Oil Chart Ready for Price ReboundWith the price being squeezed in this support area, it looks like we are ready for a price rebound in oil. I see price ceilings of $120 and $200 for oil.
WTI2! trade ideas
Long Next Week: Crude Oil Set for Potential Price Recovery
- Key Insights: Crude oil sees potential upward momentum with prices trading
above the 8-day moving average. Market sentiment favors short-term recovery
despite mid-level volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand
dynamics. Analysts emphasize crude oil's undervaluation and opportunities
due to supply constraints and potential oil production peaks by 2025.
- Price Targets: Next week targets aim for a recovery from the current level.
Tight stops and returns provide a trading framework.
- T1: $71
- T2: $72
- S1: $67
- S2: $66
- Recent Performance: WTI crude oil is trading around $68, with predictions
suggesting a pullback to $67 before potentially rising. Trading above its
8-day moving average suggests persisting upward momentum, pending market
movement. Market volatility exists due to fluctuating demand-supply dynamics
and geopolitical factors, with price support at $64.75 and resistance around
$70 to $73.50, indicating critical levels for potential trends.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight the undervaluation in commodities,
including crude oil, suggesting investment opportunities as the energy
sector benefits from supply constraints. Expectations exist for peak oil
production by 2025, which could lead to long-term market shortages and
volatility. Companies like Occidental Petroleum remain sensitive to price
variations, focusing on debt reduction and dividend increases.
- News Impact: Geopolitical tensions related to Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan
oil could pressure supply chains and affect price stability. The move
towards renewable energy continues to reshape long-term demand; however,
robust demand is anticipated until major shifts occur. China's crude oil
strategies will significantly impact global supply and price alignment.
Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding future price
trajectories in the crude oil market.
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 18th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). We are in the 2nd phase, clearly bearish. On March 23 I wrote:
"The current base cycle cannot yet be called bearish as it hasn’t broken the starting point. The next key extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and 31."
👉 Now this base cycle can be considered bearish. Even though the short position from March 27 was stopped out with a planned loss, the extreme forecast of March 31 provided an opportunity to open a new short position. This is a rare case of two closely spaced extreme forecasts triggering back-to-back. These forecasts were issued specifically for crude at the beginning of the year as a window from March 28–31.
⚠️ It looks like my bearish forecast is being confirmed, as outlined in the summer 2024 crude post. The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction is working precisely. All of this resembles the 2010–2014 setup. The previous 4-year crude cycle began in spring 2020 and went sideways from fall 2022. It seems a new 4-year cycle has already started, and its beginning is very weak — much like fall 2012. There’s a high probability this will be a bearish 4-year cycle ending closer to 2028. The next universal extreme forecast is on April 7. The next crude-specific extreme forecast is on May 5.
What next for WTI ?Although we had a strong up move in oil last week we remain well within last years range. we still a need above $76.50 area to pose a threat on higher prices towards $85/90, otherwise we sink back into the range of the last 14 months, similarly a close below $63.75 will see the deeper move lower.
Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00Crude oil market analysis:
Yesterday's crude oil daily line showed continuous tombstones, which was suppressed near 72.00. Today's idea is to continue to look at the rebound in the short term and pay attention to the support near 68.70. This position is a buy rebound. We will wait for opportunities in the Asian session. Crude oil has begun to move on a weekly trend. We need to pay attention to this week's closing to determine whether it will start a weekly trend in the future.
Fundamental analysis:
Trump's midnight tariffs caused the market to tremble again. In addition, ADP rose sharply, with a result of 155,000 people, 80,000 people in advance, and 115,000 people expected. The bulls still pulled up under such a big negative situation.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00
OIL GLUTSTRONG SELL until November 2025
First Target : $52
Second Target : $43
Under the screening of 100 Weeks Bollinger Bands, Oil is in the same situation as in 1986, 1993, 1998, 2014 and 2020
Since there is talk of a glut " Strong production growth expected to increase global oil glut in 2025, 2026" Bloomberg 11/02/2025, the target could be as low as $32 (High 2022 =130 * GannRatio 0.25)
However there will be a heavy test at around $52-55, a support line uniting several key points since 12/2006. Eventually, greater volatility alone would make $43 possible. (130*GannRatio 0.33).
It is noticeable that in all instances exepted 2014, a very sizable rebound was observed from 6 months after the plunge, so that we would be strongly short right now and contemplate to buy from September 2025
We cannot speculate as to whether there will be 2 plunges (2014) or 1 straight plunge (all other instances excepted 1998) or a prolonged plunge (1993). This is why the test in the $50 is crucial. The article suggests for 2025-26, more in line with 1993 and 2014. Therefore we believe that $43 will be reached.
Oil Futures short: Breakdown of descending triangleThis is the breakdown that I had discussed in my earlier idea on the same product. I had used futures this time because this is the product that most professional traders used for trading oil (and really because it's what my friend uses).
The stop is set slightly above the breakdown price.
The take profit is set at 1-1 target from the most recent peak to the breakdown.
Crude Oil at Decision Point — Breakout Coming or Just More Chop?Crude is nearing the apex of a descending triangle, but the conflicting signals across timeframes make this a tough read. The daily is breaking out to the upside, while the 4H is pushing lower — classic mixed market structure. Are we about to fake out in both directions before rolling over to fresh lows, or is this a genuine attempt to break higher? Honestly, both long and short setups feel like low-probability plays right now. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade.
buyers coming into the marketprice hit a higher timeframe resistence area at the end of the week, which we see lots
of selling off & a bearish engulfing candle.
price has now hit an institutional candle & is showing sighns of rejection from that area
buyers have already started to enter the market , as we can see on a lower timeframe.
i will be looking for buys at market open,
WTI Crude Oil Trade Plan: DOE Release NYMEX:CL1!
In this tradingview blog, we go over our technical setup and trade idea for Crude oil.
It is important to note we also have DOE inventory numbers coming at 10:30 ET.
Once the release has settled in, the trade idea can be framed using either of our two scenarios.
Scenario 1: Liquidity Trap
Rejection above March Monthly Open or Yearly Open and prices mean revert towards March mcVAH and CVPOC confluence. The idea considers the trend from last Wednesday. Late breakout buyers get trapped. Higher time frame participants push prices lower.
An example swing trade idea would be taking a long position once the release has settled and waiting for a pull back around 69.50.
• Entry: 69.50
• Stop: 70.30
• Target: 68.15
• Risk: 80 ticks
• Reward: 135 ticks
• Risk/Reward ratio: 1.69
This is an example swing trade idea that may play out by the end of the week.
Scenario 2: Shift back into 70 - 75 range distribution.
Immediate resistance is at March monthly open and yearly open. Above it the path clears towards Q1 mid-range and 2025 mCVPOC.
An example of a trade idea for this scenario is to wait for a breakout and close of candle on the 30 minutes time frame above yearly open. Wait for a pullback towards 70.28
• Entry: 70.35
• Stop: 69.50
• Target 71.45
• Risk: 85 ticks
• Reward: 110 ticks
• Risk/Reward ratio: 1.29
Please note that these are example trade ideas. Trades are advised to do their own preparation. Stops are not guaranteed to trigger, and losses may be greater than predetermined stops.
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely no opinion on this or interest in trading, other than small scalps. Look at the weekly tf and tell me how obvious everything is, be my guest.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 65 - 72
bull case: Bulls produce decent tails below daily bars and keeping the market above the daily 20ema and 69. Right now they have taken somewhat control of the market after many weeks of selling, likely due to bears being exhausted. Only a daily close above 70 would change my assessment though. Sideways is more likely for me and I have no bigger interest in buying at 70 when it could be the high of a potential trading range 65 - 70.
Invalidation is below 65.
bear case: Bears sold the market relentlessly for 2 months straight and do seem exhausted. Right now they want to keep 70 resistance and since this is the first decent bounce the bulls got, the odds of this going much further up are low. It’s still a bear flag on the weekly tf and a retest of 65/66 is possible. Daily close below 68 would make me look for shorts for 100-200 ticks lower but that’s about it.
Invalidation is above 71.
short term: Neutral around 70. Bulls need a daily close above and bears something below 68 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed last bear trend line, market is neutral at 70.
USOIL BUY Trade Review Bias: BULLISH due to price trading inside 1hr +NWOG (new week opening gap)
Entry model: Bull unicorn model created after price tapped into 1hr +NWOG. Confirmed with a +BB (breaker block), stop hunt, displacement thru +BB w/ FVG
Left chart shows entry model targeting equal highs created during London morning session which I use as buy side liquidity which gives price an incentive to trade higher.
CrudeOil Breakout or Reversal?📈 CRUDEOIL – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
CrudeOil is currently testing a key resistance zone near 5995–6000. Price action has respected the rising trendline, and the structure looks poised for a breakout or rejection move.
🔍 Two Possible Scenarios:
🔹 Bullish Breakout Above 5995 If crude sustains above 5995 with volume confirmation, we may see a sharp move toward:
🎯 Target 1: 6030
🎯 Target 2: 6065
🔹 Bearish Rejection Failure to break 5995 may trigger a rejection and lead to a correction toward:
📉 Support 1: 5931 (EMA)
📉 Support 2: 5870 (Trendline base)
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5995 / 6030 / 6065
Support: 5931 / 5870
Volume will be the key factor in validating the breakout. Until then, keep a watchful eye for a trap or fake-out near resistance.
📌 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always manage your risk and trade with proper position sizing. Market sentiment can change quickly.
Crude oil-----buy around 69.00, target 69.90-70.90Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has not been so strong for a long time. The K-line has uploaded the daily moving average, and the bulls have begun to rush up. The current suppression position is 70.00-70.60. Yesterday, the highest peak was 70.22. Today's idea is to follow the short-term buying, buy at a low price to see its moving average rebound, and the daily moving average is also starting to attack. We don’t speculate whether this wave of upward rush will change the trend of the daily line, but we can be sure that the short-term is bullish. Today’s idea is to buy directly around 69.00.
Fundamental analysis:
Although there is no big data this week, the US tariffs still cause huge market fluctuations in terms of fundamentals.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----buy around 69.00, target 69.90-70.90
Crude Oil Market Insights: A Bullish Perspective on Price MovemeThe crude oil market continues to demonstrate resilience, with recent price action revealing intriguing patterns that warrant close attention from investors and traders. At the current juncture, crude oil has successfully found critical support at the $66 level, a development that aligns precisely with earlier market expectations.
Current Market Dynamics
Traders and market analysts are observing an emerging rally targeting long-term resistance levels. Interestingly, the early 2024 market upswing serves as a compelling analog for current price movements, providing a historical context for understanding potential future trajectories.
Market Movement Characteristics
The current market momentum presents a nuanced picture:
Continued upward movement is evident
Trading volume shows interesting characteristics
Price action indicates a slightly less volatile impulse compared to previous trends
What’s particularly noteworthy is how the market is maintaining its upward trajectory. Despite potential concerns about increased supply, the market has demonstrated remarkable stability. The current rally appears to be developing with a different volatility profile compared to previous market phases.
Supply and Demand Considerations
The prevailing market narrative around demand is progressively validating earlier predictions. Traders are speculating about the potential for an even stronger rally in the near term. While significant volatility might not be anticipated at current levels, the market remains dynamic and responsive.
Comparative Market Analysis
When examining the current market phase against historical patterns, several key observations emerge:
Volatility in the current market area differs substantially from previous periods
Price movements are showing measured, calculated progression
Supply increases are being absorbed without significant market disruption
Forward-Looking Perspective
Market participants should prepare for potential continued movement, albeit with a more measured approach. The expectation is not for explosive, high-volatility reactions, but rather a more controlled and strategic market progression.
Conclusion
Crude oil markets continue to provide fascinating insights for investors and traders. The current support level, emerging rally, and measured market dynamics suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Key Takeaways
Crude oil finding strong support at $66
Potential for a measured rally
Reduced volatility compared to previous market phases
Continuing positive momentum in market trends
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
Crude Oil: Volatility and Key Levels in FocusThe Crude Oil (CL1!) chart shows a recent phase of high volatility, with a sharp decline followed by a recovery attempt. After reaching the recent high around 80.77, the price underwent a significant correction, returning to the key support zone between 60.97 and 62.43. This price range represents an important accumulation level, previously tested multiple times in recent months and defended by buyers.
From a technical perspective, the area between 65.27 and 69.00 represents a dynamic resistance zone, whose breakout could pave the way for a recovery towards the critical 73.00 area. However, the recent bearish impulse has pressured lower levels, and a weekly close below 60.97 could indicate a structural trend change, with potential bearish targets around 57.00.
The RSI is currently in an oversold zone, suggesting a potential consolidation phase or a technical rebound attempt. However, selling pressure remains high, and sentiment is negative, partly driven by global economic uncertainties and concerns about oil demand.
From an operational perspective, a move back above 65.27 could indicate a recovery phase, with targets at 69.00 and subsequently 73.00. Conversely, a break below 60.97 would open negative scenarios with a possible extension towards the lower support at 57.00. Investors remain focused on macroeconomic data and OPEC+ decisions, as potential production cuts could trigger a new rally, while an unfavorable macro environment could increase selling pressure.
