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DAX 40 Futures (EUREX) (OANDA EU Clients)

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#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Perfect bullish outlook last week and we can’t be anything but bullish going into next week as well. 5 consecutive bull bars and Thu+Fri got bigger and closed almost at the high of the day. Market held above the 15m 20ema since Thursday EU open and this should be your guide for now. If we break below, 1h 20ema is the next support and below that I favor a more complex pullback with sideways to down movement. Until bears manage that, it’s max bullishness and the bubble will probably grow to 20000 before we can talk about busting again. Quote from last week: comment: Monday left no doubt where we were heading and my outlook was perfect. No one wanted to buy above 19000 and we traded 300 points down again. We are contracting inside the bull wedge and will see a breakout over the next 3 days. That can go either way so I will go neutral into next week. Both sides have reasonable arguments. I do favor the bulls slightly but need confirmation for that and this would only be above 19300/19400 and that is 600 points away. We are inside a trading range 17700 - 19000 for over 6 months now. That is as neutral as it gets. We are making higher highs but by how much? Couple of points and that’s absolutely normal inside trading ranges. And if you think “bUt YoU sAiD wE aRe iN a BuLl wEdGe”, yes. Might blow your brain out but markets can trade inside a multiple of patterns on different time frames and you have to prioritize them by the one starting on the highest tf and working yourself to the lowest tf you want to trade. comment: Big bull breakout on Friday and now the only question is, are we getting follow through and this breakout is for real or is it a bull trap? I do think both sides have reasonable arguments. Bulls have a very strong two legged move where leg 1 on the weekly chart was 11% and a measured move would bring us above 20000. Bears know that bullish breakouts above multiple bullish patterns are very rare and their chance of success small. I do favor the bulls slightly, since we left a big bull gap behind us and Friday closed at the very high. If bulls get follow through above 19500, this breakout is likely real, if we trade below 19200 again, it might go down to 19000 where the market will probably go more sideways before another impulse. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls want this monthly September bar closing on it’s high and that would be a huge buy signal. Not many bears can hold long when we close above 19300, because it’s very possible that we see 20000 next. We are once again at a place where the pain trade is up and a blow off top a likely possibility. German GDP will likely be negativ this year, so let’s print the most absurd number the market can come up with. Market always goes where the most liquidity is and it’s obviously up, likely due to short squeezing. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears need to close this giant bull gap or more traders will trade this breakout as a runaway gap to 20000. If they manage to close it, they will likely need to fight more around 19000 until the daily ema comes closer and make the market go more sideways until the next impulse comes around. The more they can stall the market, the better for them. Bulls buying here is purely on momentum and once that fades, many want to secure the profits before the bubble pops. Invalidation is above 19550. outlook last week: short term: Neutral around 18720 but expecting bulls to come around and retest 19000. Could drop to 18500/18600 first though. Anything below 18500 would surprise me big time. → Last Sunday we traded 18720 and now we are at 19473. Absolute perfect bullish outlook and I hope you listend and took the longs. short term: Neutral until bulls break strongly above 19500 with follow through. Small chance bears show strength and trade below 19200 again but some form of pullback/sideways movement is expected. Favoring the bulls to close the month above 19200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29 : 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19000 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. Update: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed potential two legged correction and added the big bull gap.
XETR:DAXLong
by priceactiontds
GER 40 Poised to Reach 19,300 - 19,450GER 40 Poised to Reach 19,300 - 19,450 The GER 40 has broken out from two strong resistance zones that previously halted its progress, indicating potential for further gains. This week, we’ve observed a general uptrend across most indices, with the GER 40 being a notable performer. After a prolonged period, the price tested the 18,900 zone and successfully broke through. This breakout has formed a bullish triangle pattern, suggesting further growth and the possibility of new all-time highs. It seems incredible, but indices are hitting record highs even as market discussions revolve around recession and other uncertainties. Given the current momentum, the GER 40 may easily reach the 19,300 - 19,450 range. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by KlejdiCuni
7
Wed 2024 09 25 - Short - DE40 8am H4 double color||| Stats ||| Stats Day: ** 08:00 H4 double color, - Short ** 09:30 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti +18, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range ** 09:45 VOLD +1.4, AD +1.2, Senti -3, Agio St +0.05, Lg +0.05, - Range ** 16:15 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short Stats Week: ** DE PMI: - low, ** EU PMI: - low, ** US PMI: - low, ** Mon Morning rule - 2 day break out - up, ** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change - pending, Stats Month: ** Sep turn - pending, Stats Year: ** US Election, ||| Trade Taken ||| Trade Taken: ** Time frame: * H4 ** Time: * 08am, Set-Up: ** Trigger for trade: * 8am H4 double color Short, * Senti +61, * m45 close outside m45 BB Risk Reward: ** Risk: * Initial Turn, ** Target: * R 1:1,
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by ErPat
DAX / BASF Soars on Listing News; DAX Stays BullishBASF Jumps 5% on Agri-Chemicals Listing News; DAX Remains in Bullish Zone Shares of German chemical giant BASF (BAS) surged 5% following a Bloomberg report indicating plans to list its Agri-Chemicals business as part of a broader corporate overhaul. While the listing is projected to occur in several years, the official announcement is expected during the company's capital markets day later this month. DAX Technical Analysis: The DAX index remains in a bullish momentum zone, trading above 18,640. Potential upside targets include 18,850, with an extended move toward 18,980. The overall trend is expected to maintain its bullish bias ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. However, a decisive break below 18,640 could indicate a downturn, with the price potentially dropping towards the 18,520 support level. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 18720 Resistance Levels: 18842, 18970, 19150 Support Levels: 18640, 18520, 18300 Expected Trading Range: 18640 - 18970 Trend Outlook: Bullish as long as the price remains above 18,640. Previous idea:
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by SroshMayi
-Trade L- Tue 2024 09 23 - DE40 6pm H3 - Momentum|||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Stats |||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Stats Day: ** 08:00 H4 double color, - NO ** 09:30 VOLD ?NA?, AD ?NA?, Senti -35, Agio St +0.05, Lg +0.02, - Range ** 09:45 VOLD ?NA?, AD ?NA?, Senti -14, Agio St +0.05, Lg +0.05, - Range ** 16:15 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short Stats Week: ** DE PMI: - lower, ** EU PMI: - lower, ** US PMI: - lower, ** Mon Morning rule - Break on Monday by H3 hammer, ** Tue returned to W1 trend - UP, Stats Month: ** Sep turn - pending, Stats Year: ** US Election, |||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Trade Taken |||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Trade Taken: ** Time frame: * H3 ** Time: * 06pm, Set-Up: ** Trigger for trade: * Momentum Long, * Mon Morning rule, * Tue returned to W1 trend - UP * Senti -47, ** Mom Width: * 1 candle - strong, ** Mom Type: * 3rd directional - risk at last Mom turn, Risk Reward: ** Risk: * last Mom Turn, ** Target: * R 1:1
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by ErPat