CL1! shorts Idea Marketing is respecting a daily Gap that should push price lower. On the 1 hour it created a displacement to the lower side, would like to see that displacement respected and pushes prices lower.
TCS1! trade ideas
HTF Daily Range EQ Level $71.75, Should we start to look SHORT?NYMEX:CL1!
"Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos
Lets pay very close attn. to CRUDE OIL . As price is nearing HTF Daily Consolidation EQ Level $71.75 Per Barrel. We have to pay very close attn. to the ORDER FLOW Footprint to make sure we are in favor. I'm not 100% SHORT from the EQ Level $71.75 due to we have a Un-Mitigated Daily Supply Zone above. As I mentioned before we'll watch the O/F FP to make our best call for entry. I'll keep post as PA develops.
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
Crude Oil Eating Up Time - Plate almost emptyPrice bounced many times at the Green Support-Zone. It's the same level where the Huge Pendulums Fork Center-Line is (white-dashed).
Next, we have the Yellow Fork.
Price traded outside the L-MLH, bounced a couple times at the Support-Zone and eat up time.
But now, I think the "Plate" is almost empty.
Why? Price arrived at a decision point, a confluence point. This confluence point is where the Warning-Line and Price intersect.
To me, a Long Trade is more likely than a Short.
- world wide tensions
- so many bounces at the Support-Zone, they won't let price go down much
- price has not re-tested the L-MLH of the Yellow Pitchfork
As this is a very long term play, it's obvious that this Chart/Idea would serve to build a position, rather than using it as a simple trade.
Trading Plan: WTI Crude OilBased on my proprietary indicators, I maintain a bearish view on WTI Crude Oil. I am anticipating a downside target of ₹5800 (target open until 15th January 2025).
Current Position:
Holding short positions in MCX Crude Oil January 2025 expiry futures from ₹6025 levels.
Intend to add more shorts if prices move to higher levels.
Risk Management:
Stop-loss and risk parameters are carefully planned but not disclosed here for strategic reasons.
Position sizing is aligned with my overall risk appetite and trading capital.
Disclaimer:
This trading plan represents my personal views and trading decisions and is shared for informational purposes only.
Trading in crude oil futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
Readers should not consider this as financial advice and must conduct their own research or consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Past performance of proprietary indicators is not indicative of future results.
Crude Oil Price Set for a Pullback - Consider Short Positions Ne Key Insights: Crude Oil prices have been under pressure recently due to
oversupply concerns amid a slowdown in global demand. Geopolitical tensions,
particularly in major oil-producing regions, are also creating uncertainty.
Current market sentiment tends to lean bearish as economic indicators
suggest weakening growth, especially in key markets like China. Traders
should be cautious for potential further declines in price as recent
patterns indicate a possible reversal.
- Price Targets: For short positions, I suggest targeting the following: T1 =
66.50, T2 = 64.00 with stop levels at S1 = 71.50 and S2 = 72.00. This setup
reflects a bearish outlook, allowing for a strategic entry while providing
ample risk management.
- Recent Performance: Crude Oil has experienced a notable decline, with prices
falling from recent highs. The current price around 70.65 reflects a
significant support level being tested. A continuing downtrend emerged after
a brief period of consolidation, suggesting further downside potential.
- Expert Analysis: Experts generally believe that Crude Oil faces substantial
headwinds. Analysts cite that rising inventories and a lack of significant
OPEC+ intervention may exacerbate downward pressure. Market sentiment is
largely bearish, with traders expecting more volatility as economic data
releases unfold.
- News Impact: Recent reports indicate increased production from the U.S. shale
sector is contributing to the oversupply scenario. Additionally, investor
sentiment has been affected by mixed signals from central banks regarding
interest rates, which could impact economic growth and consequently oil
demand. Keep an eye on upcoming economic reports and geopolitical
developments as they may influence short-term movements in the market.
Supply Glut to Weigh Down on WTI Crude Prices in 2025Outlook for crude oil prices in 2025 is a complex interplay of various factors. China’s fiscal & monetary policies, Trump’s energy agenda, OPEC+ strategies, and geopolitical developments will collectively sway oil prices.
For now, the outlook for 2025 remains bearish. Analysts expect persistent oversupply, driven by rising non-OPEC+ production. Demand growth will remain tepid.
T RUMP’S PRO-OIL STANCE TO DRIVE PRICES LOWER
Trump’s pro-oil stance is expected to pressure oil prices by increasing US energy production in an already oversupplied market.
In his victory speech, Trump vowed to halve energy costs by maximizing domestic US production, calling its reserves “liquid gold.” His plans include expanding drilling on federal lands, easing lease access, and fast-tracking energy infrastructure.
In 2023, federal lands accounted for 26% of US oil output. Exploration & production slowed under the Biden administration due to reduced lease sales, higher royalties, and bond requirements.
Source: Visual Capitalist & U.S. Department of the Interior – Bureau of Land Management
During Trump’s first term, federal land lease issuances averaged 1.62 million acres annually compared to 138k acres under Biden, marking a whopping 91% drop.
Trump’s first term saw US oil output rise by a record 3 million bpd, the largest increase under any administration. A second Trump term and a “Drill, Baby, Drill” mantra is expected to boost oil production.
US producers require an average oil price of USD 64 a barrel for profitable drilling as per the Dallas Fed Energy Survey . However, reduced regulation, streamlined approvals, tax incentives, & potential reversals of Biden-era policies could lower production costs & encourage more drilling.
TRUMP’S TRADE & GEOPOLITICAL POLICIES TO WEIGH DOWN ON OIL PRICES
Escalating trade friction risks remain high, as Trump’s tariffs warnings on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China have fuelled uncertainty in global trade. Retaliatory measures, like those seen during 2018, could resurface. Rising supply and shrinking demand will press prices lower.
For example, Chinese buyers shunned US crude due to tariff risks, widening the WTI-Brent discount from USD 3/b to over USD 11/b. However, with China’s share of US crude exports dropping from 25% in early 2018 to 7% in June 2024, spread divergence will be less pronounced.
Source: ING Research
Trump promises to swiftly end the Ukraine-Russia war and reduce tensions in the Middle East. For now, the specifics remain unclear.
Success in easing geopolitical risks will significantly reduce the oil market’s “war-risk” premium, potentially driving prices even lower.
Conversely, Trump’s staunch support for Israel and a hawkish stance on Iran may exacerbate tensions in the Middle East. In his first term, he re-imposed sanctions in 2018 that led to a sharp drop in Iranian oil exports. Under Biden, these sanctions remained but were loosely enforced, allowing Iran to boost output to 3.4m bpd from 2.5m bpd in early 2023.
Trump’s return could bring stricter enforcement against Iran, potentially removing 1m bpd from the market. However, with most Iranian exports now directed to China, disrupting these flows may prove challenging. ING analysts expect Iranian supply to stabilize at 3.3m bpd through 2025.
OPEC+ REMAINS WARY OF TRUMP’S SECOND TERM
OPEC+ in its latest meeting delayed the phased return of 2.2m bpd of supply from January to April and extended some cuts through 2026. While these measures are expected to slightly narrow the surplus production in 2025, continued output growth from non-OPEC+ will weigh on prices.
US oil production has surged by 11% between 2022 and 2024 to 21.6m bpd, eroding OPEC+ market share to its record low of 48% in 2024 from 55% in 2016 when the group was formed. OPEC+ fears a further rise in US output under Trump, which could diminish its ability to sustain prices.
The extended cuts of OPEC+ in 2025 risk further declines in its market share. Prolonged low prices will shrink OPEC+ producers' oil revenues and increase the risk of disagreements within the cartel. Disagreements will result in OPEC members supplying more crude in breach of their production cuts.
CHINA SHIFTING AWAY FROM CRUDE WITH WIDESPREAD EV & LNG TRUCK ADOPTION
Deflationary pressures, persistent property market crisis and a rapid shift to EVs & LNG trucks are dampening crude demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer. It has been the key driver of global demand growth for two decades.
According to China National Petroleum Corporation’s Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI), Chinese oil demand is projected to peak at 770 million tonnes in 2025. This is driven by growing adoption of EV, LNG trucks, and high-speed rail.
Sluggish oil demand in China has led the EIA, IEA, and OPEC to lower their global oil demand forecasts several times. In December, OPEC revised its 2024 forecast downward for the fifth consecutive time.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Rising non-OPEC+ production & tepid demand are expected to amplify an oversupplied oil market in 2025, putting downward pressure on prices. Donald Trump’s energy policies are likely to exacerbate this imbalance further widening the gap between supply and demand.
Portfolio Managers and Traders can express this bearish view using CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures offer the same exposure to crude oil price movements as standard WTI futures, but at 1/10th the contract size, making them a more accessible and flexible option for traders, enabling more granular hedging.
This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in March 2025 (MCLH2025) with the following trade setup:
• Entry: 70.50/barrel
• Target: 65.70/barrel
• Stop: 72.00/barrel
• P&L at Target (per lot): +480 ((70.50 – 65.70) x 100)
• P&L at Stop (per lot): -150 ((70.50 – 72.00) x 100)
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.2x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Probably the most boring outlook to write. Oil has been in a triangle since 2023-09 and we will see a bigger breakout in 2025. To which side? Absolutely no idea. Oil has been stuck inside a 10% range for the past 10 weeks and it’s almost not possible that the range contracts further. We have nested triangles and the biggest of those can play out a couple of more weeks. It’s always possible that the pattern fails and market could just continue sideways for longer. Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I do not have an opinion on where this could break out. Market is in total balance around 69. I will continue to take this market level by level and play the given range. Since neither side has any arguments for their case, I won’t write a bull/bear case for this. If you don’t like trading ranges, just don’t trade this.
current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple time frames)
key levels for 2025: 65 - 75
short term: I won’t make up stuff. Market is as neutral as it gets. Clear support 66/67 and clear resistance 70.5 / 72.3
medium-long term: Nope to the nopedy nope. Go follow some macro schmackro dude who tells the world Oil will go to 100$ again because of *insert hypothetical macro event*.
current swing trade: None
Strategy & New Group Trading ConceptHanging out chatting about next year's trade desk business goals. I'm a firm believer that a good trader is just as valuable as the assets that they trade. Learning how to simplify trading is the first step to building a reliable strategy. There are a few areas of fund management that are hidden from everyday traders because it does not apply to non-financial professionals.
For starters I've got this idea to start the 'seaside connection' .
I've met many different types of traders. Some of which have profitable strategies, copiers, and some who gamble.
What if we found a balance? I have a track for all of these people. The goal is to add more value to your time on the desk. so if your trading 100 - 100,000 does not make a difference.
Strats (protected) can be copied without requesting private proprietary information about what & how it works. Purely focused on results.
Non-Strats (Train & Trade): Learn how to apply my strategy to markets. Literally, you focus on your market timing, force, and fundamentals.
Gamblers: Learn how to protect your punting with risk to reward strategies that reduce your risk or blow up your account in style lol. Just kidding, but you should know that the majority of traders are not trading, they are gambling.
I'm not here to turn atheist into believers, but soon enough, the markets will.
Investors: You look down on us traders at times. This is okay, because without us you have no one to blame when your 3 month outlook shifts.
You need us, because we provide you with near term returns.
Our strategies will be packaged in PAMM / MAMM funds for you to take advantage of as a hedge to that longterm underlying position you've got working since last year!
CRUDEOIL - Symmetrical triangle breakout on the horizonCrude Oil Update (4-Hour Timeframe)
Chart Overview:
Crude Oil is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with both lower highs and higher lows converging, signaling potential for a breakout soon.
The price has rejected the upper trendline (around 5895) multiple times, highlighting it as a critical resistance level.
EMA Analysis: The price is hovering near the 55 EMA (5836), indicating indecision. A close above this EMA could push the price higher.
Trading Plan:
Entry Long: Above 5900
Target 1 - 6002
Target 2 - 6138
Entry Short: Below 5744
Target 1 - 5450
Target 2 - 5500
Risk Management: Maintain a stop-loss below the triangle's lower boundary for long positions and above the upper boundary for short positions.
Disclaimer: This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risks effectively.
CRUDEOIL MASSIVE BREAKOUT Chart Analysis
The chart shows a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup. The price has successfully broken out of the wedge pattern and is now testing the breakout zone near 5960, indicating potential further upside.
Additionally:
The 55 EMA is acting as dynamic support and is currently positioned at 5935
Buying Levels:
Entry: 5960 (breakout confirmation)
Support: 5935 (for tight stop-loss setups)
Accumulation Zone: 5920 (for a risk-reward play)
Selling Levels:
Profit Booking Target: 6020
Extended Target: 6050 (if momentum persists)
Stop Loss: 5920 (below the demand zone)
Key Notes
Watch for volume confirmation to validate the breakout.
Keep an eye on broader market trends for crude oil, as global sentiment can significantly impact intraday movements.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Conduct your own analysis before entering trades.
MCL1! A nice liquidity for a 28 W/L ratioWe are out of value but we have rejected from a resistance. A nice confluence of support is easily seen below.
1. VWAP
2. 618 Fibonacci
3. 4H OPEN/CLOSE
Expecting the trade to happen at an interval of few days.
Sadly can't hold them positions open logn enough,
Anyways, Nice setup to keep in mind!
Bullish momentum to the key levelpossible setup that might occur, there's a high chance that buyers will it to the key level but to be on the safe side it's best to take profits on the Resistance, as the price broke out and retested the Higher high giving us a chance to enter on the start of the Impulsive move, use M15 for confirmation
CL_LONG_+991 TicksThe CL daily time frame has created an up
channel. The market has hit the bottom of the
channel and is showing signs of pushing bullish
towards the top of the channel. The market
has created an up Fibonacci with an extension
price point 78.92 about +991 ticks above the
market. The market has broke and closed above
a counter trend line bullish and showing sings
of wanting to push toward the Fibonacci
extension.
Entry: Counter trend line break bullish above
the bottom of the channel.
STOP: 64.60
LIMIT: 78.92.
This is part of the long idea of the CL 01-25.
The market has rolled into the next contract
CL 02-25, so we are updating this idea.
WTI breakout coming ? WTI has had a relatively range-bound year. Thinking back to what I said at the beginning of the year, that was what I predicted. I have drawn the vertical lines to show this year's range, and for me, this indicates a sell-the-rally mode that traders have adopted. You can see the triangle that has been forming over the past few years will break out soon. I prefer the downside break but just in case the opposite happens I have drawn the boxes of support and resistance I have observed. I have shown the chart for the 2008-2024 period because it gives a great perspective.
