The second wave is over, the third wave is startingABC shark pattern
AB=0.38 5-A
BC=1.6 AB
C-3=1.6 BC
BB trade ideas
The New Blackberry - What's Next?The New Blackberry. Some due diligence.
Warren Buffet says that "it's not timing the market but time in the market that makes all the difference." Of course that's probably easier for Buffet that's worth 97.6 billion than the average traders, investors, and speculators that have a slightly less robust account to work with. How should one look at Blackberry that has had an overall positive 2021 but over 2 months of a downward trend though it has had three notable uptrends.
Perhaps it is possible using the Warren principle to consider a reasonable risk/reward scenario be it bullish or bearish. It is worth considering what then is the best case and worst case scenario for the new Blackberry that has attempted to make a discernible comeback from a failed phone company into an Internet of Things/Smart Car OS, and Cyber Security company. Let's look at the bad news and the good news.
The Bad News
The bad news is that Blackberry as of closing Thursday April 1st has shaved over 2/3 of its all time highs for 2021. This has been extremely disappointing for long term investors and bullish investors that have invested in much of February onward. This has generated positive benefit for bearish investors that have now seen three short lived rallies attempting to reclaim 2021 highs all fail to sustain and continually break lower. Professional investors have given Blackberry predominantly negative review for much of 2021 after the short term 2021. rally ended in January. Bearish speculators are hoping that Blackberry is going to fall back to pre-2020 Q4 price levels. The 18.1 % dip in March 2021 has been net bearish though there has been a few good bull runs for short term traders/speculators/investors during those periods but overall has been downward. Stocks go up and down.
The Good News
Long term investors have to asks why did the price decline and not retry to the early 2021 highs on three attempted rallies? The first option is that the price simply is not justified at any level above 10-12 dollars much less in the 20s or above. Bearish speculators would state that it was merely a Reddit WSB inspired spike or "pump and dump" that combined with a spat of positive Blackberry news in Q4 2020. They would say that it is "buy the rumor and sell the news." They would cite that the early tech rally of Q1 2021 pushed the price to unnatural and unjustifiable levels. The second option is that the price is simply making new high and new lows and it attempts to define a new price and possible justification for a further bullish price point in either the near or long term. It is fair to say that like much of the tech market has been in a bearish cycle for much of late Q1 2021. Bears would note that the entire tech sector of the US market has not had any sustained positive price action for much of February and March. The third option is that the price is simply a reflection of a general rotation out of tech sectors into other sectors.
Also for good news, in late 2020 Blackberry announced partnerships with Amazon in the USA and Baidu in China have not yet been monetized. Both companies are major players in their respective countries. Investing is always speculative on future growth but Blackberry has overall increased over prior years and John Chen has recently began a public rebranding of Blackberry. A several million dollar ad in the New York Times before mixed earnings is a bullish sign that Blackberry is anticipating growth. Blackberry also has entered negotiations for selling off part of its massive patent licence to a major North American entity. Many are speculating that this is Facebook which it has been in negotiations through a court settlement over Facebook infringing over Blackberry patents. It has won countless awards for both its operating system and security suite based of their patented artificial intelligence driven security. The Biden administrations focus on renewable energy, smart technology, and security should be good for Blackberry that has recently redesigned its website and gone fully into focusing on the auto sector using its QNX Operating System for their smart cars. Chen has also had a great track run as CEO of previous successful companies that have had turnaround stories. Those companies have had very impressive increases for investors. BBs investors conference call noted that two new automakers have committed to using QNX. Those are Honda and Toyota. None of these new partnerships have been monetized.
Let's look at some numbers.
In 2021 as of April 1, 2021, there are currently 561 million investors compared to 614 million in 2020. The increase of 53 million new investors is impressive. A majority of 70% bought in between 10.67 and 24.74. This anecdotal evidence believes that a large majority of investors believe that the price is going to at sometime going to go up sometime in the future be it 2021 or later. Perhaps these investors are in the Warren Buffett camp and if Blackberry does go up then they may have timed their entry poorly but will be rewarded for their time in the market.
So what about the charts?
Blackberry could fall all the way back to 6.22. The upside goes up 10.17 and then has three levels of upward resistance before heading back to the upper teens and mid-20s that it needs to break to get back to the mid-20s. The MacD indicator has had only one recent positive run between March 12-18. There has been a sustained sell off pushing the price down to the upper 8s at 8.60. It seems as if Blackberry may be entering a fourth upward trend as the sell pressure should be giving a way to a buy cycle and there should be an accompanying price increase. The weekly levels show a low of 8.24 and that there have been 3 downward trend candles. This may indicate a positive trend is about to emerge on a weekly cycle.
Some believe that Blackberry is soon about to enter a new and continuous price upgrade. Historical levels of 50-150 plus are not unreasonable given that Blackberry very well may prove that it deserves a seat at the table for its new focuses in software and security. I personally am very bullish over the future of Blackberry and I am a long term investor.
Possible bullish scenarios include another over-all uptrend in Blackberry especially as it monetizes new partnerships and a cyclical return to technology. Price action moving upward also tend to coincide with both investor optimism and general market optimism. Only time will tell if that is accurate. Who knows maybe Buffet's Canadian counterpart in Prem Watsa who sits on Blackberry's board and is a major investor will prove that Warren's maximum with Blackberry is right. There is also a possibility that another run occurs when institutional investors are ready to move the price upwards and that this down cycle turns in to another bear trap. If so the question is where does the price go next? Long term investors believe upwards of $24 dollars plus.
Not financial advice. For entertainment and educational purposes only.
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$BB bullish divergence updatedcheck out the chart price aciton vs RSI .
Good time to buy, i am super long on $BB anyways, i see the stock pps shooting past $15 and holding within the next 2 years.
Do your own DD on this company, but theyve been making quiet moves away from what they are primarily known for. Moving into cybersecurity, AI, etc. Working with AWS for Car AI programs etc. Has the potential for yuge gainz.
Now is a good time to buy. My price targets are $15, $20, $30. I think this stock will experience some of its former glory.
buy now, hold for a long time. if you are an OTM options trader I personally would go OTM years down the road. I have no specific time frame but expect the stock to break out within the next few days.
Also there is potentially a double bottom here. Assuming the pricing reverses. Could be good for a quick swing/scalp trade.
Bullish Divergence $BBcheck out the chart price aciton vs RSI.
Good time to buy, i am super long on $BB anyways, i see the stock pps shooting past $15 and holding within the next 2 years.
Do your own DD on this company, but theyve been making quiet moves away from what they are primarily known for. Moving into cybersecurity, AI, etc. Working with AWS for Car AI programs etc. Has the potential for yuge gainz.
BB - There is no spoonWhy do we hold BlackBerry to a higher standard when it comes to their Financial performance? Today was BlackBerry's earnings report and what were the takeaways?
- The first thing that stood out: BlackBerry will not be diluting shares. John Chen stated that there is no reason for this.
- Positive cash flow
- Revenue estimates were missed, but BlackBerry is not blowing their money on hookers.
- Ivy will be in early access as soon as October 2021 with launch set for February 2022
- BlackBerry has 23 of 25 design wins with EV manufacturers! Who's missing Tesla and DMC (This is not to be taken on a serious tone)?
- Launched
Now let's talk about Patent money, what happened here?
- To summarize, patent sell off is still being negotiated and this has halted any revenue from this for now.
and I quote Steve Rai
"Further to John’s comments regarding negotiations relating to a potential sale, licensing activities have been limited not only due to the ongoing negotiations, but also because revenue from additional transactions that could have been completed in the quarter would have been treated as contingent revenue and deferred to future periods. Therefore, had negotiations not been in progress, we believe licensing revenue would have been higher."
So again, why do we hold BlackBerry to higher standard that other companies in the same space? Is John Chen a perfect CEO? Not by any stretch but we have to believe in his vision and end game.
What do we see in the chart?
First we see a pennant formation. It is unclear if we will fall through the floor because of a perceived 'bad earnings call'. This market is definitely not 'following its rules' anymore. We live in the upside down.
Right now the 4/1 angle is our resistance and 8/1 serves as support. It is unclear if we will fall through. All pointers appear bullish but that's beyond the case because this market does not seem to be playing on fundamentals right now. We may or may not make a bounce at the 8/1 angle, only time will tell.
The pitchfork is showing us the general direction we have been heading since our first major move back in Oct 2020.
All the signals are there, yet they are being ignored.
BB - The little fruit that couldBlackBerry.
BlackBerry is a company that has all the odds stacked against it. Hedge funds, analysts, triple letter Government entities (looking at you SEC) and shorts. Specially analysts and financial social media outlets seem to have some sort agenda against pushing positive BlackBerry articles. BlackBerry social media has been very active and this is being actively ignored by financial social media outlets. BlackBerry is fighting the greatest battle it has ever fought.
What are we seeing?
Volume, volume has been low during the past month. My thought is that LONGS are holding their positions tightly and have no reason to sell (this kills the crab). The volume we see is mainly shorts making a quick buck and what very little swing trades that can be had.
Price has been moving from $13 to high $8s. Accumulation being done at prices lower than $10.
MA-200
This week we are very close to making contact with MA200 line. I think we may touch the line by today's close. This worries me a bit because ER is next week and we could easily drop from given all of the odds that are stacked against $BB (see first paragraph).
ER
BlackBerry ER is next week. Depending on how good (hoping for this) or bad (very unlikely, but that is just my bias) it is we will see the price drop further down into the $8 realm possibly $7 dollar realm. We should have no issue recovering from this and any accumulation down there should be highly encouraged. Remember we have the odds stacked against, that is no longer an opinion, there is plenty of evidence.
Final thoughts
You can observe in the chart the story being told by the pitchfork and pitchfan. BlackBerry has an enormous upside potential, we are just facing some public sentiment battles that are being totally manufactured. BlackBerry fundamentals have not changed, John Chen has formed many alliances, everything points to a strong $BB future. We will eventually weather all these conditions.
BB Time For a Buy? Quite Possibly a Yes. March 19, 2021Hello BB enthusiast and investors,
After several days of the Nasdaq tanking, BB has held it's own. Buyers keep stepping up and buying despite what had been overall net negative sales. Price currently seems to be holding on the low end of that low end of 11.06 support and currently is sitting at 11.07 on the one minute as of 11:50 on Friday March 19, 2021. Those that believe in the future of the new Blackberry may want to buy into this strength to a push up to 12.26 or see if a pullback to 19.90s for a long buy forward. Shorts will won't to keep the price deflated below 11.06 and if they fail to accomplish this then their should be positive forward upward momentum going into earnings.
Daily RSI does indicate a "sell phase" and the price continues to rise. This may be shorts riding the trend up to switch short at the top of the price action. Fridays historically are a day many open bearish positions for Mondays. This may give long pause but proper sizing should mitigate long-sided risk.The overall upward trend seems to indicate a continuation in upward momentum.
Blackberry needs to continue the trend and should not only reclaim 11.50s which is psychological support but push past it in the short term.
Not financial advice, for entertainment and educational purposes only.
The next Blackberry bounce, new long entry opportunity?Blackberry NYSE:BB has kept support in the 11-12 dollar range and is currently pre-market testing the prior support levels at 11.06 as of 8 AM on March 17. Short-term bullish longs may want to enter long for a bounce back to the 12.26 mark and keeping in mind that 11.06 is downward support. Note that the past two daily candles (March 15 & 16) were with a great deal of sell pressure which would both be short term investors/speculators exiting and bearish speculators shorting for a breakdown bellow 11 dollars. If buy pressure increases today then this would continue the week of predominantly bullish momentum. It would be a clear upward continuation signal. It is worth noting that bearish reversals have happened twice since the all time highs in late January. Over all direction is still bullish on the daily chart. Today (March 17) should be a retest of the 12.26 resistance level and should be a buy volume day to reverse the last two days of over all sell pressure.
For entertainment and educational advice. Not financial advice.
BBBlackBerry (NYSE:BB) is a stock I wrote about recently as one to watch for a potential reversal as one that has been on my bottom scan. Friday that reversal came to fruition to the tune of an 10.75% gain for the stock. Momentum indicators are looking bullish, with MACD crossing abv the signal line and the RSI breaching 50 and presently lies at 54.76. Watch for continuation next week.
