AAAlibaba Group Holding Limited
15.13USDD
−0.09−0.57%
As of today at 15:45 GMT
USD
No trades
BABAF trade ideas
BABA possible rejection zone. Target 76I´m expecting a rejection at 73,80 what will leads to strong momentum and reaching the target in this week. It is possible to trade this idea in the two ways.
1. Aggressive = with smaller size you will enter just after the US market open and you will close your trade if any 4H will close below the SL zone.
2. Conservative = with a bigger size you will enter after the price was rejected upwards from 73,80 and there is a clear 15M-30M close above 74,40. After entry, set your SL and trail it with 1ATR from 15M chart.
Wish you good luck.
BUY BABAAlibaba is one of the world largest online and mobile commerce company. It operates China's online marketplaces, including Taobao and Tmall. The company is one of the most referential in the country.
One of China's most valuable companies.
Annual revenue growth, USD 125 billion TTM.
Low valuation multiples versus industry.
Pricing at 2016 levels.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - alibaba #2Greetings,
Last time i wrote about Alibaba was 2024-01-30 and i just read something about a WSB 'investor" betting big on higher prices for this stock. Boi.
I mean. Does anyone seriously look at this chart and think? G, this looks like it found a bottom and is ready to go back to the moon. If you do so, enlighten me with your thoughts in the comments.
This stock is on it's way lower. It can't trade more than a couple of days above the daily 20ema and it's still making lower lows. Could the January low at 66.63 hold and we make higher lows from there? Sure but the odds of that are low and market has to at least retest that price. I still think market will go lower and will probably retest 2015 & 2022 low around 57/58 and even then it has to trade way more time sideways before one could conclude, that the bottom is in. There are so so many trapped bulls who will use any bounce to reduce their losses. Maybe it's not a good short below 80 on a weekly timeframe but it sure as hell isn't a buy unless you do not care at all about another possible -40% and would happily add on to longs there.
Potential low could be around 60 but we do not know that by looking at the price action so far. Markets do not go from one trend to another or at least it's so rare that betting on it, will lose you money in the long run.
Bull case: Best they can pray for is sideways and find a bottom around 60. They have to be quick to take profits because of all the trapped bulls using any bounce to reduce their losses.
Bear case: Bears want to retest 58 and until bulls generate more buying pressure and bears fail to make lower lows, they will continue short this relentlessly. Clear down trend on multiple time frames and it's clearly SELL THE RIP.
short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find the true bottom and until all bear channels are broken and market testet the lows multiple times, it's sideways or down.
medium-long term: Sideways until no lower lows and consecutive bigger bull bars without an immediate selloff the next days
BABA Stock – Why 2024 Could Be Alibaba’s Year2023 stood out as a great year for global stocks, unleashing strong rallies across the U.S., Europe, Japan, and India. Yet, the same sentiment wasn’t felt in China. In fact, Chinese and Hong Kong stocks ended 2023 as the world’s worst-performing equity markets.
While this bad performance can be blamed on the various issues with China’s economy, such as the real estate crisis, weak consumer spending, and high youth unemployment, there’s no denying that China’s government is also to blame, with its unpredictable regulatory crackdowns that caused many tech companies’ valuations to sink.
One of these tech companies is the e-commerce titan Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), which saw a terrible year full of setbacks thanks to China’s policies and its tense relations with the U.S., and that led BABA stock to close the year at a valuation near its 52-week low!
Despite this, Alibaba still has a chance to turn its fate around. There are several catalysts that make BABA stock look like it’s set for a rebound in 2024, and as it slips closer to its lowest-ever valuation, now could be the perfect time to buy BABA stock.
Chinese Stocks Bad Performance
When we say that 2023 was a bad year for Chinese stocks, we really mean it. China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index fell more than 11%, hitting five-year lows. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell almost 14%, marking its first four-year losing streak since its launch in 1969.
This terrible performance would’ve been unbelievable at the beginning of 2023 when investors were excited about Chinese stocks because Beijing abandoned its strict Zero-Covid policies and was opening up again in late 2022, so investors expected a quick economic recovery.
However, the rebound they expected didn’t come, and Chinese stocks failed to gain momentum because of a long list of challenges, including a slowing economy and a sluggish demand that created a risk of a deflationary spiral.
In addition to China’s own economic problems, the country’s regulatory landscape and relations with the U.S. worsened in 2023, especially harming Chinese tech stocks listed on U.S. exchanges.
BABA Stock Background
One such stock is BABA stock, which is currently nearing an all-time low valuation. This would’ve been unbelievable 10 years ago, when the Chinese company first went public.
Alibaba was at its peak when it went public in 2014. Then, it became the de facto e-commerce company in China, a leader in the country’s technology industry rivaled only by Tencent, and its prospects for growth seemed unlimited.
But now, most investors avoid BABA stock. The landscape of the market changed completely, and Alibaba now faces severe competition from companies like Pinduoduo (NASDAQ: PDD) and Douyin (NASDAQ: DOYU).
It’s also no longer among the top-two technology companies in China by market cap. But, above all, long-term investors have suffered with the share price sinking to around $70 today, not far from its IPO price of $68.
BABA Stock’s Declining Valuation
There are multiple factors that contributed to Alibaba’s sinking valuation. Still, they all lead back to 2020 when Alibaba’s co-founder and former executive chairman, Jack Ma, publicly criticized China’s financial regulators and Chinese banks and accused them of stifling innovation.
As a result, the Chinese authorities pulled the plug on Alibaba’s affiliate financial services company Ant Group’s $37 billion IPO in November 2020 and ordered the company to restructure its business.
This ended the company’s plans for a dual listing in both Hong Kong and Shanghai, which would have been the biggest IPO in history. Ant Group was also fined $984 million by the regulators. Failing to take Ant Group public took a heavy toll on Alibaba’s valuation, with the combined market cap losses of the two companies reaching $877 billion.
After this instance, it seemed the regulators had completely turned against Alibaba. Beijing launched an antitrust investigation into the company and determined that it had abused its position as the market leader for years. As a result of the investigation, Alibaba was fined $2.8 billion and forced to change its algorithm for ranking search results.
By 2023, Alibaba had the Chinese government against it, was forced to pay billions in lawsuits, lost market cap to competitors, and was worth around a quarter of its peak valuation at more than $800 billion.
Why BABA Stock could Rebound
The company’s management knew it had to act, and its response was a complete restructuring of its business.
Alibaba split into six independently run companies that would seek separate IPOs, dismantling Jack Ma’s business empire. This was Alibaba’s way of leaving the Jack Ma era behind, and the company’s strategy to combat rising competition by speeding up decision-making and allowing each division to focus on growing itself.
But, it seemed like restructuring the company still wasn’t enough, as Alibaba was forced to cancel the spinoff of its $11 billion cloud computing business, Alibaba Cloud, in November, thanks to the tense U.S.-China relations and the trade war between the two countries that led to investigations and curbs on the technologies traded between the U.S. and China, especially chip technologies.
When Alibaba announced the cancellation of the spinoff, it cited uncertainties created by U.S. export curbs on chips used in artificial intelligence applications. As a result of failing to take Alibaba Cloud public, Alibaba’s market cap dropped by a massive $21.1 billion.
These problems have caused BABA stock to fall by more than 39% since its peak in January of 2023. However, some positive catalysts for BABA stock could lead to a rally in the future.
Restructuring
Alibaba has already taken a few steps to address and fix its problems. First of all, the company has restructured its business into six units and is looking to list them separately to create shareholder value and foster market competitiveness.
This would allow Alibaba’s businesses to become more agile, reversing the centralization Jack Ma started. It would help each business focus on its own growth and speed up decision-making in order to counter the increasing competition in the market and increase the company’s profitability.
Alibaba plans to give each business unit its own board and management team to run the business with total autonomy. It also changed its management team, replacing longtime CEO and chairman Daniel Zhang with new CEO Eddie Wu so Zhang could lead the company’s cloud computing business unit.
Alibaba’s management team also stated its commitment to increasing its investments in the company’s core businesses and the main drivers behind its growth, such as e-commerce, cloud computing, and logistics, which would allow it to improve the company’s profitability.
As the company focuses more on its core businesses, cloud computing and e-commerce, it will also monetize its non-core assets, which include $67 billion of equity securities and investments on its balance sheet, as well as other non-core operating businesses with low-growth or low returns.
This was good news for investors, as Alibaba monetizing its assets meant that it would be able to generate billions of revenue through assets that aren’t strategic to the business. It also offered the opportunity to pay investors dividends or give them more stocks. In fact, Alibaba has started paying dividends in the latest quarter.
Lastly, Alibaba is also spending billions of dollars in share buybacks, and repurchased $1.7 billion worth of its shares in the September quarter, leaving another $14.6 billion in its current buyback plan.
Artificial Intelligence
Alibaba has a lot of opportunities in the AI industry. This is because the company is expanding its footprint in the large language model (LLM) domain, which is a type of AI program that can recognize and generate text, among other tasks.
Alibaba Cloud has announced the open sourcing of its own LLMs, Qwen-72B and Qwen-1.8B. These releases are extremely important since they significantly widen the accessibility to advanced AI technologies in China.
Alibaba’s LLM models are known for outperforming industry benchmarks, which gives the company an opportunity for future growth as the global LLM market is expected to reach $40.8 billion by 2029, and having a leading position in the market would help Alibaba capitalize on this market growth.
In addition to developing its own AI models, Alibaba is also leading the cloud services sector in China with a 39% share, followed by Huawei Technologies and Tencent. Alibaba’s leading position in the Chinese cloud computing market provides it with many opportunities in a rapidly growing market. In fact, China’s cloud computing market is expected to reach $140 billion in 2025.
So, it’s obvious how Alibaba could see significant growth thanks to the rise of AI, especially when you consider China’s growing interest in the industry. The country even revealed plans back in 2017 to become the world’s leader in the industry by 2030.
China’s strong desire to become the global AI leader is shown in the amount it spent on AI projects in 2023 alone, which was around $15 billion, a rise of nearly 50% since 2021.
This heavy spending on AI will likely reach trillions of dollars, making AI a strategic driver of economic growth in China and indicating the large number of opportunities in the AI market for Alibaba, especially since the company is already one of its main players.
China’s Economic Recovery
Besides Alibaba’s AI prospects, the stock is expected to rally with other Chinese stocks thanks to the expected economic recovery in China.
The Chinese government has, in recent months, introduced a series of policies to attract investments to the country, as well as stimulus packages in order to revive its economy. The last financial injection by the Chinese government into the economy came in October 2023 in the form of sovereign bonds worth 1 trillion yuan, or $140 billion, in order to fund investment projects. It’s also likely that the government will focus on more fiscal steps to support growth into 2024.
President Xi Jinping’s New Year’s message made this clear, in which he acknowledged the recent headwinds the Chinese economy faced, and said that China would enhance the positive trend of its economic recovery in 2024, and sustain long-term economic development with deeper reforms.
The country’s banks are also taking action to counter the risk of deflation, with China’s central bank saying it would step up policy adjustments to support the economy and promote a rebound in prices.
Additionally, five of China’s largest state banks lowered interest rates on some deposits on December 22, which marked the third round of interest rate cuts in 2023. This could help the central bank move toward easing monetary policy.
China is also taking steps to better its economy, which includes heavy investments in research and development in order to develop new technologies and industries. The country now ranks second in the world in terms of total R&D spending.
The country also invests in creating special economic zones, where businesses can operate under more flexible regulations to attract foreign investment.Finally, the Chinese government has also implemented multiple policies to encourage domestic spending, such as tax breaks for homebuyers and subsidies for electronics consumers.
BABA Stock Forecast
Since it’s near its 52-week low, BABA stock could now provide a good investment opportunity once you consider factors such as Alibaba’s management’s plans to monetize the company’s less profitable assets to increase the value for shareholders, as well as the start of the dividend payouts at an indicated dividend yield of 1.26%.
Another important thing to consider is that Alibaba’s EPS will grow by a CAGR of 17.5% over the next five years and the fact that institutional ownership of BABA stock jumped by 100% in December 2023, a sign indicating the strong institutional interest in BABA stock as it fell to its 52-week low, which could mean that the stock is currently undervalued.
There’s also the prospect of China’s economic recovery. While it will not happen overnight, the Chinese government is taking multiple steps in the right direction to boost its economy.
With all of this in mind, and at its current price and valuation, it could be a great opportunity for investors who are interested in BABA stock as a long-term investment. However, investors should be aware of the risks of investing in Chinese tech companies, such as China’s unpredictable regulatory scrutiny, and the increased global and local competition in China.
BABA stock might be a promising opportunity for risk-tolerant investors who want a stake in China’s large and growing tech and AI market. If you’re interested in BABA stock, you might want to allocate only a small part of your portfolio, depending on your risk tolerance.
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t exited BABA when SoftBank sold its huge stake in the company:
nor reentered the technical rebound:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BABA Alibaba prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 75usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $4.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
BABA's Bullish flag before earnings!A bullish flag is a technical analysis chart pattern that signals a potential continuation of an uptrend.
It is characterized by a sharp price increase (the flagpole), followed by a brief period of consolidation (the flag), and then a breakout that confirms the uptrend.
The key elements of a bullish flag are:
Flagpole: A sharp price increase, usually on high volume.
Flag: A period of consolidation, with prices trading between two parallel trendlines. The consolidation typically lasts for a few days to a few weeks.
Breakout: A price move that breaks above the upper trendline of the flag, typically on high volume.
This confirms the uptrend and signals that the price is likely to continue moving higher.
Bullish flags are considered to be relatively reliable continuation patterns, but they are not foolproof.
The longer the flagpole, the more reliable the pattern is likely to be.
The higher the volume during the breakout, the stronger the signal.
Bullish flags are more likely to occur in strong uptrends.
Bullish flags are not guarantees of future price movements.
Alibaba's Bold Moves: A Strategic Shift Towards Stability
Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ), China's internet giant, has made headlines once again with its recent fiscal third-quarter earnings report. Despite market volatility, the company showcased resilience by surpassing revenue expectations and announcing a significant increase in its share buyback program. However, amidst these positive developments, BABA shares experienced a notable decline, leaving investors pondering the implications of Alibaba's strategic maneuvers.
Revenue Surpasses Expectations:
In a demonstration of strength, Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $36.67 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations. This robust performance underscores the enduring appeal of Alibaba's e-commerce platforms, Taobao and Tmall, which collectively witnessed a 3% year-over-year growth in local currency. Additionally, the company's cloud intelligence group reported a 3% increase in revenue, further solidifying its position in the competitive cloud computing market.
Share Buyback Program Expansion:
In a bold move, Alibaba |( NYSE:BABA ) announced a staggering $25 billion increase to its share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its future prospects. Chief Financial Officer Toby Xu emphasized that this decision reflects the company's unwavering belief in the trajectory of its business and cash flow. This significant capital allocation strategy underscores Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) commitment to maximizing shareholder value amidst market uncertainties.
Strategic Priorities and Investments:
Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) leadership outlined strategic priorities aimed at reigniting growth in its core businesses, particularly e-commerce and cloud computing. Chief Executive Eddie Wu emphasized plans to enhance user experiences on Taobao and Tmall, reinforcing the company's market leadership. To support these initiatives, Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) intends to ramp up investments, positioning itself for sustained growth and competitive advantage in the coming years.
Market Response and Investor Sentiment:
Despite Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) strong financial performance and strategic announcements, NYSE:BABA shares experienced a notable decline, reflecting broader market dynamics and investor sentiment. While risk-tolerant investors may view recent price movements as an opportunity, others may exercise caution amidst lingering uncertainties surrounding regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical tensions.
Conclusion:
Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) fiscal third-quarter earnings report showcases the company's resilience and strategic foresight amidst challenging market conditions. With revenue surpassing expectations and a substantial expansion of its share buyback program, Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) reaffirms its commitment to long-term value creation. As the company navigates evolving market dynamics, investors will closely monitor its execution of strategic priorities and its ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities, shaping Alibaba's trajectory in the global marketplace.
Alibaba's Strategic Shift: Challenges and Opportunities
Introduction
In the whirlwind of global economic fluctuations and regulatory scrutiny, Alibaba Group (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ), the Chinese e-commerce behemoth, has found itself at a critical juncture. Recent developments, including a shift in management and strategic restructuring, signal a concerted effort to navigate a complex landscape of challenges while leveraging potential opportunities. Let's delve into the intricacies of Alibaba's (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) recent moves and explore the implications for investors and stakeholders alike.
Navigating Turbulent Waters:
Alibaba's (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) resilience in the face of adversity has been tested repeatedly, with regulatory crackdowns and economic headwinds casting a shadow over its once-unstoppable growth trajectory. However, amid the storm, the company is charting a course toward greater focus and efficiency. The decision to divest non-core assets, including grocery business Freshippo and retailer RT-Mart, underscores a strategic realignment aimed at reinforcing the company's core strengths while shedding underperforming ventures.
Strategic Realignment:
Under the stewardship of Chairman Joe Tsai and newly appointed CEO Eddie Wu, Alibaba is undergoing a fundamental shift in its business model. The emphasis on consolidating its core profitable e-commerce operations reflects a pragmatic approach to resource allocation and risk management. By streamlining its portfolio and doubling down on key growth drivers such as AI, cloud computing, and overseas expansion, Alibaba is positioning itself for sustained success in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.
Unlocking Value:
The potential divestment of assets, while initially raising eyebrows, represents a calculated move to unlock value for shareholders. By jettisoning non-core, loss-making units, Alibaba (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) aims to streamline its operations and enhance shareholder returns. Moreover, the company's prudent financial management, highlighted by a robust balance sheet boasting significant cash reserves, instills confidence in its ability to weather short-term challenges and capitalize on long-term growth opportunities.
Redefining Priorities:
Alibaba's (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) strategic realignment is not merely a reactionary measure to external pressures but a proactive reevaluation of its long-term priorities. The decision to conduct a strategic review to distinguish between "core" and "non-core" businesses underscores a commitment to strategic agility and adaptability. By aligning its business strategy with emerging market dynamics and consumer preferences, Alibaba (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) is positioning itself as a nimble player capable of seizing opportunities in a rapidly changing landscape.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Alibaba's (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) recent strategic maneuvers signify a decisive step towards sustainable growth and value creation. Despite facing headwinds from regulatory uncertainty and economic challenges, the company remains resilient and resourceful. By refocusing on its core strengths, divesting non-core assets, and embracing strategic realignment, Alibaba is laying the groundwork for a new era of innovation and prosperity.
BABA, BIG POTENTIAL FOR EARNINGS BREAKOUT (BULLISH)Like the title says, Bullish.
There is so much going on behind the scenes based on the world events today.
BUT, in the end, BABA is going to be a big supplier of goods across the Asia continent, and there are a LOT of people to sell to.
Put/Call chart is included, I've highlighted the outliers.
Does this mean I'm suggesting to yolo puts and calls? Probably not, but to be totally honest, if you do, I wish luck and hope you make bank. However, I'd say it's risky for short term options.
Long term options on the other hand, if you can buy the spread dip, I like the prices on calls.
I personally think BABA will be a rise and crash stock.
There are numbers showing well in the range of 600 and 700.
Similar to TSLA (previous run), META (current run). Similar, not exact, but similar.
Would I be surprised if the stock was $800 by Sept, NOPE.
Would I expect the stock to be at $800 by Sept, NOPE.
Possible and probable are two different things.
I'm currently eying the potential to hold $63, and maybe even already has and will hold $69, but it's good to be prepared on the low side in case of drops.
RSI is in alignment for one hell of a move to the upside should it want to use earnings as an excuse to rocket.
Basically, in all, my opinion on BABA based on the chart, I'm a fan currently.
In other words, there is a better than average chance for profit and limited losses should you decide to buy at these levels.
If you invest in amazon, you'd probably love BABA, especially if you can sell one at a high, and buy the other at a low, and then keep repeating the process until you own them both.
Good luck!
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (‘BABA’)
Shares in Alibaba Group Holding Limited (symbol ‘BABA’) incurred losses in the fourth quarter of around 11%. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending December 2023 is set to be released on Wednesday 7th of February, before market open. The consensus EPS is $2.40 compared to the same quarter of last year at $2.44.
‘As of 30/09/2023 the price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of the company was at 9.39 which is considered relatively low compared to the average of S&P 500 for example which is around 23. This means that investors are not expecting any significant growth for the company and are somewhat reluctant to invest. Also the company has around 3.2% more long term debt year over year and is making up almost 25% of the total liabilities.’ said Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness
On the technical side the price is testing the resistance level of the 50 day moving average trading just above the support of the 78.6% of the monthly Fibonacci retracement level. The Stochastic oscillator has moved away from the extreme overbought levels while at the same time the faster moving average is trading below the slower one indicating that the overall bearish momentum in the market is still valid. If the price manages to make a valid break above the 50 day moving average then the first level of possible resistance might be seen around the $80 price area which consists of the psychological resistance of the round number, the 100 day moving average and is also just below the 61.8% of the monthly Fibonacci retracement level.
a daily price action after hour update - alibabaGood evening and i hope you are well.
I do the occasional price action analysis of individual stocks and today i try to get my opinion across for alibaba or the death of capital as i see it. I think mostly trapped bulls will click on this, having hopes that someone besides them think "IT JUST CAN'T GO LOWER AND IT HAS TO RALLY".
The only question right now for this stock is, what comes first: Touch of monthly 20ema or 60 ? Who knows. I surely don't and neither do you. Right now bulls are making some tails below bars but the last time a month printed above the previous one was 2023-07. I drew 2 bear trend lines which make me think the odds of trading to 60 are higher than going up. I have zero hope for this until 60 or lower is tested multiple times and it then manages to trade above the monthly 20ema again.
BabaWeekly volume inflow last week was enormous, add to that you have a bullish engulfing at the bottom of a falling wedge and its a nice setup to belong here into Qt2.
Weekly MACD flipping over bullish also
The move should be 30% upon wedge breakout, which would put Ali baba at 100 by mid spring.
My targets are
77
90
103
$BABA, Could it be main investment opportunity of 2024 ? With Alibaba trading at a depressed valuation, is this a compelling buying opportunity? While the current price presents an attractive entry point, it's essential to conduct a thorough analysis before making any investment decisions. I'll be employing the EW 2.0 model to assess the company's historical price movement and identify potential buying signals.
