Oil Chart Ready for Price ReboundWith the price being squeezed in this support area, it looks like we are ready for a price rebound in oil. I see price ceilings of $120 and $200 for oil.
QMJ2029 trade ideas
Long Next Week: Crude Oil Set for Potential Price Recovery
- Key Insights: Crude oil sees potential upward momentum with prices trading
above the 8-day moving average. Market sentiment favors short-term recovery
despite mid-level volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand
dynamics. Analysts emphasize crude oil's undervaluation and opportunities
due to supply constraints and potential oil production peaks by 2025.
- Price Targets: Next week targets aim for a recovery from the current level.
Tight stops and returns provide a trading framework.
- T1: $71
- T2: $72
- S1: $67
- S2: $66
- Recent Performance: WTI crude oil is trading around $68, with predictions
suggesting a pullback to $67 before potentially rising. Trading above its
8-day moving average suggests persisting upward momentum, pending market
movement. Market volatility exists due to fluctuating demand-supply dynamics
and geopolitical factors, with price support at $64.75 and resistance around
$70 to $73.50, indicating critical levels for potential trends.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight the undervaluation in commodities,
including crude oil, suggesting investment opportunities as the energy
sector benefits from supply constraints. Expectations exist for peak oil
production by 2025, which could lead to long-term market shortages and
volatility. Companies like Occidental Petroleum remain sensitive to price
variations, focusing on debt reduction and dividend increases.
- News Impact: Geopolitical tensions related to Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan
oil could pressure supply chains and affect price stability. The move
towards renewable energy continues to reshape long-term demand; however,
robust demand is anticipated until major shifts occur. China's crude oil
strategies will significantly impact global supply and price alignment.
Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding future price
trajectories in the crude oil market.
Crude oil-----sell near 69.00, target 67.00-66.00Crude oil market analysis:
Recently, crude oil has been hovering at the bottom. There are short-term stabilization signals, but it is basically difficult to turn around if you don't buy at 70.00. Today's idea is still bearish. Crude oil is sold regardless of weekly or short-term. Today's idea is still to sell at a high price and bearish. Crude oil pays attention to the inventory data later.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil-----sell near 69.00, target 67.00-66.00
buyers coming into the marketprice hit a higher timeframe resistence area at the end of the week, which we see lots
of selling off & a bearish engulfing candle.
price has now hit an institutional candle & is showing sighns of rejection from that area
buyers have already started to enter the market , as we can see on a lower timeframe.
i will be looking for buys at market open,
Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00Crude oil market analysis:
Yesterday's crude oil daily line showed continuous tombstones, which was suppressed near 72.00. Today's idea is to continue to look at the rebound in the short term and pay attention to the support near 68.70. This position is a buy rebound. We will wait for opportunities in the Asian session. Crude oil has begun to move on a weekly trend. We need to pay attention to this week's closing to determine whether it will start a weekly trend in the future.
Fundamental analysis:
Trump's midnight tariffs caused the market to tremble again. In addition, ADP rose sharply, with a result of 155,000 people, 80,000 people in advance, and 115,000 people expected. The bulls still pulled up under such a big negative situation.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00
Crude Oil at Decision Point — Breakout Coming or Just More Chop?Crude is nearing the apex of a descending triangle, but the conflicting signals across timeframes make this a tough read. The daily is breaking out to the upside, while the 4H is pushing lower — classic mixed market structure. Are we about to fake out in both directions before rolling over to fresh lows, or is this a genuine attempt to break higher? Honestly, both long and short setups feel like low-probability plays right now. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade.
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely no opinion on this or interest in trading, other than small scalps. Look at the weekly tf and tell me how obvious everything is, be my guest.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 65 - 72
bull case: Bulls produce decent tails below daily bars and keeping the market above the daily 20ema and 69. Right now they have taken somewhat control of the market after many weeks of selling, likely due to bears being exhausted. Only a daily close above 70 would change my assessment though. Sideways is more likely for me and I have no bigger interest in buying at 70 when it could be the high of a potential trading range 65 - 70.
Invalidation is below 65.
bear case: Bears sold the market relentlessly for 2 months straight and do seem exhausted. Right now they want to keep 70 resistance and since this is the first decent bounce the bulls got, the odds of this going much further up are low. It’s still a bear flag on the weekly tf and a retest of 65/66 is possible. Daily close below 68 would make me look for shorts for 100-200 ticks lower but that’s about it.
Invalidation is above 71.
short term: Neutral around 70. Bulls need a daily close above and bears something below 68 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed last bear trend line, market is neutral at 70.
Oil Futures short: Breakdown of descending triangleThis is the breakdown that I had discussed in my earlier idea on the same product. I had used futures this time because this is the product that most professional traders used for trading oil (and really because it's what my friend uses).
The stop is set slightly above the breakdown price.
The take profit is set at 1-1 target from the most recent peak to the breakdown.
USOIL BUY Trade Review Bias: BULLISH due to price trading inside 1hr +NWOG (new week opening gap)
Entry model: Bull unicorn model created after price tapped into 1hr +NWOG. Confirmed with a +BB (breaker block), stop hunt, displacement thru +BB w/ FVG
Left chart shows entry model targeting equal highs created during London morning session which I use as buy side liquidity which gives price an incentive to trade higher.
WTI Crude Oil Trade Plan: DOE Release NYMEX:CL1!
In this tradingview blog, we go over our technical setup and trade idea for Crude oil.
It is important to note we also have DOE inventory numbers coming at 10:30 ET.
Once the release has settled in, the trade idea can be framed using either of our two scenarios.
Scenario 1: Liquidity Trap
Rejection above March Monthly Open or Yearly Open and prices mean revert towards March mcVAH and CVPOC confluence. The idea considers the trend from last Wednesday. Late breakout buyers get trapped. Higher time frame participants push prices lower.
An example swing trade idea would be taking a long position once the release has settled and waiting for a pull back around 69.50.
• Entry: 69.50
• Stop: 70.30
• Target: 68.15
• Risk: 80 ticks
• Reward: 135 ticks
• Risk/Reward ratio: 1.69
This is an example swing trade idea that may play out by the end of the week.
Scenario 2: Shift back into 70 - 75 range distribution.
Immediate resistance is at March monthly open and yearly open. Above it the path clears towards Q1 mid-range and 2025 mCVPOC.
An example of a trade idea for this scenario is to wait for a breakout and close of candle on the 30 minutes time frame above yearly open. Wait for a pullback towards 70.28
• Entry: 70.35
• Stop: 69.50
• Target 71.45
• Risk: 85 ticks
• Reward: 110 ticks
• Risk/Reward ratio: 1.29
Please note that these are example trade ideas. Trades are advised to do their own preparation. Stops are not guaranteed to trigger, and losses may be greater than predetermined stops.
CrudeOil Breakout or Reversal?📈 CRUDEOIL – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
CrudeOil is currently testing a key resistance zone near 5995–6000. Price action has respected the rising trendline, and the structure looks poised for a breakout or rejection move.
🔍 Two Possible Scenarios:
🔹 Bullish Breakout Above 5995 If crude sustains above 5995 with volume confirmation, we may see a sharp move toward:
🎯 Target 1: 6030
🎯 Target 2: 6065
🔹 Bearish Rejection Failure to break 5995 may trigger a rejection and lead to a correction toward:
📉 Support 1: 5931 (EMA)
📉 Support 2: 5870 (Trendline base)
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5995 / 6030 / 6065
Support: 5931 / 5870
Volume will be the key factor in validating the breakout. Until then, keep a watchful eye for a trap or fake-out near resistance.
📌 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always manage your risk and trade with proper position sizing. Market sentiment can change quickly.
Crude oil-----buy around 69.00, target 69.90-70.90Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has not been so strong for a long time. The K-line has uploaded the daily moving average, and the bulls have begun to rush up. The current suppression position is 70.00-70.60. Yesterday, the highest peak was 70.22. Today's idea is to follow the short-term buying, buy at a low price to see its moving average rebound, and the daily moving average is also starting to attack. We don’t speculate whether this wave of upward rush will change the trend of the daily line, but we can be sure that the short-term is bullish. Today’s idea is to buy directly around 69.00.
Fundamental analysis:
Although there is no big data this week, the US tariffs still cause huge market fluctuations in terms of fundamentals.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----buy around 69.00, target 69.90-70.90
Crude Oil Market Insights: A Bullish Perspective on Price MovemeThe crude oil market continues to demonstrate resilience, with recent price action revealing intriguing patterns that warrant close attention from investors and traders. At the current juncture, crude oil has successfully found critical support at the $66 level, a development that aligns precisely with earlier market expectations.
Current Market Dynamics
Traders and market analysts are observing an emerging rally targeting long-term resistance levels. Interestingly, the early 2024 market upswing serves as a compelling analog for current price movements, providing a historical context for understanding potential future trajectories.
Market Movement Characteristics
The current market momentum presents a nuanced picture:
Continued upward movement is evident
Trading volume shows interesting characteristics
Price action indicates a slightly less volatile impulse compared to previous trends
What’s particularly noteworthy is how the market is maintaining its upward trajectory. Despite potential concerns about increased supply, the market has demonstrated remarkable stability. The current rally appears to be developing with a different volatility profile compared to previous market phases.
Supply and Demand Considerations
The prevailing market narrative around demand is progressively validating earlier predictions. Traders are speculating about the potential for an even stronger rally in the near term. While significant volatility might not be anticipated at current levels, the market remains dynamic and responsive.
Comparative Market Analysis
When examining the current market phase against historical patterns, several key observations emerge:
Volatility in the current market area differs substantially from previous periods
Price movements are showing measured, calculated progression
Supply increases are being absorbed without significant market disruption
Forward-Looking Perspective
Market participants should prepare for potential continued movement, albeit with a more measured approach. The expectation is not for explosive, high-volatility reactions, but rather a more controlled and strategic market progression.
Conclusion
Crude oil markets continue to provide fascinating insights for investors and traders. The current support level, emerging rally, and measured market dynamics suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Key Takeaways
Crude oil finding strong support at $66
Potential for a measured rally
Reduced volatility compared to previous market phases
Continuing positive momentum in market trends
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
Crude Oil Technical Outlook Crude Oil has once again found support near the $65 area, initiating a modest rebound. This bounce may extend toward the $72 level, which I view as a potential area of interest for initiating a short position.
Should price action reach that zone, I would look to enter short with a defined target range between $50 and $42. In this scenario, the stop loss would be fixed at $80.60, preserving a clear and disciplined risk management structure.
I’ll be closely monitoring price behavior and momentum as we approach resistance, particularly looking for signs of exhaustion around $72 to validate the setup.
Crude Oil Set for Mixed Outcomes Amidst Economic Tensions
- Key Insights: The crude oil market is experiencing mixed signals, with recent
positive momentum but an overarching bearish sentiment. Despite the slight
uptick, the market remains sensitive to economic and geopolitical factors,
suggesting cautious trading strategies. Investors should monitor key support
and resistance levels closely to inform trading decisions.
- Price Targets: Next week, traders might consider these targets:
- T1: $70.50, T2: $72.00
- S1: $66.50, S2: $65.00
This positioning aligns with the anticipation of potential upward movement while
guarding against lower breaks.
- Recent Performance: Crude oil has recently closed above key moving averages,
hinting at possible short-term gains. However, the broader market is
bearish, influenced by decreasing oil and gasoline prices, which may reduce
overall economic costs. The market's volatility is driven by broader
economic conditions and geopolitical influences.
- Expert Analysis: Opinions in the oil market are divided, with some experts
foreseeing bearish trends due to supply constraints and production capacity
issues. Others remain bullish in the long term, expecting economic
conditions like stagflation and inflation to drive demand and prices higher.
The imminent strengthening of the US dollar and its impact on linked indices
remains an area of attention.
- News Impact: Several notable events are influencing crude oil. Concerns about
sustaining production levels amidst declining rates and constrained spare
capacity highlight the critical need for investment in new projects.
Geopolitical tensions involving key global players are impacting supply
chains and pricing, potentially escalating inflationary pressures. Within
the sector, shifting production strategies and shareholder expectations may
redefine performance prospects in the near term.
Overall, while the short-term outlook might see some gains, traders should
remain cautious and informed, given the complex interplay of economic and
geopolitical factors affecting crude oil.
