Cup and Handle breakout, alternate fib levelsSame bullish thesis with different fib levels drawn from different highs and lows, we will see which prove to be more accurate.
1SPOT trade ideas
$SPOT Trend ContinuationI am always hesitant to post on things I am in love with -AMZN MSFT NVDA AMD CRWD OKTA, etc; I have really nothing to offer but bullishness! Only when a setup on these is strong enough do I actually post (AMD for example, didn't post AMZN - seems like everyone on TV was already). Generally I am always in a rush to share something that I don't have a bias on as I will provide a more neutral view; likewise, I love to post short positions on stocks I love as it works as an effective hedge & goes against my bias which I see as healthy (AAPL TSLA posts for example).
$SPOT is one of my rare long-but-I-dont-like-the-company posts. In other words, I don't like SPOT - I don't use it, and previously I HATED their business model. Previously, that is. The music business is not as profitable as they would like it to be, and so they diversify to podcasts. This I like. The difference here is that with podcasts they are licensing the IP with direct deals to podcasters. This is somewhat akin to $SPOT's strategy in music that really didn't work (IMO). Their strategy was to provide a ML music discovery platform so that individual artists can scale up on their platform (rather than the big labels so they can cut the middle man out). This didn't work however - for whatever reason they can't get away from licensing the big artists from the big labels that want big $$ for those rights.
Compare this now to signing Joe Rogan & Michelle Obama to $NFLX style deals; yes, I am saying that $SPOT has changed their business model away from attempting some kind of grassroots move away from music labels to PUMPING capital into podcasts with a $NFLX "license-the-content-to-get-the-users" style. Take out debt for free, spend the cash on acquiring valuable IP, and milk that IP with customer acquisition and ad sales over the life of it. It works.
Ok - so none of this is technical and thus really not actionable for me. Perhaps some fun info for those to disagree with me on - I love a good disagreement! The technicals, however, look fantastic here. You have a rounding bottom pullback, daily squeeze momentum turning up & entering a strong squeeze, and strong channel support. I am looking to go long $SPOT and would love to add more if I can get a dip below $260. I managed to enter this over the week and believe this pattern will complete over the month and bring $SPOT back above $300.
Here's a view of the 30min - lines are clearer:
$SPOT Spotify Possible Weekly Bull Flag$SPOT Spotify Possible Weekly Bull Flag
Long-legged doji reversal candle last week. This week currently green.
Will be monitoring for a weekly close above ~$262 area for confirmation of bull flag breakout.
Medium term target: $340-$360 range possible by late Oct
Note: Not investment advice.
Spotify Holding the 50-day SMASpotify has come into its own as a new-media disruptor in recent months. It broke out to new highs in May after signing Joe Rogan. Other luminaries like Kim Kardashian and Michelle Obama have followed.
SPOT muscled up to $299.67 on July 22 but then pulled back. Its last earnings report wasn’t terrific, but the real story on this name is its widening program list and long-term position as a unique growth stock.
The current price range could be a place to look for an entry. It barely touched below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Monday and has held there since. The recent low of $241.27 is also near support from the July 14 low of $243.11. (False breakdowns below old lows can be bullish.)
If SPOT holds this zone, momentum traders may watch for a continuation from the 50-day SMA.
SPOT August Weakness & Interest at 200
Theres a lot to like about this stock with their push towards podcast aqusitions... But not at these prices.
Looks like some distribution up here. Cant hold above Monthly VWAP and breaking below pivot range for August with poor price structure on volume profile into 200.
I'm interested in getting some stock and selling some premium if we can get the gap fill at 200.
$SPOT - Run into E/RWeek of 7/27 is full of E/R that will surely swing the market. Even though we had some bearish macro indicators emerge during the week of 7/20, I'm expecting speculators to continue to bet on tech this week. Being said, I have prepared a rough draft of my trade plan for $SPOT this week. Would love some feedback in agreement or disagreement.
