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2024-10-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Gigantic bear gap with Globex open and market closed 370 ticks down or a bit more than 5%. 1h 20ema is resistance until clearly broken. Bulls are in a world of hurt here. 66.5 is the next lower target before we go for 65. Bulls need anything above 68 again. comment: Market has now went from doing 18% upwards, going down 14% and leaving two bear gaps open. The October low is at 65.74, which will likely be hit over the next 1-2 days and if it does not hold, we will test 64 again. Bulls need to break above the 1h 20ema and then 69. I don’t think they can get much higher than that tomorrow or I’d be surprised big time. Huge difference between bulls and bears on the daily chart, is that bear bars have big tails below and market is still going down hard. Bull bars close on their highs but bulls are getting slaughtered. Could be bulls who bought the 1st of October spike, scaling in and they probably have their stops either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. Either case, it will be interesting to see the market reaction if we drop below those prices. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Couple of ways to try to draw the bear trend line with the lows of the past 3 weeks but all are ugly. Bulls who buy this are probably scaling into positions and their stops are either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. If they can keep the market above 65 and quickly trade back above 69, there is a chance the lows can hold and that we have printed a higher low but those odds are bad after a -5% day. Best they can probably get is sideways movement between 66 and 69. Invalidation is below 65.74. bear case: Bears only got the market 80 ticks lower than the Globex spike, which is confirmation of this sell off. Their lower targets are the October low 65.74 and then the September low 63.46. We have an ugly bear channel with almost all bear bars having big tails below them, which shows buying pressure but bears are still selling this down hard. Which is a bit unusual I think. After such a strong bear day, follow through is expected and until bulls have clearly broken above 68 again, that price was decent to short today. For tomorrow I want to see if we have formed a tighter channel than the big one visible on the daily chart and if market is respecting an ema (currently the 1h held). I would not short below 67 but rather on pullbacks. Invalidation is above 69. short term: Max bearish. Can’t remember when I have last seen a 200+ tick futures gap that stayed open. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling around the EU open was ok once we broke below 68.3.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil Smoked Again. Will the downtrend continue?Hey, guys. Noticed this evening Crude Oil is down yet again. In this video, taking a look at the technicals and whether this downtrend will continue or not. Oil is in a little bit of a confusing spot, but there is certainly good reason to think the weakness will continue. Hope this video will give you a closer look at the Oil chart and provide helpful information as you develop your thesis around this asset. Will the downtrend continue? Will we get a counter trend move? It will be interesting to watch this develop to be sure! NYMEX:CL1! Hope you enjoy the video, and best of luck out there!
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NYMEX:CL1!Short
by redykhouse
4
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Dead zone 70 - 72. Best not to trade it and wait for the breakout. I have no opinion on who wins it. For me to believe the bullish breakout to be good, I need to see follow through selling above 73, otherwise it could still be just a retest of the previous support. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. comment: Bulls actually managed to hold it above 68 and the trend line but failed to close the bear gap completely. This leaves us in nowhere land between 70-72 and a proper triangle. Play that until it’s clearly broken. No more deeper analysis needed. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 72.7 for a chance of retesting north of 75. Below 68 things get really spicy. Invalidation is below 68. bear case: Bears need a daily close below the bull trend lines (also head & shoulders neckline) for lower prices. First would be below 69 and second is below 68. If they manage that, market is free to test down to 66 and then 64. If the neckline breaks, measured move would be 59ish but that is very far fetched. Invalidation is above 72.7. outlook last week: short term : Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. → Last Sunday we traded 68.69 and now we are at 71.78. Decent outlook. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted bear gap
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WEEKLY FORECAST OCT 26th: SELL US & UK CRUDE OIL In this video, we will analyze the CRUDE OIL markets in the US and UK, looking through the lens of ICT Concepts. Price has traded up into a bearish FVG, so therefore I am BEARISH. Price can turn neutral in this geopolitical environment, but maybe the inside bar will act as a harbinger of bearish things to come. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by RT_Money
2
Directional bias for trade filtering on lower TF , or 70 win % Hi there! I’m excited to share a system I’ve developed called 'Zones.' These zones offer a directional bias, helping predict where price is likely to move next with a current follow-through rate of 70%. In other words, if the price exits one of the orange zones, there’s a 70% chance it will reach the next orange zone, at least touching the boundary, rather than reversing back and closing within the previous zone. You can trade these zones directly for a 70% win rate, or use them as a directional bias to complement your existing strategy on a 1-minute or 5-minute chart (which I highly recommend). Important note: When the price briefly exits a zone but doesn’t close outside it, this is not considered a valid exit — we call this a "spike" or wick. For the 70% win rate to apply, the price must close outside the zone. These zones are the result of years of research, experimental machine learning development, and collaboration with colleagues who have decades of experience in physics. And the best part? I’m offering them completely free. The real challenge isn’t just following a system with a 70% win rate — it’s whether you can overcome your own psychology and avoid sabotaging your success. If you had a winning strategy, what’s really stopping you from being consistently profitable? Often, the answer is ourselves. My zones are built on theoretical thermodynamics and mathematical proofs that help predict the likely trajectory of a system, similar to particle movement in physics. Keep in mind, the orange zone line represents an unpredictable area — while the price often touches the line, there are instances where it may not reach it. Due to the inherent limitations of modern physics, this zone remains an unsolvable area, adding a layer of uncertainty to the system. I promise, none of the paid indicators, whether it’s LuxAlgo or anything from a Pine Wizard or trading “guru,” can match the accuracy of these zones. But don’t take my word for it — try them for yourself and see the results! Happy trading!
NYMEX:CL1!
by user2839409
2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bull surprise and the actual breakout above both the daily 20ema and the bear trend line. Bear gap to 72.6 is not yet closed but with good follow through tomorrow they could get it. I do think longs are much better here than shorts and we could finally disappoint bears again. Could retest the bear trend line tomorrow, that means that a deep pullback to 69.7 or 70 is possible. There I would look for longs again. comment: Bullish breakout and my major trend reversal theory was good. Bulls now should not let this drop below 69.5 again. We could see a retest of ~70 again before we go higher. I will only look for longs on this tomorrow and anything below 70.5 is a decent trade. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Targets for the bulls are now 72.6 to close the bear gap and above that is 75. No more words needed for this. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears need to get this below 69.5 again to continue the trading range or otherwise we see a bigger move upwards to the given targets. Have we already seen the giving up from the bears today? If we stay above 70.5, then it’s likely so. If they get it below 69.5 again, next target is 69.26 where I expect most bull stops to be and that would be a very important price for both sides. If bears print 69.5, a continuation of the trading range 68 - 70.5 is most likely. Invalidation is above 72.3. short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 69.5. Neutral below. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Will do a swing long on a pullback tomorrow. trade of the day: Long since bar 6 or the double bottom around 69.3.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-10-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Trading range 68 - 70.6 continues. Neutral as it gets in between. Don’t over analyse this range. comment : Bulls fighting for 70 and there is a chance this today was a lower low major trend reversal and we go up from here. Validation is only a daily close above 71, so don’t be early like me last week. Continuation of the trading range is a bit more likely than a bullish breakout. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Bulls want to keep 70 support and break above the bear channel now. They still need to break the bear trend line and above the daily 20ema. Given the current chart, you simply can not hold longs above 70 for now. Invalidation is below 67.7. bear case: Bears keeping this at the lows is good for them. They could still try to get a third leg down to retest the September low 63.46 but right now that is as unlikely as bulls breaking above 71. I do think one side will give up this week and we see a bigger move. Do not trade on hopes of an event which could sent oil prices higher. That is not a trading strategy, that is gambling. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 68.6 since it was previous support and close enough to the bull trend line to expect it to hold. Was good for 150+ ticks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls nowhere to be found. We are near the minor bull trend line starting from the September low below 64 and it is more likely that this trend line holds and we do not go below the October low 65.74. Can you long this based on that assumption? I would not. Wait for bigger buying pressure and break of the bear trend line currently around 70.4. Can you sell this? On a pullback yes, but not below 70. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher. comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: No more bullish thoughts from me for now. Only an event can save the bulls. Monday they had another chance and they blew it on Tuesday. Now market has formed a big bear wedge but the hope that this will break to the upside is slim. Bull trend line at 68 has to hold or bulls will give up until 65. Invalidation is below 68 bear case: Bears won last week big time. Now they want to run all the stops below 65 and retest 63.46. Problem with their case is the bull trend line and the bear wedge. We are trading at the lows and above the bull trend line, which is a bad spot for new shorts. Any short around the daily 20ema near 71 is probably a decent trade. Invalidation is above 72. outlook last week: short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think. → Last Sunday we traded 75.56 and now we are at 68.69. That outlook was garbage. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bullish pattern, added bear gap and bear wedge.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds