20240822 CLV20241) Did I follow my plan?
A) Entry
B) Exit
2) What mistakes did I make?
3) What could I have done better?
4) What rules will help me with the above?
MMMicro WTI Crude Oil Futures
71.45USDD
−0.32−0.45%
As of today at 00:12 GMT
USD
No trades
MCL1! trade ideas
TI-BRNeutral/Slight long Reg
LONG TI SHORT BRENT
TI WILL GO UP BRENT DOWN TO NARROW THE SPREAD
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Crude oil approaches bullish reversal zoneWeak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same outcome again.
WTI has fallen heavily over the past week, apparently on hopes for a peace deal in Gaza. That may be reason, and I hope it happens from a humanitarian perspective, but I’ve been around long enough to know narratives are often designed to fit with the prevailing price action. All I know is that the last two occasions WTI has dipped to $72.50 per barrel it’s coincided with a near-term bottom. Sitting at $73.11, the price is not far away again.
I would be reluctant to buy preemptively, but should the price bounce from $72.50, it would make for a decent long setup, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the February low of $71.44 for protection. Minor levels at $74.60 and $76.94 are two potential targets, $80.30 another considering how much work the price did either side earlier in the year.
DS
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bear channel continued down and next target is probably 72 if 73.5 won’t hold. Pure weakness in this market.
quote from my weekly update:
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 74.5 to trade back down to 71/72.
comment: Look at that beauty of a channel. Holding like a true champ. Market is much weaker than expected and only going down. Bottom of the channel is where a pullback is expected and if bears are strong, they keep it below 74.5. Next targets for the bears are 73 and then 72. Anything above 75.5 would be a big surprise.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 72 - 75.5
bull case: Bulls are so weak that they currently can only correct sideways. They need to create a pullback at 73.4 or risk a breakout below the bear channel, where the selling would accelerate. A reasonable target for a pullback would be the breakout retest of last weeks low 74.52.
Invalidation is below 73.1.
bear case: Bears had a strong bear day again and a measured move would bring us to 71.5. If they manage to create a breakout below the bear channel, we could get there much faster than most expect. My drawn big bullish trend line from the triangle runs through 71.7, so close enough. Bears need to keep any pullback below 75, better would be below 74.5.
Invalidation is above 75.5.
short term: Pullback to at least 74.5 is expected but below 73.1 we print 72 or even 71 pretty fast.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Mostly sideways during Globex and EU session. US session opened weak and when bulls could not get above 75.5 again, bears tried again and bulls just gave up. Had to be short since the bear bar breaking below 75 and the 1h 20ema.
Oil Price Eyes Test of Monthly LowThe price of oil may attempt to test the monthly low ($71.67) as it extends the decline from the previous week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Failure to hold above the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region raises the scope for a move towards $71.50 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) with a breach below the January low ($69.28) opening up the December low ($67.71).
At the same time, crude may trade within in yearly range should it defend the February low ($71.41) with a move back above $76.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the $78.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $79.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) area on the radar.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Crudeoil Weekly Update Technical Analysis: Crude Oil (1 - DAY Timeframe)
In the 1-day timeframe, we're currently observing a developing cup and handle pattern.
Should the price sustain below the demand zone, the probability of further downside increases, signaling potential bearish momentum?
Conversely, if a reversal occurs, there is a strong likelihood of a significant upside movement, with a possible 400+ point advance.
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Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on current data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Crude oil can hit 9000 mark again in coming 3-4 monthThe recent assassination of a Hamas leader by Israel and Iran's promise of retaliation could escalate tensions into a broader conflict in the Middle East. This situation raises concerns that Iran might block the strategic Strait of Hormuz , a critical chokepoint for global oil trade . Additionally, there are speculations that Iran could test a nuclear device in the coming months, potentially declaring itself a nuclear state. Russia's continuous supply of S-300 and S-400 missile systems to Iran further suggests that something significant may be in the works. These developments could have profound implications for oil markets and global stability.
OIL (WTI) SHORTThe price action formed an inverted cup and handle pattern, were price is currently in a parallel channel that acts as the handle. A breakout under the lower support will lead to the $71.90 area support, then another breakout of that support will lead to the $70.89 or so area.
The price is also in a current death cross, the 8 daily EMA under the 21 daily EMA.
A breakout over the orange ray would invalidate this idea.
Oil slips again and Geopolitical tensions rise In my last post about Oil, I said that "Oil has a good possibility to get back to the range of 83.50 and 84.50", but also "Oil had broken 3 LH's that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024". I also mentioned that "we can see a pullback in the ranges of 78.84 and 77.12". In my outlook at the top of the week, I said that I was on the buyer's side until price showed otherwise. Now, price is showing signs of not continuing buys but settling into seller's territory.
In this latest out look, I'm going to give you my insight on where the market can possibly go going into next week. Around early 6AM, price broke the HL from last Friday that shot Oil up all the way to the 77.89 area on this past Monday. On Tuesday, price created the "M" formation signaling that sellers were now starting to step in that sent the market selling for the rest of the week. On today Friday, August 16th, Price hit a demand area that sent price shooting past the HL that i stated early in my typing. This could potentially mean that we are now in seller's territory for a minute depending on how the markets may move going into next week. We did leave a gap above after yesterday's sell movement that can send price back that way from Monday going into Tuesday depending on market conditions. I believe if price goes back that way it can be just to create a LH, IF price doesn't make buying structure. Right now my current outlook is bias until the market finds its footing from Monday-Tuesday.
Amid Oil selling from the technical side, Oil is facing rocky streets from fear of the United States economy as investors are getting ready to brace for interest rate cuts and other things going on in different countries. From Fed Powell, to Iran retaliation, and to China's weak economy, Oil is in some unpredictable territory especially with a lot of geopolitical tensions rising. Next week news combined with technicals will give a greater outlook on Oil.
CRUDEOIL INTRADAY SETUP Aug 16Crude Oil (1-Hour Timeframe)
Recent Breakout: Crude oil has broken out from a falling wedge pattern, signaling potential for further upside if price sustains above the breakout level.
Outlook: Monitor for signs of retracement or consolidation.
Strike Price Trade Setup:
Entry: Above 6,550
Targets: 6,570, 6,600, 6,630
Stop-Loss: Must have
Remember to adjust your stop-loss and take-profit levels according to your individual risk tolerance.
WTI: Knock, knock…WTI recently rejected the lower edge of the turquoise Target Zone between $79.67 and $85.86. We expect a further advance into this range before the high of turquoise wave B can be established. The price should then turn around and sell off with the last leg of the green wave (2) into our same-colored Target Zone between $49.85 and $27.93.
CRUDEOIL Bullish setup | Aug 14 Technical Analysis: Crude Oil
Timeframe: 1 hour
Current Situation: Oil prices have increased due to lower US inventories and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, concerns about weak Chinese demand and potential US interest rate hikes are keeping the market cautious.
Price Action: Crude oil remains range-bound, moving within a rising wedge pattern on the 1-hour timeframe.
Key Levels:
Strong Support: 6,640
Resistance/Target: Expecting a 100-point move, targeting yesterday’s high.
Invalidation Level: Bullish outlook invalidated below 6,610.
Outlook: Watch for a break above 6,640 to confirm bullish momentum and achieve the expected target.
2024-08-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bears showed signs of life, rejecting 80 with decent selling. Still an inside bar to Monday and bulls bought it at the bull trend line. Below 78 bears start hoping again, but it’s more reasonable to expect more upside. At the very least a retest of 80 and if bears are strong, they try to keep that resistance.
comment: Expected pullback by the bears and bulls bought the bull trend line. Everything in order so far, retest of 80 is expected. If bulls are strong, we will break above for 81 or 82. Below 77.6 bears could get hopeful and again but I doubt it. Daily ema is at 77.2, so that would be their first target.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 77 - 82
bull case: Bulls tried twice at 80.15 and then mostly stepped aside after bears increased the selling pressure on bar 37/38. They bought the bull trend line and want a retest of 80 from here. If they fail to keep it above the bull trend line and 77.6, they risk that 80 was a lower high and bears might try to sell down to 72 again. Since Monday was so strong, more upside is the higher probability outcome over the next days.
Invalidation is below 78.6.
bear case: Bears generated decent selling pressure and retest the bull trend line. I don’t think they want to fight hard for 79 and will try to keep it below 80 again. If they would manage to break below the bull trend line, their next target would be the daily ema at 77.2.
Invalidation is above 79.
short term: Bullish above 78.8 for retest of 80. Bearish below 77.6 for more downside.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Sell below bar 37. Can take most off at the double bottom bar 50 + 54 and exit runner once the market reached the bull trend line and refused to trade below it.
OILUSD/H4 WTI oil fluctuates in the stable range of $70 - $80.OILUSD forecast on August 13, 2024:
WTI oil is under pressure from the war and DXY is decreasing. Currently, the oil price has risen from the $71 region back to the $80 area. It is likely that oil will experience a correction before continuing its upward trend. The trading trend today is BUY.
Key levels to watch are: 76.5, 78, 80, and 82.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY OILUSD zone 76-76.5
SL 75.5
TP 78 - 80 - 81.
Plan 2: BUY OILUSD zone 77.60 - 78.10
SL 77.20
TP 79 - 80 - 81.
Plan 3: SELL OILUSD zone 83.30 - 83.50
SL 83.80
TP 82 - 81 - 78.
