Long trade We saw an opportunity comparing it with the volume to be able to make a profit and leave the market positively.Long10:29by ecastillo24920
#CRUDEOIL UPDATE 📆 3rd NOVEMBER Resistance: 6900, 7080 Support: 6750 Moving towards support 6750 BMI suggests that prices are fluctuating due to the conflict-related supply risks and concerns about a slowing global economy impacting demand. There's ongoing worry that Iranian oil output could face sanctions, potentially reducing supply in an already tight market.Shortby Shalvisharma59
Oil, where are you headed? This week our eyes fall on the crude oil market. From our previous article, Cracking the Crack Spread , we know that crude oil and gasoline hold a special relationship. Since gasoline is extracted from crude oil, the spread between the two futures should not diverge too much. Yet, in the past few weeks, we have observed a deviation in their prices with the Crude Oil/Gasoline ratio peaking. Futures Fundamentals Open interest refers to the number of open contracts in the market. It serves as a measure of liquidity, activity and more importantly, interest in the security. While trading volume refers to the number of contracts traded each day. The decline in both prices and open interests indicates the liquidation of long positions. Together with a low trading volume, this can indicate a bear market. Economic Outlook Although the federal reserve (Fed) is likely done with its hikes in this hiking cycle, it intends to keep interest rates higher for longer. Coupled with continued tightness in the labor market, sticky inflation and inflating cost of debt, growth would be dampened. One way to back up this view is to look at the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The PMI is widely used as a leading indicator to anticipate changing economic trends. Furthermore, there tends to be a positive association with PMI and commodities year-on-year change. Given the latest PMI value, it points to a negative economic outlook, with year-on-year crude oil prices playing catch up. It is good to be mindful that if the Fed has indeed concluded its hiking cycle, there is a greater likelihood for the dollar to weaken rather than strengthen. As crude oil is quoted in USD, a weaker dollar would lead to a more expensive contract. Therefore, there are upside risks to crude oil prices. Supply Factors US crude oil production reaches record high levels. In conjunction with other non-OPEC countries’ record production, they have been upholding the supply despite facing cuts from OPEC. This could possibly explain why oil prices fell on Oct 4th when OPEC confirmed its cuts until the end of the year. However, we also see the number of oil rigs in the US on a decline, which may hinder any higher levels of production. Also, there is the debate whether production from non-OPEC countries will be outpaced by OPEC’s cut, leading to the materialization of a supply deficit. Volatility Historically, the energy sector is known for its volatility. In comparison to the S&P 500, crude oil appears to be more volatile. In the chart above we look at the maximum year-on-year change in the S&P500 and marked that range on the year-on-year crude oil prices. Here, the wider range that crude oil trades becomes much more obvious compared to the S&P 500. This effect could likely stem from the fact that oil, unlike equities, is affected by a myriad of complex factors at any given time, from supply/demand to geopolitical, environmental and many more. Gold and crude oil tend to be positively associated. Rising oil prices place upward pressure on inflation leading to precious metals to appreciate as investors flock to “store of value” assets. Other than store of value, gold also acts as a form of safe haven asset, where investors take shelter in gold against uncertainty. With gold now trading significantly higher than oil, it appears that markets are expecting higher levels of fear and uncertainty, which could translate to higher volatility in oil. So where is oil heading? Here we find ourselves in a limbo, considering potential breakout risk from geopolitical tensions the downside risk from the likely turnover of the economy, a fading PMI pointing to oil weakness, and overextended oil prices when looking at the spread complex with gasoline. In times like this, when risk could extend on either side, a long straddle options position could allow us to harness profits in the event of a volatile move, in either direction. To express our view, we can set up long straddle position by buying one at-the-money call and put option that expire in Feb 2024. Given the last price of CLZ3 is 82, we will purchase the two options at the strike price of 81.50. The premiums for the call and put options are 5.39 and 4.89 points respectively. In total, our premium would be 10.28 points. As a rough gauge of the potential for profitability, it might help to look at the volatility in oil prices. For the selected strike, ignoring the effects of options Greeks, the price on expiration would have to move roughly 12.7% in either direction. In the chart above, the bottom figure shows the rolling 3-month change in oil prices, with the red band marking the 12.7% higher & lower range. Here we see oil continually swinging past this level, highlighting the potential for this strategy to play out. In this setup, it should also be noted that the maximum loss on the position is the premium paid on the initial setup, which is 10.43 points. The breakeven levels are above 92 or below 71 on option expiration day, as seen in the chart above. Each 0.01 point move in crude oil options is for 10 USD. CME also has a handy strategy simulator allowing you to construct the option strategy and simulate future prices on your position's P&L. Above are two potential scenarios if the price of crude oil remains close to flat on expiration day, or if it trades lower on expiration day, alongside a diagram showing the effect on the option position's P&L. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.comby inspiranteUpdated 9
Crude Oil Forming Flag and Pole PatternCrude Oil Forming Flag and Pole Pattern 15Mins TF, If Crude oil Breaks and sustain the level of 6910 then possibly we can see 6951 and 7042 Levels..Longby narangsantosh870
DAILY FIRST STOP My first is all day We will continue observing to see if we find another opportunity and thus take advantage and make a profit in case we take another Stop we will think to see if we will have a third opportunity.Short06:07by ecastillo24921
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;) Longby sepehrqanbari5
Crude Oil Box BreakoutCrude Oil Box Breakout, Crude oil is heading to 6851 Levels, sustaining above this Crude Oil Might Touch 6871 & 6927 Levels..Longby narangsantosh876
#CRUDEOIL UPDATE 📆 2nd NOVEMBERResistance: 6807, 6900, 7080 Support: 6750 CRUDE cost remains uncertain and depends on a variety of factors. 👉In the context provided, factors such as technical influences, Federal Reserve decisions, geopolitical tensions, and demand uncertainties all play a role. In short, we are waiting for one positive news that could lead to a hike in the price.Longby Shalvisharma57
SHORT SELLING ON MCLAfter two stops, we decided to take a third short entry so that I could take a profit and be left with a profit of 1.8% of the account value. This week has not started the way we like, but let's go.Short02:19by ecastillo24921
Crude Oil First Target Achieved Crude Oil First Target Achieved As per Cup and Handle Pattern, you can check my previous post..Longby narangsantosh872
Crude Oil Forming Cup and Handle Crude Oil Forming Cup and Handle at 15 mins Time Frame, Breakout Level is 6810 if it Sustained above this level then it might touch 6851 and 6880 Levels Longby narangsantosh870
OIL H&S CONFIRMEDCrude Oil has been forming a Head & Shoulders pattern and it has now been confirmed! I can see oil heading to the $70 area. Simple and Clean Analysis! Happy Trading!! ⚔️ Follow my account for more posts :)Shortby ray3spinoza224
Micro Crude Short4hr chart is down 1 hour chart is down supply zone on 15 min chart is inside of the 4 hour TrendCloud This is worth a 1% risk on your stop loss for a 2:1 target. Shortby thechrisjuliano0
#XTIUSD Trading The Double CorrectionIn this update we review the recent price action in the Crude Oil futures and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS00:57by Tickmill4
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;) by sepehrqanbari3
WTI wave analysis fundamental still bullish in war situation so we bias to buy In my view new 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C cycle is happening wave 1 is leading diagonal (this is very clear) by Elliot wave rule wave 2 cannot go down below wave 1 So we use this rule to set our set set up with 2 RR If wave count wave right price should not go below wave 1Longby tofinse1
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)by sepehrqanbari4
#CRUDEOIL UPDATE 📆 30th October Rising oil prices, driven by Israel's actions, raised concerns about global oil supply. Ongoing uncertainties persist concerning geopolitics and future interest rates, influencing market recovery. WHERE RESISTANCE PLACED AT - 6030 Buying is only recommended if the crude sustained above - 7050 Selling below - 6984 by Shalvisharma57
OIL to GOLD monitorRatio of the price oil in gold moves in ranges, and its extremalities lead to significant changes of trend. May be gold have common value not linket to any obligations, gold have stable value whereas dollar may be devalued or reflatedby Vitaliy_Lebedev6
BULLISH ACCUMULATIONprice retracing above supply. now has the strength to go higher making a wyckoff smc pattern. Longby junjuntadle21
CL downhello friend, from my analysis i see the market will keep moving down, so i put this idea to share it with you ! NYMEX:CL1! Shortby Omar0khascnadar00
Descending flag patternFrom daily chart its currently show descending flag pattern and want for breakout trendline. I personally product the prize is going breakout again.it may begin for next few day. Longby NaimSaat220
Opening Range Breakout on Crude4 hour chart is in a downtrend. The candles are red. 1 hour chart is in a downtrend. Candles are red. CCI is below -200 Look for the first supply zone on the 5 minute chart that breaks structure. Enter trade at the bottom of the wick that formed the supply zone. 7 minute video with step by step instructions. Short07:19by thechrisjuliano1