FCPO Long position 4950 Goal price new high 5050FCPO Long position
1.TF1 price test ema50 4840
2. Long position 4950
3.Goal price new high 5050
FPKO1! trade ideas
FCPO TRADING : 304) RM5k here we come! this is haidojo and the number is 304 ...
Today is 13th Oct 2021 and fcpo-dec21 is going to expire in 2 days or less. October has been blessed with the continuation of aggressive bull which resumes the rally frm last month. Still, the momentum of the long-run bull persists and there is no sign of slowing down. If you are trading some kinda trend-following/continuation trades, this could be your month.
As for today, the fcpo-dec has broken abv and closed abv RM5k. A historical benchmark and also an important milestone in the history of the fcpo price. So how far it could go? that is a million dollar question. U can projectile it using whatever indicator/method you like, but my conclusion is simple. I shall continue trading "long" as long as it is an uptrend. IF it reverses, THEN stick to the downtrend. Follow the trend. As simple as that. IF it consolidates, THEN it is not gud for me. haha. I dun have strategy for sideway yet. There is idea, but not yet tested.
One more precaution we might want to take heed is the tide might change after the exchange date of 16th Oct 21- which will fall upon us in no less than 3 days. SO, till then...stick to "long on retracement", with effective stop-loss. THEN wait for the new trend OR continuation of uptrend on 28th Oct 21 with new active third month, fcpo-Jan 22.
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
resistance : 5040-???
support : 4930-4980
critical support : 4753-4820 (bull is valid till here)
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING . It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… trade at your own risk!
FCPO 13 Oct 2021 : Re-entry Sell EMA14Yesterday closing market setup.
Trading Plan :
1. Setup : EMA14<EMA50 = Sell trend
2. Signal: 15min Price retest EMA14
3. Confirmation: 5min Bearish Engulfing
4. Entry: at least 50% bearish engulfing body CS
5. SL: 10tick above retest CS
6. TP: 15min support area / if there any rejection
If today price open above EMA14 consider the market sideway with this possibilities :
1) Test EMA50
2) Test Resistance (R1):4900 and Support (S1):4849
Notice price is closer to the major uptrend line. Price may break the trendline or reject the trendline to continue bullish momentum.
Trade.At.Your.Own.Risk (TAYOR)
FCPO TRADING : 302)into the abyss....no man landthis is haidojo and the number is 302 ...
Today is 1st Oct 2021 and fcpo-dec21 is the active month. After a long awaiting of consolidation since July this year, fcpo price finally made a move which breaks into a new structure high yesterday, 4598 high and closed at this all-time high. Yes, that is correct. You are witnessing a history being made right now. This price and level has never been reached before, therefore I named it as the "no man land".
As the excitement grows, so does the danger which lurks behind the high price, as I am watching it right now, it opens at slightly lower level, 4550++...but still very close to the highs. The closest support I am observing is 4525, the previous highest close ever in mid-aug this year. As long as the price doesn't break lower than the support of 4320-4374, then it is still considered as uptrend...
Another move we need to take note is, as yesterday, the last day in Sept, fcpo-dec21 opened with a gap-up of nearly 90pts++(closed on 29th Sept at 4451 and opened at 4544). A gap could mean a continuous of the trend and also could mean an exhaustion gap, depending on what will happen next. Watch out for Double-Top formation or any kind of gap-down-go-down scenario in this week. That could becomes some kinda "head" formation and indicates a possible reversal...IF none of these happen, uptrend prevails...bull still has strong grip.
IF you are frm Malaysia, stay safe. juz go to work, buy groceries and go home. Get vaccinated.
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
resistance : 4600 -???
immediate support : 4525-4560
critical support : 4320-4374 (bull is valid till here)
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD… any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… trade at your own risk!
Crude Palm Oil (FCPO)-Simple Wave CountToday is 11 October 2021. It's not even half of the month yet but price of FCPO has reached Monthly R2 (Traditional Pivot). That indicates the price is already overstretched. I believed the price should retrace. Furthermore, The bearish divergence does support the wave count that price already topped for wave 3 base on Elliott Wave count. Further confirmation is needed i.e. must break down the trendline and successfully retest it and continue the short-term downtrend.
FCPO is in a very bullish mode so I don't expect the price to retrace way below the Monthly R1 at 4785. Moreover, there is Weekly Pivot at 4811 to act as the first strong support that might be the catalyst for buyers to jump in the rally again.
The target for wave v is base on 1:1 ratio with wave i. It could go higher or lower than that.
FCPO 12 Oct 2021 : Breakout EMA501. Yesterday 15min CS have a reversal pattern with bearish engulfing @ 5min TF.
2. Today's price has a valid breakout of EMA50. there are 2 possibilities when price breakout EMA50 :
i) Bigger sideway range
ii) Continue downtrend
3. Signal: 1st pullback after a breakout
4. Entry: After bearish engulfing @5min + 15min Bearish engulfing
5. SL: 10tick above highest pullback CS.
6. TP: target support area / until 15min have reversal CS.
TAYOR
Live FCPO Trade : 12 Oct'21 (PM, Long)1. Entered a trade based on Discretionary on Green Pentagon.
2. Exit partial as the price progresses.
3. Flatten the trade when price comes back to the Entry Price for the 2nd time.
Total contracts trade:
Entry : 5 contracts.
Exit partial 1 : 2 contracts @ 5pts.
Exit partial 2 : 3 contracts @ 1pts.
Live FCPO Trade : 12 Oct'21 (AM, Long)- Did a Long trade as price was at the bottom and created a nice base.
- Entry on 2nd Green Pentagon Guider with a SL of 10 pts.
- TP at 20pts but monitor as chart unfolds; exit when Red Pentagon appears.
Total contracts Entered: 6
Exit partial 1 : 2 contracts @ 5pts profit.
Exit partial 2 : 4 contracts @ 5pts profit.
FCPO 11 Oct 2021 : Re entry EMA14Today BMD increased the min margin to RM7000 due to the high volatility of the market.
Trading plan today :
1. Setup: EMA14>EMA50 @15min TF
2. Signal: Price retest EMA14 @15min TF
3. Confirmation : Bullish Engulfing @ 5min TF
4. Entry: Since bullish engulfing body CS below 10tick, enter by market order.
5. Exit SL : 10tick below retest CS
6. TP: nearest resistance/ when bear CS @15min appear..
TAYOR
Trading FEPO vs FCPOKey to take away for Future East Palm Oil (FEPO)
1. Port of delivery location :
i)Lahad Datu
ii)Sandakan
iii)Bintulu
Port Location advantage?
i) Closer to China which is the largest export for CPO. Less shipping cost for oil collection.
ii) Closer to Japan/Korea/Philipines/Vietnam
2. Trading hour : 9.00am~12.30pm and 2.30pm~6.00pm.
Why start 9am? To cover the client from Dalian Commodity Exchange (China)
3. Export Palm related products from 2013-2020 surpassed Peninsular Malaysia.
4. Monthly CPO spread price on average for East Malaysia is at discount to Peninsular price by RM46.40/MT. Buyers will be always looking at a lower price.
5. Ongoing Trans-Borneo highway help to sustain CPO growth.
6. Expansion of Palm Oil (PO) area. Convert from logged-over forest and cocoa plantations.
7. High productivity due to mainly Sabah mineral soils and adequeate & even rainfall distribution.
Key challenges facing CPO producers at East Malaysia
1. Declining CPO yields.
i) Sabah: labor shortage, old trees, diseases, and weather issues.
ii) Sarawak: labor shortage, land dispute, land suitability, old trees, and weather issues.
Any effect to FCPO?
1. FEPO Position limit still lower than FCPO.. might reduce FCPO volume, but still sustainable.
2. FEPO volume mainly will coming from Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Can i trade FEPO?
1. Yes. but since the volume still low, technical analysis will be difficult.
Market sentiment will mainly depend on the fundamental analysis to understand supply and demand.
2. Use Gann technical analysis is possible
FCPO 6 Oct 2021 : Retracement or Continuation?1. FCPO ATH might be due to multiple factors such as manpower shortage and rainy season. Supply is not enough, demand still consistent and drives the price to go higher and higher.
2. Price almost reaches 161.8% fibo extensions.
3. PnF target is around 5113 still further ahead.
4. Price reject Gann level 4831 multiple times
Condition :
1. If price close below EMA50@5min / EMA14@ 15min possible retracement.
2. If the price closes above Gann level 4866, possible price go higher.
FCPO : How to maximize profit during trending market?How do normal intraday traders determine Target profit?
1. Using Win/Loss ratio?
2. Fix Certain points per day only.
Using this method usually limits our profit during a strong market trend.
Another way to maximize profit during market trending by rank is :
1. Wait until 15min have reversal CS.
2. Understand FCPO daily price range (Normal Trending: 120~140point; Sideway: 60~80points)
3. Fibo extension.
4. Gann level.
