Watchlist for Week Ending 6/21/2024Starting this week i will be positing my watchlist for stocks and futures trades that are on my radar!
SOJ.ROSU2024 trade ideas
VPOC Moved Up and HVN Still Providing SupportTechnical:
Similar to yesterday, I'm bullish on beans. We have support below the current consolidation range and a lot of indications that we could see a strong move up after a bit more choppiness.
Fundamental
A little birdy known as Descartes Labs gave me some insight into the production forecasts for beans yesterday, and signs point to Wasde over-predicting end-of-season yield.
Swing Long: Double Bottom + Higher Low + Up-Trending ChannelTechnical factors:
Double bottom formed with a higher Low on the second retracement, which was also accompanied by volume accumulation.
Long-term upward trend (view weekly chart).
Up-trending channel in the medium-term.
Well-defined risk.
Low-volume node (LVN) that provides for an early/aggressive breakout entry (likely today).
Fundamental Factors:
WASDE yield estimates for beans this season are running high by more than two bushels per acre.
Soybeans Were on a Rollercoaster Ride Last WeekSoybeans
Technicals (July)
July soybean futures had an impressive rally on Thursday, taking prices up to the 50 and 100 day moving averages, which happened to align with the 50% retracement from the April lows to the May highs. The market not only fell flat here but straight up rejected it as prices proceeded to erase the whole rally in Friday's trade. It's tough to draw any conclusion from that price action with a high amount of conviction. With that said, if you tune out the noise and look at the levels, our support and resistance levels remain intact at 1170-1175 and 1199 1/2-1204. A breakout or break down from these levels could lend hand to the next directional move.
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of 45.5k futures and options contracts, 37k of that coming on the short side and about 8.4k of that being long liquidation. That puts the Funds net position at short 59,741 contracts.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1220-1225***, 1232 1/4-1236 3/4***
Pivot: 1199 1/2-1204
Support: 1170-1175***, 1140-1145****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Search For Support. Will the Market Find It?Soybeans
Technicals (July)
Like corn, July soybeans marked their sixth consecutive lower close yesterday, which by just quickly looking at it appears to be the longest losing streak since March of 2023. The fact that the RSI (relative strength index) only got to 38 yesterday is a bit of s shocker. Typically, a reading below 30 is what market technicians refer to as "oversold". The Bulls need to see support continue to be defended, we've outlined that as 1170-1175. A break and close below that pocket and there's about 30 cents of air which would take prices back to the tows from late February through April.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1220-1225***, 1232 1/4-1236 3/4***
Pivot: 1199 1/2-1204
Support: 1170-1175***, 1140-1145****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Buy July beans, 1224 limit, 11.99 stop, tgt TBDLooking for early trend developing to the upside on beans
Buy July beans, 1224 limit, 11.99 stop, tgt TBD
ZSN LONG WITH MAYBE BIG POTENTIALThis ZSN has reversed and has formed a new daily uptrend with big potential, if it goes up to the blue line level, keep adjusting the stop loss on the way up, and expect a few pullbacks on the way up.
Beans on the moveFormed a double bottom against yearly pivot level. Now on the way up again. First target S3
Beans on the reboundBeans made a second bottom at the same yearly fib pivot. See if it can get past the last swing high after a bounce I noted earlier this year on the same level.
Soybeans testing key supportSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke lower but found support at our 4-star support pocket which we've outlined in recent reports as 1128 1/2-1133 1/2. The Bulls need to see this pocket defended, a failure to do so could accelerate the selling pressure. Below this support pocket and prices are back in uncharted territory, the next support level would be the psychologically significant $11.00 level.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175***
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****, 1100**
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down, that
is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Drift LowerSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures attempted to hold ground yesterday, but it lacked conviction. Prices are giving back those gains in today’s trade. 1155-1160 is the first resistance pocket the Bulls need to overcome to help spark a bigger relief rally. A failure to do so keeps the potential for new lows alive and well.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1155-1160, 1170-1175
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Under PressureSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke back below support yesterday which accelerated the selling pressure and keeps the door open for a retest of the February lows in play, that comes in from 1128 1/2-1133 1/2.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175***
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT soybeans sink on technical selling, spillover from lower grChicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures dropped on Tuesday on technical selling and spillover support from lower corn and wheat.
-CBOT May soybeans ended down 11-3/4 cents at $11.74 per bushel after touching the lowest level since March 8.
-Selling accelerated as the benchmark contract broke through technical chart support at its 20- and 50-day moving averages and a recent low posted last Thursday.
-CBOT May soymeal settled $5.10 lower at $328.30 per short ton, and May soyoil gained 0.36 cent to settle at 48.60 cents per pound.
-Stiff competition for U.S. export sales from Brazil and concerns about demand from top-importer China still hang over the market.
CBOT soybeans end weaker on dull demand, lower grainsChicago Board of Trade soybean futures eased on Monday on good supplies, seasonally slowing U.S. export demand and spillover pressure from falling corn and wheat prices.
-CBOT May soybeans settled down 5-3/4 cents at $11.85-3/4 per bushel.
-CBOT May soymeal settled $4.30 lower at $333.40 per short ton, and May soyoil gained 0.29 cent to settle at 48.24 cents per pound.
-Stiff competition for U.S. export sales from Brazil and concerns about demand from top-importer China still hang over the market.
-Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2023/24 cycle had reached 74% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week.
-Traders continued to digest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data released last Thursday that projected U.S. 2024 soy plantings at 86.5 million acres, in line with trade expectations and up 3% from 2023. The acreage total is likely to shift with changing spring planting conditions.
-The USDA on Monday morning said export inspections of U.S. soybeans totaled 414,484 metric tons in the week ended March 28, below trade estimates for at least 500,000 tons.
-The USDA is due to release its monthly soy crush report later on Monday. Analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expect the government to report that processors crushed 196.4 million bushels of soybeans in February, up 0.8% from January and up 11.0% from the same month a year earlier.
Are Soybeans Setup For a Bigger Rally?Thursday marked the last trading day of the month and first quarter, which coincides with one of the more highly anticipated USDA reports of the year; quarterly stocks and prospective plantings.
The USDA estimates that there will be 86.51 million acres of soybeans planted in the U.S. this year, that was a hair below the average analyst estimate of 86.53 million but still nearly 3 million acres more than last year. Quarterly stocks were reported at 1.845 billion bushels, this was slightly above the average estimate of 1.828 billion, and above last years 1.687 billion.
With the headline numbers coming in close to expectations, the market was little changed at the close. From a technical perspective though, the Bulls were happy to see support near $12.00 hold, which is both technically and psychologically significant. As you can see on the chart, $12.00 has acted as somewhat of an inflection point through the first three months of the year. On top of that, you also have two major moving averages (the 20 and 50 day) coming in there. The 20 day appears to be nearing a crossover of the 50-day moving average which is often looked at as a bullish signal by technicians.
The big hurdle for the Bulls to overcome comes in from 1225-1232. If the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket we could see that spur prices higher with the next upside objective being the 100-day moving average. Above that, and there’s the potential to fill the gap from January 2nd, which comes in from 1305 ¼-1311 ¾.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Buy May beans 11.86 limit, stop at: 11.63, tgt 12.42May Soybeans are rallying on short covering. We will try to catch a ride. Buy May beans 11.86 limit, stop at: 11.63, tgt 12.42
SOYBEANS Excellent buy opportunity.Soybeans (ZS1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since early 2023 just last week, it almost hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). So far the price has reacted with a minor rebound, while the 1D RSI has been on a major Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows).
This is the best buy signal since the May 31 2023 bottom where again after an RSI Bullish Divergence, the price rebounded aggressively to the 0.618 Fib on a +12.56% rally. So far within this long-term Channel Down, we have had similar rebounds of +12.56%, +14.26% and +11.86%.
Assuming the minimum of +11.86%, we are setting a Target on Soybeans at 1263'5, which may almost make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the natural technical Resistance since April 24 2023.
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LET'S PLAY A GAME... (FRACTALS)Hi everyone... a quick take on Soybeans Futures
The current composite stock market sentiment is widely accepted to be a repeated cycle from the past. Some markets are leading within the cycle, others are lagging, yet, all are in a continuous band..... And now, SOYBEANS
This is the DJIA structure between November 1903 to February 1915, a 11.3 year cycle.
The bottoming section is the trend between July 1910 and July 1914. The stock market closed in July 1914 into world war 1 and reopened in December 1914. The actual bottom is disputed between the July 1914 closing low and February 1915 low
The current cycle commenced on 13/05/2019, the bottoming section is the trend from 18th July 2022 to the XXX ending date and holds striking similarities.
Current ZS
DJIA Fractal
There are a total of 4 bottoms completing the bottoming cycle
The 4 bottoms are synchronized in Solar harmony (in month)
Here is how the harmony looks on solar time scale
The month of the cycle lows are well aligned within a variation of 2 weeks using the weekly candle, with July being the approximate cycle month.
For the 1903 - 1915 cycle, the entire duration was 589 weeks or 135.5 months. The bottoming cycle took 1673 calendar days. 1673 is one week less the harmonic cycle of 1680 days.
The current fractal has an origin point on 13/05/2019, if we use the February 1915 low as the marker then the duration of the current fractal will be 1750 days or 250 weeks ending on 26/02/2024. The bottoming section will then take 588 days or 84 weeks
Notice that 588 occurs twice in both cycles in weeks for the 11.3 year cycle(589 weeks) and days (588 days) in the current fractal. This also is 84 weeks in current fractal and 135.5 months in the 1903/1915 pattern
(84 * 1.618) = 135.91 units
Now the entire structure of the current cycle is clear, the low at 13/05/2019 was 791.0.
The high within the cycle is 1784.0
Total price advance = (1784 - 791) = 993 units
Entire expected duration = 1750 days
Bottoming cycle duration = 588 days
In a previous post we projected the 1008 points advance and squared out using 1008 trading days. The time of the first high was 1016 days, price at second high is +993 points.
Notice that 993 points is 1008 units less 15 points.
15 units is equivalent to 2 weeks on the weekly chart or two candles
Our next projection then puts the structure as a golden rectangle 1.618 with price and time.
The price at 1170 is the current 0.618 correction/active bottom
Putting it all together, this is the phase to expect after the cycle is complete
We have a timeline for the long bets, we can also make projections into the extent of the next expansion
Check back, stay safe
Good luck
Descending Wedge & Bullish Divergence on March SoybeansFundamental Outlook:
There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamental outlook for soybeans is bearish. Global ending stocks are now at all time highs per the last WASDE report, and export demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed considerably - currently down around 19% year-over-year. As South American harvest progresses, the outlook of the Brazilian soybean crop has also improved.
Talking Technicals:
Despite the bearish fundamental outlook - the descending wedge, bullish divergence on 14-day RSI, and declining volume profile presents a bullish setup. Managed money funds remain aggressively short - holding a net-short position greater than 150,000 contracts across futures and options on soybeans. An upside breakout could result in short-covering, ultimately propelling prices higher in the near-term. Descending wedge patterns typically see sharp, upside breakouts which would be akin to the price action observed in a short-covering rally.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
1st Short Target on Soybeans reached2nd target the 1:1 extension
re-entry on any FVG
1st Short Target on Soybeans reached
sell march beans market on opensell march beans market on open stop 13.08, tgt 12.18
Based on R/S level
