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SMCI trade ideas

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Faces Securities Fraud LawsuitSuper Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) is navigating turbulent waters as the company faces a class action lawsuit alleging violations of federal securities laws. The Schall Law Firm, a national shareholder rights litigation firm, has filed a lawsuit against Super Micro for potential violations of Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as well as Rule 10b-5. The litigation involves accusations of misleading investors and possibly inflating financial figures. Shareholders who purchased SMCI securities between August 10, 2021, and August 26, 2024, are urged to contact the law firm before the October 29, 2024, deadline. Despite the legal headwinds, Super Micro’s stock is making waves ahead of a highly anticipated 10-for-1 stock split, which is scheduled to take effect after the closing bell on September 30, 2024. On the technical side, the stock has rebounded by 4% in recent trading, signaling renewed investor interest. However, the company has lost nearly half of its value over the past three months, weighed down by disappointing fiscal Q4 earnings and allegations of “accounting manipulation” by short seller Hindenburg Research. Legal Troubles and Market Sentiment The class action lawsuit represents a major challenge for Super Micro Computer as it grapples with accusations that could severely damage investor confidence. Violations of securities law can lead to significant penalties, reputational damage, and a prolonged legal battle, all of which could negatively affect the company’s stock price. Adding to these troubles is Hindenburg Research’s scathing report, which alleges that the company engaged in improper accounting practices, contributing to the stock's volatility in recent months. This report has stirred skepticism among some investors, although others remain focused on Super Micro’s long-term potential, particularly in the fast-growing artificial intelligence (AI) server market. Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Despite these setbacks, NASDAQ:SMCI stock is attempting to recover from its sharp decline and has recently shown some signs of life. On Monday, the stock rose by 1.78%, trading at a relative strength index (RSI) of 43, indicating that it is emerging from an oversold condition, but still showing some weakness. The RSI remains below 50, suggesting that NASDAQ:SMCI is still working to overcome bearish momentum. SMCI’s price movement has been oscillating within a descending broadening wedge formation since reaching its all-time high in March 2024. This pattern is often viewed as a bullish reversal signal once a breakout occurs, but so far, the stock has struggled to maintain upward momentum. The lower trendline of the wedge around $357 has held as key support in recent weeks, and a failure to defend this level could send shares tumbling toward $230, where previous troughs were established between August and October of last year. On the upside, the stock faces significant resistance around $700, a level that aligns with the 200-day moving average. A breakout above this resistance could trigger a rally toward $975, a price level that corresponds with several swing highs from earlier in the year. AI Server Demand and Innovation While Super Micro (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) grapples with its legal issues, the company still holds substantial promise as a first mover in AI server infrastructure. The demand for AI server technology, particularly liquid cooling rack systems, is expected to surge as artificial intelligence applications grow. This market opportunity has led analysts at Needham to issue a “buy” rating for SMCI, with a price target of $600, which represents a potential upside of 31% from the stock's current price of $457.27. Super Micro’s expertise in high-performance computing solutions positions it well to capitalize on the rising demand for AI servers. The company's AI-focused products, including its liquid cooling rack systems, are seen as cutting-edge technology that could play a crucial role in addressing the growing data needs of AI workloads. The Path Forward: Legal Risks vs. Market Potential As SMCI prepares for its stock split and navigates its legal battles, investors will be watching closely to see how the company balances the risks of the lawsuit with its promising opportunities in the AI server market. The ongoing legal challenges could weigh on the stock in the short term, but the company’s innovative technology and growing demand for AI infrastructure offer long-term growth potential. For investors, key technical levels such as $357 and $700 will be important markers for determining whether the stock can regain its footing or continue to slide. With the stock split and lawsuit on the horizon, Super Micro Computer remains a stock to watch closely in the coming weeks. Conclusion Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) finds itself at a critical juncture. The class action lawsuit for potential securities fraud, coupled with accusations from Hindenburg Research, presents significant risks. However, the company’s forward-looking focus on AI servers and liquid cooling systems provides a compelling case for long-term growth. As the stock split nears and legal proceedings unfold, investors should keep a close eye on both the technical price levels and any updates on the lawsuit, as these factors will heavily influence SMCI’s trajectory in the near future.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by DEXWireNews
2
SMCI - Can Super Micro Computer regain trust of investors?Super Micro Computer received non compliance note from Nasdaq for failing to timely file its annual report for the period ending June 30 by the Aug. 29 deadline. The company said it had 60 days to file the report or submit a plan to regain compliance. After Hindenburg short report and notice from Nasdaq, much negativity already priced in. If they can file their report for ending June 30, rebound started from just below 400 , might reach 530-usd (61.8%). In the end, revenue growth for fiscal year is expected at 80%.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by murat_cal
SMCI Bottom and Christmas Rally To ComeLight Fundamental: It is a stock called SMCI (or Super Mico Computer). It is a US company that makes super powerful computers and servers. The world needs servers to help run things like big websites, apps, and AI. The stock price fell by half. So, it is selling at a discount for what it is really worth. So, it is a good chance to buy it. Technicals: Gartley-like pattern diagonal support engulfing bullish pattern with d3 volume and volume confirmation a-b-c completion at a 78.2% fib pullback Entry is above the weekly engulfing bullish candle at 475.44. Target is, tentatively, 1500. Note: preparing for either an election rally or a Christmas rally in stocks
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Rocketman
Article Title: Is AI Just Hype?In the whirlwind of AI's rapid ascent, a critical question emerges: Is the hype surrounding AI justified, or are we witnessing a bubble fueled by inflated valuations and limited innovation? Let's delve deep into the AI industry, separating the signal from the noise and providing a sobering reality check. The Super Micro Cautionary Tale The financial woes of Super Micro Computer serve as a stark warning. Despite the soaring demand for AI hardware, the company's internal challenges highlight the risks of investing solely in market enthusiasm. This case underscores the importance of **industry openness** and **due diligence** in the face of AI's allure. A Landscape of Contrasts The broader AI landscape is a tapestry of contrasting narratives. While pioneers like DeepMind and Tesla are pushing the boundaries of AI applications, a multitude of companies are capitalizing on the hype with products lacking substance. This proliferation of **AI hype** has created a toxic environment characterized by inflated valuations and a lack of substantive innovation. Market Dynamics and Future Prospects As the market for AI hardware matures, saturation and potential price drops loom. NVIDIA's dominance may be challenged by competitors, reshaping the industry landscape. The future of AI, however, lies in the development of more sophisticated systems capable of collaboration and learning. The integration of **quantum computing** could revolutionize AI, unlocking solutions to complex problems that are currently beyond our reach. Conclusion The AI industry is a complex landscape, filled with both promise and peril. While the hype surrounding AI may be tempting, it's imperative to scrutinize each company's core innovation and value. As the market matures and competition intensifies, those who can deliver **real value** and **technological advancements** will ultimately prevail. The Super Micro case serves as a stark reminder that in the realm of AI, substance, not hype, is the true currency of success.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by signalmastermind
2
Technical Analysis of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)Upon analyzing the stock SMCI , we observe a significant turning point starting in 2022, following a long period of sideways movement where the stock struggled to break above the $40 level. After this prolonged sideways phase, the stock broke out with a clear upward trend, highlighted by the ascending trendline (green), characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Following a year of gains, the stock entered a consolidation phase but then broke out again to the upside with strength, accompanied by a substantial increase in volume. After reaching a peak in March 2024, the stock began a downward phase that is still ongoing. Potential long entry points, where the stock might bounce or change trend direction, are found in the following two support areas: Support area S1; The POC 1 area. If the stock begins to rally again, it will be crucial to monitor its behavior as it approaches the descending trendline (green), which could serve as a more conservative initial target. More ambitious targets are POC 2 and resistance R1, both within a price range of $900 to $1,000.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by Giovanni_Bandini
SMCI bounce SMCI technicals are oversold, so I'm looking for a bullish bounce. If you take a look at it's stochastic value on the 1 day chart, the fast moving line is waiting to cross over the slow moving line. This can point to a bullish reversal in the near future. Also, as far as positioning, SMCI price is sitting at a major support level on the Triangular trend channel ATR indicator. SMCI ATR is 50, so it can move in wide range depending on the day. I know that SMCI has a lot of bad news factored into it's bearish price action lately. So this could be a big risk or big reward trade depending on what the market decides to do going forward here. But it is worth taking a look at the opportunity in my opinion. 4:1 ratio reward : risk trade idea entry = 390 stop = 360 profit = 530 9/20 expiry options data: Put Volume Total 2,155 Call Volume Total 3,801 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.57 Put Open Interest Total 29,545 Call Open Interest Total 60,080 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.49 10/18 expiry options data: Put Volume Total 1,601 Call Volume Total 1,589 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.01 Put Open Interest Total 25,669 Call Open Interest Total 33,340 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.77 11/15 expiry options data: Put Volume Total 167 Call Volume Total 663 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.25 Put Open Interest Total 15,190 Call Open Interest Total 17,048 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.89
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Options360
1
WALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow JonesWALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow Jones Be careful with Walmart as you can see cocoa and st microelectronic also rose to very very high historical levels and look at the correction that we had immediately after at least 40% drop This action can have a significant impact on the Dow Jones A strong correction could lower the DJIA index I alert you on this I alert you especially on the notion of "stock market cycle" and "seasonality" Walmart is overbought you just have to look at your technical indicators RSI, ROC, Stochastic, exponential moving average, Ichimoku, Fibonacci retracement. We could go much much lower so be careful this action is overbought Monitor your above-mentioned indicators.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
SMCI: Pay close attention to these key points.Since our last analysis, SMCI has lost its main support points, and is now in a strong downtrend, without much hope of reversing. On the daily chart, the stock has seen a sharp drop from the highs above $640, the previous top, and the price is currently hovering around $420. This represents a major decline, reflecting a downward trend that intensified after breaking through key support levels, such as $478.56. The 21-day EMA, which acted as a dynamic resistance, has been consistently pointing downward, confirming the prevailing bearish sentiment. The next key support is near $395.18, where the price is currently consolidating. If it breaks below this level, it could quickly move toward the next significant support around $357.00, as indicated on the weekly chart. The weekly chart echoes this bearish momentum. After peaking around $1,200, SMCI has faced a severe sell-off, with the 21-week EMA indicating the continuation of the decline. The $357.00 level, which coincides with a previous resistance-turned-support from earlier in 2023, stands out as a crucial area to watch. If the price continues to slide, this level may provide the next line of defense. Failing to hold there could result in further losses, potentially targeting lower price regions. At this stage, we should monitor the reaction around $395 and $357 levels, as these will likely dictate whether the stock can stabilize or whether the downtrend will accelerate. Holding these levels might create an opportunity for a rebound, but the bearish pressure is still strong. A bullish reaction could materialize if SMCI's price breaks the $478 area again, suggesting a bounce to the $640 or the 21-week EMA. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
Is SMCI a buy? SMCI has lagged NVDA and many other semis. Were now approaching a critical area...its make or break! positive Daily divergence provides some hopes that were close to a near term bounce however after today semiconductor selloff the whole complex was shattered. The fact that SMCI remained green while NVDA was down 10% should be a small win in itself... The question is can it hold and build on this? I do think its better positioned for a long than most semis. No confirmed technical breakdown has occurred yet
NASDAQ:SMCI
by Trading-Capital
1
SMCI SUNDAY.. TOMORROW'S LABOR DAY.... LOOKING FOR THE PRICE ACTION ON TUESDAY. looking for a reversal pattern to go long. there is tremendous volatility on this Market and no real structure which means you can make a significant return in a small amount of time if you're on the right side of the market and you do it at the right time.... in this case looking for buyers before everyone else figures this out. if you take a look at this Market objectively, this was a great Market to go long on one swing, and then go short in the other swing.... and probably will be a great trade on the swing going higher as soon as you see evidence of buyers. markets that have great swings for both buyers and sellers are markets that make buyers and sellers substantial profits.... the quality of expanded markets.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by ScottBogatin
3
SMCI This is honestly the last stand.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) suffered yet another brutal sell-off following the announcement of a delay in filing its 10-K annual report. This may prove to be a catastrophic one as technically not only did it fail exactly on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but also saw the stock test the bottom of its multi-year parabolic support, the Higher Lows Zone since the week of July 05 2022. This was basically the last time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) got tested with the current week coming the closest since then. The 1W MA100 last broke during the unexpected COVID flash crash in March 2020, so technically it is the stock's longest Support. If it fails to hold and SMCI closes a 1W candle below it, the long-term parabolic growth pattern is invalidated and we will risk testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at a price potentially around $250.00. If on the other hand the 1W MA100 holds (and we will need the news sentiment to drastically reverse in order to achieve that, something that currently can't be seen on the horizon), then we can see another +400% long-term rally, in which case we estimate a Target around $2000, the stock's next critical psychological growth level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCI
by TradingShot
2
Mean Reversion Trade - Ticker: $SMCISetup: Mean Reversion Trade Key Criteria: 1. The price has tested a prior breakout or breakdown level, a 15+ day pivot in price, a monthly or weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG), or a weekly/monthly gap. 2. Market Cap is above $10 billion. 3. The price swept highs, closed lower, and there is a gap between the open and the previous or second-to-last candle close. Specific to SMCI: * SMCI has a market cap of $25.9 billion. * The stock closed with a relative volume of 4.90. * SMCI is holding a major level at $400. I rate this level a 9/10 due to its psychological significance and the fact that it aligns with a weekly Fair Value Gap. * The stock is down more than 50% in the past quarter. Trade Details: * Position: Long * Entry: $445.90 * Stop Loss: $395.16 * Risk: 0.75% of account equity * Order Type: Buy Stop Order Targets: * Target 1: $536 (1.3R) — based on resistance at a weekly Fair Value Gap. * Target 2: $587 (2.79R) — also based on resistance at a weekly Fair Value Gap. Exit Techniques: * Scale out 33% of the original position size at the first target ($536). * Scale out another 33% of the original position size at the second target ($587). * Exit the remaining 34% of the original position size using the new 3-day low after the new high method, or by focusing on a Reason2Sell approach. This involves analyzing the daily and 65-minute charts each day before the market opens to determine if the stock is showing signs of strength or weakness. Reasoning: SMCI experienced a sharp drop of over 25% in one day, bringing it back near the breakout level of $350, from which it had previously surged to $1,229. The stock is currently trading around $440 and has held the $400 level well, indicating strong support at this key weekly Fair Value Gap. The trade aims to capitalize on the potential upside following this period of extreme capitulation, supported by daily consolidation, strong volume, and an intraday V-bounce pattern. The stock traded with a large spread yesterday, and the initial stop loss from the entry point is 11.38%. This is significant, and I plan to add multiple positions if the stock tests below $420/$410 again. The goal of this trade is to catch the end of the capitulation period. With NVDA earnings now out of the way, semiconductor stocks may either continue to sell off or attract investors who perceive them as undervalued. The strategy is primarily based on weekly support levels, particularly $400 and $410, as well as the fact that the stock has declined significantly. Stop Loss Strategy: * The stop loss will be adjusted after the first profit target is reached and shares are scaled out. Additional Notes: * Set orders to automatically scale out shares. If the take profit (TP) is hit and you are still holding the full position size, manage your risk accordingly. * If you have any questions, please feel free to ask. I am here to support and help you understand how to become a consistent trader. Position Size: * To be determined.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by thinkCNE
5
SMCI Stock Plunges Amid Delayed 10-K Filing and AllegationsSuper Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) faced a turbulent week, with its stock plunging 25.8% after the company announced a delay in filing its annual report on Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This announcement came just a day after Hindenburg Research, a prominent short-seller, accused the company of accounting irregularities and other potential compliance failures, sparking investor concern and a sharp market reaction. Super Micro Computer Delays 10-K Filing Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), a key player in the data center industry, stated that it needs additional time to complete its assessment of internal controls over financial reporting for the fiscal year ending June 30. The company plans to file a Notification of Late Filing on Form 12b-25 but did not provide a clear timeline for the completion of its 10-K filing. The delay has raised alarm among investors, as timely financial reporting is crucial for maintaining market confidence and transparency. The delay also coincides with a critical report from Hindenburg Research, which accused Super Micro of "glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues." Although the report lacks concrete details, it has contributed to heightened uncertainty and volatility in SMCI's stock. Market Reaction and Analyst Responses The market responded swiftly to the news, with NASDAQ:SMCI stock dropping by 25.8% to $406.33 in afternoon trading, its most significant decline since 2020. This sharp drop follows a period of strong performance for the stock, driven by investor enthusiasm for the company's role in supporting AI-driven data center infrastructure. Analyst opinions are divided. CFRA Research analyst Shreya Gheewala downgraded her rating on SMCI stock from "buy" to "hold" following the Hindenburg report, citing concerns over potential reputational damage and delayed financial reporting. Gheewala also lowered her price target from $729 to $454, reflecting the increased risk associated with the company. Conversely, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an "overweight" or "buy" rating on the stock, with a price target of $950. Chatterjee emphasized that while Super Micro may have areas for improvement in governance, transparency, and investor communication, these deficiencies do not necessarily indicate wrongdoing. He believes the company's recent growth and market positioning remain strong, particularly given the demand for AI server infrastructure. Potential Benefits for Competitors The negative sentiment around Super Micro (NASDAQ: SMCI) could present an opportunity for its competitors. According to Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani, Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) is well-positioned to capitalize on any market share losses suffered by Super Micro in the AI server segment. Dell, a major player in the industry, could benefit as customers and investors seek alternatives amid Super Micro's current challenges. Impact on Leadership and Wealth The turmoil has also significantly impacted the wealth of Super Micro's CEO, Charles Liang. Liang, who co-founded the company with his wife Sara Liu in 1993, saw his net worth collapse by 66% from a high of $9 billion in March to $3.1 billion. Despite this dramatic decrease, Liang’s fortune remains up by about $1 billion for the year, reflecting the volatile nature of tech stocks and investor sentiment. Looking Forward: Uncertainty and Opportunity While the delayed 10-K filing and the allegations from Hindenburg Research have caused immediate setbacks for Super Micro Computer, the company’s long-term prospects remain uncertain. The market reaction underscores the importance of transparency and effective communication with investors. Super Micro must now focus on restoring confidence by addressing these concerns and providing clarity regarding its financial reporting and internal controls. Meanwhile, rivals like Dell stand to benefit from any fallout, potentially gaining market share as Super Micro navigates this challenging period. As the situation unfolds, all eyes will be on how Super Micro handles these issues and whether it can regain its footing in a highly competitive market.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by DEXWireNews
2