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Crude Oil Futures (Mar 2019)Crude Oil Futures (Mar 2019)Crude Oil Futures (Mar 2019)

Crude Oil Futures (Mar 2019)

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CLH2019 trade ideas

RISING WEDGE PATTERN IN CRUDEOILCrude Oil (MCX) 1HR Chart Analysis 🔹 Expected Price Movement: Price is forming a rising wedge pattern, indicating a potential short-term upmove before a breakdown. 🔹 Bullish Push First: Expecting price to test the 6343 - 6380 zone before showing weakness. A temporary breakout could occur before reversal. 🔹 Bearish Breakdown Target: If the price fails to hold, a breakdown below 6306 could trigger a drop toward 6260, confirming the wedge breakdown. 🔹 EMA & Volume Analysis: The 55 EMA (6287) acts as dynamic support, but declining momentum and volume suggest a possible exhaustion near resistance. 🔹 Risk Management: Traders should monitor price action near resistance and use stop-loss protection to manage volatility. 📌 Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on provided data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. ❤️ If this analysis helps, please like the post! 🚀
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5
6
WTI crude bulls eye $74Crude oil prices fell over 11% from the January high before support was found at the 200-day SMA and 50% retracement level on Friday. Trump's latest tariffs saw commodities rise on inflationary concerns, and that allowed WTI futures to post a daily gain of 1.6% - its best day since the January high. The 1-hour chart shows an impulsive move with no immediate threat of a top forming, and it seems plausible that the market is now reaching for $74 as part of a counter trend move, near the monthly pivot point and weekly R2. However, as Monday's trading volume was the lowest of the year, it shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm. So unless we see volumes rising alongside prices, I am to assume the current bounce is simply a correction against the drop from the January high. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
2
Markets Seeing Mixed ResultsMarkets were seeing mixed results today with US Equity prices slightly lower along with Crude Oil and Gold. Traders saw CPI come in better than expected while the Crude Inventories report came in higher than expected. The Crude Market specifically has had a volatile beginning to 2025 with a lot of the recent price action hovering around the 200-day moving average. The initial jump in prices to the recent January 15th high came after breaking through the 200-day moving average and the volatility around that level has come back this week. Crude Oil has several fundamental factors that can affect the price drastically, including global tensions and supply and demand, which is why the CME offers different sized products for Crude Oil to help traders manage their risk ranging from the full size to the micro contract. For the rest of the week, traders will be looking at the jobless claims number along with the PPI for an indication on inflation moving forward. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CLH2025
by CME_Group
Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Crude Eyes Bullish Reversal - Descending Trendline🚨 Crude Oil (MCX) 4 HOUR Chart Analysis 🚨 🔹 Bullish Indicators Identified: Breakout from a descending trendline, signaling potential trend reversal. Price reclaiming the 55 EMA (6211) as a key resistance level. 🔹 Expanding Demand Zone: The breakout structure suggests a shift in market sentiment, increasing the probability of bullish continuation. 🔹 Target Levels: Watching for price movement towards the 6310 zone (Bearish OB). T1 - 6250 T2 - 6300 T3 - 6350 🔹 Breakout Confirmation: A strong move above 6180 - 6200 will validate the bullish breakout. 🔹 Risk Management: Ensure proper stop-loss placement to manage risk effectively. 📈 Stay alert for confirmation & volume surge! 🚀 🔹 Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on available data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk; past performance is not indicative of future results. ❤️ If this helps, please like the post!
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5
1
Recap: CL and ES Weekly Plan analysis & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! CME_MINI:ES1! In this trading trading view blog we will refer to our February 3, 2025, weekly trading plans. Our main idea for ES futures was to get long above yearly open, also our key LIS (Line in Sand). And our main idea for CL futures was to stay short below February monthly open targeting mcVAL and then waiting for an opportunity to get long at our key bullish support zone. Below we explain our thoughts behind these ideas and how we choose our key levels and the process to create our plan. ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro Uncertainty : From our ES trade plan, scenario 1 played out. The line in sand for long trades was Key LIS/Yearly open. Click on the link above to see how this played out! Our key levels for the trade idea noted in the blog were: (mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25 Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25 (mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25 (CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924 mcVAH held as an area of initial resistance. Our neutral zone at 6,068.25 - 6,051.50 acted as a zone for pullback after initial push higher. The remaining week was choppy with some days more volatile and playing out per our scenario 1 in our trading plan. CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid Volatility: From our CL trade plan, scenario 1 also played out. Why we favored this as scenario 1 was due to rejection confirmed at January 2025 mid range. The provided a good short opportunity below Jan 2025 mid or February monthly open towards our key levels as specified in the trading plan. We mentioned the following key levels in last week’s plan. Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025: 76.00 January 2025 mid- range: 74.96 February Monthly Open: 74.14 Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025: 71.82 Yearly Open: 70.52 2024 Mid- Range: 70.40 mCVAL provided a good target for short trades, while Yearly open and 2024 Mid-range confluence at our key bull support provided a good spot to initiate the long trade idea. Following a consistent process can help traders stick to a trading approach that can help them achieve consistency. Losses are an inherent part of trading, executing the trade plan also involves weighing which scenario will play out on the hard right edge in real- time. However, our market analysis blogs are aimed to educate traders, showing whatever their methodology or approach, consistency in preparation and having a roadmap of important price levels will help them distinguish between getting caught in noise versus important areas to engage with markets.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
CL1!: Buy ideaOn CL1 we would have a high probability of having an upward trend given the configuration on the chart. Indeed, we are in a bearish channel situation with a succession of numerous red candles accompanied by numerous red volumes. To enter a position, you must wait until the resistance line and the vwap indicator are broken forcefully by a large green candle and followed by a large green volume. Therefore, you can enter a position as soon as the second green candle appears.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by PAZINI19
CRUDE OIL - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.2-7.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 10th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), likely completing the 1st phase. The extreme forecast on February 3 worked as a reversal from the combined resistance of the MA20 and the large triangle boundary, which I mentioned in my last post. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle isn’t over yet, but it is very mature. ⚠️ Note that the pivot forecast on January 17 marked a triple top with the extreme forecasts of July 1 and April 12 (Retrograde Mercury). This is a very strong resistance level. I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 11.
NYMEX:CL1!
by irinawest
CL1! BUYING the Dip Price is currently testing a support level that aligns with previous swing lows, offering a favorable entry point with a defined risk. Traders should consider entering long positions near this support area, targeting the next key resistance zones while managing risk with tight stop-loss levels just below the recent support. The overall market sentiment remains positive, supported by global supply-demand factors, making this a favorable environment for further upside movement in MCL1!
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by trader9224
Crude Oil daily time frame - potential Ascending Channel Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) – Daily Chart Analysis (Feb 11, 2025) 📉 Market Structure: Crude oil is trading within a broad ascending channel, with higher lows forming near $68 and resistance near $80-$82. Price recently bounced from a key support zone around $70-$72, indicating demand in this area. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: Support: $70-$72 (previous resistance turned support) Resistance: $78-$80 (previous strong rejection area) Major Resistance: $82+ (upper trendline of the channel) 📊 Potential Scenarios: Bullish Case: If price holds above $72, a continuation to $78-$80 is likely. Breaking $80 could lead to a test of the upper channel at $82-$85. Bearish Case: A break below $70 could invalidate the bullish momentum, pushing price towards the lower trendline near $68-$66. 📌 Conclusion: Oil is in a consolidation phase, respecting key levels. Bulls need a breakout above $78-$80 for further upside, while bears would target a breakdown below $70. 🚀🔥
NYMEX:CL1!
by Forexbeats
Weekly Market Forecast: CRUDE OIL Can Go Lower!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th. OIL is still trending to the downside, and sells are still valid. Until we see a bullish market break of market structure, sells all day. CPI Data news on Wednesday, so be careful trading into news day. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!
by RT_Money
Analyzing Our Crude Oil Trade Plan & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! This is our first blog recapping the trade plan from the prior week. In this blog, traders can take a sneak peek into why we choose and plot the levels we do on our charts. However, these are simply our thoughts and ideas on the market—we do not know what will happen. You should carefully consider whether this approach aligns with your own trading strategy and risk tolerance before making any decisions. Do you struggle with analysis paralysis in your trading? Don’t worry—we will help you develop a process that you can customize and apply to your own market approach. Markets by nature have randomness and uncertainty built in. Markets move based on the collective psyche of the participants. These footprints left behind by the collective participants analyzed through volume profiling and multiple time frames is what provides us with our selected support and resistance zones. To help you better understand our chart setup, here’s how we define key zones and indicators: On our charts, we use color-coded zones to highlight key market levels: Green zones indicate bull support areas. Red zones represent bearish support areas. Blue zones act as neutral zones but serve as important inflection points. The Line in the Sand (LIS) is a crucial reference point: A single LIS can be used to validate both long and short trade ideas. Alternatively, there may be separate LIS levels—one confirming long trades above it and another confirming short trades below it. Some other terms that you will commonly find in our blogs are: VPOC (Volume Point of Control): The price level with the highest traded volume within a given volume profile. VAH (Value Area High): The upper boundary of the value area, typically representing the +1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. VAL (Value Area Low): The lower boundary of the value area, typically representing the -1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. Value Area: The range where approximately 70% of the total traded volume occurs, falling within one standard deviation of the distribution. Important and significant levels on our charts are marked. You can see on the crude oil chart, that we consider mid ranges of defined year, quarter, month, week as significant areas of interest and reaction by market participants. We also give importance to HVN (High Volume Nodes) and LVN (Low Volume Nodes) and how price usually reacts to these visible distributions of high and low volumes on the volume profile. Our analysis begins with four key questions that guide our market perspective and decision-making process: What has the market done? What is it trying to do? How good of a job is it doing? What is more likely to happen from here? These questions are not intended to decipher the reasons behind market movements or predict outcomes based on personal bias. Instead, they provide a structured framework using Auction Market Theory, Volume Profile, and market-generated significant levels to develop a trade plan—whether for the day or the week. This trade plan does not dictate specific trades to take; rather, it serves as a roadmap, outlining the key areas where we may want to engage with the market. To illustrate the importance of structured market analysis and preparation, let's review how our recent crude oil trade plans have played out: Week of January 27, 2025 – Crude Oil Plan Recap : The initial trade plan played out, but a pullback occurred. Buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the Blue zone (also the LIS for longs and shorts). Long positions were only valid after confirming a reclaim of the January 2025 mid-range. Crude oil then moved sharply toward our key bull support zone before rebounding higher. This completed the trade plan scenario outlined in red. Week of January 13, 2025 – Key Takeaways : We identified the start of bullish momentum in crude oil following a long Q4 2024 consolidation. Two short trade scenarios were outlined, with the first playing out as expected. Reviewing past trade plans helps traders develop a structured market preparation process. This analysis was featured in the Editor’s Pick, mapping out key levels and our thought process. As we mentioned earlier, we do not have a crystal ball but we do have insights when planning for the week. If you are incorporating this weekly plan, please also monitor and be ready to adjust with new information that is provided on the hard right edge. If you click the play button on most of our trade plans and just consider that week’s price movement, you may notice that our plans have thoughts and efforts put in them.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1! The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components: Ichimoku Indicator Components: 1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average) • Short-term trend indicator. • A sharp slope suggests strong momentum. 2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average) • Medium-term trend indicator. • Acts as a support/resistance level. 3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead) • Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud). • A rising Span A suggests an uptrend. 4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead) • The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud). • When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red). 5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind) • Confirms trend direction. • If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum. Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku 1. Kumo Breakout Strategy • Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud). • Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo. 2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy • Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen. • Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen. 3. Chikou Span Confirmation • Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action. • Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action. 4. Kumo Twist • When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal. • When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal. 5. Trend Confirmation • Price above the cloud = bullish trend. • Price inside the cloud = consolidation. • Price below the cloud = bearish trend. Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy ✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance). ✅ Works well in trending markets. ✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals. Limitations ❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets. ❌ Can be complex for beginners. ❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD). Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by makerup
CL1! BULLISH intraday forcast The outlook for CL (Crude Oil) in intraday trading is somewhat mixed, with a few bullish factors and technical indicators to consider. Recent analysis shows that while technical signals point to a bearish trend in the short term, there are elements suggesting potential price support. For instance, the strength of the crude crack spread has risen to a 5¾-month high, which could indicate positive momentum for crude prices. Additionally, the U.S. GDP growth is showing positive signs, potentially leading to an increase in oil demand. This economic growth could push prices higher, especially if the market responds favorably to these fundamentals. However, technical indicators, including moving averages, suggest a "Sell" position at the moment. Therefore, traders should monitor market developments closely, weighing both the technical signals and broader economic factors when considering intraday trading strategies for CL.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by trader9224
Support around 73.25 is the key Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (CL1! 1D chart) The point to watch is whether it can rise above 73.25-74.62. Since the M-Signal indicator and MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicators on the 1W chart are passing around 73.25, it is expected to be the first resistance zone for the rise. The M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart is passing around 74.62, so it is expected to be the second resistance zone. - If it receives resistance and falls, 1st: 70.64-71.0 2nd: 68.18-68.94 You should check whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above. - (30m chart) Resistance: M-Signal indicator of 1D, 1W chart Support: 5EMA+StErr indicator of 1D chart (71.78) - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:CL1!
by readCrypto