HIGH chance of a bottom in BONDS great time to enter bonds, as TLT is signaling a bottoming formation and yields most likely have topped
TLT trade ideas
Opening (IRA): TLT April 17th 82 Covered Call... for an 80.60 debit.
Comments: Laddering out at strikes better than what I currently have on (Feb 87's, March 84's). Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short calls. Plus, gotta be in shares to grab that divvy.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 80.60/shares
Max Profit: 1.40
ROC at Max: 1.74% (excluding dividends)
Ordinarily, I take profit at 50% max, but will wait until the dividend immediately preceding the monthly expiry drops before considering taking profit.
Opening (IRA): TLT February 21st 87 Covered Call... for a 85.97 debit.
Comments: Going long at or near November lows, selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. I'm also looking to snag the January and potentially the February dividends here. This is a bit longer-dated than I ordinarily like to go, but I'm not doing a ton here besides waiting for January setups to come in/be managed.
The obvious variant is to sell the standard -30 delta against: TLT Feb 21st 94 covered call, 89.72 debit, 4.28 max. 4.77% ROC at max where the short call is paying >1% of the strike price in credit.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 85.97/share
Max Profit (ex. dividends): 1.03
ROC at Max: 1.20%
50% Max: .52
ROC at 50% Max: .60%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max after at least the January dividend drops.
Opening (IRA): TLT March 21st 84 Covered Call... for an 82.72 debit.
Comments: Laddering out into 2025 at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, looking to snag January, February and potentially March dividends ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 82.72/share
Max Profit: 1.28
ROC at Max: 1.55%
50% Max: .64
ROC at 50% Max: .77%
Opening (IRA): TLT March 21st 81 Covered Call... for a 79.98 debit.
Comments: Adding a "rung" in March at a break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 79.98/share
Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.02
ROC at Max (Excluding Dividends): 1.28%
Generally looking to roll out-of-the-money short call down and out for a credit that is greater than the amount of strike destruction at expiry to generate a quasi-free cash flow setup consisting of (a) short call premium; and (b) dividends. This differs somewhat than what I would ordinarily do, which is generally money/take/run at 50% max.
$TLT Bullish CypherReal nice look here on TLT for a wave 1 and 2, forming the bullish cypher at the lows.
This is an update to our trade from Oct 23 and a secondary entry here on the 3day, with triple bullish divergence on the weekly.
Macro momentum hasnt turned up quite yet, but obviously on the higher time frames thats going to be lagged pretty good. The daily however is just now beginning to cross up, and will continue rising above 85, with an expectation of exhaustion as high as 130.
The daily ADX is also rolling over and signaling the end of the bearish trend. Volatility is still contracting on the daily, so it could take a little time to get an expanding environment of the lows, which would be inline with a type 2 reaction / db locally here at the 886.
Theres always a chance youll get a sweep of the lows for a spring event, but that isnt being suggested here. If this happens i would consider it an opportunity for options, if the break lower is rejected and the range is reclaimed as support.
A lot of implications here if we see this play out.
TLT long, long and only long, don't give up and keep it with youAgain me and again my TLT)))
First of all we should keep safety and creditworthiness U.S. Treasuries are backed by the U.S. government, making them one of the safest investments globally. They are considered risk-free in terms of credit risk, as the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt.
The second one and the most important point - we have ATTRACTIVE Yield Opportunities
10y 4.77%
20y 5.041%
30y 4.959%
Starting from the 1980s, this is the second time the Fed is cutting interest rates while yields are rising. Of course, this carries certain risks, and experienced investors know that the 1980s were not the best times for reliable investments.
The market is anticipating a new wave of inflation, and professional participants do not agree with the Fed's 1% cut. Especially with the 50-basis-point decision in September. Up to this point, many believe that the fight against inflation has failed, and some banks even fear that not only will the rates remain unchanged, but further hikes are possible.
No, no, and once again, no.
With inflation at 3% or a bit higher, rates of 4.5% cannot logically rise further. They might remain unchanged for an extended period or be reduced slightly, taking macroeconomic indicators into account.
Currently, the market is not moving out of fear of a strong labor market or high inflation but exclusively out of fears related to the Trump administration. These include promises of new sanctions, tough measures against migration, and tax relief. I honestly believe that of the aforementioned, only the tax relief will be fully implemented. There will be a few formal sanctions, primarily targeting China, while migration policies will remain election promises and not actionable programs.
In the face of all this, we have very low TLT and very high yields for 20+ or even 10y, which are truly worth our bid.
US Stocks - The Situation Is CriticalFollowing the strong US economic data, the markets are in panic mode: Hopes of further interest rate cuts are fading like ice cream in the summer sun. A look at the TLT chart does not bode well. The monthly chart shows extremely strong hidden bearish divergences in the OBV. I have written an indicator for private use that draws these divergences clearly visible on the chart (blue line: price; green line: OBV).
Let's not kid ourselves: The situation for the US markets is currently quite grim from both a technical and fundamental perspective.
TLT 2024 - DRV Monthly Seasonality StatsThe TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) has exhibited notable volatility and seasonal trends from 2015 to 2024. Historically, TLT shows consistent positive returns in January, with significant gains in 2015 and 2023, but negative returns in 2022. February often sees mixed results, with TLT showing both positive and negative returns across the years, notably performing well in 2020 and 2023. March and April typically show more stable returns, with occasional dips in April, particularly in 2018 and 2021. May and June are generally weaker months for TLT, with losses in several years, notably in 2018 and 2022, though 2020 and 2023 displayed some positive movement. July tends to see moderate gains in most years, with especially strong returns in 2019 and 2021. August has a mix of gains and losses, with TLT showing a sharp decline in 2019 and 2022, but improving slightly in other years. September and October show consistent weakness, with TLT typically underperforming in these months. November and December offer some positive results, with strong performances in 2020, 2021, and 2022, which may reflect seasonal market trends or investor rotation into bonds as a safe haven toward the end of the year.
In the recent Federal Reserve meeting, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the central bank's commitment to its dual mandate of fostering maximum employment and maintaining price stability. He noted that the Fed's decisions are data-driven and not influenced by political considerations. However, with the incoming administration expressing concerns over high interest rates, there is potential for tension between the Fed's independent monetary policy and the administration's fiscal objectives. The administration has indicated a preference for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, which could lead to pressure on the Fed to adopt a more accommodative stance. Such political dynamics could influence the Fed's policy decisions, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts or even discussions around negative interest rates. If the Fed were to lower rates significantly or implement negative rates, it could have profound effects on the economy, including encouraging borrowing and spending, potentially leading to higher inflation and impacting the value of the U.S. dollar. For investors in TLT, such policy shifts could affect bond yields and prices, as lower interest rates typically result in higher bond prices. Therefore, monitoring the interplay between the Fed's monetary policy and the administration's fiscal stance will be crucial for understanding future movements in the bond market.
TLT or TMF?Are we heading to a flight to safety while the nation stabilizes under the new administration, all time highs on low breadth, AI fueling junk markets. A DASH to TRASH, often rings the bell for a serious correction, as we have been trained to buy the dip, we may be in a Bull Trap.
Either way, I will have this play on deck.
Share your thoughts on my thoughts... NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:TMF
$TLT long to 110 on February 20, 2025Everything is on the chart.
I am calling for TLT to rally from today's closing price of $86 to $110 by Thursday, February 20, 2025.
The Javier Milei Argentina experiment has been a huge success for Argentina, who is buddy buddy with the J's and Elon Musk, both of whom are buddy buddy with Trump.
At the time of this writing, $105 calls for 2/21/2025 are .05 each. If the target hits, they will be worth $5.0, for a total return of 10,000% (10X).
On the weekly chart, you can see the 200 week SMA coincides with my level on that date as well.
Feel free to share.
TLT HAS BOTTOMED TODAY at 85.34 a perfect .786 of wave A downThe chart posted is the TLT we have now reached a fib relationship at today low of .786 of wave or wave 1 both counts calls for a sharp rally back above 90 plus or mins 1 I have now moved to a 40 % net long in the money calls best of trades wavetimer
TLT BOND ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 7 JAN, 2024©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master.
The entire ((4))-navy wave most recently finished as an (A)(B)(C)-orange Zigzag, and the ((5))-navy wave is turning back to push lower. It is subdividing into waves 1,2-grey, and they are complete, since the high of 94.85 the 3-grey wave is unfolding to push lower, targeting the low of 83.58.
$TLTa good hedge yieahh
volume gap till $117 area
higher lows seem to be forming
If I was conservative I would wait to break previous high and test that new support, but you know me I am already in for long term.
RSI and MACD going up
TLT: Potential Reversal After Completing ABC Correction [LONG]NASDAQ:TLT
Observation:
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) appears to have completed its C-wave of an ABC Elliott Wave correction. Prices have shown signs of consolidation around the critical support zone at $87.50, suggesting the possibility of a double-bottom formation.
Support Zone: TLT is consolidating near the $87.50 level, which has historically acted as strong support.
Elliott Wave Structure: The recent price action indicates the completion of a corrective ABC structure, with the C-wave potentially marking the final low.
Bullish Outlook: If the support holds, the ETF is likely to resume upward momentum, targeting the $94.00 level as the next key resistance.
Double-Bottom Potential: Retesting the support zone could further validate a double-bottom reversal pattern.
Risk Management:
Set stops below $85.14 to minimize downside risk.
Monitor overall market sentiment and bond yield movements, which can heavily influence TLT's price action.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing involve significant risks, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on this analysis. Always trade responsibly and within your own risk tolerance.
Looking to Short TLT Next Week as Market Sentiment Shifts- Key Insights: TLT has been facing increasing pressure due to rising interest
rates and inflation concerns. Trader sentiment appears cautious, reflecting
a potential continuation of downward trends. With the Fed's signal towards
maintaining a hawkish stance, bond prices are likely to remain under
pressure in the near term.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are T1=84.5, T2=83.0. Stop levels are
S1=89.5, S2=90.5. This structure supports a short position considering
current market trends.
- Recent Performance: TLT has been on a decline, reflecting broader market
reactions to interest rate hike expectations. The last trading sessions have
seen fluctuations, but the overall trend points towards bearish sentiment.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts suggest that TLT faces headwinds from economic data
indicating stronger growth, leading to expectations of continued interest
rate increases. The consensus is predominantly negative, with many traders
positioning for further declines.
- News Impact: Recent economic reports highlighting job growth and inflation
have intensified talks of rate hikes, negatively impacting TLT's
performance. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and market volatility
contribute to uncertainty, pushing investors away from long positions in
bonds.
TLT to double bottomTLT might revisit the $80-82 range before creating a double-bottom reversal pattern.
Look at the RSI. I bet that the RSI will go down to the trendline and find support before bouncing.
I would start DCAing out from $120 for 40% gain.
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TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) is an exchange-traded fund that primarily holds U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 20 years or more. As a result, TLT tends to be sensitive to changes in long-term interest rates.
Why buy TLT?
Interest Rate Outlook : Investors often purchase TLT when they expect long-term interest rates to fall. Declining rates increase bond prices, which can boost the value of TLT.
Safe Haven : In times of market volatility or economic uncertainty, TLT can act as a defensive holding, because U.S. Treasuries are generally considered lower risk compared to stocks.
Portfolio Diversification : Adding TLT to a portfolio can help diversify equity exposure and potentially reduce overall volatility.
$TLT - It is getting crazy!NASDAQ:TLT The bond market seems out of its mind. We are basically less than 5% from the peak of the Fed's rate hiking cycle. Pretty sure funds are shorting it.
Currently, it is sitting on critical support. It's possible that this may be the bottom. 👀
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
Update: TLT March 21st 95 Covered CallsA "refresh" of a fairly long-running cash flow setup, with the cash flow emanating from (a) short call premium and (b) dividends.
As of the 12/18/24 dividend, my break even is at 85.81 (including dividends). (See Post Below).
One of my New Year's resolutions is to be a little more patient and roll out the short call on approaching worthless, targeting the short call strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit, but my mouse hand occasionally seems to have a mind of its own ... .
Again TLT, again 108 targetI’m still supporting 20+ bonds, and this time I’ve chosen the technical approach.
I’m not entirely sure if I’ve made the correct calculations using the XABCD pattern, but the picture seems accurate.
When the market has concerns about tax reductions, strict measures against migrants, sanctions, etc., and how all of this will affect prices and, specifically, inflation, don’t forget to consider the opposite side of reality.
Before all these factors fully materialize, it will take years. During those years, the Trump administration is preparing to make aggressive cuts in public spending, introduce new optimization plans, and more. This can have a direct negative impact on both inflation and the labor market.
Don't give up and buy TLTWe have a new rate cut, congratulations! The Fed rate is now 4.5%.
What is happening in the market, and why does the effect of the rate seem to "work in reverse"? After all, TLT should have been above 100 long ago, especially after so many rate cuts.
Yes, that's entirely correct, so why are all our accounts in the red?
First and foremost—the most important thing—never sell U.S. Treasury bonds at a loss.
Second, the market is "inclined" or "disposed" to believe that the Fed is either lying or doesn't have a proper grasp of the situation. Due to domestic political changes and the effects of Trump's policies, inflation is expected to remain high for a prolonged period—potentially above 3%.
Even in that scenario, a yield of 4.7% or higher on 20+ year bonds remains attractive. More on that later, but in the real sector, following the elections, the Chinese yuan has already depreciated by over 5% against the U.S. dollar.
RIGHT NOW, the U.S. debt market is the most attractive market with its 3.1% economic growth.
TLT BONDS ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 19 DEC, 2024©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation).
The entire ((4))-navy wave most recently finished as an (A)(B)(C)-orange Zigzag, and the ((5))-navy wave is turning back to push lower.
It is subdividing into waves 1,2-grey, and they are complete, since the high of 94.85 the 3-grey wave is unfolding to push lower, targeting the low of 83.58.
easy buyNASDAQ:TLT is only 8.55% off major all time support.
For a precious metals miners investor, being down 8-9% before going up is the same as putting socks on..easy.
Risk/reward looks in favor of accumulation here.
