CL, Mar 21, 2025Looking for a long opportunity if NYMEX:CL1! displaces through the March 18th equal high and retraces back to it.
Targetting monthly open and Weekly Avg Expansion Level.
QMG2028 trade ideas
CrudeOil Breakout or Reversal?📈 CRUDEOIL – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
CrudeOil is currently testing a key resistance zone near 5995–6000. Price action has respected the rising trendline, and the structure looks poised for a breakout or rejection move.
🔍 Two Possible Scenarios:
🔹 Bullish Breakout Above 5995 If crude sustains above 5995 with volume confirmation, we may see a sharp move toward:
🎯 Target 1: 6030
🎯 Target 2: 6065
🔹 Bearish Rejection Failure to break 5995 may trigger a rejection and lead to a correction toward:
📉 Support 1: 5931 (EMA)
📉 Support 2: 5870 (Trendline base)
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5995 / 6030 / 6065
Support: 5931 / 5870
Volume will be the key factor in validating the breakout. Until then, keep a watchful eye for a trap or fake-out near resistance.
📌 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always manage your risk and trade with proper position sizing. Market sentiment can change quickly.
Crude Oil Technical Outlook Crude Oil has once again found support near the $65 area, initiating a modest rebound. This bounce may extend toward the $72 level, which I view as a potential area of interest for initiating a short position.
Should price action reach that zone, I would look to enter short with a defined target range between $50 and $42. In this scenario, the stop loss would be fixed at $80.60, preserving a clear and disciplined risk management structure.
I’ll be closely monitoring price behavior and momentum as we approach resistance, particularly looking for signs of exhaustion around $72 to validate the setup.
WTI Crude Oil Trade Plan: DOE Release NYMEX:CL1!
In this tradingview blog, we go over our technical setup and trade idea for Crude oil.
It is important to note we also have DOE inventory numbers coming at 10:30 ET.
Once the release has settled in, the trade idea can be framed using either of our two scenarios.
Scenario 1: Liquidity Trap
Rejection above March Monthly Open or Yearly Open and prices mean revert towards March mcVAH and CVPOC confluence. The idea considers the trend from last Wednesday. Late breakout buyers get trapped. Higher time frame participants push prices lower.
An example swing trade idea would be taking a long position once the release has settled and waiting for a pull back around 69.50.
• Entry: 69.50
• Stop: 70.30
• Target: 68.15
• Risk: 80 ticks
• Reward: 135 ticks
• Risk/Reward ratio: 1.69
This is an example swing trade idea that may play out by the end of the week.
Scenario 2: Shift back into 70 - 75 range distribution.
Immediate resistance is at March monthly open and yearly open. Above it the path clears towards Q1 mid-range and 2025 mCVPOC.
An example of a trade idea for this scenario is to wait for a breakout and close of candle on the 30 minutes time frame above yearly open. Wait for a pullback towards 70.28
• Entry: 70.35
• Stop: 69.50
• Target 71.45
• Risk: 85 ticks
• Reward: 110 ticks
• Risk/Reward ratio: 1.29
Please note that these are example trade ideas. Trades are advised to do their own preparation. Stops are not guaranteed to trigger, and losses may be greater than predetermined stops.
Crude oil-----sell near 69.00, target 67.00-66.00Crude oil market analysis:
Recently, crude oil has been hovering at the bottom. There are short-term stabilization signals, but it is basically difficult to turn around if you don't buy at 70.00. Today's idea is still bearish. Crude oil is sold regardless of weekly or short-term. Today's idea is still to sell at a high price and bearish. Crude oil pays attention to the inventory data later.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil-----sell near 69.00, target 67.00-66.00
Crude Oil Market Insights: A Bullish Perspective on Price MovemeThe crude oil market continues to demonstrate resilience, with recent price action revealing intriguing patterns that warrant close attention from investors and traders. At the current juncture, crude oil has successfully found critical support at the $66 level, a development that aligns precisely with earlier market expectations.
Current Market Dynamics
Traders and market analysts are observing an emerging rally targeting long-term resistance levels. Interestingly, the early 2024 market upswing serves as a compelling analog for current price movements, providing a historical context for understanding potential future trajectories.
Market Movement Characteristics
The current market momentum presents a nuanced picture:
Continued upward movement is evident
Trading volume shows interesting characteristics
Price action indicates a slightly less volatile impulse compared to previous trends
What’s particularly noteworthy is how the market is maintaining its upward trajectory. Despite potential concerns about increased supply, the market has demonstrated remarkable stability. The current rally appears to be developing with a different volatility profile compared to previous market phases.
Supply and Demand Considerations
The prevailing market narrative around demand is progressively validating earlier predictions. Traders are speculating about the potential for an even stronger rally in the near term. While significant volatility might not be anticipated at current levels, the market remains dynamic and responsive.
Comparative Market Analysis
When examining the current market phase against historical patterns, several key observations emerge:
Volatility in the current market area differs substantially from previous periods
Price movements are showing measured, calculated progression
Supply increases are being absorbed without significant market disruption
Forward-Looking Perspective
Market participants should prepare for potential continued movement, albeit with a more measured approach. The expectation is not for explosive, high-volatility reactions, but rather a more controlled and strategic market progression.
Conclusion
Crude oil markets continue to provide fascinating insights for investors and traders. The current support level, emerging rally, and measured market dynamics suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Key Takeaways
Crude oil finding strong support at $66
Potential for a measured rally
Reduced volatility compared to previous market phases
Continuing positive momentum in market trends
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
Crude Oil Set for Mixed Outcomes Amidst Economic Tensions
- Key Insights: The crude oil market is experiencing mixed signals, with recent
positive momentum but an overarching bearish sentiment. Despite the slight
uptick, the market remains sensitive to economic and geopolitical factors,
suggesting cautious trading strategies. Investors should monitor key support
and resistance levels closely to inform trading decisions.
- Price Targets: Next week, traders might consider these targets:
- T1: $70.50, T2: $72.00
- S1: $66.50, S2: $65.00
This positioning aligns with the anticipation of potential upward movement while
guarding against lower breaks.
- Recent Performance: Crude oil has recently closed above key moving averages,
hinting at possible short-term gains. However, the broader market is
bearish, influenced by decreasing oil and gasoline prices, which may reduce
overall economic costs. The market's volatility is driven by broader
economic conditions and geopolitical influences.
- Expert Analysis: Opinions in the oil market are divided, with some experts
foreseeing bearish trends due to supply constraints and production capacity
issues. Others remain bullish in the long term, expecting economic
conditions like stagflation and inflation to drive demand and prices higher.
The imminent strengthening of the US dollar and its impact on linked indices
remains an area of attention.
- News Impact: Several notable events are influencing crude oil. Concerns about
sustaining production levels amidst declining rates and constrained spare
capacity highlight the critical need for investment in new projects.
Geopolitical tensions involving key global players are impacting supply
chains and pricing, potentially escalating inflationary pressures. Within
the sector, shifting production strategies and shareholder expectations may
redefine performance prospects in the near term.
Overall, while the short-term outlook might see some gains, traders should
remain cautious and informed, given the complex interplay of economic and
geopolitical factors affecting crude oil.
Crude oil-----buy around 69.00, target 69.90-70.90Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has not been so strong for a long time. The K-line has uploaded the daily moving average, and the bulls have begun to rush up. The current suppression position is 70.00-70.60. Yesterday, the highest peak was 70.22. Today's idea is to follow the short-term buying, buy at a low price to see its moving average rebound, and the daily moving average is also starting to attack. We don’t speculate whether this wave of upward rush will change the trend of the daily line, but we can be sure that the short-term is bullish. Today’s idea is to buy directly around 69.00.
Fundamental analysis:
Although there is no big data this week, the US tariffs still cause huge market fluctuations in terms of fundamentals.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----buy around 69.00, target 69.90-70.90
Light Crudeoil Futures hourly trend forecast for March 24, 2025According to my analysis, this commodity is at its strong resistance at 68.46 and the likely support levels are at 67.56 and 66.83.
According to my "Advanced Market Timing" indicator, Light Crudeoil Futures is likely to see a bearish trend and then bounce back.
Those who trade are suggested to use your own technical studies for entries, stops and exits.
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.3-21.3 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 16th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). A double bottom has formed, signaling the start of the second phase. The extreme forecast on March 19 pushed crude upward from a sideways trend. However, the beginning of the second phase is very weak. A strong resistance level lies ahead at 70 on current futures.
👉 My bearish outlook remains unchanged, as outlined in my summer 2024 crude oil post. The crude market has been in a sideways trend since fall 2022. This resembles the 2010-2014 period. Timing suggests a resolution in 2025. However, this does not mean history will repeat exactly—it is simply a similar setup. We will continue to navigate based on the current extreme forecasts.
⚠️ The current base cycle cannot yet be classified as bearish, as it has not broken its starting point. Watch for the midpoint of retrograde Mercury on March 24. The next important extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and March 31.
USOIL BUY Trade Review Bias: BULLISH due to price trading inside 1hr +NWOG (new week opening gap)
Entry model: Bull unicorn model created after price tapped into 1hr +NWOG. Confirmed with a +BB (breaker block), stop hunt, displacement thru +BB w/ FVG
Left chart shows entry model targeting equal highs created during London morning session which I use as buy side liquidity which gives price an incentive to trade higher.
Crude oil ------- sell around 70.00, targeCrude oil market analysis:
Yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big positive, is it a buying opportunity? In fact, looking at the pattern, it has been hovering at this position for a long time, and the short-term is basically a snake. If the position of 70.00 is not broken, it is difficult to form a buying opportunity. The idea of crude oil today is still bearish. Continue to sell on the rebound. The previous contract delivery of crude oil has not changed the trend. I think it still needs to fluctuate.
Operation suggestion:
Crude oil ------- sell around 70.00, target 68.00-66.00
Will oil prices collapse to $60?Is there a chance for oil prices to fall to $60?
On Wednesday, WTI crude oil futures continued to rise and settled around $68.3 per barrel. This was the third consecutive day of gains amid growing concerns about supply disruptions caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The Israeli airstrike on Gaza and U.S. President Trump's threat to hold Iran accountable for any Houthi attacks in Yemen have heightened tensions in the region and contributed to the rise in oil prices.
One of the main causes of the recent price rise has been an expected increase in demand from China, the world's largest oil importer. This is due to its economic stimulus plans and positive data on the economy. However, the potential rise in prices could be held back by progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to increased supply in the global market. In addition, U.S. President Trump is expected to talk with Putin today to try to end the ongoing war between the two countries.
Another significant risk factor for oil prices is escalating trade tensions, which is worrying investors about economic growth and energy demand.
Currently, oil is not having a good time, with a 5 percent decline in quotations over the past three months. The main cause of this pressure is OPEC+'s announcement to increase production in April. In addition, markets are preparing for the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and possible retaliatory measures by China against the United States.
Concerns about a possible global trade war are affecting the energy market. Fears are that this could hurt economic growth and reduce energy demand, leading to an uncertain situation where supply from the OPEC cartel is increasing while demand remains unstable.
The news is not very positive as oil production continues to increase. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia, known as OPEC+, have decided to increase oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, a move that marks the first increase since 2022. Although this increase aims to phase out previous production cuts, it has raised concerns about a potential abundance of supply in the market.
The 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada went into effect at the same time as the 10 percent increase on Chinese goods. In response, Beijing immediately imposed taxes of up to 15% on imports of key U.S. agricultural products. The current situation leads to a widespread and dangerous trade war, which can negatively affect economic growth and the outlook on oil demand.
When studying oil, it is also essential to consider the trading currency, which is the dollar. In 2025, I predict that the dollar will continue to strengthen while the Fed keeps interest rates high. This may not be favorable for oil prices.
From a technical point of view, the situation on Oil is even worse. The decline is accompanied by above-average volumes, and prices remain consistently below the 200-period moving average.
According to my forecast, oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel in the coming quarters.
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Crude oil---sell near 68.20, target 66.00-65.20Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been hovering at the bottom recently. It is necessary to short it at the high suppression position. It is difficult to make a profit by shorting in the middle and chasing. Today's idea is to continue to short it after the rebound. Pay attention to the suppression near 68.00-68.50. Crude oil is basically difficult to change the trend in the short term. Yesterday's crude oil contract delivery was not big. The price of the new contract is basically the same as the old one.
Fundamental analysis:
The Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, which is in line with market expectations. The dot plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025. The Federal Reserve will begin to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction on April 1.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil---sell near 68.20, target 66.00-65.20
Possible upward pullbackCrude oil is on a bearish trend based on higher timeframes but is currently showing bullish pressure as a potential pullback. The potential upward pullback may try to retest the 70.0 barrier. Breaking further and settling above the 70.0, may see a rise towards resistance barriers between 71.00 and 73.00 as potential bearish sell zones.
Crude Oil Futures Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 032025Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 67/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
