Head and ShouldersA lot of good news baked into the current stock price, looking for a modest cash out of holders to send the stock downwards as technical momentum starts to sours.
SMCI trade ideas
$SMCI going to plunge further to 417! WHY?Based on the STRAT methodology, it is called MGP or Machine Gun Pivot where Short Sellers will hunt for the many stop loss on each of the day candles on the left! We are talking about another 42% mark my words! LOL! Kaching coming if you are shorting that is. PLEASE this is for educational purpose only. NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE TO ANYONE! DYDD. LOL.
$SMCI - What a breakdown!NASDAQ:SMCI What a breakdown! This is another stock showing a head and shoulder breakdown.
A full measured move to the downside is $500, which is a 78.6% retracement and near the 200-day moving average.
$650 is the next support level, and if it fails, the volume gap can cause the stock to drop quickly to the $500 area..
I remember analysts were caught up in AI euphoria on the way up and came out with ridiculous price targets. Just recently Loop capital upgraded their target to $1500. 🤦♂️
I Wonder if We've Just Seen AI's "New Paradigm Moment". Like NVDA we can fit the various swings of the SMCI rally into Elliot wave and this would imply we're either already at the end of or close to the end of wave 5.
Might this have been the "New Paradigm" moment in AI? Could these final spikes be setting up the end of the rallies for the foreseeable future and the start of much larger corrections?
The case for it is good. Extreme over performance of late in these and with the recent legs up being very similar to those of final EW wave 5 spikes.
I think the most reasonable way to think of AI stocks now is like Nasdaq of the 1990s.
The question would be which year are we in? That makes a big difference.
If we were in 1996, we'd still be extremely early in the rally. Following breakouts would lead to even more exceptional upside.
If we're in 1999 - it's all about to come crashing down.
Given the confluence of sell signals the sensible thing to do is thing of the risk of the rug pull setups now.
Easy enough to rejoin the uptrend on a retest if it breaks out.
The potential upside moves and later massive mean reversion if AI stocks break out would be a really great opportunity.
However, as we stand right now I think it's best to be aware of the potential for a rug pull.
So many different things warn us of a potential rug pull.
Super Micro Tanks 19% After Failing to Provide Financial ResultsSuper Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) experienced a significant drop in its stock price after failing to provide any preliminary financial results. The data center computer specialist announced the date for its next quarterly earnings report, which is scheduled for release after the market close on April 30. However, unlike in recent quarters, SMCI did not offer an early look at its results. As a result, SMCI stock plunged below a key support level, flashing a huge sell signal.
NASDAQ:SMCI is based in San Jose, California, and is better known as Supermicro. The company has been the beneficiary of hyperscale cloud service providers investing in servers for artificial intelligence applications. SMCI stock was added to the S&P 500 last month.
In recent years, Super Micro has released preliminary results with the announcement of its quarterly earnings date, including the last two fiscal third quarters. However, this time, the company did not offer any early look at its results.
In morning trades on the stock market, SMCI stock's value dived 18% to 757.51. With this move, it gapped below its 50-day moving average line, a key support level, in above-average trading volume. SMCI stock had been holding to that level during the recent market turmoil. Super Micro stock is 19% below its 10-week moving average, which is a sell signal for a longtime winner even if it's just 2% below the 10-week line.
On Jan. 19, Super Micro shares skyrocketed 35.9% to close at 423.36 after the company disclosed preliminary results with its fiscal-Q2 earnings report date. That sparked a run that finally peaked at 1,229 on March 8.
Analysts are predicting Super Micro earnings of $5.84 a share on sales of $4.01 billion for the fiscal third quarter ended March 31. If this is accurate, it would translate to year-over-year growth of 258% in earnings and 212% in sales.
SMCI back to the 1.618 Fib?As we can see we had a bearish break below the wedge/flag. This is indeed a reversal indicator. We can see this pulling back to either the 1.272 or the 1.618 fibs.
Great DCA levels.
SMCI LONGBullish Context: Monthly uptrend, weekly uptrend
Price Position: Near last month low
Pattern: price has shaped daily uptrend (higher low and higher high); weekly higher low is set
This is an opportunity for LONG play with profit target near previous month high. In order for this setup to work price must first break through synthetic diagonal resistance; in case of pullback bulls must protect last daily low (881)
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Potential bullflag breakout?Potential bullflag breakout on the daily as well as confluence with an MACD bullish crossover on the daily chart.
I'd buy some options here.
SMCI Trendline TestSurprising strength on NASDAQ:SMCI today.
Coming back to that trendline for its 5th test.
SMCI Strong over short run to $1000 psych but beware!SMCI Strong over short run to $1000 psych but beware! We may make it to $1,100 or about 1,096 where the .618 fib level is from teh recent short term fall, but zooming in the .382 rise to $1000 has a confluence of one of the trend line resistance areas! CandlestickNinjaTV on YT
$SMCI setting up with a breakout again after a pullback restNASDAQ:SMCI looks like ready for the next leg up. Decent Call flows. Since the market is very volatile I will be keeping my losses small and quick to exit if I'm wrong.
NASDAQ:SMCI
SMCI, Correction Notice, Price to follow the Money Flow IndexI have always said that Price will follow the Money Flow Index especially when you have Neutral Price Action or a price trending opposite to the MFI; when there is a Strong Divergence contrary to that Price Action I've found that 96% of the time the Price will correct to follow the MFI either up or down. In this SMCI 4 Hr chart you can clearly see one set up from 2 weeks back with a Bullish Divergence on the MFI as the Price was trending relatively Neutral and then all of a sudden the price jumped over the span of 2 days. Now it has gone in the opposite direction with an even stronger Bearish Divergence on the MFI as the price has continued to move higher. Whenever you see these setups it's a critical time to assess your trading strategy and positions and determine how you may wish to adjust your plan. Keep in mind that the longer the divergence the stronger or more likely the correction is to happen.
SMCI CALLExpecting the price to break out from the triangle and retest the ATH of $1200 if $1065 supply area is successfully broken
$SMCI Head and Shoulders NASDAQ:SMCI spotted Head and Shoulders pattern. Price is holding at support level. Until it bounce or break, will determine its next direction.
SMCI March 29, 2024: A Head & Shoulder FormingNASDAQ:SMCI is a clear leader during this bull market. However, after a 260% run-up from a previous buy point as shown on the chart, the stock is struggling to move up further.
Now it might slowly form a Head & Shoulders Pattern, and a breakdown through the neckline would signal a sell.
Interestingly, the neckline is right near the 50-day moving average (blue line), therefore a breakdown there will be an even stronger sell signal.
SMCI Shows WeaknessSMCI made money for many. I think fair to say people are cashing out. We have a broken trend line and a right shoulder rejecting perfectly at a fib level. I don’t know if we break the neckline with buyers below. However, I do believe we small sell off as people look to cash in on their gains. Followed by a nice bounce with people who are dying to get in. I’m targeting the 900 level.
SMCI Critical level IncomingSMCI saw a nasty down move today with the market.
Semiconductors led the downside move today.
It seems massive amount of capital rotated out of the market today.
This low float volume stock can unwind in a sharp way if this support is breached.
Remember dip buyers will likely start to accumulate as semis are coming from All time high bull market.
Everyone is watching the potential head & shoulder pattern that could trigger with more weakness.
SMCI IS it overextended or hunting for thin air LONGSMCI is intimate with NVDA and the couple are doing quite well. I got some more at $750 and
2 days ago. Predictive Modeling is suggesting a $1000 price by Tuesday afternoon. That would
be a 33% return in less than a week. The chart shows the bull flag after the reversal out of
the down trend where I bought upon the mass index signaling. The AI indicator suggests
a slowly rising parallel channel with the upper boundary in the $1000 range. It suggests
an interval nano-dip in the premarket on Monday for a buy at the opening bell. I am good with
that. I have high confidence here due to the overall trend strength of AI. Software also
NOW, DDOG,CRM SNOW .......
SMCI - consolidated - ? Continuation or ? Reversal SMCI has been on an impressive trend up since the first day of the trading year. On the 15
minute chart It had a healthy 12% pull back about February 22-29 but then rallied again on
a reversal upside to nearly the ATH of $ 1075 set on Friday 2/16. I note that traders like
to trade SMCI on Fridays and likely are chasing same day expiration call options. I know this
because I have been one of them. SMCI is now in a high tight bull flag pattern. Typically
this is bullish for another leg up of equal magnitude after consolidation. I will suppose
the probability of a breakout higher is 75% and breakdown 25%. I may play this with
a set of stop orders. A buy stop at $ 1030 and a sell stop at $ 1005 with a share proportion
set equally. When SMCA breaks from the consolidation one of the two orders will trigger
while the other will be in play until cancelled or triggered. My bullish bias is that the buy stop
will trigger and I will miss only a small piece of the price action in the initial continuation.
I will assess for a call option trade upon continuation. The volatility indicator helps me pick
entries with an alert set for volatility beyond the running mean either bullish or bearish.
SMCIMy personal view on SMCI, I’m expecting price to continue the bullish momentum after a breakout of the falling wedge pattern.
What do you Think about this chart?Investor Psychology and the Recipe for Bubbles: How Emotions Fuel Unsustainable Growth
The allure of quick gains and the fear of missing out can create a powerful cocktail that fuels stock market bubbles. These periods of rapid price inflation, often disconnected from a company's fundamentals, are fueled by specific investor behaviors that can be both fascinating and destructive. Let's delve into the psychological factors that contribute to bubble formation:
1. Herd Mentality: Humans are social creatures, and this extends to the investment world. When we see others making money on a particular stock, a natural tendency emerges - to follow suit. This "herd mentality" amplifies gains and losses, as investors rush to buy (or sell) based on what others are doing rather than conducting their own due diligence.
2. Anchoring Bias: Investors often fixate on an initial piece of information, like a stock's price or analyst rating, and use it as a reference point for future decisions. This "anchoring bias" can lead them to ignore negative information or cling to overly optimistic outlooks, even when reality contradicts them.
3. Confirmation Bias: Humans are naturally drawn to information that confirms their existing beliefs. In the context of bubbles, this can manifest as investors seeking out news and analysis that reinforces their bullish sentiment, while ignoring any bearish signals or red flags.
4. Overconfidence: Investors often overestimate their knowledge and ability to predict the market. This "overconfidence" can lead them to take on excessive risk, making them more susceptible to the allure of overvalued stocks in a bubble environment.
5. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): The fear of missing out, or FOMO, is a powerful motivator that can drive irrational behavior. When investors see others profiting from a hot stock, they may be tempted to jump in, even at inflated prices, simply to avoid regret later.
These psychological factors, combined with external factors like low interest rates and media hype, can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. As more investors pile into a specific stock or sector, demand outstrips supply, pushing prices higher. This reinforces the initial belief in the stock's potential, attracting even more investors, further inflating the bubble.
However, bubbles are inherently unsustainable. Eventually, reality sets in, fundamentals catch up, and the bubble bursts. This can lead to significant losses for investors who were caught in the euphoria.
Therefore, understanding the psychological drivers of bubbles is crucial for investors. By recognizing these biases and remaining grounded in fundamental analysis, investors can avoid getting swept away by the excitement and make informed decisions that prioritize long-term value over short-term gains.
SMCI to $1,300/$1,400 in coming 1/2 monthsSMCI is a great buying opportunity here offering great upside potential. I see a 30/45% move over the coming weeks/months.
