2024-10-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Trading range 68 - 70.6 continues. Neutral as it gets in between. Don’t over analyse this range.
comment : Bulls fighting for 70 and there is a chance this today was a lower low major trend reversal and we go up from here. Validation is only a daily close above 71, so don’t be early like me last week. Continuation of the trading range is a bit more likely than a bullish breakout.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 71
bull case: Bulls want to keep 70 support and break above the bear channel now. They still need to break the bear trend line and above the daily 20ema. Given the current chart, you simply can not hold longs above 70 for now.
Invalidation is below 67.7.
bear case: Bears keeping this at the lows is good for them. They could still try to get a third leg down to retest the September low 63.46 but right now that is as unlikely as bulls breaking above 71. I do think one side will give up this week and we see a bigger move. Do not trade on hopes of an event which could sent oil prices higher. That is not a trading strategy, that is gambling.
Invalidation is above 71.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long 68.6 since it was previous support and close enough to the bull trend line to expect it to hold. Was good for 150+ ticks.
