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GLH2025 trade ideas

China Halt Buying Gold - Time to sell? But when to buy again?Is there still demand for gold by central banks around the world, and is gold heading for a correction? We will look into some data on the central banks' interest in this precious metal and discuss how to trade gold during this period. Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Short
by konhow
4
Triangle sideways pattern in the fourth waveGreetings, Dear friends, I hope you are well and have had a week filled with successful and profitable transactions. My analysis of the Gold market: It is very clear that we are in the third wave, and with a little precision, I mean the first wave and the third wave, and with the extension of the Fibonacci expansion. The fourth wave is only due to the movement of the wave to the side, from my point of view, the running triangle pattern can be very likely until this analysis is invalidated, and after its completion, the price action will be witnessed with strength and an extension of the impulse pattern. Note: I am a new analyst in the world of wave principles with three years of experience, and I am developing an analytical idea. There is no 100% certainty in financial markets due to the complexity of various patterns that can change. However, I do my best to back up any analysis I share with you guys with everything I've learned so far. A brief explanation of the three fundamental laws of the wave principle: 1. The second wave should never go beyond the beginning of the first wave. 2. The third wave should never be the shortest wave between waves 1, 3, and 5. 3. The fourth wave must never enter the territory of the first wave. Ralph Nelson Elliott was the founder of this theory, and when asked about his view of the market, he always referred to five waves in the direction of a larger trend and three waves against the direction it was taking. After completing an eight-wave cycle, a larger cycle is formed in the future. It's as simple as that. May his memory be cherished, and may his soul rest in the shelter of God Almighty and the eternal world. I am attaching the analysis of this market that I shared with you earlier to this current analysis. The last word of my analysis text is repetitive, except for the explanation of the current analysis, because I also trade in the financial markets and am active in my social networks, working hard to improve my skills in analysis and trading to reach my goal. I apologize for repeating the text. I welcome suggestions and criticisms, and I will certainly respond, but a logical reason is important to me. Thank you for taking the time to review my analysis, and thank you all. To all my dear friends and colleagues, first of all, I wish you health and success in your goals. Mehdi Abbasi with the nickname (Mr. Nobody)
COMEX:GC1!Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
2
Options Blueprint Series: Swap Strategies for High VolatilityIntroduction CME Group Gold Futures have always been a cornerstone in the commodities market, offering investors and traders a way to hedge against economic uncertainties and inflation. With the current market environment exhibiting heightened volatility, traders are looking for strategies to capitalize on these fluctuations. One such strategy is the Straddle Swap, which is particularly effective in high volatility scenarios. By utilizing the Straddle Swap strategy on Gold Futures, traders can potentially benefit from price swings driven by news events, economic data releases, and other market-moving occurrences. Strategy Explanation The Straddle Swap strategy is designed to capitalize on high volatility by leveraging options with different expirations. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how this strategy works: Components of the Straddle Swap: 1. Buy one call option (longer expiration) This long call option benefits from upward price movements in Gold Futures. 2. Sell one call option (shorter expiration) This short call option generates premium income, which offsets the cost of the long call option. As it has a shorter expiration, it benefits from faster time decay. 3. Buy one put option (longer expiration) This long put option benefits from downward price movements in Gold Futures. 4. Sell one put option (shorter expiration) This short put option generates premium income, which offsets the cost of the long put option. It also benefits from faster time decay due to its shorter expiration. Rationale for Different Expirations: Longer Expirations: The options with more days to expiration provide a longer timeframe to capture significant price movements, whether upward or downward. Shorter Expirations: The options with less days to expiration decay more quickly, providing premium income that reduces the overall cost of the strategy. This helps mitigate the effects of time decay on the longer-dated options. Market Analysis Using TradingView Charts: To effectively implement the Straddle Swap strategy, it’s crucial to analyze the current market conditions of Gold Futures using TradingView charts. This analysis will help identify optimal entry and exit points based on volatility and price trends. The current price action of Gold Futures along with key volatility indicators. Recent data shows that the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month Historical Volatilities have all been on the rise, confirming a high volatility scenario. Application to Gold Futures Let’s apply the Straddle Swap strategy to Gold Futures given the current market conditions. Identifying Optimal Entry Points: Call Options: Buy one call option with a 100-day expiration (Sep-25 2024) at a strike price of 2370 @ 64.5. Sell one call option with a 71-day expiration (Aug-27 2024) at the same strike price of 2370 @ 53.4. Put Options: Buy one put option with a 100-day expiration (Sep-25 2024) at a strike price of 2350 @ 63.4. Sell one put option with a 71-day expiration (Aug-27 2024) at the same strike price of $2350 @ 52.5. Target Prices: Based on the relevant UFO support and resistance levels, set target prices for potential profit scenarios: Upper side, target price: 2455. For put options, target price: 2260. Potential Profit and Loss Scenarios: Scenario 1: Significant Upward Movement If Gold Futures rise sharply above 2370 within 100 days, the long call option will generate a potentially substantial profit. The short call option will expire in 71 days, limiting potential losses. Scenario 2: Significant Downward Movement If Gold Futures fall sharply below 2350 within 100 days, the long put option will generate a potentially substantial profit. The short put option will expire in 71 days, limiting potential losses. Scenario 3: Minimal Movement If Gold Futures remain relatively stable, the premiums collected from the short options (71-day expiration) will offset some of the cost of the long options (100-day expiration), minimizing overall losses. Further options could be sold against the long 2350 call and long 2350 put once the shorter expiration options have expired. Specific Action Plan: 1. Initiate the Straddle Swap Strategy: Enter the positions as outlined above following your trading plan, ensuring to buy and sell the options at the desired strike prices and expirations. 2. Monitor Market Conditions: Continuously monitor Gold Futures prices and volatility indicators. Adjust or close the strategy if necessary based on significant market changes. 3. Manage Positions: Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. If the market moves favorably, consider exiting the positions at the target prices to lock in profits. 4. Reevaluate Periodically: Periodically reevaluate the positions as the options approach their expiration dates. Make any necessary adjustments to the strategy based on updated market conditions and volatility. By following this type of trade plan, traders can effectively implement the Straddle Swap strategy, taking advantage of high volatility in Gold Futures while managing risk through careful monitoring and the use of stop-loss orders. Risk Management Effective risk management is crucial for success in options trading, particularly when employing strategies like the Straddle Swap. Here, we will discuss the importance of risk management, key techniques, and best practices to ensure that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital. Importance of Risk Management: Minimizing Losses: Trading inherently involves risk. Effective risk management helps minimize potential losses, ensuring that a single adverse move does not significantly impact the trader’s overall portfolio. Preserving Capital: By managing risk, traders can preserve their capital, allowing them to stay in the market longer and capitalize on future opportunities. Enhancing Profitability: Proper risk management allows traders to optimize their strategies, potentially increasing profitability by avoiding unnecessary losses. Key Risk Management Techniques: 1. Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders helps limit potential losses by automatically closing a position if the market moves against it. For the Straddle Swap strategy, set stop-loss orders for the long call and put options to exit positions if prices reach predetermined levels where losses would exceed the desired trade risk set by the trader. 2. Hedging: Use hedging techniques to protect positions from adverse market movements. This can involve purchasing protective options or futures contracts. Hedging provides an additional layer of security, ensuring that losses in one position are offset by gains in another. 3. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: Ensure that all positions have defined risk parameters. Avoid strategies that can result in unlimited losses. The Straddle Swap strategy inherently has limited risk due to the offsetting nature of the long and short options. 4. Precision in Entries and Exits: Timing is crucial in options trading. Ensure precise entry and exit points to maximize potential gains and minimize losses. Use technical analysis key price levels such as UFO support and resistance prices, and volatility indicators to identify optimal entry and exit points. 5. Regular Monitoring and Adjustment: Continuously monitor market conditions and the performance of open positions. Be prepared to adjust the strategy based on changing market dynamics, such as shifts in volatility or unexpected news events. Additional Risk Management Practices: Diversification: Spread risk across multiple positions and asset classes to reduce the impact of any single trade. Other liquid options markets could be WTI Crude Oil Futures; Agricultural products such as Wheat Futures, Corn Futures, or Soybean Futures; Index Futures such as the E-mini S&P 500 Futures; and even Bond and Treasury Futures such as the 10-Year Note or the 30-Year Bond Futures. Position Sizing: Carefully determine the size of each position based on the trader’s overall portfolio and risk tolerance. Education and Research: Stay informed about market conditions, economic indicators, and trading strategies to make well-informed decisions. By incorporating these risk management techniques, traders can effectively navigate the complexities of options trading and protect their investments. Ensuring more precision with entries and exits, using stop-loss orders, and implementing hedging strategies are essential practices that contribute to long-term trading success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GCV2024Education
by traddictiv
10
Gold Building A Top? Potential Downside Price ObjectivesConclusion: In early 2024 gold reached the price objective derived from the breakout of the large triangle that had evolved beginning in early 2022. Upon reaching the area of the objective, a classic buying climax halted the trend. The subsequent trading range has been characterized by distribution. In the event of a breakout lower, the amount of distribution (cause) derived from the point and figure count suggests that a downside objective of 10-12% lower is reasonable. In this piece we make a technical assessment of the daily and weekly charts, provide evidence suggesting that the range is likely distribution (Wyckoff) In November 2023 gold broke above lateral resistance that had developed along the 2079-2085 area. • The lateral resistance and the rising support generated by the trendline (A) defined a large triangle. Importantly the original breakout from the 2079- 2085 triangle generated a price objective of 2540. • That objective is derived: 2079 (initial point of the triangle ) - 1618 (bottom of the pattern) = 461 points. • 461 points added to the triangle top (2079 + 461) = 2540 objective. In my view, triangle price objectives are AREAS to monitor for resistance rather than discrete points. In March the market rallied to 2454. • The combination of overbought in the channels, and the 1.382% Fibonacci objective (a bit short of the 1.618% objective), and the area of the triangle objective, clearly defined an area of the chart where supply was likely to develop. Despite the backdrop of very bullish news and strongly bullish sentiment, a classic buying climax developed (BC). Over the next three weeks the market pulled back to 2285, then rallied in a secondary test (ST). Gold Daily: Without going into a detailed Wyckoff price/volume analysis I will make the case that it is likely that the range is one of distribution. Note the appearance of supply (inside the oval) just prior to the buying climax at 2449, the lower volume and angle of attack on the rally to 2454 (secondary test), and the expansion of volume and close near the low of the price spread (last arrow). Rallies inside the range are being aggressively sold as strong hands distribute to weak hands. Additionally, much of the price action has developed below the midpoint of the range. Trading ranges represent areas of the chart where large numbers of shares change hands, often moving from strong hands to weak hands. This is why there is a consistent relationship between the length of a trading range and the size of the subsequent move. This is particularly true in very liquid, heavily traded markets. Assuming the current range DOES NOT EXTEND and I am correct in my assessment of distribution, the point and figure count projects enough cause to suggest downside of 2010 - 2030. If the range extends, the count will lengthen and the price objective grows greater. With this view, I Should be able to fashion a trade well in excess of 3-1 (minimum) risk reward. I suspect that when a trade does set up, that risk reward will be in excess of 10-1 as a stop versus my entry is likely to be less than 1%. Generally speaking, there are only two outcomes to the range, either the buying climax is short term and the market will, after a period of re-accumulation, move higher or the buying climax will offer a significant top leading to a significant markdown once supply is completely distributed to weak hands. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
COMEX:GC1!
by CMT_Association
4
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG above 4Hr Swing EQ Level...?COMEX:GC1! "I hated every minute of Training, But I said, 'DONT QUIT'! Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a CHAMPION." -Muhammad ALI This is a simple TXT-Book break N re-test PLAY LONG above 4Hr Swing EQ and targeting the next Minor S&R Level ($2376.0).... I want to see price break the 1Hr Supply Zone and above the 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($2355.0). I want to see 30m Candle closures above EQ/1Hr Supply & above the Liquidity Trendline, to clarify strong conviction from buyers to go LONG!!! Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
COMEX:GC1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
REFINED ANALYSIS ON XAUUSD (GOLD)In response to the unemployment claims, a significant market movement ensued, Will be causing a deep sweep through the $2300 level, reaching into the lower 50s(2350). This pronounced shift reflects the market's reaction to the economic data, with considerable activity observed as prices adjusted sharply in the wake of the news. As the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is projected to inclines, the market anticipates a corresponding shift in currency valuations and economic outlooks globally. This projected incline suggests potential adjustments in trading strategies and market behaviors in response to the anticipated depreciation. follow for nore insights
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Ak_capitalist
Gold trading - short or none trade. Sallers dominance Futures contracts for gold are under selling pressure. Analyzing the cumulative volume with Wyckoff Wave, it is evident that the selling pressure is strong enough for gold to reach the last support level. In my opinion, it's either a Short position or no trades at all. ChatGPT Wyckoff Wave Volume (Cumulative Volume): Cumulative volume analysis is a market analysis method proposed by Richard D. Wyckoff. It involves tracking the total trading volume over a specific time period and interpreting whether the volume is increasing (indicating strength of trend) or decreasing (indicating weakening of trend). Selling Pressure on the Gold Market: You argue that the Wyckoff Wave cumulative volume indicates strong selling pressure in the gold market. This suggests a high volume of selling transactions, which may imply a downward trend in gold prices. Support Level: You suggest that volume analysis indicates gold could fall to the last support level. Support levels are historically price points that attract buying interest and can halt price declines, unless breached. Your Market Approach: Your conclusion is that due to strong selling pressure, one should consider a short position on gold or refrain from trading altogether to avoid risk. For more details visit volumedaytrader.com
COMEX:GC1!
by VolumeDayTrader
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG above 4Hr Swing EQ Level...?COMEX:GC1! "I hated every minute of Training, But I said, 'DONT QUIT'! Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a CHAMPION." -Muhammad ALI This is a simple TXT-Book break N re-test PLAY LONG above 4Hr Swing EQ and targeting the next Minor S&R Level ($2376.0).... I want to see price break the 1Hr Supply Zone and above the 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($2355.0). I want to see 30m Candle closures above EQ/1Hr Supply & above the Liquidity Trendline, to clarify strong conviction from buyers to go LONG!!! Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
COMEX:GC1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
The 3 Reasons Why Gold Is A Good Buy🔒Gold is at a all-time low right now, and this is a good time to buy it while its still cheap...if you look at silver as well you will find that silver is outperforming Gold and is very fast at moving up in the reverse direction compared to gold.💰📈 -- #1-You can trade Gold without using margin #2-Gold stores your purchasing power #3-Gold stores your wealth long term -- Another alternative to buying Gold is this crypto --> GATEIO:XAUTUSDT very stable and you don't need to worry about market volatility if you buy it at the right price. Rocket boost this content to learn more .. Disclaimer:trading is risky you will lose money wether you like it or not please learn risk management
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 14th June 2024if Sustain above 2325 then 2340.5 to 2347.5 or 2352 to 2354.4 above this bullish then 2358.7 to 2361.4 then 2365.7 to 2368.2 or 2372.6 to 2376.9 above this more bullish then 2379.7 to 2383.9 then 2390.8 to 2397.9 if Sustain Below 2318 then 2311 then 2307 to 2304.1 below this bearish then 2290.7 to 2288.6 then 2281.6 then 2276.3 to 2274.6 or 2270.3 to 2267.7 below this more bearish then 2263.4 to 2260.1 then 2256.4 to 2252.1 then 2249.5 to 2245.2 Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
GC/Gold 1H Buy Idea 6/15/24Price has broken the trendline and has now retested on the other side with a hammer forming as the market closed. Looking for price to continue bullish into next week. Keep in mind that price could very well break below the trendline again to form a M with the double top that is possibly forming as well. BUT I'm leaning more towards the buy because of price currently coming to the 1/4H Highs from 6/12/24 **This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
COMEX:GC1!Long
by cecedidit