C1 Analysis of fibonacci now we're in a bounce of 423.6(I need to run his account with a 30% stake.)
CJ1! trade ideas
Cocoa on all-important round level - retesting just nowI opened a position on Cocoa. 5year and 15year stacked seasonality favour long right now. Not significantly, but they do. This being said, it is an excellent outlook from a technical perspective. The price slows down as it approaches supsistence tested throughout the years from both sides. It has even worked recently. That time, it was resistance, now I hope it will act as support.
►It slows down as it approaches an important level
The important level is strong. Not only that it was tested multiple times but it is also a round number which are more often than not the ones that host the most fights between bulls and bears.
►The level is tested multiple times and is also a round number of 2400
And then, there is already once broken anchored VWAP from above. The one from bottom worked just weeks ago.
►Stacked seasonality 5y and 15y support long to a certain degree
►VWAP from the top is losing respect
◄The only contrarian point is 200 simple average which holds strong. But the price is approaching and bounces are getting smaller. Accumulation below this level usually signifies imminent breakout.
EW Analysis: COCOA May Remain SidewaysCOCOA is sideways for the last 10 years and seems like it will stay like that.
Hello traders!
Today we will talk about Cocoa and its price action from Elliott Wave perspective.
Well, looking at the longer-term weekly chart, we can see Cocoa moving sideways for the last 10 years in the 3700 – 1700 range, ideally within a bigger bearish triangle pattern in wave »B« before we may see even more weakness into a wave C towards 1000 level. But, it is not ready yet, because sub-wave (E) is still missing, so we will probably see a recovery at the end of the year or in 2021 before a bigger sell-off.
As you can see, in the shorter-term daily chart, we are currently tracking a three-wave A-B-C decline within wave (D) that can send the price down to the lower triangle line and 2000 – 1800 area. The only question is, either is sub-wave B already finished or will we see a retest of 2500 – 2700 resistance area before a decline into wave C to complete a higher degree wave (D).
All being said, be aware of more weakness for Cocoa this year, but downside can be limited, so at the end of 2020 or at the beginning of 2021 we may see another, bigger recovery for the final wave (E).
Trade well!
Matured correction over the peak?After a strong downward pressure, there is a matured correction movement in a rising green channel. This moving from 20th of May is absolutely complete and correction type. So I forecast that the next movement will be down, the channel will be broken down, and cocoa could reach 2000.
$CC_F COCOA weekly rejects 200MA, 50MA, 13MACocoa has been up since March, and this week it tried to break out of three MAs(13, 50, 200) and failed.
In the ST, it is not bullish.
But when you look at the COT positions, Money Managers are net short(long 42%, short 58%).
This is constructive.
It could retest Lower TL again, or go straight up.
