SASOLSasol been making a series of 'high lows' and now needs to clear that 255-265ish resistance area to expose 320 as the next possible target.
SSL trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of SOLSasol (SOL) is a massive international chemicals and energy company which has its roots in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era in South Africa. About 50% of the company's profits are directly linked to the oil price. It has two main growth areas - its 50% stake in an ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, America, known as "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its development of gas resources in Mozambique. Sasol was awarded two new licences in Mozambique to explore for gas in an onshore development of approximately three thousand square kilometres. This could significantly add to its existing gas projects in the Rovuma province. One area of concern for Sasol is that it is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and on the JSE. It is listed as one of the 100 fossil-fuel companies world-wide that contribute to more than 70% of Greenhouse gases. The company remains under international pressure to deal with its carbon emissions effectively. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported turnover of R289,7bn compared to R272,7bn in the previous year. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) was up 13% and the company's net asset value (NAV) increased by 4%. The company said, "Despite benefitting from the elevated brent crude oil price and a weaker rand/US$ exchange rate, our profitability for the year was constrained. Challenges in our South African mining operations and reduced margins in our American and Eurasian segments, driven by unfavourable market conditions, impacted our financial results". Since the impact of COVID-19, the share was making a dramatic recovery which has been brought to an end by the latest results. Obviously, the share initially benefited from Brent oil prices which rose to a high of around $127 per barrel but then fell back to below $82. Oil prices are now rising again. Sasol remains a volatile commodity share. The company says that it has now sourced 550mw of renewable energy - which takes it closer to its carbon emissions goals. On 12th July 2023 the company announced that its application to be exempt from the sulphur dioxide emissions rules at its Secunda plant had been rejected. This could have a major impact on the company's long-term viability.
$JSESOL - SASOL: The Bigger PictureTaking a step back and looking at the bigger picture can provide a lot of clarity.
Going as far back as June 2014, when Sasol made its all time high at 65299, the large wave structure from 65299 to 2077 is a zigzag.
Wave (A) was an impulse followed by a protracted flat for wave (B) and another impulse for wave (C).
What is interesting to note is that in wave (C), only wave 5 was driven by the covid-19 market sell-off.
The rally from the March 2020 low to the peak at 43860 appears to have been in five waves, which is bullish, hence I am looking at the current retracement as a correction of this five wave advance.
Price will most probably not go back towards 2077 but the stock can most certainly trade lower than 22136.
There is no evidence yet of a resumption of the bull trend so I will sit on my hands in the meantime.
Sasol underperfomace to US oil stocks $JSESOL has underperformed AMEX:XLE (US oil stocks ETF) massivley over the last year.
There have been good reasons for this, amoungst others, loadshedding and FX hedging losses.
I'm not bullish on Sasol's management given their poor track record, however this divergance appears overdone and could return to the mean on the recent oil price strength.
SOL: worth a long?A price action above 24500 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further bullish confirmation for a break above 25500.
The target price is set at 26600, almost the 100% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop-loss is set at 23600.
A concern remains the complex correction pattern that is unfolding.
$JSESOL #SASOL: A Chance Gone A Begging?For a third time now it seems as if #Sasol has had no success in overcoming the neckline of a massive Head and Shoulders pattern, which can then lead to the conclusion that a price of below R70 could be on the cards if this pattern plays out. A possible formation of a bearish flag pattern also brings no further solace.
Our opinion on the current state of SOL.Sasol (SOL) is a massive international chemicals and energy company which has its roots in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era in South Africa. About 50% of the company's profits are directly linked to the oil price. It has two main growth areas - its 50% stake in an ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, America, known as "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its development of gas resources in Mozambique. Sasol was awarded two new licences in Mozambique to explore for gas in an onshore development of approximately three thousand square kilometres. This could significantly add to its existing gas projects in the Rovuma province. One area of concern for Sasol is that it is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and on the JSE. It is listed as one of the 100 fossil-fuel companies world-wide that contribute to more than 70% of Greenhouse gases. The company remains under international pressure to deal with its carbon emissions effectively. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported turnover of R289,7bn compared to R272,7bn in the previous year. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) was up 13% and the company's net asset value (NAV) increased by 4%. The company said, "Despite benefitting from the elevated brent crude oil price and a weaker rand/US$ exchange rate, our profitability for the year was constrained. Challenges in our South African mining operations and reduced margins in our American and Eurasian segments, driven by unfavourable market conditions, impacted our financial results". Since the impact of COVID-19, the share was making a dramatic recovery which has been brought to an end by the latest results. Obviously, the share initially benefited from Brent oil prices which rose to a high of around $127 per barrel but then fell back to below $82. Oil prices are now rising again. Sasol remains a volatile commodity share. The company says that it has now sourced 550mw of renewable energy - which takes it closer to its carbon emissions goals. On 12th July 2023 the company announced that its application to be exempt from the sulphur dioxide emissions rules at its Secunda plant had been rejected. This could have a major impact on the company's long-term viability.
SASOL (SOL)SASOL (23/08/2023) - MONTHLY CHART:
Sasol's monthly chart shows a rounding bottom pattern, similar to movements in August 2008 and April 2011. The price appears to consolidate around a support zone, excluding the COVID-related drop.
This might lead to a sideways phase followed by a potential long-term uptrend.
Note: The time taken for the pattern's first half is roughly expected to match the second half's duration.
SOL: attempting the Fibonacci levelsA price action above 24300 supports a bullish trend direction.
The 38.2% Fibonacci level might act as some support.
Increase exposure for a break above 24700 (50% Fibonacci level).
The target price is set at 25200 (its 61.8% Fibonacci level).
The Stop-loss is set at 23800.
Remains a very risky trade.
SASOL - Observation - #JSESOLSasol had a solid day clocking up a 5.84% gain on the back of news causing energy fears.
Price close above the down sloping 200day moving average and at its highs which is bullish.
Next level of interest is the swing high at R266.20 and then R275.
Ideally bulls will want to keep it above the 200dma to keep the momentum going or risk a fade to close gap at R250.
Sasol (SOL): Good Risk Reward ProspectsSasol makes a case for a cycle low on 26 April with a yearly low price set at 20 March. The share price is seeking a yearly low price, the previous was 1094 days ago or the COVID low. Yearly lows are great entry points for good gains, in this case we can expect price to challenge the previous highs of over R400. This is one to keep an eye on and will be updated frequently for guidance. Early birds can scale in when price closes above the pink resistance immediately above current price.
