GOLD1! trade ideas
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: 2640 - 2700 is the range. Play it. Bulls bought the trend line on Friday and are free to continue the meltup. Above 2680 I expect another try of 2700 and a possible 3rd leg (W5) up to 2800 or higher. Bears need something below 2640 for maybe retesting 2600 (the bigger bull trend line is around that price) but for now I can’t see this happening. The rally/bubble is in full force and market is finding buyers on any pullback. Weekly chart gives a good picture. Last time market stalled 3 weeks before another strong leg up.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls hit 2700 as expected and we pulled back some. I do expect this pullback to become a great buying opportunity but I don’t know how far down bears can get it. Obvious magnets are the breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620.
comment : My bearish target was 2630 and low of the week was 2646, I do think that is as good of an outlook as it gets. We are still low enough to justify buying 2667 but your stop would have to be 2640. Until the bull trend line and daily 20ema are broken, market is max bullish, so look for longs.
current market cycle: very strong bull trend
key levels: 2640 - 2710 (will probably break above again)
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side and all patterns are as bullish as it gets. Bull trend line held and a buy is a decent trade right now for 2700 or higher. My target for W5 is around 2780. If bulls fail at this smaller bull trend line, the next bigger one would be around 2600 and that is probably the absolute best bears could get over the next days/weeks.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears want to break below the minor bull trend line and the daily ema. We have not touched the daily 20ema for a month so don’t expect the first touch to be a strong break below. Bears do not have good arguments for more weakness and I won’t make some up. Anything below 2640 would surprise me and odds would rise to test down 2600 but right now it’s low probability.
Invalidation is above 2710.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral and I will only look for longs in Gold. If bears show strength, I might try a small short scalp and hope for 2630 or lower and then I wait for bulls to come around again. Making money on the long side here is the way to go.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2668 and now we are at 2667. Outlook. Was. Perfect. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 2640 - 2670 but favoring the bulls to break above 2670 for 2700 and higher. If bears show strength below 2640, it would be a reasonable trade to try a short for 2600.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull gaps to highlight the bullishness..
Gold Nearing Major Support at 2667 - Bullish ReversalGold is approaching a crucial support level at 2667 on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential bullish reversal. This level holds significant importance due to its confluence with technical indicators that suggest a possible upward move. Let’s break down the key elements of the current setup:
2667 is a well-established major support level where buyers have historically stepped in, making it a critical zone to watch.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) has crossed above 50 multiple times, which is a strong signal of increasing bullish momentum. This suggests that, despite recent price consolidation, there is underlying strength in the market. The fact that RSI is sustaining above the midline indicates that the market sentiment is shifting towards bullishness.
On the 4-hour chart, the most recent candle formed a Hammer, a classic bullish reversal pattern. This suggests that the market is rejecting lower prices, with buyers defending the support level.
Gold closed the weekend at 2667.80, sitting right on this major support level, further confirming the importance of this zone.
All these technical indicators point towards a potential bullish setup for Gold, with the RSI's multiple crossings above 50 strengthening the case for upside movement. If the price bounces from this support, we could see a rally in the near term.
However, it's essential to recognize that Gold's price action is also influenced by global events, particularly geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East. These developments could introduce volatility and sudden shifts in sentiment.
Traders should closely monitor price behavior around the 2667 support level and look for further confirmations of a bullish reversal, such as continued RSI strength, bullish candlestick formations, and breaks above resistance levels. If the support holds and these signals align, Gold could be poised for a significant upward move. However, a failure to maintain this level may lead to further downside, so caution is advised.
Stay updated on global events, as they can heavily impact Gold's trajectory in the days ahead.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-4 End Of Week Wrap-upWhat a great week overall! My SPY Cycle patterns worked fairly well to target buy/sell zones 4-7+ days in advance and really provided some much-needed guidance for traders this week.
I've been getting emails and messages from many traders telling me how my research and SPY Cycle Patterns have changed their lives.
It sure makes things easier when you have this level of information about the future of price trends/ranges, right?
As we head into the weekend - let's take some time to help those around us that need our assistance. After the recent Hurricane, I'm sure people within your reach need a little assistance.
Remember, this is when we, as Americans, need to stand up and help fellow Americans.
Be safe, and see you on Monday.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Shakeout - Fed Comments/UD-Dollar - Rally TimeGold saw a huge shakeout this morning, as the Fed commented, and the move in the US dollar put some extreme pressure on metals.
The funny thing is this move ended almost as fast as it started - and now metals are rallying again.
Why?
The Fed is trying to transition into a more global friendly position - allowing foreign nations to become more competitive with the US Dollar. China recently went ALL IN on a resurgence economy - betting the US Fed is going to move towards more Dovish rate cuts. This bet may be the downfall of China if the Fed changes direction near the end of 2025.
The US dollar is still the biggest, badest currency on the planet. As Gold rises while the US Dollar rises - you are seeing global traders attempt to hedge global risk factors in precious metals while the US Dollar/Economy continues to be the 900lb Gorilla of the world's economies.
Things could get very interesting through the US election. Sit tight - buckle up and prepare for some very big moves in the markets over the next 60-90+ days.
Get some.
What is up with gold and silver?Why are the historical gold and silver prices wrong? Are they inflation adjusted, or is this a mistake?
2024-10-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bulls now touched the bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and market is making higher lows and lower highs. Means contraction and we will see a breakout tomorrow. I favor the bulls to retest 2700 or higher. Only bearish below 2645.
comment : Bears tried and failed. Bulls bought the bull trend line and above 2685 I don’t expect 2692 to hold and we go for 2700 or 2708, if not higher, again. There is always the possibility of me being wrong and patterns failing. So below 2660 the bears are favored to test 2646 and below that bulls have to defend the minor bull trend line which is close to the daily 20ema 2630-2640.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2645 - 2700
bull case: Bulls in full control, still. Decent pullback on the daily chart, which was bought and bulls are free to trade higher again for the third leg up. Not more magic to it.
Invalidation is below 2545.
bear case: Bears tried multiple times but bulls bought it all. Next stage is giving up. Most bears have stops 2685 or latest 2695. If they somehow manage to get below 2660, they want a retest of 2646 and I really can’t see them breaking that price without touching 2700 again. If bears were strong, we would have seen it by now. Obviously an event can always happen but you can’t bet on it. Right now it’s technically still a contracting triangle and we could test 2665 again.
Invalidation is above 2685 and above 2695.
short term: Max bullishness if we stay above 2660
medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 2665 after market showed it does not want to go lower at bar 2.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-2 End Of Day Review.For those of you following my research and SPY Cycle Patterns, this video helps to understand where we are within the SPY Cycle Patterns (and also the GOLD Cycle Patterns) while providing context and information related to future trends.
I suspect the price will follow my "Buy Here" and "Sell Here" levels very closely, as this week's price rotation seems very clear.
Most traders should have no problem trying to understand where opportunities exist after the recent Harami and CRUSH patterns collided into one bigger downward sweep of price. Over the last few days, the Israeli/Lebanon conflict became a focal point, and prices reacted to this news.
Now that the issue seems to have passed (a bit), the markets will return to doing what they do.
Watch this video and post any questions you may have.
The rest of this week should be a great opportunity for skilled traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold eyes 2700 with potential bull-flag breakoutGold futures look set to have another crack at 2700 over the near-term, given the strong rebound from the 2650 area on Tuesday and the tight bull-flag pattern developing on the intraday chart. Whether it can simply break to a new high is likely down to whether tensions in the Middle East escalate further.
XAUUSD LONG SETUPThe price has conducted CHOCH and BOS in the lower timeframe, it shows bear trend already ended. Now bull will take over and continue upward moment after the price get enough liquidity.
Dxy gold silver this is October first. this video was difficult for me I thought about deleting it but I think the section on Range boxes can be useful since I showed the difference between a good range box and a bad one from my perspective. and the metals markets were tough because I'm looking for a reversal lower even though those markets are at least temporarily still moving higher... so I would be getting out of a long trade on the gold which is the last part of the video but I would be looking to exit a long trade based on what happens with the next 4 hour bar....And I might even be short on a two-bar reversal because a market that's having trouble making new highs and then shows a reversal pattern to Short it can end up being a very profitable trade and it can go a lot lower since it's been having troubles making new highs.
Gold Builds Base : Look For Support Below $2650 For LongsMy research shows Gold will make another big move upward over the next 10-15+ days - targeting $2740-2750. But first, Gold will attempt to base/bottom near or below $2650 over the next two trading days.
My research suggests Oct 3 and Oct 4 will likely be the start of a rally phase for Gold targeting the $2750 level by Oct 14-15.
I believe traders should attempt to look for long entries below $2645-2655 and view any move below $2640 as a deep low opportunity.
Gold is still hedging the global risk factors at play throughout the world and will attempt to move above $3050 before the end of 2024.
Get ready. This is the start of the big rally phase I've been warning you about for the past 3-4+ years.
Everything I suggested would happen is taking place right now. You just have to be able to take the trades to benefit from these moves.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GC - Taking long positionI am taking out long GC here at 2660, knowing the fact that it may go down to 2651 before going higher... I will be holding this as a swing position..
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: 2700 proved to be a good spot for a pullback, which should go a bit lower than 2668. Breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620 are all valid targets for the bears. We will only know the strength of the pullback once we know where bears sell it again, so we can draw proper support and resistance trend lines. Right now I think bears should not let it get above 2695 or market will go more sideways instead of a deeper pullback. It’s still max bullish until bears print below the daily ema again.
Quote from last week:
comment: I always think about wrong outlooks much more than about right ones. In this case, was the “no interest in buying this high“ the right call here and I would come to a yes in every scenario. Of course it was wrong and market made another 50 points but risk reward was so off, not taking it was the right move for me. Anyhow. Bulls confirmed another bullish structure and we have a bull wedge inside a very bullish channel upwards.
comment: Bulls hit 2700 as expected and we pulled back some. I do expect this pullback to become a great buying opportunity but I don’t know how far down bears can get it. Obvious magnets are the breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2 600 - 2710
bull case: Bulls want the pullback to be very shallow and mostly sideways. Anything above 2640 would be max bullish and an amazing buying opportunity. Not much else to tell you, since bears are having a really hard time making money in Gold. Look for longs.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears need to print some consecutive bear bars to have some arguments on their side again. They have many mentioned targets below but as of now, all of them are far aways for them. Biggest pullback last week was 50ish points and market already pulled back 43. Not sayin we can’t drop further but looking for shorts is currently a painful experience in Gold.
Invalidation is above 2710.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. I won’t be buying 2646. Need a pullback.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2646 and now we are at 2668. Only 24 point difference to last week but wrong outlook anyhow. Bulls are insanely strong.
short term: Neutral and I will only look for longs in Gold. If bears show strength, I might try a small short scalp and hope for 2630 or lower and then I wait for bulls to come around again. Making money on the long side here is the way to go.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
September 27th Gold and Silver Market UpdateQuick Update,
As we finish up the month of September and step into October, the US presidential election is right around the corner for November 1. I believe this will create some market volatility upon election results, and any drama following the event that we are likely to see.
Gold and Silver look like they may be starting to consolidate here. After a rejection this week for gold at the local 2.618 fib, and some negative divergence on the 4hr chart, and a somewhat overextended short term price run, it seems gold may cool off this coming month.
I am targeting $2,550.
For silver, since it tracks with gold (usually in a more aggressive way), there will also likely be some consolidation. I am expecting silver to get back down around $26.50.
So, if things are consolidating prior to the election, it's likely we see a counter move following the results. So there may be some opportunity to play that move.
Specifically for silver, I'm thinking a potential 10-20% pop from wherever it consolidates to this following month. You could trade physical bullion or trade the paper, up to you.
Leave a comment below with your thoughts.
- Micah
GC - time for some longsI am looking to go long at around 2669-70 area. There is also a possible bounce at 2672.
Modern Day Gold RushWe have an extended trend on Gold right now. When will a deep pullback take place?
Let's take a closer look and see...
4 hour trend is extended, and the 1-hour trend has just been recalculated.
We are expecting the 1-hour trend to continue down to a level of demand located near the 100 SMA on the 4 hour chart.
Once we hit demand, then start looking for reversal patterns on the 15 min chart.
We should start seeing TrendCloud signals fire off when all 3 timeframes line up.
For more info on this strategy. Check out the link in my bio.
Don't miss out on the gold rush!
Gold (GC) Falling Wedge 1h- Falling wedge with fib extensions up to price targets of 2697 and 2730
- SL would be breakdown of wedge and failure to reestablish
GOLD --- When Breakout? $2700 Target remains in place. The war against sound money...
keeping a "lid" on the price of the worlds biggest asset
and truly the only real collateral in the world.
Is being slowly lost.
We have a continuation head and shoulders that many people are watching.
But something to note
Is that the previous times #Gold has traded above 2 thousand dollars
The smackdown has been quick and violent.
If you noice in the past few weeks,
the compression of price ,
and the consecutive number of weekly closes above 2k.
Is the most it has ever been.
Are the Bankers ready to let it run...
since they seem to be pumping up all assets prices for the 2024 election.
I think the ramp up to 2.7k could be quite violent... do we get there by summer?
GC - short entryI am looking to take short entry on GC at around 2699-2700 level. Volume has dried up, and I would like to see a nice push up to the level.
GC: Technical Analysis of Gold Futures (Daily)Gold is showing a strong bullish bias, confined within an ascending channel. While the price is nearing the channel's resistance, there is a potential for an upside breakout. A move above this level could propel the price towards the next resistance area, ranging from 2735.4 to 2744.5. However, as with any market, there is inherent uncertainty.
Key levels to watch:
Strong resistance: 2735.4 TO 2744.5
Potential weekly support: 2644
Stay updated: Financial markets are constantly changing, and your analysis should be regularly updated.
Let's discuss it! Please feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments.
Please remember: This is just a sample, and you can just modify it to fit your specific needs.
I hope this analysis is helpful.
Thank you for your attention.
#goldfutures #technicalanalysis #tradingview #supportresistance #gold
Gold FutureWe have a major uptrend, then above the trendline we have a sweep of liquidity, a change of character and engineered liquidity. Hoping for a retracement down to the deep fib levels to take out the internal engineered liquidity. Tight stop, good R:R.
