Crudeoil is BEARISH if Breakdown 5980Short MCX Crude oil on BREAKDOWN of 5980 Stoploss 6020 Target 5810
QMU2028 trade ideas
Crude Oil || BREAKOUT FROM TRIANGLE PATTERN Chart Analysis: Crude Oil (1-Hour Timeframe)
Pattern: A symmetrical triangle pattern is forming, signaling potential consolidation before a breakout.
The price is approaching the apex of the triangle, indicating that a breakout could occur soon.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 5,821 (Fibonacci 0.236 level).
Resistance: At 5,927 (Fibonacci 0.618 level) and 6,034 (Fibonacci 1.0 level).
The 55 EMA (5,874) is acting as dynamic resistance.
Long Trade (Bullish Breakout):
Entry: Above 5,895 (triangle breakout)
Target 1: 5,927
Target 2: 6,034
Stop Loss: 5% - 10%
Short Trade (Bearish Breakdown):
Entry: Below 5,821 (triangle breakdown).
Target: 5,750
Stop Loss: Above 5,862
Crude Range for 27/11/2024Resistance 5845
Support 5810
Any side BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN will decide its further movement for the day.
CMP is 5835
US OilUS Oil - Crude Oil
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " AB " Corrective Waves
Break of Structure and Retracement
Change of Characteristics
Demand Zone
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL) Short Term May See More DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 10.8.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 10.8.2024 high, wave 1 ended at 66.72. Wave 2 rally ended at 72.89 as the 1 hour chart below shows. It has then turned lower again in wave 3. Down from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 70.94 and wave (ii) bounce ended at 71.64. Wave (iii) lower ended at 66.94 and wave (iv) rally ended at 69.39. Final wave (v) lower ended at 66.61 which completed wave ((i)). Oil then rallied in wave ((ii)) with internal subdivision of a zigzag.
Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 70.15 and wave (b) ended at 68.75. Wave (c) higher ended at 71.51 which completed wave ((ii)). Oil has turned lower and structure of the decline looks impulsive. Down from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 70.4 and wave ii ended at 71.24. Wave iii lower ended at 68.57. Expect wave iv to end soon and then it should turn lower in wave v to complete wave (i). Afterwards, expect oil to rally in wave (ii) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 72.89 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for more downside.
Crude Oil - High Tide Pt.2Pt 1 found here .
This is an extremely critical market at this time. What must be understood, is NYMEX light crude oil is not its' own independent market, but rather a BENCHMARK for a larger market for crude oil globally, and its' derivatives. Consider a Kenyan bank, that owns a loan on a Kenyan gas station. What is the best instrument to hedge their investment? Well, obviously the answer is NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX gasoline futures. The sovereign bond of gasoline prices so to speak.
Examining the market technically, we see that it appears bullish. The market experienced a severe panic in price during 2020, as demand and logistics collapsed in face of a global epidemic. However the price has recovered considerably, due to OPEC controls and the global necessity for this commodity. In fact, the market has even retested attempts made at reaching its 2008 high.
Many local market do not have access to global markets as might be expected, such as the NYSE and CME to conduct their day-to-day affairs. This highlights the importance of NYMEX:CL1! globally, not only for the physical delivery of light crude in the United States. But the global marketplace for light crude oil and its' derivatives, such as plastic containers, heating oil and cosmetic products. The reference price for such items by suppliers, is naturally the most liquid benchmark available to them. Which is to say, they will sell their product based on the most available market for their ingredients. A notion common in all business, to be examined at a global level to understand the relevance of this market into the future. This market exists in the United States, which is what underpins the importance of the US Dollar as this principle applies to all commodity and equity benchmarks. Furthermore, the principle of liquidity remains relevant all through history, where commodities as long as trade exists have been priced according to the most liquid benchmark.
The relevance of the US Dollar can most clearly be observed in global bond markets. As capital becomes scarce as Quantitative Easing globally comes to an end, and begins to flow towards the USA, creating the rally in $TVC:DXY. Rates in sovereign debt markets in the US and abroad have risen, and prices have fallen. A lack of demand in sovereign debt outside the USA is being realized, as FRED:RRPONTTLD RRP usage has risen since the beginning of the war between Ukraine and Russia. Because the USA is also the global benchmark for interest rates, due to its deep liquidity. Banks all around the globe balance and hedge their local debt based on this proxy market. For all intents and purposes, this is the only game in town.
It may seem odd that the price of crude oil in US Dollars has risen, given that the value of the US Dollar has risen significantly worldwide. Inflation domestically might dictate that the price of NYMEX:CL1! should fall, but this has not been the case. There is something beneath the surface, that indicates a deep value in this trade yet to be realised. Despite governments and activist organisations fighting against the product, its relevance in commerce has not diminished. Coupled with the importance of this global benchmark, the whole of oil-based product globally appears as important as ever. The market indicated last week the potential for a turning point, as it has capitulated. Traders should consider the market will likely make another low, but appears to be setting up for a rally.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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Crude Oil Buy opportunityLight Crude Oil Futures Analysis – NYMEX (CL)
Crude Oil Futures (CL) are presenting a compelling buying opportunity as the price consolidates within a symmetrical triangle, suggesting an imminent breakout. This technical setup often leads to significant upward momentum when the price breaks through the upper resistance. With the current support around $66.18 holding strong, there is a favorable risk-reward ratio for traders looking to enter a bullish position.
Technical Indicators Signal Potential Upside:
Support Zone: The lower boundary at $66.18 has consistently provided a solid foundation, indicating strong buying interest at this level.
Bullish Momentum: A breakout above the $71.30 resistance could confirm a bullish reversal, with targets around $74-$75 in the near term.
This setup offers an attractive buying opportunity with minimal downside risk, especially if CL can break through key resistance levels. Given current market dynamics and technical indicators, a bullish outlook appears favorable for the upcoming sessions.
Light Crude Oil Futures, NYMEX, bullish setup, buying opportunity, support, resistance, breakout, technical analysis, price action.
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MCL Short 11/22/2024MCL is in an uptrend in 4hr chart. Price is having hard time breaking the TL. But it broke the high volume DZ that has confluence with the 4hr 21 EMA. The drop from the SZ is more than twice of the zone width. Risk= $250. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
CL Daily time frame has an up Fibonacci: +1,127 ticksThe CL daily time frame is in a sideways range.
The market is near the bottom of the range
showing signs up pushing bullish towards the top
of the range. There is an up Fibonacci with an
extension near the top of the range price point
80.00 about +1,127 ticks above the market. It
will be a good idea to turn to the one one hour
time frame and look for long ideas in the buy zone.
Gas futures at 6-month highs, will oil follow?Oil futures NYMEX:CL1! are forming a weekly reversal pattern at support levels
Gas futures NYMEX:NG1! already made the same pattern and rebounded strongly and is now making 6-month highs
The US energy sector AMEX:XLE is already discounting that a rebound in oil will happen, as it is near all time highs
Crude oilcrude oil testing support too many times, and a lot of liquidity resting to the downside. this will be the end of correction both price and time-wide. Expecting some action in middle-east which may lead to low oil prices.
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#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral until bulls do more. 66.72 is still the low to be broken if bears want more downside, otherwise it’s a descending triangle with clear support around 67. It does look like bulls need an event to help them. Every small rip is sold and it’s a matter of time until one side gives up and we see another breakout. Last thing I want to be is bullish on this but until we have a daily close below 67, it’s huge support.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls.
comment: Huge support around 67 and bears need a daily close below for lower prices. Bulls a daily close above 69 for 70 and potentially 70.4. No more magic to it and I won’t make stuff up for the fun of it. Market has no direction for weeks and the range is tighter than my food exit. As long as market does not drop below 66.72, bulls are ok but it’s really tough to make money as a bull in this. If bears break that price, we go 65 next, followed by 63.5.
current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle)
key levels: 67 - 71
bull case: At this point I am too lazy to come up with something for either side. I follow the range and past pattern. Last week was bearish and support held. Next week I expect trading above 69-71. I stop being lazy once the given range breaks. Maybe long range missiles onto Russian Oil depots will help this break out.
Invalidation is below 66.7.
bear case: Either break below 66.7 or give up again. Below 66.7 we see 65.74 and then 65 next.
Invalidation is above 69.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks.
→ Last Sunday we traded 70.38 and now we are at 67.02. Bad outlook but will probably touch 70 tomorrow or Tuesday again. Probably was just off due to Sunday-Sunday.
short term: Neutral.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing worth mentioning.
The current outlook for crude oil appears mixed but leans slightThe current outlook for crude oil appears mixed but leans slightly bullish due to the following factors:
Inventory Trends: While there was a smaller-than-expected build in crude oil inventories (+500,000 barrels), it contrasts with larger builds from previous weeks. Additionally, gasoline inventories rose, but middle distillate inventories only slightly declined, signaling some supply-demand balancing.
Geopolitical Risks: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine add a potential "war premium" to prices, but the market reaction has been muted compared to previous years, suggesting limited immediate impact.
Chinese Demand: Signs of improving demand from China—a major oil consumer—provide support for a bullish sentiment as global demand stabilizes.
IEA Forecast: The International Energy Agency now suggests tighter-than-expected supply, revising its Q4 inventory decline estimate from 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to over 1.1 million bpd. This implies a more constrained market moving forward.
However, bearish risks stem from:
Perceptions of a generally well-supplied market, potentially capping upside momentum.
Reduced war-related price shocks compared to prior years.
Conclusion for Traders:
Crude oil shows bullish potential, especially if demand signals from China strengthen or inventory draws accelerate. Short-term volatility remains, but opportunities might exist for buying dips rather than shorting, particularly as geopolitical risks and seasonal demand factors play out.
ILL CONSIDER SCALING IN EVEN MORE AT EACH GREEN LINE. COT report suggests some bullish momentum for this week
Shorted Crude OIL this Morning for 100pts / +3R MutltipleNYMEX:MCL1!
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Brief Breakdown into this Mornings NY Session and the SHORT we took on Crude OIL that ran for 100pts in our FAVOR resulting in a +3R Multiple Return.... Shalom+
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Day 1 , strategy 1. Learn how to use the adaptive ema indicator Day 1 , strategy 1. Learn how to use the adaptive ema indicator.
Number of entries showed.
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important - you can trade without options too.
Crude oil signs of basing emergeWTI Crude Oil closed higher overnight at $69.17 (3.21%) on news that production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield had been halted due to a power outage.
An escalation in European Geopolitical tensions also supported the rally after the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia.
A bullish engulfing candle has formed overnight from just ahead of key support $66.00/$65.00 area, which suggests further upside towards $71.50/72.50 is likely in the sessions ahead.
2024-11-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - I talked about the previous low 66.72 extensively and today bears dipped below but bulls bought it with vengeance. We are on our way to 70 and a test of the bear trend line from the October high. I do expect the lows to be in and we go higher from here. Best for bulls would be to make 68 support and keep the market above, below I am probably wrong and we chop more at the lows.
comment : If bulls get follow through to 70 tomorrow, bulls are in control again until they fail at the bear trend line (breakout above is possible). I do think the low 66.27 can hold. Right now it’s unclear if bulls are as strong as today looks because it’s only an expanding triangle over the past 5 trading days and bulls could not close today above the daily 20ema which is 20 points above us. So it’s possible that the descending triangle continues for more days before we get a breakout. Not much interest in selling this though. Will continue to long against 67.
current market cycle : trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 66 - 70
bull case: Bulls need follow through and test 70 tomorrow. A close above it would turn the market always in long and bulls in full control then. The bear trend line is the next target to break but until that happens, 70 is likely resistance and we go more sideways.
Invalidation is below 66.27
bear case: Bears want to keep the trading range at the lows going since they are making new lows. Selling above 69 has been profitable for the past week and until that changes and bulls trap bears, we can expect bears to keep trying.
Invalidation is above 71.
short term: Neutral but looking for longs when it’s clear that bulls can keep the 1h ema support. Will otherwise wait for market to come down to 67/67.5 and scale into longs. No interest in selling.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying the liquidity grap down to 66.27. The price action there on the very low tf was really interesting. Basically bears just left. Two more quick retries but only made higher lows and then a giant give up bar by the bears for 123 ticks on the 1h tf.
MCL Short 11/18/2024MCL is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placed a short position in SZ that coincides with 4hr 21EMA (purple line). Taking half risk in this confluence SZ because zone is close by daily DZ (blue box), daily and 4hr trend don't match (no macro match) and the SZ is low volume. Target= 1:1 and 3:1. I'm already in the trade.
