeks or months, traders can focus on meaningful relationships rather than being misled by short-term market randomness. 4. Market Dynamics at Different Frequencies Market drivers vary depending on the asset type and the timeframe analyzed. While short-term correlations often reflect immediate market reactions, longer-term correlations align with broader economic forces: Equities (ES - S&P 500 Futures): Correlations with other assets are driven by growth expectations, earnings reports, and investor sentiment. These factors fluctuate daily but align more strongly with macroeconomic trends over longer timeframes. Cryptocurrencies (BTC - Bitcoin Futures): Highly speculative and volatile in the short term, BTC exhibits weak daily correlations with traditional assets. However, its monthly correlations can strengthen with risk-on/risk-off sentiment, particularly in liquidity-driven environments. Safe-Havens (ZN - Treasuries and GC - Gold Futures): On daily timeframes, these assets may respond differently to specific events. Over weeks or months, correlations align more closely due to shared reactions to systemic risk factors like interest rates or geopolitical tensions. Example: During periods of market stress, ZN and GC may show stronger weekly or monthly correlations as investors seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, daily correlations might be weak as each asset responds to its unique set of triggers. 5. Case Studies To illustrate the impact of timeframes on correlations, let’s analyze a few key asset relationships: o BTC (Bitcoin Futures) and ES (S&P 500 Futures): Daily: The correlation is typically weak (around 0.28) due to BTC’s high volatility and idiosyncratic behavior. Weekly/Monthly: During periods of broad market optimism, BTC and ES may align more closely (0.41), reflecting shared exposure to investor risk appetite. o ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures): Daily: These assets often show weak or moderate correlation (around 0.39), depending on intraday drivers. Weekly/Monthly: An improved correlation (0.41) emerges due to their mutual role as hedges against inflation and monetary uncertainty. o 6J (Japanese Yen Futures) and ZN (10-Year Treasuries): Daily: Correlation moderate (around 0.53). Weekly/Monthly: Correlation strengthens (0.74) as both assets reflect broader safe-haven sentiment, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty. These case studies demonstrate how timeframe selection impacts the interpretation of correlations and highlights the importance of analyzing relationships within the appropriate context. 6. Conclusion Correlations are not static; they evolve based on the timeframe and underlying market drivers. Short-term correlations often reflect noise and idiosyncratic volatility, while longer-term correlations align with structural trends and macroeconomic factors. By understanding how correlations change across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can identify meaningful relationships and build more resilient strategies. The aggregation of timeframes also reveals diversification opportunities and risk factors that may not be apparent in shorter-term analyses. With this knowledge, market participants can better align their portfolios with prevailing market conditions, adapting their strategies to maximize performance and mitigate risk. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Micro Gold Futures The price of Micro Gold Futures has generally been increasing since the start of 2024, but there have been some pullbacks. Recently, the price recovered after a sharp pullback and is moving towards resistance at previous high prices. Support is around $2,600, which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and a previous consolidation zone. Resistance is near $2,800, which aligns with the upper Bollinger Band and prior highs. Recent candlestick patterns are bullish and suggest a recovery. This is further supported by increasing momentum. There isn't a clear reversal pattern yet, but you should watch for resistance near $2,800. If the price goes over $2,800 with strong volume, the uptrend may continue. If the price is rejected or a reversal pattern forms near $2,800, the price may pull back towards the moving average or lower Bollinger Band.
COMEX_MINI:MGCZ2024Long
by Sahrin
2024-11-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bullish target was met with 2650 and now it’s big decision time. Bear trend line and daily 20ema was hit. By Friday we will know which way market wants to go. Expecting sideways to down tomorrow but everything below 2600 would surprise me. comment : Very bullish week so far to potentially big resistance. My preferred path is a two legged correction and we are in the A of it. Market has to pull back soon but if bulls get above 2660, we will see 2700 soon. Last thing I want to do this week is looking for shorts in this. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2620 - 2700 bull case: Bulls are in control again. They now only need a strong close above the daily ema to make the last bears run for the exits. Can they get it before a pullback? I doubt that. Not much more magic to it. Big bull trend is still valid but the peak euphoria is over and we will likely see more bearish legs in between since bears made big money previous 2 weeks. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears who sold late are trapped, they need a pullback to get out of their position. They are at 3 very important prices. Breakout retest is around 2650-2660, daily ema is here and the 50% retracement is at 2672. If these are not good enough for the market to pull back to 2600 or lower, nothing will. Invalidation is above 2670. short term : Neutral. Expecting a pullback and then another big rally to at least 2750. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-17: Tough call for the rest of the year. If I had to guess I’d say that we rally to 2800 again before year end, just so we can sell off beginning of 2024 but it’s pure guesswork as of now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 2625, which market tried for 3 hours to close a 15m bar below and could not. Buying it was good for 350 ticks.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Is it possible for gold prices to reach $5000?Is it possible for gold prices to reach $5000? Gold reached $2,600 an ounce on Monday, recovering after a week of record declines in 2021 as the U.S. dollar stabilized. The latest U.S. data show that retail sales rose more than expected in October, revealing the strength of the economy. Last week, comments by some Federal Reserve officials added uncertainty about possible rate cuts and their timing. At the moment, markets estimate about a 65 percent probability of a 25 percent rate cut in December. Investors now focus on upcoming statements by other Fed policymakers during this week, hoping to get clearer indications of the direction of interest rates in the United States in the coming months. After the Republican candidate's victory in the presidential election, investors rushed to Wall Street to put their money in various assets, such as stocks (SP500) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD), which has soared to an impressive 90,000. However, there seems to have been one asset that did not benefit from this celebration: gold (XAUUSD). The price of spot gold (XAUUSD) fell by 6.44 percent. This decrease can be attributed to the fact that gold-usually considered a safe haven asset-is not particularly attractive when Trump's tax cut and tariff policies promise to stimulate the Wall Street stock market. Currently, the market seems unconcerned about U.S. credit risk. If excessive fiscal deficits or loss of independence were a real Gold prices have fallen significantly recently, but we expect a stop to this trend soon. Our target of $2850 in the short term remains valid. There are several options for investing in gold. One can opt for a euro ETF to protect against currency risk or choose a dollar ETF. Another interesting alternative is to buy a share in a gold mining company. One of the most interesting sectors is gold mining, particularly NEWMONT(NEM). Currently, Newmont's value is significantly underestimated at $45 per share, considering the scenario of a significant increase in the price of gold by 2025. With its vast gold reserves, low production costs, solid balance sheet, and high dividend yield, we believe the current price is an excellent entry point for investors. Based on the company's historically low P/E ratio, we suggest that there may be a 50 percent discount to its potential long-term value, with a price target between $90-100 per share over the next 18-24 months. The recent election has only confirmed my concerns about a dramatic increase in inflation rates next year. This will put a strain on foreign investors, international central banks, hedge funds and other large investors who will be looking for safe hedging. In addition, as demand for and supply of gold (and also silver and platinum) grows and dwindles, the precious metal will be increasingly in demand as a “store of value” and “safe currency,” likely driving prices well above $3,000 an ounce in 2024. During Trump's first term, which ran from January 2017 to January 2021, investors who owned gold and Newmont stocks reaped significant benefits. With tax cuts, the Fed's growth in money printing, and the adoption of trade tariffs, the perfect combination to encourage safe gold-related investments has repeated itself. And this scenario could well repeat itself in the future. At the geopolitical level, current tensions in the Middle East and the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia could lead to an increase in safe-haven assets, providing further support for the gold price. In addition, with the continued risk of conflict between Taiwan and China, gold prices could exceed $4,000.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito
A bearish outlook on Gold: Waiting for the right entry pointsRecent Performance: Gold has displayed signs of volatility recently, with a notable decline of over 4%, marking its largest sell-off of the year. Prices dropped sharply from recent highs, reaching crucial support levels around $2,550. Despite managing to remain above an important yearly opening price at $2,066, the overall market sentiment leans bearish due to profit-taking and a strengthened US dollar. - Key Insights: Traders are advised to exercise caution and wait for potential pullbacks before entering new sell positions. Current market conditions present opportunities for buying gold with confirmation rather than impulsively. The significant shift in institutional activity suggests a growing bearish sentiment towards long positions in gold. - Expert Analysis: Market analysts and traders expect continued selling pressure on gold, particularly if it breaches the $2,550 support level. The upcoming FOMC meeting in December may provide additional direction, but for now, a bearish trend seems likely to carry into next week. The environment of economic uncertainty may still encourage cautious buying. - Price Targets: Based on the wisdom of all professional traders, the following targets and stops have been established: Next week targets: - Target 1: $2,400 - Target 2: $2,600 Stop levels: - Stop 1: $2,300 - Stop 2: $2,200 Longer-term targets suggest a potential bounce back to $2,800 by early next year. - News Impact: The dollar's continued strength and shifts in interest rates are impacting gold prices negatively. Additionally, significant global movements, such as increased buying interest from BRICS nations, reflect changing dynamics in the precious metals market, which are likely to influence gold's trajectory in the weeks ahead. Gold remains under pressure, and its performance next week will hinge on the strength of key support levels and broader market sentiment.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. This selling is bonkers tbh. It’s so unbelievably rare that markets have such a strong rally and do not respect the trend line at all at such important prices like 2700 and 2600. A bounce is overdue but man, being bullish on Gold has not paid for more than 2 weeks. 2570 is a bad spot to trade. We can easily test down to 2500 before we see a bigger bounce. Can’t be anything but neutral. Quote from last week: comment: Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo. comment: Market took 48 days to gain the 10% we now lost in 14. This selling is climactic and thus unsustainable. We will soon see a bigger bounce, if not a complete reversal to 2800 again. On the daily chart it looks nasty but on the weekly chart tis but a scratch. Bears closed all but one open bull gap and technically just retested the breakout price for the previous bull leg. This selling is strong enough to seriously doubt much higher prices than 2800. What I do expect is some bounce and more sideways movement between 2600-2800 before we could test lower prices (2300-2400) next year. For now it’s too early to go long, since market has not found a credible bottom yet but since market has not traded much below the weekly 20ema for a year. Swing longs with stop 2480ish are very reasonable. current market cycle: Bull trend on the brink of being over, either bulls turn hard and go above 2600 or 2400 awaits. It’s possible that we have already transitioned into a trading range and the ath 2801 will be the top of it. key levels: 2500 - 2800 bull case: Right at the weekly 20ema, which has been bought for over a year. Also retested the July high, which was previous resistance for 5 months until the market finally broke strongly above it. And also trading at the lower bull trend line which started in February. Those are more than enough perfect reasons to buy this dip and I do expect bulls to try at least retesting 2620 early next week and likely the current bear trend line around 2650. The 4h 20ema has been resistance since the selling began and once bulls conquer it again, we could see acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears know the selling is climactic and a proper bounce is overdue. Can they get 2500 before we get 2650 is the biggest question imo and as always, I don’t have a crystal ball. I will see if 2560 continues to be support on Monday and if we can break above 2580, which was been big resistance on Friday. Bears want to stay below 2600 and the longer they can, the less aggressive the bulls will be. 4h 20ema was resistance for the whole move down and until claimed, it continues to be. Invalidation is above 2630. outlook last week: short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again. → Last Sunday we traded 2694 and now we are at 2570. Bad outlook. Bears were much stronger than expected. short term: Neutral until bulls claim 2630 again. 2540 just has to hold or if we spike down to 2500 we would have to see huge buying or this will flush down more. Bears are in full control until market trades above the 4h ema again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-17: Tough call for the rest of the year. If I had to guess I’d say that we rally to 2800 again before year end, just so we can sell off beginning of 2024 but it’s pure guesswork as of now. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted possible bear trend lines and deleted closed bull gap.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds