1UAL trade ideas
$UAL Bearish Swing Trade PlanGreen Line - Entry Target
Red Line - Exit Target
Pink Line - Stop-Loss
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Aerolineas ***** Posible 10%******Las Aerolineas han estado reaccionando a las noticias de la vacuna, si se aprueva; las aerolineas daran un gran salto, por lo visto algunas vacunas ya estan en produccion solo se esta esperando la aprovacion final. Seguire vigilando UAL ya que es la que reacciona mas drastico y puede dar mayores ganancias.
Iron TariHi guys,
according to my strategy we have 4weeks 20% strikes, 99% probability of success, this means that we never had a lost in the past.
For this Iron condor with 5$ spread for each side there is a max profit of 90$ and a max loss 410$: if you are new in Iron condor you should find this R/R ratio very poor compared with forex, but we have very high odds at our side! 99% to get the maxim profit, plus 5$ extra on both sides (the long legs) before to get tha max loss. If the weekly candle closes over the short strike we close the trade, for a loss lower than max loss of 461$.
If you are more experienced you'd love to jump in this trade as I do, Strangle, no long legs, for a max credit of 130$, IV is 75%
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
Covid Cure Runners - Where the Smart Money is moving.Well, Pfizers news yesterday of a Corona vaccine with 90% efficiency was received well by the market sending the Dow through the roof and heavily punishing the stay-at-home / work-from-home stocks that have been keeping us all entertained for the last 6-8 months. As per the video, it all feels a bit too soon, but there does seem to have been a big sell off of the tech stocks, and you can see the smart (and retail) money moving into the heavily beaten up areas like airlines, cruises, casinos, and complimentary businesses like hotels and resorts where a lot more value and potential upside remains.
I thought I'd cover examples of some of the stocks in each of these areas and suggest possible ways outside of the TradingView Screener for you to find additional stocks in these spaces that might also be running, as well as how to look at what an ETF is made up of. You could choose to trade the ETF which is a container of like-themed stocks, or pick the best individual stocks and seek to outperform the ETF.
The video includes examples of some US as well as Australian stocks, but the idea will work for any markets. As always do your own research. None of these should be considered any kind of recommendation, they were just names I pulled out of my memory without having done any research. The whole market could turn upside down and inside out again tomorrow on different news :)
What do you think. Was the timing of the news just lucky coincidence or delayed conspiracy ;)
Hope it's useful. Enjoy.
Collecting Premium on UALPre-market the UAL 20NOV20 $40 call shows an Open interest of 2608. The Probability of the option being in the money is only 27.5% and there is also a 72.25% implied volatility included in the price. With a 72.5% chance that this option will expire worthless we can create a simple spread to be able to collect the premium of the option that is around 30 days to expiration.
THE WEEK AHEAD: UAL, DAL, SLB, WBA EARNINGS; XOP, SLV, QQQEARNINGS:
There are four options highly liquid underlyings that pop up on my screener for next week with 30-day implied of >50%: UAL (23/88/22.6%)* (on Wednesday after market close); DAL (13/74/19.1%) (Tuesday before market open); SLV (18/59/16.4%) (Friday, before market open), and WBA (43/54/12.2%) (Thursday, before market open).
Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/50 short strangle in the November monthly with the options camped out at the 16 delta, yielding a 2 x expected move break even on the put side and > 2 x expected move on the call. Delta/theta -.41/6.00; paying 1.87 at the mid price as of Friday close (.94 at 50% max).
The DAL November 20th, 16 delta 27/42 short strangle was paying 1.83 at the mid price as of Friday close; delta/theta 1.48/4.39.
SLB is small enough to short straddle, but would go "skinny," as the November only has 2.5 wides to play with. The November 20th 15/17.5 was paying 1.48 as of Friday close, but treating it as a short straddle and taking profit at 25% max (.37) isn't particularly compelling, so would probably pass on the play and deploy buying power elsewhere.
WBA suffers from a similar affliction (2.5 wides out in November), but the 32.5/40 is paying 1.54 there, albeit with break evens greater than the expected move, but not quite 2 x.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%:
XOP (15/56/14.5%)
SLV (45/51/13.1%)
GDXJ (15/49/12.9%)
EWA (15/42/11.6%)
XLE (27/43/11.2%)
GDX (15/40/10.7%)
XBI (29/43/10.3%)
USO (4/43/10.1%)
BROAD MARKET RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING:
QQQ (28/33/8.2%)
IWM (25/32/7.6%)
SPY (19/25/5.9%)
EFA (13/20/4.8%)
DIVIDEND PAYERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%:
KRE (25/44/11.7%)
EWZ (15/42/11.6%)
XLE (27/43/11.2%)
GENERAL MUSINGS:
I already have a UAL covered call on, so am unlikely to partake in that underlying further here. Moreover, in the IRA/retirement account, I'm already deployed in everything at the top of the heap from an implied volatility standpoint, although I may carry on with my standard weekly 16-delta short put in the broad market instrument with the highest implied volatility, which would be QQQ. Alternatively, I'll do a QQQ 10-percenter (See Post Below) instead, as NDX isn't fantastically liquid, and a November 27th (currently, 48 days until expiry) will be available. To emulate a 50-wide, however, in NDX, I'll have to go 10-wide with 5 contracts or 5 wide with 10, etc. For example, the November 27th 240/245 is paying .50, and I'd have to sell 10 of those to emulate the NDX November 27th 9925/9975, paying 5.04. I would naturally prefer just selling one NDX spread, since it means fewer fees, but if the bid/ask is grotesque, I'll just have to go with QQQ or a RUT 50 wide. (The RUT November 27th 1385/1435 was paying 5.04 at the mid as of Friday close).
* -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank (where implied volatility is currently relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a percentage of stock price.
ABC BullishAre airlines going away?
I sure hope not
I hope the president lives through the flu. He is strong and I think he will be okay. There is a possibility it will drive non-work at home/seclusion/the you can NOT HAVE FUN type stocks back down temporarily because he has the flu. Craziness. But be cautious
And I hope we do not shut down the country and put businesses in bankruptcy or totally run them out of businness when Influenza season hits like it does every year. I hope we do not lock old people up in nursing homes and in their own homes.
Politics have hurt a lot of people this year and I hope it was worth it for whoever orchestrated all of this.
The travel industry has probably been hurt more than any sector
If you are a Covidee (one who is truly scared to death by the fear instilled by our media), put your mask on (or not) and live life again..TRAVEL! Life is too short
Not a recommendation
