$NFLX TIME TO STOP HEREI believe this was enough of a rally for Netflix and we should start seeing more selling pressure.
62% Fib along with a resistance zone makes me feel Netflix will be back at 400 soon.
NFLX trade ideas
Earnings Glory and Quiet Storms: Netflix's Path ForwardNetflix has experienced a remarkable surge in subscriber growth attributed to its proactive measures to curtail password sharing and the introduction of a new ad-supported subscription tier. In the third quarter, the global streaming juggernaut welcomed an impressive 8.76 million new subscribers, significantly outpacing Wall Street's conservative estimate of 5.49 million. This milestone represents the most substantial quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2020, a period marked by a surge in subscriptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In terms of financial performance, the results for this quarter are as follows:
1- Earnings: Netflix achieved earnings of $3.73 per share, surpassing the projected figure of $3.49 per share (as per LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv).
2- Revenue: The company generated revenue of $8.54 billion, aligning precisely with the expected figure of $8.54 billion (according to LSEG).
3- Total memberships: Netflix reported a total of 247.15 million memberships, exceeding the anticipated 243.88 million (according to Street Account).
Nonetheless, it is important to consider that there are underlying aspects that may not be immediately apparent to investors, but could impact the company's stock price in the future.
Firstly, Netflix's trailing twelve-month Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio currently stands at 38.19, which exceeds the historical average of approximately 15. This valuation places Netflix in the category of overvalued stocks, as investors are paying a premium compared to its earnings. Netflix's trailing twelve-month earnings per share (EPS) of 9.39 may not fully justify its current market valuation. It is important to note that trailing P/E ratios may not account for a company's projected growth rate, which can lead to elevated P/E ratios driven by expectations of substantial future growth, even if current earnings appear low.
Further, Netflix boasts a 12-month forward Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.36. This suggests that the market is currently valuing Netflix above its expected growth potential, given that a PEG ratio above the fair market value of 1 indicates overvaluation. The PEG ratio of 9.39 is calculated by dividing its forward price to earnings ratio by its growth rate. PEG ratios are a widely used valuation metric, as they consider various fundamental metrics and prioritize the firm's future rather than its past performance. The combination of these valuation metrics paints a somewhat unfavorable picture for Netflix at its current market price, due to an overvalued PEG ratio despite robust growth.
Furthermore, Netflix recently implemented price hikes for its services, with the basic subscription rate in the UK rising by £1 to £7.99 and the premium option increasing by £2 to £17.99. Similarly, premium plans in the US and France experienced price increases of $3 and €2, respectively. While these adjustments are indicative of the company's growing confidence, they come at a time when Netflix is confronting concerns about its ability to continually attract new members amidst mounting competition, escalating prices, and disruptions caused by a Hollywood strike.
It is worth noting that in a landscape of intensifying competition and Netflix's imposition of increased constraints on its subscribers, such as price hikes and sharing limitations, there is the potential for adverse implications on future subscriber growth.
From a technical standpoint, Netflix's price chart illustrates the completion of five upward waves within an ascending channel, with a subsequent breakage and retesting of the channel. This retest has generated a considerable price gap that suggests a likelihood of retracement to fill the gap. Should this scenario unfold as anticipated, there is a possibility that prices may revert to prior lows, particularly around the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at approximately $286.00. A breach of this level could precipitate a further decline, potentially revisiting the initial channel starting point at $170.00.
I encourage you to delve into my other analyses, as they provide valuable insights into the broader economic landscape. By combining these analyses, you'll gain a clearer understanding of what's on the horizon.
Your commitment to assessing multiple viewpoints is a commendable approach to informed decision-making in the complex world of financial markets.
Goodluck!
Positive Earnings Gaps Seldom Fill: NFLXTo follow up on my analysis of NFLX from Wednesday ...
Despite the market moodiness and selling, NASDAQ:NFLX reported well above estimates.
HFTs triggered a huge gap up on heavy pre-open order flow yesterday. Volume was also huge, so smaller funds' VWAPs triggered and retail traders chased the stock while Pro Traders and HFTs made some big profits.
Gaps up on positive earnings seldom fill completely. There is a strong support level at $350 which the gap up now confirms.
ANOTHER SCENARIOThere are 2 patterns I see, the bat and a head and shoulders. I hate to contradict myself but I see it )o; This could have been a Head and
Shoulders pattern that did not make a 100% fall which is not unusual. This pattern can fall more or less than 100 percent.
The 2 spinning tops are sitting on the prior neckline so I turned this level blue versus green as it has been recently broken.
The prior fall from the possible neckline hit between the .618 and the .786 before reversing up. This would mean it hit T2 and almost hit T3 (.786) on the last descent.
H&S is bearish versus a Bullish Bat pattern.
Time will tell and one or the other pattern will play out. it is possible the H&S fall is complete. The H&S can break back above the neckline as no pattern lasts forever and patterns continually morph.
Nothing in the market is written in stone and anything can happen.
Change is the only thing that never changes )o:
No recommendation
BATBullish Bat as most M patterns are bullish meaning they reverse on the 4th leg which is down.
The first leg is Up. Peak 2 s lower than peak 1.
This did not quite hit the .886 but still very close. News popped this early and there was also a very small gap that acted as support.
Price is at a horizontal resistance level and 2 spinning tops are struggling at this level. Spinning top candles represent indecsion. Price must surpass this level to hit above targets.
No recommendaton
NFLX To Reverse Its Course Soon After forming a 1-2-3-4-5 Motive Wave, NFLX is forming an A-B-C Corrective Wave. Currently, NFLX is in C wave of this Corrective Wave.
C wave retraces 100 percent of A wave of A-B-C Corrective Wave. In this C wave, waves 1 and 2 have formed and wave 3 is under formation.
The spike after recent earnings is a short pull back in wave 3.
NFLX, BUY, 16.91% PROFITBought NASDAQ:NFLX on 10/18/2023 at market close and closed position on 10/19/2023 at market open. Net 16.91% profit.
Bulls losing control on NFLX 🥵🐻NFLX breaking bullish trend support zone today, very bad news for longs short term!
I can see a quick dip to 371 before any upside, but if that pivot level at 370 can't hold then we can possibly see a dip to 311 before any big move back to upside targets.
boost and follow for more.. thanks 💛
NETFLIX Up +18% today, sending a message to the market.Netflix made a huge price jump today, opening on the MA50 (1d) for the first time in more than 1 month.
It remains under the Falling Resistance, but held the Rising Support trend lines of the Bullish Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses over the Falling Resistance or if it hits the MA200 (1d) again.
Targets:
1. 508.45 (January 20th 2020 gap).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) made a huge oversold jump. Similar jumps can be seen on March 9th 2023 and May 9th 2022, both market bottoms.
Please like, follow and comment!!
NetflixPrice is falling for many days with less pullbacks. On the lower time frame price has formed a falling wedge, which is a bullish pattern.
On higher time frame, that is weekly chart, price has broken the trend line which confirms the bearish trend. As per the weekly chart, support is at 310 - 315 level.
Resistance zone is 358 - 362.
Buy above 353 with the stop loss of 350 for the targets 356, 360 and 366.
Sell below 344 with the stop loss of 348 for the targets 340, 336 and 330.
Do your own analysis, before taking trades.
Netflix Jumps 14% After Surge In 3rd Quarter SubscribersNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares jumped more than 13.5% in pre-market Thursday trading after it handily beat profit expectations as subscriber numbers rose.
The streaming giant reported earnings per share of $3.73 on revenue of $8.54 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $3.49 and revenue of $8.54 billion. The third quarter results beat Netflix’s previous guidance.
The company said paid subscribers rose 8.76 million in the third quarter, well above expectations for just over 6 million.
“The last six months have been challenging for our industry given the combined writers and actors strikes in the US,” Netflix said in a shareholder letter, noting that while the writers’ strike has ended, it continues to talk to the actors’ unions. “We’re committed to resolving the remaining issues as quickly as possible so everyone can return to work making movies and TV shows that audiences will love.”
For the fourth quarter, Netflix sees earnings per share of $2.15 and revenue of about $8.69 billion. The revenue growth is expected to be around 10.7%, after growing 7.8% in the third quarter.
The company said operating margin in the third quarter was 22.4%, slightly above its guidance, and it sees 2023 operating margin near the top of its range at 20%.
KeyBanc analysts upgraded shares to Overweight with a $510 per share price target.
"In my my own view, Netflix is entering 2024 a cleaner story as: 1) paid sharing appears to have changed Netflix's ability to reach the next ~250M subs; 2) operating profit and FCF are steadily ramping; and 3) buybacks should support a 25%+ EPS growth profile," they said in an upgrade note.
JPMorgan analysts hiked the price target to $480 per share on the Overweight-rated stock.
"We’re encouraged that NFLX is executing on Paid Sharing by converting borrower households, contributing to revenue acceleration to +12% FXN in 4Q, & we believe the forecast for similar net adds to 3Q +/- a few million should skew to the upside given more favorable seasonality in 4Q & a strong content slate," the analysts wrote.
NFLX Price Soars 12% after Strong ReportYesterday's closing price was 345.83, but this morning, NFLX's price rose above USD 390 per share in premarket trading. The reason is a strong report:
→ earnings per share = USD 3.73, expected = USD 3.49;
→ revenue = USD 8.54 billion, a year ago = USD 7.9 billion.
→ the main surprise is that the number of subscribers grew by an impressive 8.76 million in the third quarter (about 6 million were expected). The number of subscribers worldwide is approaching 250 million.
Given the increase in demand for its service, Netflix has decided to raise the price of its basic plan in the US to USD 11.99 per month from USD 9.99, and raise the price of its premium subscription to USD 22.99 per month from USD 19.99. This could attract more earnings per share in the future, which is what has helped NFLX's price soar.
From the technical analysis point of view:
→ NFLX price returns to the ascending channel that was in effect in 2023 and seems to be becoming relevant again. The false breakout pattern could become a support zone in the future.
→ NFLX price exceeded USD 370 per share.
Since early September, NFLX has been a laggard in the NASDAQ index, but after the report it may become one of the leaders. "While we have much work to do to build out this business, we're making good progress and laying the foundation for what we believe should be a multibillion-dollar revenue stream over time," Netflix executives wrote in a letter to shareholders.
Resistance to a powerful bullish impulse may come from:
→ psychological level of USD 400;
→ level at USD 412 – during the summer, the level provided support. But it was broken on September 13-14, and with a bearish gap, which could slow down the rally if the price of NFLX reaches this level. Also note that here is the Fibo resistance level of 50% of the decline A→B.
According to TipRanks, analysts have a target price of USD 454 for NFLX, but given its recent performance, the forecast could be raised.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Netflix to 175?Netflix (NFLX)
1. Price Formation: The price has broken out from a Rising channel (Flag) price formation on a daily chart.
2. Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is below the 21-day MA, which is a sign indicating short-term bearish momentum.
3. 200-day Moving Average is above the Price.
4. Thus, Mas 7<21 and 21=200
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is <than 50, indicating bullish momentum and potential further upward movement.
6. Price Target: to the bottom of the channel at 175
NFLXNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares surged over 10% in after-hours trading after surpassing profit expectations and seeing a rise in subscribers. In Q3, they reported an EPS of $3.73 and revenue of $8.54 billion, exceeding analyst predictions. Paid subscribers grew by 8.76 million, well above expectations. While industry challenges persisted due to strikes, Netflix is committed to resolving issues and anticipates a Q4 EPS of $2.15 and revenue of about $8.69 billion, with a 2023 operating margin near the top of its range at 20%.
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NFLX Falling into a Dark Pool Buy Zone?While we all wait on the highly anticipated NASDAQ:NFLX earnings report at the close today, let's study the weekly chart to study the downside potential since the stock gapped down today on expectations of a weak report.
Netflix’s percentage of shares held by institutions has recovered to a respectable 79%, which is more consistent with a company that is in favor with the Buy Side Institutions. There has been accumulation going on since the lows of 2022.
Selling Short is problematic due to the support levels not far down from the current price and the risk of a hidden Dark Pool Buy Zone starting at the highs of the U-shaped bottom formation.
The current run down is at a technical support level, which is where pro traders often nudge the price to trigger HFTs. Beware of the risk of an extreme reaction at the open tomorrow. During earnings season with a report at the close, pro traders often take profits either in the final minutes of the day to avoid the risk of a surprise, or shortly after the open to capitalize on the reaction to the report.
NETFLIXNETFLIX falsely broke the growing channel it had been building since the bounce.
Subsequently, it lured many impatient bears into short positions, and the subsequent strong rally from $300 is thus parasitizing to liquidate their short positions.
I expect a real rejection from the $500 area.
Invalidation is on a strong break above $500 and testing as support.
Netflix it's ShowTimE !!Hi mates, sharing Daily chart of Netflix for a possible detailed analyis according to my observations, So as we can see on weekly chart that after making a all a time high of 700 levels in the November 2021 it made a low of 163 levels the May 2022 it was a cut of 76% from all time high levels at that time and after price created a base near to 170-190 levels and started it's journey in uptrend again.
So according to data above shared it halted it's reversal journey near to 372 levels where price took a strong resistance (marked on chart) and came down a bit near to 290 levels, And after when it broken that that 372 levels it gives a parabolic move in ascending channel marked on chart too and that breakout took price to 485 levels in the July 2023. And after break of that ascending channel support line price tried to go again in that channel but failed and in this process it made a double top on provided chart and after the break of neckline mentioned on chart it reached to near that 372 levels again now.
So my point is this that price currently it is trading near to 372 levels which can act as a support now prior it was resistance as mentioned in description above. If break and close below can check lower support target below, and if bounce we can see it can test mentioned neckline area again or above after the break of neckline which surely will act as resisatnce for now.
Will try to give proper updates if i will go for any executions in it.
Price can take 200 Ema support also
This is not and trade or investment advice. This idea is meant for learning only.
Best Regards happy trading- Amit
$NFLX: Further down into earnings?Comms, as previously stated in past posts, are of concern and unless the unemployment report tomorrow sends market's skyrocketing. I think we will struggle a little bit more, at least as we head into the earnings report along with broader financial names already covered here.
Nflx puts for earnings today. Strangle. Will be buying a few otm puts and one very far otm call strangling Netflix. Earnings likely to see a big down move.
Netflix user growth to prove recent correction is a spikeNetflix's third-quarter 2023 results will be announced on Wednesday after the stock market closes
The company has implemented a policy prohibiting the sharing of accounts outside the household
Will that reflect in the earnings, making the stock correction a buying opportunity?
The global entertainment landscape has undergone a transformative shift with the rise of streaming platforms, effectively eclipsing traditional media such as television.
Leading this digital revolution is Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), providing audiences access to an extensive library of movies and series for a modest subscription fee.
As we approach Wednesday, expectations are running high for the release of Netflix's third-quarter results, a key event in light of the platform's recent policy shift regarding password sharing.
Introduced in May of this year, this change aimed to curb the unauthorized sharing of accounts and appears to be having the desired effect, as user numbers continue to grow – a change that is poised to manifest itself in the forthcoming third-quarter figures.
Yet, intriguingly, despite Netflix's robust user growth, its stock has been navigating a broad correction phase, prompting speculation that the conclusion of this adjustment may yield results exceeding current forecasts.
In the lead-up to the results, all eyes are on Netflix's projected earnings per share, which currently stand at an estimated $3.48, alongside revenues totaling $8.53 billion.
Notably, the forecast has experienced a remarkable 24 upward revisions, with only 3 instances of downward revision, indicating a high level of market anticipation.
