ETSY trade ideas
ETSY - LongEtsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies. These items fall under a wide range of categories, including jewelry, bags, clothing, home décor and furniture, toys, art, as well as craft supplies and tools. Items described as vintage must be at least 20 years old.
Illustrated is support-resistance technical analysis. Comment your thoughts below.
$ETSY Bearish close but good entry for swing or strangle @116.5Bearish daily close and sell RSI signal suggested further down move , however its good area for bounce targeting 120-136 . the idea is strangle here between 110-120 or 105-125 shall be profitable as expecting big move. logical scenario is going down up to earning then jump if results will be nice surprise otherwise the down trend will continue for further lower low.
Etsy rounding topTechnically we have a rounding top resting on 126 support. ER is coming up next week so we have two options here. Either we break support now and keep falling with ER or we have a nice relief bounce coming into earnings . Now, estimates show 620ish million in revenue for ETSY . No way. Their rev has been dropping ever since Q4 2020, with analysts estimating lower every quarter. I bet they post 500ish million in revenue and gap down. Again, this is all just guessing, I am using past trends to determine future value. I have no way to know if this is at all correct.
Ichimoku Cloud (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo)The Ichimoku Cloud is a chart used to display support and resistance, momentum, and trend in one view. The cloud is shifted forward 26 days, so in theory, the cloud gives you a glimpse of the past, the present and a projected view of the future.
The Tenken and the Kijun are also known as the Conversion line and the Baseline. The Conversion Line (blue) is the fastest and most sensitive line. The Base Line (red) trails the faster Conversion Line (blue). The relationship between the Conversion Line and Base Line is similar to the relationship between a 9-day moving average and 26-day moving average.
The actual cloud is consists of Leading Span A and Leading Span B. Span A, green, should be above Span B, red, and a bullish cloud is green. The trend is up when prices are above the cloud, down when prices are below the cloud and flat when prices are in the cloud. The top and bottom lines of the cloud act as support when price is above them and resistance when price is below them as does the whole cloud in general. The uptrend is strengthened when the Leading Span A (green cloud line) is rising and above the Leading Span B (red cloud line). This situation produces a green cloud. Conversely, a downtrend is reinforced when the Leading Span A (green cloud line) is falling and below the Leading Span B (red cloud line). This situation produces a red cloud.
The Chikou span, yellow, is also known as the Lagging Span. A trend is deemed to be upward, or stronger when the Chikou span appears above the price, and downward, or weakened when the indicator appears below the price. Some watch the Chikou in relation to price and trade crossovers. It is also a momentum indicator.
Heiken- Ashi candles are also good indicators of the trend and can filter out market noise. Heikin-Ashi candles provide a simple method to incorporate averaging into price action analysis by making candlesticks themselves averaged. This causes candles to have a smoothened and continuous look making them them better to visualize trends. The main difference between them is that Heikin-Ashi candles are an averaged version of traditional candlesticks that uses also the data of the previous bar to produce the current candle's open price.
Just like with regular Japanese candlesticks, a Heikin Ashi candlestick, the smaller (or shorter) the shadow (or wick), the stronger the trend.
Green candles with no lower shadow signal a strong UPTREND.
Red candles with no upper shadow signal a strong DOWNTREND.
I have found it best to look at these candles in at least 2 timeframes, and even 3 different timeframes, to see the best view of the overall trend.
The cloud coupled with Heiken-Ashi candles, can give a quick glimpse of the trend, momentum and the strength of the trend as well as support and resistance levels.
It is apparent that this chart is bearish right now by taking a quick look and without being a "cloud expert"
ETSY: upside potential?A change in trend direction to bullish makes the stock attractive as a speculative trading opportunity.
A price action above 90.65 supports a bullish trend direction.
Upside price momentum supports the bullish trend.
Trend strength indicates a strong trend gaining strength.
RSI leaves enough room for further upside price potential.
Looking to buy at $80-100I've been following the retracement on a multi-year level for some time, but unfortunately it looks like we won't be able to look at 2016-2019 as our guide for what is happening:
The trend from 2016-2019 was useful guidance but will not occur in the same way as prior:
- 3 year bull market (2016-2018), 1 year bear (2019-2020 to COIVD low in March 2020)
- Bounce off 0.618 retracement
Now we are seeing:
- 2 year bull market (2020-2021), and I expect ~1 year bear market (November 2021 - October 2022)
- We broke through the 0.618 retracement already
So what can we look at for guidance?
- On a long scale, we have a steady support line from the all-time-low level. We touched it in 2016, 2017 (x2) and in 2020
- The trendline support is ~25% down from where we are today (we would likely hit between $80-100/share), significantly off of the ATH of ~$300/share
The question is, do we scale in at this $80-100 level, or do we think this downtrend may continue, wherein we would break this support line, retrace it, and look short for the foreseeable future. I'm leaning towards the bullish case for the Long-term after a 25% correction from current levels.
$ETSY Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets $ETSY Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets
Logarithmic View with a few buy targets… I’ll go in heavy if it gets near between 67-74... my alerts are set...
—-
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
Etsy to Break Lower? Etsy
Short Term - We look to Sell at 112.96 (stop at 122.95)
Posted a Bearish Outside candle on the Daily chart. We look for losses to be extended today. Our short term bias remains negative. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 89.40. Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
Our profit targets will be 89.34 and 71.20
Resistance: 150.00 / 200.00 / 300.00
Support: 110.00 / 88.00 / 70.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
ETSY - STRONG DIAMOND REVERSAL PATTERN FORMING!! UP OR DOWN?Hey, Hi, Ho, whats up,
Seems to me like we have a pretty decent diamon pattern playing out here after a more than massive drop to the stock. I have found, and its also pretty well recognized that although rare, diamond patterns are extremely profitable if played correctly.
Not only can you flip short exp calls and puts as the up and down waves are pretty predictable - a long call strategy can give you a really great opportunity to accumulate contracts as the price action goes side to side as you wait for the conclusive breakout.
According to the chart the breakout projection is approx $200 which as I have charted it is a key level of resistance/support so that makes sense. Basically its a gap fill of sorts because the price fell HARD from 200 on.
On the flip side if the pattern fails and its just a continuation of the current down trend the price target is $80-$90 area - here's hoping it doenst go this way.
An importnat note for anyone playing options like myself, there is a significant lopsided amount of PUTS being held in open interest from now until Jan 2024 - obviously this can change however I think its pertinent to notate where it stands now.
Price action looks to be topping at this part of the diamond and should roll over down to about $125 by the end of March. IMHO either June 17 or 1/20/23 exp calls are going to be the most valuable
As of today I like:
6/17/22 ($175's and $240's)
1/20/23 ($230 CALLS)
However time will tell and I will revisit near the end of March or when my bottom alert gets triggered, which ever comes first.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Dont want to be, but have to be...I closed out a long term ETSY short today... when it bounced off 122 which I thought it would and came up to 125 I figured lets jump in for a short term trade to the upside... IF Etsy were to get a little crazy next week and start hitting in the 140s, I would instantly close it out and go short......... I am short term long, long term short biased. I do not think for one second ETSY bottomed. So be careful.. use your stops.
Diamond bottom. All eyes on.Etsy has been a phenomenal stock and its been on a very nice downtrend since its top in November. LTF chart printing a lovely diamond bottom. Wait for breakout upwards or buy on next sign of weakness.
RSI coming into bullish territory.
AO showing low volatility so a big move is on the way.
Resistance @ .382 (162.65)
2YR/10YR spread close to inverting, keep your stops close.
