CARVANA NEXT LEG DOWNCarvana is going down another 60% down. Short it it till 1.5 - 1 usd till it levels. Then only long..
CVNA trade ideas
Carvana in a DUMP trendCarvana stock looks very bad. It has created already new lows. We expect this trend to continue as Carvana doesn't look good also when it comes to its fundamentals. Carvana shares tank as bankruptcy concerns grow.
Expecting a small bounce towards the resistance, next heavy rejection and the downtrend continuation .
Play a small bounce or short it at the resistance.
Good luck
Happy Holidays!Wishing everyone Happy Holidays! 🎄🕎
I hope you enjoy my chartwork (the Christmas tree is brought to you by the shooting star 🌟 pattern on Carvana's quarterly chart).
As I reflect on this challenging past year, I thought I would post a few of the lessons I have learned trading and investing over the years.
Trading
Always manage risk by using a stop loss. Consider the asset's Average True Range (ATR) on the timeframe you're trading on. If the distance from your entry price to your stop-loss price is less than the ATR, then your trade is likely to fail (stop loss triggered) simply due to normal volatility.
If feasible, consider hiding your stop loss under large buy orders using level II market data.
Avoid trading on assets with low volume or assets with wide bid-ask spreads.
Consider the tax implications of your trades and consider developing a trading strategy that avoids triggering or minimizes the effect of the wash sale rule. For more trading tips you can read my post linked below.
Investing
Always manage risk by diversifying portfolio holdings. Consider holding a wide array of uncorrelated assets or a broad array of low-fee ETFs, REITs, and/or mutual funds.
When available, always opt to automatically reinvest dividends. This strategy works for investing (not trading) because most assets preserve wealth better over time than holding cash. Buying more and more of an asset over time compounds growth.
Consider the tax implications of your investments. Consider maximizing your investment's growth by using tax-sheltered accounts (IRAs and HSAs) and harvesting tax losses in taxable brokerage accounts.
Only invest in assets that, when adjusted for dividends, move up in price at a faster rate than that which the money supply grows. To determine whether an asset achieves this, compare the asset as a ratio to the money supply. For more details, you can read my post linked below.
These are just a few of the many lessons I have learned over the years. I have dozens of pages of tips and lessons learned in my Trading & Investing Notebook. I encourage everyone to keep a notebook.
What trading and investing lessons have you learned over the years? What tips would you give to a beginning trader? Leave a comment below!
Used Car Market is Stronger than This Chart - CVNA going upReasons to buy stock, open bullish spread, or long swing calls:
> RSI and stochastic both beginning to turn up with short term line crossing over longer term line.
> Yellow line shows first target to 64, which is more than double current stock price.
> Price is far from 20sma and due for mean reversion.
> Over the next few months, if warranted, price could go 3x or 4x higher into the upper yellow bands, 80-100 and 125-145.
> Company's Chief Product Officer made a huge purchase in June.
> Used car sales have been relatively strong due to demand from car rental companies.
> Risk is low if you buy under $30 (ideally under $28), with unusually high reward.
CARVANA to 0 will be a big indicator! (Bottom)ENG:
- Carvana is a used car dealership that operates like a unicorn. (they don't make money, they operate on loses).
- Sadly, Carvana is NOT a tech company that can generate additional revenues in any other way other than: SELLING CARS.
- Used car sales for the past 2 years went crazy towards the upside, and are now crashing fast.
- Most car loans generated in these last 18 to 24 months are underwater by quite an insane margin.
- The Car Repo Business has acquired long term properties, to not drop all inventory into the market at once, and kinda stabilizing prices.
- High interest rates make it impossible for average people to buy new or old cars at the moment and for the next year or so based on what the Fed says.
THESIS: Carvana shouldn't exist. They took advantage of being funded like a technology company, when their business model never evolved further than any other conventional car sales company.
Carvana is ONE OF MANY companies that shouldn't exists in this market. Until we see these companies go bust and what the consequences to the investment firms that poured money into them are, we can't call it a bottom.
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- Carvana es una concesionaria de autos usados que opera como un unicornio. (no ganan dinero, operan con pérdidas).
- Lamentablemente, Carvana NO es una empresa de tecnología que pueda generar ingresos adicionales de otra forma que no sea: VENDER AUTOS.
- Las ventas de autos usados durante los últimos 2 años se volvieron locas hacia arriba y ahora se están desplomando rápidamente.
- La mayoría de los préstamos para automóviles generados en estos últimos 18 a 24 meses están bajo el agua por un margen bastante gordo.
- El negocio de reposesion de autos, ha adquirido propiedades a largo plazo, para no dejar caer todo el inventario en el mercado a la vez y asi estabilizar un poco los precios.
- Las altas tasas de interés hacen que sea imposible para la gente promedio comprar autos nuevos o viejos en este momento y durante el próximo año, según lo que dice la Reserva Federal.
TESIS: Carvana no debería existir. Aprovecharon que se financiaban como una empresa de tecnología, cuando su modelo de negocio nunca evolucionó más que cualquier otra empresa de venta de automóviles convencional.
Carvana es UNA DE LAS MUCHAS empresas que no deberían existir en este mercado. Hasta que veamos que estas empresas quiebran y cuáles son las consecuencias para las empresas de inversión que invirtieron dinero en ellas, no podemos llamarlo fondo.
10 reasons most traders lose moneyHey everyone!👋
Trading & investing is not easy. If it were, everyone would be rich.
Here’s a couple time-honored reasons that traders lose money, and some tips to help you get back to basics.
Lack of knowledge 📘
Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful. As a result, they make costly mistakes and quickly lose money.
Poor risk management 🚨
Risk is an inherent part of trading, and it's important to manage it effectively in order to protect your capital and maximize your chances of success. However, many traders don't have a clear risk management strategy in place, and as a result, they are more vulnerable to outsized losses.
Emotional decision-making 😞
It's easy to feel strong emotions while trading. However, making decisions based on emotions rather than rational analysis can be a recipe for disaster. Many traders make poor decisions when they are feeling overwhelmed, greedy, or fearful and this can lead to significant losses.
Lack of discipline 🧘♂️
Successful trading requires discipline, but many traders struggle to stick to their plan. This can be especially challenging when the market is volatile or when a trader is going through a drawdown. Create a system for yourself that's easy to stay compliant with!
Over-trading 📊
Many traders make the mistake of over-trading, which means they take on too many trades and don't allow their trades to play out properly. This leads to increased risk, higher brokerage costs, and a greater likelihood of making losses. Clearly articulating setups you like can help separate good opportunities from the chaff.
Lack of a trading plan 📝
A trading plan provides a clear set of rules and guidelines to follow when taking trades. Without a plan, traders may make impulsive decisions, which can be dangerous and often lead to losses.
Not keeping up with important data and information ⏰
The market and its common narratives are constantly evolving, and it's important for traders to stay up-to-date with the latest developments in order to make informed decisions.
Not cutting losses quickly ✂️
No trader can avoid making losses completely, but the key is to minimize their impact on your account. One of the best ways to do this is to cut your losses quickly when a trade goes against you. However, many traders hold onto losing trades for too long, hoping that they will recover, and this can lead to larger than expected losses.
Not maximizing winners 💸
Just as it's important to cut your losses quickly, it's also important to maximize your winners. Many traders fail to do this, either because they don’t have a plan in place, telling them when and how to exit a trade. As a result, they may leave money on the table and miss out on potential profits.
Not Adapting 📚
Adapting to changing market conditions is paramount to success in the financial markets. Regimes change, trading edge disappears and reappears, and the systems underpinning everything are constantly in flux. One day a trading strategy is producing consistent profits, the next, it isn't. Traders need to adapt in order to make money over the long term, or they risk getting phased out of the market.
Overall, the majority of traders make losses because they fail to prepare for the challenges of the market. By educating themselves, developing a solid trading plan, and planning out decisions beforehand, traders can improve their chances of success and avoid common pitfalls.
We hope you enjoyed! Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below!
See you all next week. 🙂
– Team TradingView
CVNA - up trend underwayCVNA built a cup base formation over 2.5 months before breaking up a minor neckline@34 on 5 Aug with very high volume.
It has also since broken above another neckline @ 47 and the trend is clearly up now. Any near term retracement should not go below 42
Manage positions with trailing stops.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
$CVNA Quick Double - Best Case ScenarioCarvana stock is more hammered than a freshman in college trying to rush a fraternity.
Is there more downside potential in the short-medium term? Absolutely. But, there's currently a hollow green candle on the monthly chart and the daily chart is showing some signs of possible reversal (yes, I'm writing this after a 12% down day).
Trade plan - buying shares and looking for 25-50% upside in the next several weeks prior to an earnings report that could do further damage to the stock price unless there's a positive suprise or some sort of good news (not sure what that could honestly be).
30+% of short interest is another factor why we could see a quick uptick prior to earnings in the case that shorts cover prior to earnings.
Bought: $22
Target range to sell: $30-35
Good luck people!
- C
As always, this is not advice just tracking my personal trade.
