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WTI Crude Oil 6 Month Spread Synthetic

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4A1! trade ideas

2024-05-01 - a daily price action after hour update - oil Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big selling today and melted through 80. My thesis over the past weeks was a correction to around 77. We are at 79 and the odds are very high that we get there. Might see another bounce first though. Unsure and we have to wait for tomorrow. current market cycle: most recent bull trend is over and we are correcting - probably trading range more than bear trend key levels: trading range 77 - 85 bull case: 3 pushes down on many higher tf charts and bulls are reasonable if they buy 79 for a bounce. At least a retest of 80 is logical. 80.50 should be max if bears are strong and then I suspect market to move more sideways before we try another sell off to 77. Invalid below 78.6. bear case: Bears outdid themselves today. I have drawn many dotted bear trend lines to visualize how many lower bear trend lines we broke below. If bears continue strongly below 78.6, this might be a bear trend rather a trading range and 77 might not hold for long either. But for now 77 is my main target. Sell-off today from 81 to 79.8 did not touch the 1m 20ema once. short term: Sideways to up is preferred over another sell climax. 79 Should be good support before we try again for 77. If we start strong selling again, fine, but initiating new shorts here at 79 is very bad r:r. Invalid below 78.6 and we might crash down again. medium-long term: Will update this once equities show more weakness. My thesis for many months now is, that we will see a big shift - Equities off - Commodities on. —unchanged. trade of the day: Same play since Monday, short around the 1h 20ema. Works like a charm. Sell off today was very climactic though.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Is a Deeper Correction forming in Crude Oil?Technical Momentum Weakens Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting down to the 50-day moving average at $80.72. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining into oversold territories, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range firms to $1.97 daily. API Inventories Rise API Inventory tightness has reversed recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a build of 4.9 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 453 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 469 million barrels for this period. Cushing stocks in the Mid-West show 32 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 42 million barrels. An Expanding Economic Tailwind The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Phil_Blue_Line
Technical Forecast... Crude OilWith FOMC looming today and NFC I don't see any reason for the Weekly SSL to be taken out and price to at least stab into the Daily FVG. I will be looking out for meaning full moves into these price points during NY session today. London may offer a little chance to create some false idea we have done it but usually the move is fake and revisited. 80.50 is my weekly objective as it has been from late last week. So my trade idea's will evolve around price post retracement and then heading down.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
CRUDE OIL (FUTURES): 1 MAY, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M The broader context indicates that wave (ii)-purple appears to have just ended, and wave (iii)-purple is being initiated to push lower. In the short term, wave (iii)-purple seems to be opening up to push lower. Wave i-blue is currently in progress, and surpassing the level of 82.14 would indicate the onset of wave ii-blue, preparing for the subsequent wave iii-blue to push lower. Invalidation point: 84.46
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by ShaneHua
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello, My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside. At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go. The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines. Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY. - R2F
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Road_2_Funded
2
Crude Oil ForecastSo I was looking at Crude on the weekend and I couldn't determine a clear direction for Monday. Now Monday Is almost over and we Have disrespected the Mean threshold of the Daily +OB I do expect price to be bearish and heading down towards the Daily FVG. An Good indicator on the Daily we have respected the WEEKLY ifvg CE. These things are very important to watch. Before 0930est I will post intra day targets that I suspect will be Draw On Liquidity. Bring on Tuesday!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader